Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Beyond compliance : project on an integrated systems approach for pest risk management in South East Asia

The Beyond Compliance project, which began in July 2011 with funding from the Standards and Trade Development Facility for 2 years, aims to enhance competency and confidence in the South East Asian sub-region by applying a Systems Approach for pest risk management. The Systems Approach involves the use of integrated measures, at least two of which are independent, that cumulatively reduce the risk of introducing exotic pests through trade. Although useful in circumstances where single measures are inappropriate or unavailable, the Systems Approach is inherently more complicated than single-measure approaches, which may inhibit its uptake. The project methodology is to take prototype decision-support tools, such as Control Point-Bayesian Networks (CP-BN), developed in recent plant health initiatives in other regions, including the European PRATIQUE project, and to refine them within this sub-regional context. Case studies of high-priority potential agricultural trade will be conducted by National Plant Protection Organizations of participating South East Asian countries in trials of the tools, before further modifications. Longer term outcomes may include: more robust pest risk management in the region (for exports and imports); greater inclusion of stakeholders in development of pest risk management plans; increased confidence in trade negotiations; and new opportunities for trade.

Beyond the modular film school : Australian film and television schools and their digital transitions

In this chapter we will describe the contemporary variety of practice-oriented training institutions in Australia. We will examine the different ways in which public and private providers are managing the challenges of digitization and convergence. We will consider the logics governing film education this mix of providers pulls into focus, and we will outline some of the challenges providers face in educating, (re)training, and preparing their graduates for life and work beyond the film school. These challenges highlight questions about the accountabilities and responsibilities of practice-oriented film education institutions. This chapter begins with an introductory section that outlines these logics and questions. It explores some of the tensions and dynamics within the spectrum of issues through which we can understand film schools. The chapter then goes on briefly to describe the multifaceted training landscape in Australia, before profiling the leading public provider, the Australian Film, Television and Radio School (AFTRS), as well as the other leading public providers the Victorian College of the Arts, and the Griffith Film School. It concludes with a short section on film education in primary and secondary schools as the education sector prepares for the implementation of a national curriculum in which ‘media arts’ has a new centrality.

Development of a children's acute cough specific quality of life questionnaire (Pac-Qol)

The high burden of parental concern in children with chronic cough has been well documented. Acute cough in children (lasting less than 2 weeks) also has a significant impact on families, reflected by the number of doctor visits for cough. Currently there is no validated acute cough specific quality of life (QOL) measure for children. The objective of this study is to develop and validate an acute cough specific QOL questionnaire (PAC-QOL) for paediatric use. Here we present our data on item selection. Methods Two independent focus groups were conducted to determine relevant items. Parents discussed the impact of their child’s current or previous episodes of acute cough on their child, themselves and their family functioning. Transcripts were analyzed to determine whether discussions had reached an item saturation point. Items were also compared against our previously validated parent-centred children’s chronic cough specific QOL questionnaire (PC-QOL), which was used as a model. The newly developed acute cough specific QOL questionnaire is designed to assess the level of frequency of parents’ feelings and worry related to their child’s acute cough, using a 24-h time-point reference. Results Newly identified acute cough specific items include parental worry around whether or not they should take their child to a doctor or emergency department, and frequency of seeking assistance from friends and family. Conclusions While there are similarities between items identified for both acute and chronic cough, there are distinct features. Further data will be collected for item reduction and validation of this children’s acute cough specific QOL questionnaire.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

Shoes that restrict metatarsophalangeal dorsiflexion cause proximal joint compensations

To describe barefoot, shod and in-shoe kinematics during stance phase of walking gait in a normal arched adult population. An equal sample of males and females (n = 24) was recruited. In order to quantify the effect of footwear independent of technical design features, an ASICS shoe (Onitsuka Tiger-Mexico 66, Japan) was used in this study. Markers were applied to three conditions; barefoot, shod, and in-shoe. The calibration markers were used to define static pose. The order of testing was randomised. Participants completed five trials in each condition. Kinematic data were captured using a 12 camera VICON MX40 motion capture system at 100 Hz and processed in Visual3D. A previously developed model was used to describe joint angles [1]. A univariate two-way ANOVA was used to identify any differences between the pairs of conditions. Post-hoc Sheffé tests were used to further interrogate the data for differences. At peak hallux dorsiflexion (Figure 1), during propulsion, the metatarsophalangeal joint (MPTJ) was significantly more dorsiflexed in the barefoot condition compared to the shod condition (p = 0.004). At the same gait event, the tibiocalcaneal joint (TCJ) was significantly more plantarflexed than both the shod and in-shoe conditions (p < 0.001), and the tarsometatarsal joint (TMTJ) was significantly less dorsiflexed in the barefoot condition compared to the shod and in-shoe conditions (p < 0.001). The findings of the current study demonstrate that footwear has significant effects on sagittal plane MPTJ joint dorsiflexion at peak hallux dorsiflexion, which results in compensations at proximal foot joints.

Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

A biological staging model for operable non-small cell lung cancer

Background Currently the best prognostic index for operable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the TNM staging system. Molecular biology holds the promise of predicting outcome for the individual patient and identifying novel therapeutic targets. Angiogenesis, matrix metalloproteinases (MMP)-2 and -9, and the erb/HER type I tyrosine kinase receptors are all implicated in the pathogenesis of NSCLC. Methods A retrospective analysis of 167 patients with resected stage I-IIIa NSCLC and >60 days postoperative survival with a minimum follow up of 2 years was undertaken. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed on paraffin embedded sections for the microvessel marker CD34, MMP-2 and MMP-9, EGFR, and c-erbB-2 to evaluate the relationships between and impact on survival of these molecular markers. Results Tumour cell MMP-9 (HR 1.91 (1.23-2.97)), a high microvessel count (HR 1.97 (1.28-3.03)), and stage (stage II HR 1.44 (0.87-2.40), stage IIIa HR 2.21 (1.31-3.74)) were independent prognostic factors. Patients with a high microvessel count and tumour cell MMP-9 expression had a worse outcome than cases with only one (HR 1.68 (1.04-2.73)) or neither (HR 4.43 (2.29-8.57)) of these markers. EGFR expression correlated with tumour cell MMP-9 expression (p<0.001). Immunoreactivity for both of these factors within the same tumour was associated with a poor prognosis (HR 2.22 (1.45-3.41)). Conclusion Angiogenesis, EGFR, and MMP-9 expression provide prognostic information independent of TNM stage, allowing a more accurate outcome prediction for the individual patient. The development of novel anti-angiogenic agents, EGFR targeted therapies, and MMP inhibitors suggests that target specific adjuvant treatments may become a therapeutic option in patients with resected NSCLC.