Geostatistical Tools for Validation of Satellite and NWP Model Rainfall

Field meeting: Romney Marsh - its churches and geology, 22 May 2004

The building fabrics of seven churches situated either on Romney Marsh or the marshland fringe were examined briefly. These revealed important differences in the relative abundance of the two principal building stones. Ragstones from the Hythe Formation occurred more frequently in the northeast, while sandstones from the Ashdown 'Beds' were more common in the west. In the Romney Marsh area, both stones were quarried mainly from their adjoining coastlines, with, up to the thirteenth century, opportunist collection of beach boulders generally preceding the exploitation or hewn stone. Other building stones, possible distribution routes and impacts of the quarrying upon coastline development were also discussed.

Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

The three-dimensional vortical nature of atmospheric and oceanic turbulent flows

Using a novel numerical method at unprecedented resolution, we demonstrate that structures of small to intermediate scale in rotating, stratified flows are intrinsically three-dimensional. Such flows are characterized by vortices (spinning volumes of fluid), regions of large vorticity gradients, and filamentary structures at all scales. It is found that such structures have predominantly three-dimensional dynamics below a horizontal scale LLR, where LR is the so-called Rossby radius of deformation, equal to the characteristic vertical scale of the fluid H divided by the ratio of the rotational and buoyancy frequencies f/N. The breakdown of two-dimensional dynamics at these scales is attributed to the so-called "tall-column instability" [D. G. Dritschel and M. de la Torre Juárez, J. Fluid. Mech. 328, 129 (1996)], which is active on columnar vortices that are tall after scaling by f/N, or, equivalently, that are narrow compared with LR. Moreover, this instability eventually leads to a simple relationship between typical vertical and horizontal scales: for each vertical wave number (apart from the vertically averaged, barotropic component of the flow) the average horizontal wave number is equal to f/N times the vertical wave number. The practical implication is that three-dimensional modeling is essential to capture the behavior of rotating, stratified fluids. Two-dimensional models are not valid for scales below LR. ©1999 American Institute of Physics.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

The diurnal cycle of convection and atmospheric tides in an aquaplanet

The diurnal cycle of tropical convection and its relationship to the atmospheric tides is investigated using an aquaplanet GCM. The diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics of precipitation are both found to contribute significantly to the total diurnal variability of precipitation in the model, which is broadly consistent with observations of the diurnal cycle of convection over the open ocean. The semidiurnal tide is found to be the dominant forcing for the semidiurnal harmonic of precipitation. In contrast the diurnal tide plays only a small role in forcing the diurnal harmonic of precipitation, which is dominated by the variations in shortwave and longwave heating. In both the diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics, the feedback onto the convection by the humidity tendencies due to the convection is found to be important in determining the phase of the harmonics. Further experiments show that the diurnal cycle of precipitation is sensitive to the choice of closure in the convection scheme. While the surface pressure signal of the simulated atmospheric tides in the model agree well with both theory and observations in their magnitude and phase, sensitivity experiments suggest that the role of the stratospheric ozone in forcing the semidiurnal tide is much reduced compared to theoretical predictions. Furthermore, the influence of the cloud radiative effects seems small. It is suggested that the radiative heating profile in the troposphere, associated primarily with the water vapor distribution, is more important than previously thought for driving the semidiurnal tide. However, this result may be sensitive to the vertical resolution and extent of the model.

The simulation of peak and delayed ENSO teleconnections

There is much evidence that El Niño and La Niña lead to significant atmospheric seasonal predictability across much of the globe. However, despite successful predictions of tropical Pacific SSTs, atmospheric seasonal forecasts have had limited success. This study investigates model errors in the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3) by analyzing composites of similar El Niño and La Niña events at their peak in December–January–February (DJF) and through their decay in March–April–May (MAM). The large-scale, tropical ENSO teleconnections are modeled accurately by HadAM3 during DJF but the strongest extratropical teleconnection, that in the North Pacific during winter, is modeled inaccurately. The Aleutian low is frequently observed to shift eastward during El Niño but the modeled response always consists of a deepening of the low without a shift. This is traced to small errors in the sensitivity of precipitation to SST in the tropical Pacific, which does not display enough variability so that the precipitation is always too high over the warmest SSTs. This error is reduced when vertical resolution is increased from 19 to 30 levels but enhanced horizontal resolution does not improve the simulation further. In MAM, following the peak of an El Niño or La Niña, atmospheric anomalies are observed to decay rapidly. The modeled ENSO response in DJF persists into MAM, making the extratropical anomalies in MAM too strong. This inaccuracy is again likely to be due to the high modeled sensitivity of tropical Pacific precipitation to SST, which is not significantly improved with enhanced vertical or horizontal resolution in MAM.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

An observing system simulation experiment to evaluate the scientific merit of wind and ozone measurements from the future SWIFT instrument

(from author) One of the first papers in the peer-review literature to discuss an OSSE to evaluate future wind observations in the stratosphere. Provides key evidence to justify the construction of the SWIFT instrument (currently planned to be built by the Canadian Space Agency for launch on ~ 2010).