Feryomerṭ ferḳlogṭ : from the opera Dr. Almasada

by A. Goldfaden. For violin arr. by Herman Fiedler

Feryomerṭ ferḳlogṭ. The "wandering jew" : from the opera Dr. Almasada

by A. Goldfaden. For piano arr. by Herman Fiedler

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Consistency of Concave Regression with an Application to Current-Status Data

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of a concave regression function F. We show that the supremum distance between the least square s estimatorand F on a compact interval is typically of order(log(n)/n)2/5. This entails rates of convergence for the estimator’s derivative. Moreover, we discuss the impact of additional constraints on F such as monotonicity and pointwise bounds. Then we apply these results to the analysis of current status data, where the distribution function of the event times is assumed to be concave.

Directional statistics: introduction

In many of the natural and physical sciences, measurements are directions, either in two or three dimensions. The analysis of directional data relies on specific statistical models and procedures, which differ from the usual models and methodologies of Cartesian data. This chapter briefly introduces statistical models and inference for this type of data. The basic von Mises-Fisher distribution is introduced and nonparametric methods such as goodness-of-fit tests are presented. Further references are given for exploring related topics such as correlation and regression.

Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study.

BACKGROUND In an effort to reduce firearm mortality rates in the USA, US states have enacted a range of firearm laws to either strengthen or deregulate the existing main federal gun control law, the Brady Law. We set out to determine the independent association of different firearm laws with overall firearm mortality, homicide firearm mortality, and suicide firearm mortality across all US states. We also projected the potential reduction of firearm mortality if the three most strongly associated firearm laws were enacted at the federal level. METHODS We constructed a cross-sectional, state-level dataset from Nov 1, 2014, to May 15, 2015, using counts of firearm-related deaths in each US state for the years 2008-10 (stratified by intent [homicide and suicide]) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, data about 25 firearm state laws implemented in 2009, and state-specific characteristics such as firearm ownership for 2013, firearm export rates, and non-firearm homicide rates for 2009, and unemployment rates for 2010. Our primary outcome measure was overall firearm-related mortality per 100 000 people in the USA in 2010. We used Poisson regression with robust variances to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs. FINDINGS 31 672 firearm-related deaths occurred in 2010 in the USA (10·1 per 100 000 people; mean state-specific count 631·5 [SD 629·1]). Of 25 firearm laws, nine were associated with reduced firearm mortality, nine were associated with increased firearm mortality, and seven had an inconclusive association. After adjustment for relevant covariates, the three state laws most strongly associated with reduced overall firearm mortality were universal background checks for firearm purchase (multivariable IRR 0·39 [95% CI 0·23-0·67]; p=0·001), ammunition background checks (0·18 [0·09-0·36]; p<0·0001), and identification requirement for firearms (0·16 [0·09-0·29]; p<0·0001). Projected federal-level implementation of universal background checks for firearm purchase could reduce national firearm mortality from 10·35 to 4·46 deaths per 100 000 people, background checks for ammunition purchase could reduce it to 1·99 per 100 000, and firearm identification to 1·81 per 100 000. INTERPRETATION Very few of the existing state-specific firearm laws are associated with reduced firearm mortality, and this evidence underscores the importance of focusing on relevant and effective firearms legislation. Implementation of universal background checks for the purchase of firearms or ammunition, and firearm identification nationally could substantially reduce firearm mortality in the USA. FUNDING None.

Cause-Specific Long-Term Mortality in Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Switzerland: A Population Based Study.

Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year- and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3'965 survivors and 49'704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF TESTOSTERONE ON THE QUANTITATIVE MAINTENANCE OF SPERMATOGENESIS IN THE HYPOPHYSECTOMIZED ADULT RAT (PHARMACOKINETICS, MORPHOMETRY, STATISTICS)

Administration of gonadotropins or testosterone (T) will maintain qualitatively normal spermatogenesis and fertility in hypophysectomized (APX) rats. However, quantitative maintenance of the spermatogenic process in APX rats treated with T alone or in combination with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) has not been demonstrated. Studies reported here were conducted to determine whether it would be possible to increase intratesticular testosterone (ITT) levels in APX rats to those found in normal animals by administration of appropriate amounts of testosterone propionate (TP) and if under these conditions spermatogenesis can be maintained quantitatively. Quantitative analysis of spermatogenesis was performed on stages VI and VII of the spermatogenic cycle utilizing criteria of Leblond and Clermont (1952) all cell types were enumerated. In a series of experiments designed to investigate the effects of T on spermatogenesis, TP was administered to 60 day old APX rats twice daily for 30 days in doses ranging from 0.6 to 15 mg/day or from 0.6 to 6.0 mg/day in combination with FSH. The results of this study demonstrate that the efficiency of transformation of type A to type B spermatogonia and the efficacy of the meiotic prophase are related to ITT levels, and that quantitatively normal completion of the reduction division requires normal ITT levels. The ratio of spermatids to spermatocytes in the vehicle-treated APX rats was 1:1.38; in the APX rats treated with 15 mg of TP it was 1:4.0 (the theoretically expected number). This study is probably the first to demonstrate: (1) the pharmacokinetics of TP, (2) the profile and quantity of T-immunoactivity in both serum and testicular tissue of APX and IC rats as well as APX rats treated with TP alone or in combination with FSH, (3) the direct correlation of serum T and ITT levels in treated APX rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001) as well as in the IC rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), (4) the significant increase in the number of Type B spermatogonia, preleptotene and pachytene spermatocytes and round spermatids in TP-treated APX rats, (5) the correlation of the number of round spermatids formed in IC rats to ITT levels (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), and (6) the correlation of the quantitative maintenance of spermatogenesis with ITT levels (r = 0.7, p < 0.001) in the testes of TP-treated APX rats. These results provide direct experimental evidence for the key role of T in the spermatogenic process. ^