Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Innovative telemedicine and mobile phone technology in the management of diabetic foot ulcers

Background Diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are a leading cause of diabetes-related hospitalisation and can be costly to manage without access to appropriate expert care. Within Queensland and indeed across many parts of Australia, there is an inequality in accessing specialist services for individuals with DFU. Recent National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) diabetic foot guidelines recommend remote expert consultation with digital imaging should be made available to people with DFU to improve their clinical outcomes. Telemedicine appears to show promise in improving access to diabetic foot specialist services; however diabetic foot telemedicine models to date have relied upon videoconferencing, store and forward technology and/or customised appliances to obtain digital imagery which all require either expensive infrastructure or a timed reply to the request for advice. Whilst mobile phone advice services have been used with success in general diabetes management and telehealth services have improved diabetic foot outcomes, the rapid emergence in the use of mobile phones has established a need to review the role that various forms of telemedicine play in the management of DFU. The aim of this paper is to review traditional telemedicine modalities that have been used in the management of DFU and to compare that to new and innovative technology that are emerging. Process Studies investigating the management of DFU using various forms of telemedicine interventions will be included in this review. They include the use of videoconferencing technology, hand held digital still photography purpose built imaging devices and mobile phone imagery. Electronic databases (Pubmed, Medline and CINAHL) will be searched using broad MeSH terms and keywords that cover the intended area of interest. Findings It is anticipated that the results of this narrative review will provide delegates of the 2015 Australasian Podiatry Conference an insight into the types of emerging innovative diagnostic telemedicine technologies in the management of DFU against the backdrop of traditional and evidence based modalities. It is anticipated that the findings will drive further research in the area of mobile phone imagery and innovation in the management of DFU.

Reconstructing identity of older people in using day care services in Taiwan: A grounded theory study

Adult day care centers provide a means whereby frail or disabled older people can remain living at home particularly when their family care-givers engage in waged work. In Taiwan, adult day care services appear to meet the cultural needs of both older people and their families for whom filial care is vital. Little research attention has been paid to the use of day care services in Taiwan, the uptake rate of which is low. This grounded theory study explored the ways in which older people and family care-givers construct meanings around the use of day care services in Taiwan. The research methodology drew on the theoretical tenets of symbolic interactionism and methods were informed by the grounded theory. In-depth interviews with 30 participants were undertaken. Reconstructing identity in a shifting world is the core category of the study and reflects a process of reframing whereby older people came to new definitions of social responsibility and independence within the context of the day care center. The implications of the findings is that the older people, rather than seeking to be relieved of social responsibilities, worked very hard to frame and reframe a social role. Rather than letting the institutions undermine or disrupt their identity, the older people worked to actively negotiate and redefine the meaning of self. Thus, although reluctant to come to use the services at the outset, they found a way to manage their lives independently. Social roles and responsibilities as older parents were retained. This study explored the process of meaning construction of day care use and the ways in which this process entailed a reconstruction of the identities of the participants. The evidence from this study underlines the importance of recognizing and acknowledging subjectively conceived identities as work that older people undertake, when in care, to render their lives meaningful.

Sustainable housing development through integrated strata utility and transport infrastructure

A comprehensive study was conducted on potential systems of integrated building utilities and transport power solutions that can simultaneously contain rising electricity, hot water and personal transport costs for apartment residents. The research developed the Commuter Energy and Building Utilities System (CEBUS) and quantified the economic, social and environmental benefits of incorporating such a system in future apartment developments. A decision support tool was produced to assist the exploration of the CEBUS design variants. A set of implementation guidelines for CEBUS was also developed for the property development industry.

Reduced visual function and its association with physical functioning in the Finnish adult population : Prevalence, causes, and need for eye care services

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of reduced visual acuity, major chronic eye diseases, and subsequent need for eye care services in the Finnish adult population comprising persons aged 30 years and older. In addition, we analyzed the effect of decreased vision on functioning and need for assistance using the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a framework. The study was based on the Health 2000 health examination survey, a nationally representative population-based comprehensive survey of health and functional capacity carried out in 2000 to 2001 in Finland. The study sample representing the Finnish population aged 30 years and older was drawn by a two-stage stratified cluster sampling. The Health 2000 survey included a home interview and a comprehensive health examination conducted at a nearby screening center. If the invited participants did not attend, an abridged examination was conducted at home or in an institution. Based on our finding in participants, the great majority (96%) of Finnish adults had at least moderate visual acuity (VA ≥ 0.5) with current refraction correction, if any. However, in the age group 75–84 years the prevalence decreased to 81%, and after 85 years to 46%. In the population aged 30 years and older, the prevalence of habitual visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) was 1.6%, and 0.5% were blind (VA < 0.1). The prevalence of visual impairment increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), and after the age of 65 years the increase was sharp. Visual impairment was equally common for both sexes (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.82 – 1.74). Based on self-reported and/or register-based data, the estimated total prevalences of cataract, glaucoma, age-related maculopathy (ARM), and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the study population were 10%, 5%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. The prevalence of all of these chronic eye diseases increased with age (p < 0.001). Cataract and glaucoma were more common in women than in men (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26 – 1.91 and OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.98, respectively). The most prevalent eye diseases in people with visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) were ARM (37%), unoperated cataract (27%), glaucoma (22%), and DR (7%). One-half (58%) of visually impaired people had had a vision examination during the past five years, and 79% had received some vision rehabilitation services, mainly in the form of spectacles (70%). Only one-third (31%) had received formal low vision rehabilitation (i.e., fitting of low vision aids, receiving patient education, training for orientation and mobility, training for activities of daily living (ADL), or consultation with a social worker). People with low vision (VA 0.1 – 0.25) were less likely to have received formal low vision rehabilitation, magnifying glasses, or other low vision aids than blind people (VA < 0.1). Furthermore, low cognitive capacity and living in an institution were associated with limited use of vision rehabilitation services. Of the visually impaired living in the community, 71% reported a need for assistance and 24% had an unmet need for assistance in everyday activities. Prevalence of ADL, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility increased with decreasing VA (p < 0.001). Visually impaired persons (VA ≤ 0.25) were four times more likely to have ADL disabilities than those with good VA (VA ≥ 0.8) after adjustment for sociodemographic and behavioral factors and chronic conditions (OR 4.36, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78). Limitations in IADL and measured mobility were five times as likely (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.38 – 9.76 and OR 5.37, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78, respectively) and self-reported mobility limitations were three times as likely (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.67 – 9.63) as in persons with good VA. The high prevalence of age-related eye diseases and subsequent visual impairment in the fastest growing segment of the population will result in a substantial increase in the demand for eye care services in the future. Many of the visually impaired, especially older persons with decreased cognitive capacity or living in an institution, have not had a recent vision examination and lack adequate low vision rehabilitation. This highlights the need for regular evaluation of visual function in the elderly and an active dissemination of information about rehabilitation services. Decreased VA is strongly associated with functional limitations, and even a slight decrease in VA was found to be associated with limited functioning. Thus, continuous efforts are needed to identify and treat eye diseases to maintain patients’ quality of life and to alleviate the social and economic burden of serious eye diseases.

Knowledge unlatched : A global library consortium model for funding Open Access scholarly books

Specialist scholarly books, including monographs, allow researchers to present their work, pose questions and to test and extend areas of theory through long-form writing. In spite of the fact that research communities all over the world value monographs and depend heavily on them as a requirement of tenure and promotion in many disciplines, sales of this kind of book are in free fall, with some estimates suggesting declines of as much as 90% over twenty years (Willinsky 2006). Cashstrapped monograph publishers have found themselves caught in a negative cycle of increasing prices and falling sales, with few resources left to support experimentation, business model innovation or engagement with digital technology and Open Access (OA). This chapter considers an important attempt to tackle failing markets for scholarly monographs, and to enable the wider adoption of OA licenses for book-length works: the 2012 – 2014 Knowledge Unlatched pilot. Knowledge Unlatched is a bold attempt to reconfigure the market for specialist scholarly books: moving it beyond the sale of ‘content’ towards a model that supports the services valued by scholarly and wider communities in the context of digital possibility. Its success has powerful implications for the way we understand copyright’s role in the creative industries, and the potential for established institutions and infrastructure to support the open and networked dynamics of a digital age.

A combinatorial procurement auction for QoS-aware web services

Business processes and application functionality are becoming available as internal web services inside enterprise boundaries as well as becoming available as commercial web services from enterprise solution vendors and web services marketplaces. Typically there are multiple web service providers offering services capable of fulfilling a particular functionality, although with different Quality of Service (QoS). Dynamic creation of business processes requires composing an appropriate set of web services that best suit the current need. This paper presents a novel combinatorial auction approach to QoS aware dynamic web services composition. Such an approach would enable not only stand-alone web services but also composite web services to be a part of a business process. The combinatorial auction leads to an integer programming formulation for the web services composition problem. An important feature of the model is the incorporation of service level agreements. We describe a software tool QWESC for QoS-aware web services composition based on the proposed approach.

Grand challenges for public health

What is the future for public health in the twenty-first century? Can we glean an idea about the future of public health from its past? As Winston Churchill once said: ‘[T]he further backward you look, the further forward you can see.’ What can we see in the history of public health that gives us an idea of where public health might be headed in the future? (Gruszin et al. 2012). In the twentieth century there was substantial progress in public health in Australia. These improvements were brought about through a number of factors. In part, improvements were due to increasing knowledge about the natural history of disease and its treatment. Added to this knowledge was a shifting focus from legislative measures to protect health, to the emergence of improved promotion and prevention strategies, and a general improvement in social and economic conditions for people living in countries such as Australia. Gruszin et al. (2012) consider the range of social and economic reforms of the twentieth century as the most important determinants of the public’s health at the start of the twenty-first century (Gruszin et al. 2012 p 201). The same could not, however, be said for second or third world countries, many of whom have the most fundamental of sanitary and health protection issues still to deal with. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa and in Russia the decline in life expectancy can be said to be related to a range of interconnected factors. In Russia, issues such as alcoholism, violence, suicide, accidents and cardiovascular disease could be contributing to the falling life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007). In sub-Saharan Africa, a range of factors, such as HIV/AIDS, poverty, malaria, tuberculosis, undernutrition, totally inadequate infrastructure, gender inequality, conflict and violence, political taboos and a complete lack of political will, have all contributed to a dramatic drop in life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007).

A journey access tool to facilitate mobility-related access for people with disabilities in low and middle income countries

People with disabilities (PWD) experience difficulties in accessing the transport system (including both infrastructure and services) to meet their needs for health care, employment and other activities. Our research shows that lack of access to the journeys needed for these purposes is a more significant barrier in low and middle income countries than in high income countries, and results in inadequate health care, rehabilitation and access to education and employment. At the same time, the existing transport system in low and middle income countries presents much higher road crash risks than in high income countries. By combining the principles and methods of Road Safety Audit and disability access, and adapting these Western approaches to a low/middle income country context, we have worked with Handicap International Cambodia to develop a Journey Access Tool (JAT) for use by disabled peoples’ organisations (DPOs), people with a disability and other key stakeholders. A key element of the approach is that it involves the participation of PWD on the journeys that they need to take, and it identifies infrastructure and service improvements that should be prioritised in order to facilitate access to these journeys. The JAT has been piloted in Cambodia with a range of PWD. This presentation will outline the design of the JAT and the results of the pilot studies. The information gained thus far strongly suggests that the JAT is a valuable and cost-effective approach that can be used by DPOs and professionals to identify barriers to access and prioritise the steps needed to address them.

Cost Sharing Mechanisms for Business Clusters with Strategic Firms

A business cluster is a co-located group of micro, small, medium scale enterprises. Such firms can benefit significantly from their co-location through shared infrastructure and shared services. Cost sharing becomes an important issue in such sharing arrangements especially when the firms exhibit strategic behavior. There are many cost sharing methods and mechanisms proposed in the literature based on game theoretic foundations. These mechanisms satisfy a variety of efficiency and fairness properties such as allocative efficiency, budget balance, individual rationality, consumer sovereignty, strategyproofness, and group strategyproofness. In this paper, we motivate the problem of cost sharing in a business cluster with strategic firms and illustrate different cost sharing mechanisms through the example of a cluster of firms sharing a logistics service. Next we look into the problem of a business cluster sharing ICT (information and communication technologies) infrastructure and explore the use of cost sharing mechanisms.

Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as a useful decision-support tool for ecosystem management. However, the extent to which economic valuation of ecosystem services is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of ecosystem services economic valuation in support of coastal and marine management are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across decision-makers groups. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use it. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent’s use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other existing works, and are instructive to reflect on the issue of the usefulness of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also confirm that the survey-based approach developed in this application represents a sound strategy to examine this issue at various scales and management levels.

Honesty in the provision of expert services: The effect of naturalistic framings and participants' professions

This thesis studies the incentives and behaviour of providers of expert services, like doctors, financial advisors and mechanics. The focus is in particular on provision of health care using a series of credence goods experiments conducted to investigate undertreatment, overtreatment and overcharging in a medical context. The findings of study one suggest that a medical framing compared to a neutral framing significantly increases pro-social behaviour for standard participants in economic experiments. Study two compares the behaviour of medical practitioners - mainly doctors - to students. It is observed that medical doctors’ undertreat and overcharge significantly less, but at the same time overtreat significantly more than students. The final study compares behaviours for other experts - accountants, engineers and lawyers - using experimental framings drawn from the respective contexts and students from the respective faculties as participants in credence goods experiments.

How do construction firms learn on collaborative infrastructure projects?

Construction firms that employ collaborative procurement approaches develop operating routines through joint learning so as to improve infrastructure project performance. This paper reports a study based on a survey sample of 320 construction practitioners which were involved in collaborative infrastructure delivery in Australia. The study developed valid and reliable scales for measuring collaborative learning capability (CLC), and used the scales to evaluate the CLC of contractor and consultant firms within the sample. The evaluation suggests that whilst these firms explore knowledge from both internal and external sources, transform both explicit and tacit knowledge, and apply and internalise new knowledge, they can improve the extent to which these routines are applied to optimise project performance.

Metrology of gaseous air pollutants

The need for mutual recognition of accurate measurement results made by competent laboratories has been very widely accepted at the international level e.g., at the World Trade Organization. A partial solution to the problem was made by the International Committee for Weights and Measures (CIPM) in setting up the Mutual Recognition Arrangement (CIPM MRA), which was signed by National Metrology Institutes (NMI) around the world. The core idea of the CIPM MRA is to have global arrangements for the mutual acceptance of the calibration certificates of National Metrology Institutes. The CIPM MRA covers all the fields of science and technology for which NMIs have their national standards. The infrastructure for the metrology of the gaseous compounds carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3) has been constructed at the national level at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The calibration laboratory at the FMI was constructed for providing calibration services for air quality measurements and to fulfil the requirements of a metrology laboratory. The laboratory successfully participated, with good results, in the first comparison project, which was aimed at defining the state of the art in the preparation and analysis of the gas standards used by European metrology institutes and calibration laboratories in the field of air quality. To confirm the competence of the laboratory, the international external surveillance study was conducted at the laboratory. Based on the evidence, the Centre for Metrology and Accreditation (MIKES) designated the calibration laboratory at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) as a National Standard Laboratory in the field of air quality. With this designation, the MIKES-FMI Standards Laboratory became a member of CIPM MRA, and Finland was brought into the internationally-accepted forum in the field of gas metrology. The concept of ‘once measured - everywhere accepted’ is the leading theme of the CIPM MRA. The calibration service of the MIKES-FMI Standards Laboratory realizes the SI traceability system for the gas components, and is constructed to enable it to meet the requirements of the European air quality directives. In addition, all the relevant uncertainty sources that influence the measurement results have been evaluated, and the uncertainty budgets for the measurement results have been created.