Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialised 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmosphere control simulation (AGCM) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Results indicated that the coupled configuration (CGCM) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3-5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feed back on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.

Transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies

The transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes is investigated using a three-layer QG model coupled in perpetual winter conditions to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic. The SST anomalies are diagnosed from a coupled run and prescribed as initial conditions, but are free to evolve. The initial evolution of the atmospheric response is similar to that obtained with a prescribed SST anomaly, starting as a quasi-linear baroclinic and then quickly evolving into a growing equivalent barotropic one. Because of the heat flux damping, the SST anomaly amplitude slowly decreases, albeit with little change in pattern. Correspondingly, the atmospheric response only increases until it reaches a maximum amplitude after about 1–3.5 months, depending on the SST anomaly considered. The response is similar to that at equilibrium in the fixed SST case, but it is 1.5–2 times smaller, and then slowly decays away.

Mixed layer lateral eddy fluxes mediated by air-sea interaction

The modulation of air–sea heat fluxes by geostrophic eddies due to the stirring of temperature at the sea surface is discussed and quantified. It is argued that the damping of eddy temperature variance by such air–sea fluxes enhances the dissipation of surface temperature fields. Depending on the time scale of damping relative to that of the eddying motions, surface eddy diffusivities can be significantly enhanced over interior values. The issues are explored and quantified in a controlled setting by driving a tracer field, a proxy for sea surface temperature, with surface altimetric observations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) of the Southern Ocean. A new, tracer-based diagnostic of eddy diffusivity is introduced, which is related to the Nakamura effective diffusivity. Using this, the mixed layer lateral eddy diffusivities associated with (i) eddy stirring and small-scale mixing and (ii) surface damping by air–sea interaction is quantified. In the ACC, a diffusivity associated with surface damping of a comparable magnitude to that associated with eddy stirring (;500 m2 s21) is found. In frontal regions prevalent in the ACC, an augmentation of surface lateral eddy diffusivities of this magnitude is equivalent to an air–sea flux of 100 W m22 acting over a mixed layer depth of 100 m, a very significant effect. Finally, the implications for other tracer fields such as salinity, dissolved gases, and chlorophyll are discussed. Different tracers are found to have surface eddy diffusivities that differ significantly in magnitude.

The development of time-based prospective memory in childhood: the role of working memory updating

This large-scale study examined the development of time-based prospective memory (PM) across childhood and the roles that working memory updating and time monitoring play in driving age effects in PM performance. One hundred and ninety-seven children aged 5 to 14 years completed a time-based PM task where working memory updating load was manipulated within individuals using a dual task design. Results revealed age-related increases in PM performance across childhood. Working memory updating load had a negative impact on PM performance and monitoring behavior in older children, but this effect was smaller in younger children. Moreover, the frequency as well as the pattern of time monitoring predicted children’s PM performance. Our interpretation of these results is that processes involved in children’s PM may show a qualitative shift over development from simple, nonstrategic monitoring behavior to more strategic monitoring based on internal temporal models that rely specifically on working memory updating resources. We discuss this interpretation with regard to possible trade-off effects in younger children as well as alternative accounts.

The impact of cognitive control on children's goal monitoring in a time-based prospective memory task

The present study investigated whether developmental changes in cognitive control may underlie improvements of time-based prospective memory. Five-, 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds (N = 166) completed a driving simulation task (ongoing task) in which they had to refuel their vehicle at specific points in time (PM task). The availability of cognitive control resources was experimentally manipulated by imposing a secondary task that required divided attention. Children completed the driving simulation task both in a full attention condition and a divided attention condition where they had to carry out a secondary task. Results revealed that older children performed better than younger children on the ongoing task and PM task. Children performed worse on the ongoing and PM tasks in the divided attention condition compared to the full attention condition. With respect to time monitoring in the final interval prior to the PM target, divided attention interacted with age such that older children’s time monitoring was more negatively affected by the secondary task compared to younger children. Results are discussed in terms of developmental shifts from reactive to proactive monitoring strategies.

Resonance response of electrorheological fluids in vertical oscillation squeeze flow

The resonance effect of microcrystalline cellulose/castor oil electrorheological (ER) suspensions was studied in a compressed oscillatory squeeze flow under external electric fields. The resonance frequency first increases linearly with increasing external held, and then shift to high-field plateau. The amplitudes of resonance peak increase sharply with the applied fields in the range of 0.17-1.67kV/mm. The phase difference of the reduced displacement relative to the excitation force inverses in the case of resonance. A viscoelasticity model of the ER suspensions, which offers both the equivalent stiffness and the viscous damping, should be responsible for the appearance of resonance. The influence of the electric field on the resonance frequency and the resonance hump is consistent qualitatively with the interpretation of our proposed model. Storage modulus G' was presented for the purpose of investigating this influence.

Active control of rod vibrations using magnetic fluids

The use of magnetic fluids in controlling rod vibrations is investigated. A prototype of ferrofluid vibration damper is designed and experimentally set up based on the principle of anti-resonance. The efficiency of this damping system is verified in experiments and well explained with classical equations of motion. The improvement of the present system towards active control of rod vibration is also discussed.

Contract cheating & the market in essays

We conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by University students. We investigate student demand for essays, using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential Holt-Laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences. Students stated willingness to participate in the essay market, and their valuation of purchased essays, vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment. Risk preferring students, those working in a non-native language, and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more. Purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

Multiple, discrete arcs on sunward convecting field lines in the 14-15 MLT region

Ionospheric plasma flow measurements and simultaneous observations of thin (∼0.2° invariant latitude (ILAT)), multiple, longitudinally extended auroral arcs of transient nature within 74°-76° ILAT and 1030-1130 UT (∼14-15 MLT) on January 12, 1989, are reported. The auroral structures appeared within the luminous belt of strong 630.0-nm emissions located predominantly on sunward convecting field lines equatorward of the convection reversal boundary as identified by the European Incoherent Scatter UHF radar. The events occurred during a period of several hours quasi-steady solar wind speed (∼ 700 km s−1) and a radially orientated interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with a weak northward tilt (IMF Bz>0). These typical dayside auroral features are related to previous studies of auroral activity related to the upward region 1 current in the postnoon sector. The discrete auroral events presented here may result from magnetosheath plasma injections into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and an associated dynamo mechanism. An alternative explanation invokes kinetic Alfvén waves, triggered either by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the inner (or outer) edge of the LLBL or by pressure pulse induced magnetopause surface waves.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

Non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions observed using EISCAT

Recent observations from the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar have revealed bursts of poleward ion flow in the dayside auroral ionosphere which are consistent with the ionospheric signature of flux transfer events at the magnetopause. These bursts frequently contain ion drifts which exceed the neutral thermal speed and, because the neutral thermospheric wind is incapable of responding sufficiently rapidly, toroidal, non-Maxwellian ion velocity distributions are expected. The EISCAT observations are made with high time resolution (15 seconds) and at a large angle to the geomagnetic field (73.5°), allowing the non-Maxwellian nature of the distribution to be observed remotely for the first time. The observed features are also strongly suggestive of a toroidal distribution: characteristic spectral shape, increased scattered power (both consistent with reduced Landau damping and enhanced electric field fluctuations) and excessively high line-of-sight ion temperatures deduced if a Maxwellian distribution is assumed. These remote sensing observations allow the evolution of the distributions to be observed. They are found to be non-Maxwellian whenever the ion drift exceeds the neutral thermal speed, indicating that such distributions can exist over the time scale of the flow burst events (several minutes).

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Computerised therapies for anxiety and depression in children and young people: a systematic review and meta-anaylsis

One quarter of children and young people (CYP) experience anxiety and/or depression before adulthood, but treatment is sometimes unavailable or inadequate. Self-help interventions may have a role in augmenting treatment and this work aimed to systematically review the evidence for computerised anxiety and depression interventions in CYP aged 5–25 years old. Databases were searched for randomised controlled trials and 27 studies were identified. For young people (12–25 years) with risk of diagnosed anxiety disorders or depression, computerised CBT (cCBT) had positive effects for symptoms of anxiety (SMD −0.77, 95% CI −1.45 to −0.09, k = 6, N = 220) and depression (SMD −0.62, 95% CI −1.13 to −0.11, k = 7, N = 279). In a general population study of young people, there were small positive effects for anxiety (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1273) and depression (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1280). There was uncertainty around the effectiveness of cCBT in children (5–11 years). Evidence for other computerised interventions was sparse and inconclusive. Computerised CBT has potential for treating and preventing anxiety and depression in clinical and general populations of young people. Further program development and research is required to extend its use and establish its benefit in children.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.