Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Endosymbiotic bacteria nodulating a new endemic lupine Lupinus mariae-josephi from alkaline soils in Eastern Spain represent a new lineage within the Bradyrhizobium genus

Lupinus mariae-josephi is a recently described endemic Lupinus species from a small area in Eastern Spain where it thrives in soils with active lime and high pH. The L. mariae-josephi root symbionts were shown to be very slow-growing bacteria with different phenotypic and symbiotic characteristics from those of Bradyrhizobium strains nodulating other Lupinus. Their phylogenetic status was examined by multilocus sequence analyses of four housekeeping genes (16S rRNA, glnII, recA, and atpD) and showed the existence of a distinct evolutionary lineage for L. mariae-josephi that also included Bradyrhizobium jicamae. Within this lineage, the tested isolates clustered in three different sub-groups that might correspond to novel sister Bradyrhizobium species. These core gene analyses consistently showed that all the endosymbiotic bacteria isolated from other Lupinus species of the Iberian Peninsula were related to strains of the B. canariense or B. japonicum lineages and were separate from the L. mariae-josephi isolates. Phylogenetic analysis based on nodC symbiotic gene sequences showed that L. mariae-josephi bacteria also constituted a new symbiotic lineage distant from those previously defined in the genus Bradyrhizobium. In contrast, the nodC genes of isolates from other Lupinus spp. from the Iberian Peninsula were again clearly related to the B. canariense and B. japonicum bv. genistearum lineages. Speciation of L. mariae-josephi bradyrhizobia may result from the colonization of a singular habitat by their unique legume host.

Pinus uncinata Ramond ex DC.: Conservation and proposal of management at its southwestern limit of distribution (Castillo de Vinuesa, Soria, Spain)

Pinus uncinata forms forests in the centre and southwest of the Alps and in the subalpine Pyrenees (at around 1700 – 2600 m) (Costa Tenorio et al., 1997). The species reaches the southwestern limit of its distribution at the top of Mount Castillo de Vinuesa (Soria, Spain). The small population on this mountain occupies just 66 ha, but is very important from a geobotanical viewpoint since it is just one of two populations (the other being in the Sierra de Gúdar range in Teruel, Spain) isolated from the main area where the species is found in the Iberian Peninsula (The Pyrenees)

Differences into HT and HTO concentrations in air into the Western Mediterranean Basin and Continental Europe and Safety Related Issues.

Real time Tritium concentrations in air in two chemical forms, HT and HTO, coming from an ITER-like fusion reactor as source were coupled the European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) numerical model with the Lagrangian Atmospheric-particle dispersion model FLEXPART. This tool was analyzed in nominal tritium discharge operational reference and selected incidental conditions affecting the Western Mediterranean Basin during 45 days during summer 2010 together with surface “wind observations” or weather data based in real hourly observations of wind direction and velocity providing a real approximation of the tritium behavior after the release to the atmosphere from a fusion reactor. From comparison with NORMTRI - a code using climatologically sequences as input - over the same area, the real time results have demonstrated an apparent overestimation of the corresponding climatologically sequence of Tritium concentrations in air outputs, at several distances from the reactor. For this purpose two development patterns were established. The first one was following a cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean Sea and the second one was based on the plume delivered over the Interior of the Iberian Peninsula and Continental Europe by another stabilized circulation corresponding to a High Pressure System. One of the important remaining activities defined then, was the qualification tool. In order to validate the model of ECMWF/FLEXPART we have developed of a new complete data base of tritium concentrations for the months from November 2010 to March 2011 and defined a new set of four patterns of HT transport in air, in each case using real boundary conditions: stationary to the North, stationary to the South, fast and very fast displacement. Finally the differences corresponding to those four early patterns (each one in assessments 1 and 2) has been analyzed in terms of the tuning of safety related issues and taking into account the primary phase o- - f tritium modeling, from its discharge to the atmosphere to the deposition on the ground, will affect to the complete tritium environmental pathway altering the chronic dose by absorption, reemission and ingestion both from elemental tritium, HT and from the oxide of tritium, HTO

Validation of real time dispersion of Tritium clouds over the Western Mediterranean Basin in different assesments

Real time Tritium concentrations in air coming from an ITER-like reactor as source were coupled the European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) numerical model with the lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model FLEXPART. This tool ECMWF/FLEXPART was analyzed in normal operating conditions in the Western Mediterranean Basin during 45 days at summer 2010. From comparison with NORMTRI plumes over Western Mediterranean Basin the real time results have demonstrated an overestimation of the corresponding climatologically sequence Tritium concentrations in air outputs, at several distances from the reactor. For these purpose two clouds development patterns were established. The first one was following a cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean Sea and the second one was based in the cloud delivered over the Interior of the Iberian Peninsula by another stabilized circulation corresponding to a High. One of the important remaining activities defined then, was the tool qualification. The aim of this paper is to present the ECMWF/FLEXPART products confronted with Tritium concentration in air data. For this purpose a database to develop and validate ECMWF/FLEXPART tritium in both assessments has been selected from a NORMTRI run. Similarities and differences, underestimation and overestimation with NORMTRI will allowfor refinement in some features of ECMWF/FLEXPART

Level Set Segmentation with Shape and Appearance Models Using Affine Moment Descriptors

We propose a level set based variational approach that incorporates shape priors into edge-based and region-based models. The evolution of the active contour depends on local and global information. It has been implemented using an efficient narrow band technique. For each boundary pixel we calculate its dynamic according to its gray level, the neighborhood and geometric properties established by training shapes. We also propose a criterion for shape aligning based on affine transformation using an image normalization procedure. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of the our approach on the liver segmentation from CT images.

Lupinus mariae-josphi, a new lupin endemic of soils with active lime and high pH in South Eastern Spain, is nodulated by a new bacterial lineage within Bradyrhizobium genus

Lupinus mariae-josephi is a recently described species (Pascual, 2004) able to grow in soils with high pH and active lime content in the Valencia province (Spain). L. mariae-josephi endosymbionts are extremely slowgrowing bacteria with genetic and symbiotic characteristics that differentiate them from Bradyrhizobium strains nodulating Lupinus spp. native of the Iberian Peninsula and adapted to grow in acid soils. Cross-inoculation experiments revealed that all the endosymbiotic isolates from L. mariae-josephi tested are legume-host selective and are unable to nodulate species such as L. angustifolius, and L. luteus. In contrast, Bradyrhizobium strains from Lupinus spp. tested were able to nodulate L. mariae-josephi, although the nodules fixed nitrogen inefficiently. Phylogenetic analysis was performed with housekeeping genes (rrn, glnII, recA, atpD) and nodulation gene nodC. Housekeeping gene phylogeny revealed that L. mariae-josephi rhizobia form a strongly supported monophyletic group within Bradyrhizobium genus. This cluster also includes B. jicamae and certain strains of B. elkanii. Contrarily, isolates from other Lupinus spp. native of the Iberian Peninsula were grouped mainly within B. canariense and two B. japonicum lineages. Phylogenetic analysis of L. mariae-josephi isolates based on the nodC symbiotic gene defined a solid clade close to isolates from Algerian Retama spp. and to fast-growing rhizobia.

Monitor sísmico interactivo

Este trabajo tiene como objetivos la monitorización en tiempo real de la actividad sísmica, tanto próxima como lejana, a partir de los datos sísmicos registrados por una estación de banda ancha, y el desarrollo de un sistema de difusión interactiva de información actualizada de terremotos, destinado al público general. Ambas fuentes de información se mostrarán a través de una Unidad de Visualización denominada “Monitor Sísmico Interactivo”. El registro de los datos sísmicos se realiza utilizando el sensor de tres componentes de la estación sísmica GUD, perteneciente a la Red Digital de Banda Ancha y transmisión digital del Instituto Geográfico Nacional, instalada en la Basílica del Valle de los Caídos, en lalocalidad de Guadarrama (Madrid). En la E.T.S.I. Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía se ha instalado un ordenador con conexión a Internet, para la recepción y almacenamiento de los datos, y los programas Scream y Drumplot desarrollados por Guralp, necesarios para la monitorización de la señal sísmica en tiempo real. A partir de estos datos, mediante aplicaciones desarrolladas bajo programación Linux y haciendo uso de las herramientas que ofrece el software SAC (Seismic Analysis Code), se genera además un registro gráfico y una película animada de dicha segmentación para cada evento. Se ha configurado un servidor de correo y una cuenta para la recepción de dos tipos de mensajes de correo, enviados desde la sede central del Instituto Geográfico Nacional, con la información de los eventos registrados por GUD una vez revisados: - Mensajes enviados diariamente, con un listado de eventos ocurridos en los 30 últimos días. - Mensajes con la información en cuasi tiempo real de la última alerta sísmica. Se ha desarrollado el programa “saco” para la gestión del correo recibido que analiza la información sísmica, la almacena en ficheros y ejecuta sobre ellos las aplicaciones de dibujo. Estas aplicaciones han sido previamente desarrolladas bajo programación Linux y software GMT (Generic Mapping Tools), y a partir de ellas se generan automáticamente las distintas imágenes que se visualizan en el Monitor Sísmico: un mapa de sismicidad próxima en la Península Ibérica, un mapa de sismicidad lejana en el mundo, un mapa de detalle para localizar y representar la última alerta generada, los listados con la información de los eventos representados en los mapas, los registros gráficos y las películas animadas de dichos sismogramas. Monitor Sísmico Interactivo ha sido desarrollado para ofrecer además la posibilidad de interactuar con la Unidad de Visualización: se ha creado una base de datos para uso científico donde se almacenan todos los eventos registrados por GUD. Así el usuario puede realizar una petición, a través del envío de un mensaje de correo, que le permite visualizar de forma instantánea las imágenes que muestran la información de cualquier terremoto de su interés. ABSTRACT This study is aimed at real-time monitoring of both near and distant seismic activityfrom the seismic data recorded by a broadband seismic station, and the development of an interactive broadcast system of updated information of earthquakes, for the general public. Bothsources of information are displayed through a display unit called "Interactive Seismic Monitor". The seismic data recording is carried out by using the three-component sensor of the GUD seismic station, which belongs to the Digital Network Broadband and digital broadcast of the National Geographic Institute, housed in the Basilica of The Valley of the Fallen, in the town of Guadarrama (Madrid). A computer with Internet connection has been installed in E.T.S.I. Surveying, Geodesy and Cartography for receiving and storing data, together with Scream and Drumplot programs, developed by Guralp, which are necessary for monitoring the real time seismic signal. Based on the data collected, through programming applications developed under Linux system and using the software tools provided by the SAC (Seismic Analysis Code), a chart recorder and an animated gif image of the segmentation for each event are also generated. A mail server and a mail account have been configured for the receipt of two types of email messages, sent from the National Geographic Institute head office, with the information of the events recorded by GUD after being reviewed: - Messages sent daily, providing a list of events in the past 30 days. - Messages containing information on near real-time seismic of the last seismic alert. A program called "saco" has also been developed for handling mail received that analyzes the seismic data, which stores it in files and runs drawing applications on them. These applications have been previously developed under Linux system and software programming GMT (Generic Mapping Tools), and from them different images that are displayed on the Seismic Monitor are automatically generated: a near seismicity Iberian peninsula map, a distant seismicity world map, a detailed map to locate and represent the last seismic alert generated, the lists with the information of the events depicted in the maps,together with the charts and the animated gif image of such seismograms. Interactive Seismic Monitor has been developed to offer any user the possibility of interacting with the display unit: a database has been created for scientific use which stores all the events recorded by GUD. Thus, any user could make a request, by sending an e-mail that allows them to view instantly all the images showing the information of any earthquake of interest on the display unit.

Estudio de la macroflora en yacimientos del Neógeno y Pleistoceno inferior del noroeste peninsular: significación paleoclimática

La presente tesis doctoral se centra en el estudio de dos yacimientos de macrorrestos fosiles vegetales, en especial maderas en diferentes estados de conservacion, y su interpretacion dentro del contexto del Neogeno Iberico. En primer lugar se detallan los objetivos del trabajo y los antecedentes del mismo. A continuacion, se describen detalladamente los dos yacimientos estudiados y se exponen las tecnicas empleadas de acuerdo con los diferentes tipos de materiales. Mas tarde se identifican taxonomicamente todos los restos hallados en los mismos. En el mismo capitulo de resultados se aplica el Metodo de Coexistencia sobre los principales yacimientos neogenos de la peninsula Iberica, para la estimacion de valores climaticos y se elabora un modelo de evolucion climatica para este periodo. Por ultimo, se discuten los resultados obtenidos, estableciendo una hipotesis de composicion y estructura de los bosques que vivieron en el tiempo en el que se depositaron los restos estudiados, se comparan con los datos obtenidos por otros autores y se combinan estos resultados con los datos del modelo de clima para reconstruir una sintesis de la evolucion de la vegetacion de la Peninsula durante el Periodo Neogeno y Gelasiense. Abstract This PhD thesis is based on the study of two different sites of vegetal fossil remains, specially wood in different preservation states, and their meaning in Iberian Neogene context. First of all, the objectives of the work and previous records are explained thoroughly. Secondly, the two deposits are described in detail, as well as the techniques used, according to different types of materials. Later on, all the samples found in each one are identified. In the same chapter of results, the “Coexistence Approach” is applied on the main Neogen sites of the Iberian Peninsula to estimate climatic intervals, and a model of climatic evolution for this period is built. Finally, the achieved results are discussed, setting an hypothesis about the composition and structure of the forests that lived in the time when the studied samples were settled. These results are then compared with the data gathered by different authors, and related to the data of the climatic model, to make a synthesis of the evolution of the vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula, during Neogene and Gelasian.

Historia holocena de los pinares montanos de los sistemas Central y Cantábrico: Un objetivo con dos enfoques, biogeográfico y dendroecológico

Los estudios paleoecológicos holocenos basados en macro- y megafósiles encierran un gran valor debido a que su información tiene generalmente carácter local, su origen es conocido, pueden ser datados directamente mediante el método radiocarbónico, y pueden identificarse a un nivel taxonómicamente preciso. Sin embargo son pocas las áreas del Sur de Europa en las que sea conocida una alta densidad de yacimientos con restos leñosos de gran tamaño. En esta tesis, se presentan datos de 53 yacimientos de la sierra de Gredos y de la cordillera Cantábrica (Península Ibérica). Los restos fueron hallados en ambientes variados, como zonas higroturbosas, turberas erosionadas o lagos, y fueron identificadas mediante el estudio de la anatomía de la madera o mediante rasgos morfológicos. En la sierra de Gredos, la evidencia paleobotánica indica la existencia de un panorama relativamente estable a lo largo del Holoceno medio y principio del Holoceno final y sugiere la persistencia, a lo largo de milenios, de un piso de pinares ampliamente distribuído en cotas altas de la sierra. La información obtenida de piñas y frutos mejoran la información taxonómica disponible y revelan la existencia tanto de Pinus sylvestris como de Pinus nigra en estas sierras durante el Holoceno. La datación radiocarbónica, medición de anillos de crecimiento y sincronización preliminar de 26 secciones de troncos de subfósiles demuestran el potencial de este material de las montañas de Iberia central en la obtención de cronologías holocenas de pino. En la cordillera Cantábrica, los datos aportan información espacialmente precisa de distribuciones de ciertas especies arbóreas durante el Holoceno. En las zonas centrales de la cordillera, han sido hallados fundamentalmente restos de pino, mientras que en las zonas más occidentales los pinos estás ausentes y los restos encontrados corresponden a otras especies de caducifolios (Betula, Salix, Quercus) y arbustos (Erica, Fabaceae) Esta información paleobiogeográfica constrasta con la distribución natural actual de Pinus sylvestris y Pinus nigra en el área de estudio. En la sierra de Gredos, la naturalidad de las escasos rodales de pinos que aún persisten ha sido discutida, mientras que en la cordillera Cantábrica, la única especie del grupo que persiste es P. sylvestris y está localizada en unos pocos relictos. El clima pudo haber jugado un papel importante en una primera fase de declive de los pinares durante el Holoceno inicial, mostrado en numerosos registros polínicos de manera casi sincrónica y asociada a una expansión de frondosas. Sin embargo la información histórica disponible y la comparación entre las áreas de distribución de los pinares en el presente, modelizada y en momentos anteriores a la la generalización de la presión antrópica sugiere que durante los últimos dos milenios, la actividad humana ha sido responsable de la desaparición de estas especies como árboles naturales en áreas extensas. ABSTRACTMacro- and megafossil studies provide information of great value in palaeoecology because such evidence is spatially precise, directly radiocarbon dated and usually taxon-specific. However, few areas of southern Europe have a high density of sites with Holocene woody remains. Here, local data from 53 sites in the Gredos Mountains and the Cantabrian Range (Iberian Peninsula) is presented. Woody remains were recovered from mires, eroded peat bogs and lakes and were identified by their wood anatomy or morphological traits. In the Gredos Mountains, palaeobotanical evidence portrays a relatively stable picture of tree distribution over the mid- and beggining of the late-Holocene, and suggests the persistence of a widespread belt of pinewoods. Cones and fruits enlarge the taxonomic information available and reveal that both Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra were present locally during the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating, tree ring measurement and preliminary cross-dating of 26 pine sub-fossil logs demonstrate the potential of obtaining a long pine chronology from subfossil wood from the mountains of Central Iberia. In the Cantabrian Range the data provide spatially precise evidence of tree distribution in the region during the Holocene. Pines were mostly identified in the central areas, whereas at the western edge no pine evidence was detected and deciduous trees (Betula, Salix, Quercus) and shrubs (Erica, Fabaceae) were identified. This palaeoecological information contrasts with the current natural distribution ranges of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the study area. In the Gredos Mountains, the naturality of the few pine stands currently growing has been heavily debated. In the Cantabrian Range P. sylvestris is the only pine species that is today present, and its natural presence is now limited to a few enclaves. Climate may have played a key role in the early-Holocene, as pollen archives document a pine demise that is synchronous with the spread of broadleaved taxa. However, available historical data and the comparison of the reconstructed distribution of pinewoods before extensive human forest disturbance with both present and modelled distributions suggests that during the last two millennia, anthropogenic activity may have removed these species as native trees from a large territory.

Aplicaciones de interés forestal de las imágenes obtenidas con el sensor Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)

Las aplicaciones de la teledetección al seguimiento de lo que ocurre en la superficie terrestre se han ido multiplicando y afinando con el lanzamiento de nuevos sensores por parte de las diferentes agencias espaciales. La necesidad de tener información actualizada cada poco tiempo y espacialmente homogénea, ha provocado el desarrollo de nuevos programas como el Earth Observing System (EOS) de la National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Uno de los sensores que incorpora el buque insignia de ese programa, el satélite TERRA, es el Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), diseñado para capturar información multiangular de la superficie terrestre. Ya desde los años 1970, se conocía que la reflectancia de las diversas ocupaciones y usos del suelo variaba en función del ángulo de observación y de iluminación, es decir, que eran anisotrópicas. Tal variación estaba además relacionada con la estructura tridimensional de tales ocupaciones, por lo que se podía aprovechar tal relación para obtener información de esa estructura, más allá de la que pudiera proporcionar la información meramente espectral. El sensor MISR incorpora 9 cámaras a diferentes ángulos para capturar 9 imágenes casi simultáneas del mismo punto, lo que permite estimar con relativa fiabilidad la respuesta anisotrópica de la superficie terrestre. Varios trabajos han demostrado que se pueden estimar variables relacionadas con la estructura de la vegetación con la información que proporciona MISR. En esta Tesis se ha realizado una primera aplicación a la Península Ibérica, para comprobar su utilidad a la hora de estimar variables de interés forestal. En un primer paso se ha analizado la variabilidad temporal que se produce en los datos, debido a los cambios en la geometría de captación, es decir, debido a la posición relativa de sensores y fuente de iluminación, que en este caso es el Sol. Se ha comprobado cómo la anisotropía es mayor desde finales de otoño hasta principios de primavera debido a que la posición del Sol es más cercana al plano de los sensores. También se ha comprobado que los valores máximo y mínimo se van desplazando temporalmente entre el centro y el extremo angular. En la caracterización multiangular de ocupaciones del suelo de CORINE Land Cover que se ha realizado, se puede observar cómo la forma predominante en las imágenes con el Sol más alto es convexa con un máximo en la cámara más cercana a la fuente de iluminación. Sin embargo, cuando el Sol se encuentra mucho más bajo, ese máximo es muy externo. Por otra parte, los datos obtenidos en verano son mucho más variables para cada ocupación que los de noviembre, posiblemente debido al aumento proporcional de las zonas en sombra. Para comprobar si la información multiangular tiene algún efecto en la obtención de imágenes clasificadas según ocupación y usos del suelo, se han realizado una serie de clasificaciones variando la información utilizada, desde sólo multiespectral, a multiangular y multiespectral. Los resultados muestran que, mientras para las clasificaciones más genéricas la información multiangular proporciona los peores resultados, a medida que se amplían el número de clases a obtener tal información mejora a lo obtenido únicamente con información multiespectral. Por otra parte, se ha realizado una estimación de variables cuantitativas como la fracción de cabida cubierta (Fcc) y la altura de la vegetación a partir de información proporcionada por MISR a diferentes resoluciones. En el valle de Alcudia (Ciudad Real) se ha estimado la fracción de cabida cubierta del arbolado para un píxel de 275 m utilizando redes neuronales. Los resultados muestran que utilizar información multiespectral y multiangular puede mejorar casi un 20% las estimaciones realizadas sólo con datos multiespectrales. Además, las relaciones obtenidas llegan al 0,7 de R con errores inferiores a un 10% en Fcc, siendo éstos mucho mejores que los obtenidos con el producto elaborado a partir de datos multiespectrales del sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), también a bordo de Terra, para la misma variable. Por último, se ha estimado la fracción de cabida cubierta y la altura efectiva de la vegetación para 700.000 ha de la provincia de Murcia, con una resolución de 1.100 m. Los resultados muestran la relación existente entre los datos espectrales y los multiangulares, obteniéndose coeficientes de Spearman del orden de 0,8 en el caso de la fracción de cabida cubierta de la vegetación, y de 0,4 en el caso de la altura efectiva. Las estimaciones de ambas variables con redes neuronales y diversas combinaciones de datos, arrojan resultados con R superiores a 0,85 para el caso del grado de cubierta vegetal, y 0,6 para la altura efectiva. Los parámetros multiangulares proporcionados en los productos elaborados con MISR a 1.100 m, no obtienen buenos resultados por sí mismos pero producen cierta mejora al incorporarlos a la información espectral. Los errores cuadráticos medios obtenidos son inferiores a 0,016 para la Fcc de la vegetación en tanto por uno, y 0,7 m para la altura efectiva de la misma. Regresiones geográficamente ponderadas muestran además que localmente se pueden obtener mejores resultados aún mejores, especialmente cuando hay una mayor variabilidad espacial de las variables estimadas. En resumen, la utilización de los datos proporcionados por MISR ofrece una prometedora vía de mejora de resultados en la media-baja resolución, tanto para la clasificación de imágenes como para la obtención de variables cuantitativas de la estructura de la vegetación. ABSTRACT Applications of remote sensing for monitoring what is happening on the land surface have been multiplied and refined with the launch of new sensors by different Space Agencies. The need of having up to date and spatially homogeneous data, has led to the development of new programs such as the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). One of the sensors incorporating the flagship of that program, the TERRA satellite, is Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), designed to capture the multi-angle information of the Earth's surface. Since the 1970s, it was known that the reflectance of various land covers and land uses varied depending on the viewing and ilumination angles, so they are anisotropic. Such variation was also related to the three dimensional structure of such covers, so that one could take advantage of such a relationship to obtain information from that structure, beyond which spectral information could provide. The MISR sensor incorporates 9 cameras at different angles to capture 9 almost simultaneous images of the same point, allowing relatively reliable estimates of the anisotropic response of the Earth's surface. Several studies have shown that we can estimate variables related to the vegetation structure with the information provided by this sensor, so this thesis has made an initial application to the Iberian Peninsula, to check their usefulness in estimating forest variables of interest. In a first step we analyzed the temporal variability that occurs in the data, due to the changes in the acquisition geometry, i.e. the relative position of sensor and light source, which in this case is the Sun. It has been found that the anisotropy is greater from late fall through early spring due to the Sun's position closer to the plane of the sensors. It was also found that the maximum and minimum values are displaced temporarily between the center and the ends. In characterizing CORINE Land Covers that has been done, one could see how the predominant form in the images with the highest sun is convex with a maximum in the camera closer to the light source. However, when the sun is much lower, the maximum is external. Moreover, the data obtained for each land cover are much more variable in summer that in November, possibly due to the proportional increase in shadow areas. To check whether the information has any effect on multi-angle imaging classification of land cover and land use, a series of classifications have been produced changing the data used, from only multispectrally, to multi-angle and multispectral. The results show that while for the most generic classifications multi-angle information is the worst, as there are extended the number of classes to obtain such information it improves the results. On the other hand, an estimate was made of quantitative variables such as canopy cover and vegetation height using information provided by MISR at different resolutions. In the valley of Alcudia (Ciudad Real), we estimated the canopy cover of trees for a pixel of 275 m by using neural networks. The results showed that using multispectral and multiangle information can improve by almost 20% the estimates that only used multispectral data. Furthermore, the relationships obtained reached an R coefficient of 0.7 with errors below 10% in canopy cover, which is much better result than the one obtained using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), also onboard Terra, for the same variable. Finally we estimated the canopy cover and the effective height of the vegetation for 700,000 hectares in the province of Murcia, with a spatial resolution of 1,100 m. The results show a relationship between the spectral and the multi-angle data, and provide estimates of the canopy cover with a Spearman’s coefficient of 0.8 in the case of the vegetation canopy cover, and 0.4 in the case of the effective height. The estimates of both variables using neural networks and various combinations of data, yield results with an R coefficient greater than 0.85 for the case of the canopy cover, and 0.6 for the effective height. Multi-angle parameters provided in the products made from MISR at 1,100 m pixel size, did not produce good results from themselves but improved the results when included to the spectral information. The mean square errors were less than 0.016 for the canopy cover, and 0.7 m for the effective height. Geographically weighted regressions also showed that locally we can have even better results, especially when there is high spatial variability of estimated variables. In summary, the use of the data provided by MISR offers a promising way of improving remote sensing performance in the low-medium spatial resolution, both for image classification and for the estimation of quantitative variables of the vegetation structure.

Pinos y arte : ensayo de contextualización en la naturaleza desde el Paleolítico a Roma

Al ser la naturaleza objeto de representación artística por el hombre, campos tan diversos como el arte y la ciencia forestal pueden compartir sus orígenes. Los pinos son un género botánico repartido por la cuenca mediterránea capaces de suscitar emociones al haber sido sujetos de lo que fue una innovación cultural. Se propone que los pinos pudieron ser objeto de las primeras representaciones artísticas de los antiguos pobladores de la Península Ibérica. La metodología en la selección de resultados se basa en patrones morfológicos: patrón 1 (plántulas de pino en sus primeras etapas de crecimiento), patrón 2 (dibujos asimilables a ramas de pino) y patrón 3 (dibujos de pinos de gran porte). La presentación de los resultados se estructura en: parte I (referente a las representaciones artísticas estimadas como de pinos en la prehistoria, diferenciando el arte paleolítico del post-paleolítico), parte II (contempla los resultados encontrados en el repertorio iconográfico del arte Íbero y Celtíbero) y parte III (presenta una selección de resultados del arte romano en Hispania). Las diferentes etapas artísticas se articulan comenzando con una introducción, seguida de enfoques multidisciplinares que incluyen una visión histórica del paisaje o de la ecología de la vegetación. A continuación se exponen los resultados de la revisión realizada en cada etapa histórica y el estudio y descripción de las piezas seleccionadas (localización geográfica, datación arqueológica, clasificación genérica de técnica, materiales, dimensiones, iconografía, contexto cultural y procedencia) y por último su discusión en cuanto a su adscripción al género Pinus y a la flora presente en el entorno, caso de ser posible. Esta información se completa con gráficos, diagramas, mapas y tablas situándolas en su contexto arqueológico y cronológico, aportando datos sobre el carácter utilitario, simbólico o ideológico de los pinos, cuya pervivencia se manifiesta en ser protagonistas de gran número de festejos en la España rural de nuestros días. SUMMARY Nature has been represented in paintings since ancient times, which enables fields of study as separate as art and forest science to share a common origin. Pine-tress belong to a botanical genus widely distributed throughout the Mediterranean basin, which are capable of rising emotion and being a representation of what at that time was cultural innovation, subsequently becoming symbols. In this dissertation we hypothesise that pine forest may have been one of the first artistic representations of the ancient dwellers of the Iberian Peninsula. The methodology used for the selection of results is based on morphological patterns, i.e.: Patern 1 (pine seedlings at their first developmental stages), Pattern 2 (drawings associated with pine branches and shoots), and Pattern 3 (paintings of large pine-trees). Results are shown according to the following structure: Part I (relating to prehistoric paintings identified as pines and differentiating Paleolithic from Post-Paleolithic art), Part II (involves the results gathered concerning Iberian and Celtiberian iconographic art) and Part III (including a selection of Roman art in Hispania concerning pine representations). The different artistic periods are linked beginning by an Introduction, followed by a multidisciplinary approach ranging from a historical landscape analysis to plant ecology within a Mediterranean context. Thereafter, results are presented by assessing each historical period and by describing each of the particular art pieces subjected to investigation (geographical location, archaeological date, generic classification of the art technique, materials, dimensions, iconography and cultural context and origin). Finally, the results are discussed according to their ascription to the Pinus genus and when possible, in relation with the surrounding flora. The information provided is complemented with diagrams, maps and tables to enable its understanding within a chronological and archaeological context and providing evidence for the functional, symbolic and ideological character of pines, which are still alive in Spain in the form of many rural feasts with particular kinds of celebrations where this species plays a central role.

Conexión con la meseta desde el Ebro medio de las vías romanas como base de la malla territorial de España

No tenemos conocimiento de ninguna red de caminos prerromanos que sirvieran como base de una posible malla territorial de España. Sin embargo, una sociedad prerromana sin caminos, por muy fragmentada y aislada que fuera, es algo improbable y mucho menos en la Edad del Hierro. Por eso en época prerromana existían infinidad de caminos, muchos de los cuales hoy han desaparecido y otros han sobrevivido, casi siempre con sus recorridos mejorados. Los pueblos prerromanos aprovecharon vías naturales de comunicación (ríos, vados, valles, puertos naturales, llanuras, etc.) para tender sus caminos. En sus orígenes no siguieron pautas concretas, si no que los caminos se originaban por el tránsito (de personas, ganados, mercancías, etc.) de un lugar a otro. De este modo la red viaria prerromana era caótica y anárquica: todo camino tenía numerosos ramales y variantes, según las necesidades. Pendientes excesivas, anchuras variables, etc., en decir eran vías espontáneas, surgidas sin ninguna planificación aparente. Los recorridos en general eran cortos, aunque algunas investigaciones actuales están demostrando que algunas de las cañadas ganaderas más importantes, como la Galiana, y de largo recorrido, eran de origen prerromano. En el caso de la península Ibérica, y más concretamente en el caso de la Meseta, el territorio estaba fragmentado en diversos pueblos y tribus, agrupados según criterios étnicos y culturales y con contactos con los pueblos próximos que motivan la preponderancia de caminos de recorrido cortos. Solo la necesidad de llevar los rebaños (de cabras y ovejas sobre todo) desde las serranías en verano a las llanuras en invierno, motivaría viajes más largos en los que algunas cañadas ganaderas jugarían un papel más importante. Con la llegada de los romanaos, se implantó en Hispania una densa red viaria, cuya construcción se prolongó durante toda la dominación romana, siendo reparadas muchas calzadas y vías en varias ocasiones. En época romana la red caminera era variada y estaba constituida por “las calzadas” que comunicaban puntos importantes, eran muy transitadas, de ahí que la administración romana las mantuviera siempre en buen estado, para asegurar el intercambio comercial entre zonas distintas, cobro de impuestos, etc. “Los caminos de tierra (viae terrenae)” que además de las calzadas, que podemos asemejar a las actuales carreteras de primer y segundo orden, constituían la infinidad de caminos locales y comarcales. Los trazados se realizaron unos en época romana, y otros muchos apoyándose en los caminos de la época prerromana, éstas vías no se realizaban buscando el recorrido más corto entre dos puntos, ni tampoco el más cómodo y con un firme estructural de menor importancia que en las calzadas. Tampoco estaban hechos para un tipo concreto de transporte, por lo que nos encontraríamos algunos que por su anchura permitían el paso de carros, y otros que sólo permitirían el paso a pie, a caballo o en burro. Solían ser, como hemos indicado, caminos de tierra con acabados en zahorras y recorridos en su mayor parte cortos y medianos. Dentro de la malla territorial de España las calzadas constituirían las denominadas “viae publicae” que constituían la red principal y esqueleto vertebrador de Hispania. Los caminos de tierra constituirían los denominados “actus” caminos de carácter regional que configuraban la mayor parte de la red. Muchas de las “viae publicae” y de los “actus” tendrían su origen en las “viae militares” que habrían sido los primeros construidos, apoyándose en muchas ocasiones en los caminos prerromanos, por los romanos para realizar la conquista de Hispania y que luego con la Paz romana habrían tenido otro tipo de uso. Dentro de estas “viae militares” tuvieron una importancia relevancia aquellas que se utilizaron en la conquista de la Celtiberia, culminada con la caída de Numantia. Dentro de ellas tuvo una importancia fundamental la vía romana del río Alhama, objeto de esta Tesis, que facilitaría el desplazamiento de los ejércitos romanos desde Graccurris, primera ciudad romana fundada en el Ebro medio, hasta Numantia. Desde la época Augusta, la vía romana del río Alhama, pasaría a formar parte de los denominados “actus” formando parte de la malla territorial de la Península Ibérica como vía de comunicación entre la Meseta y el Ebro Medio. We do not have knowledge of any network of ways prerromanos that were serving as base of a possible territorial mesh of Spain. Nevertheless, a company prerromana without ways, for very fragmented and isolated that was, is something improbable and great less in the Age of the Iron. Because of it in epoch prerromana existed infinity of ways, many of which today have disappeared and others have survived, almost always with his improved tours. The people prerromanos took advantage of natural routes of communication (rivers, fords, valleys, natural ports, plains, etc.) to stretch his ways. In his origins concrete guidelines did not continue, if not that the ways were originating for the traffic (of persons, cattle, goods, etc.) to and from. Thus the network viaria prerromana was chaotic and anarchic: all way had numerous branches and variants, according to the needs. Excessive slopes, variable widths, etc., in saying were spontaneous routes arisen without no apparent planning. The tours in general were short, though some current investigations are demonstrating that some of the most important cattle glens, as the Galiana, and of crossed length, were of origin prerromano. In case of the Iberian Peninsula, and more concretely in case of the Plateau, the territory was fragmented in diverse peoples and tribes, grouped according to ethnic and cultural criteria and with contacts with the near peoples that motivate the prevalence of short ways of tour. Only the need to take the flocks (of goats and sheeps especially) from the mountainous countries in summer to the plains in winter, would motivate longer trips in which some cattle glens would play a more important paper. With the arrival of the romanos, a dense network was implanted in Roman Spain viaria, whose construction extended during the whole Roman domination, being repaired many causeways and routes in several occasions. In Roman epoch the pertaining to roads network was changed and constituted by " the causeways " that were communicating important points, they were very travelled, of there that the Roman administration was supporting always in good condition, to assure the commercial exchange between different zones, collection of taxes, etc. "The dirt tracks (viae terrenae)" that besides the causeways, which we can make alike to the current roads of the first and second order, were constituting the infinity of local and regional ways. The tracings were realized some in Roman epoch, and great others resting on the ways of the epoch prerromana, these routes were not realized looking for the most short tour neither between points, two nor neither most comfortable and with a structural road surface of minor importance that in the causeways. They were not also done for a concrete type of transport, for what some of us would think that for his width they were allowing the step of cars, and others that only would allow the step afoot, astride or in donkey. They were in the habit of being, since we have indicated, dirt tracks with ended in zahorras and tours in his most short and medium. Inside the territorial mesh of Spain the causeways would constitute the called ones "viae publicae" that constituted the principal network and skeleton vertebrador of Roman Spain. The dirt tracks would constitute the "actus” called ways of regional character that were forming most of the network. Many of "viae publicae" and of the "actus" they would have his origin in " viae military" that would have been the first ones constructed, resting on many occasions on the ways prerromanos, for the Romans to realize the conquest of Roman Spain and that then with the Roman Peace they would have had another type of use. Inside these "viae military" had an importance relevancy those that were in use in the conquest of the Celtiberia, reached with Numantia's fall. Inside them a fundamental importance had the Roman route of the river Alhama, object of this Thesis, which would facilitate the displacement of the Roman armies from Graccurris, the first Roman city been founded on the average Ebro, up to Numantia. From the August epoch, the Roman route of the river Alhama, would happen to form a part of the "actus” forming a part of the territorial mesh of the Iberian Peninsula as road link between the Plateau and the Average Ebro.

Meteocean Influence on Inland and Coastal Floods in the East of Spain

The Santa Irene flood, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically and widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly attributable to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea-level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. The Santa Irene flood was attributable to a meteorological phenomenon known as gota fría (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish E to SE inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea-water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn and, as it happens, in other places around the world (E/SE Africa). Their occurrence, however, shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes on Caribbean and western North Atlantic areas or also in a similar way to typhoons). In fact, all of these are equivalent, although different, phenomena, able to have a different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains, and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper also explains the ways in which the nearby maritime weather and the consequential sea level govern floods on different zones of any hydrographical basin. The Santa Irene case can be considered as a paradigm to explain the influence of nearby maritime climatic conditions on flooding phenomena not only in coastal but also in upward inland areas.

Modelling Saharan dust transport into the Mediterranean basin with CMAQ

The need for a better quantification of the influence of Saharan dust transport processes on the air quality modelling in the Mediterranean basin led to the formulation of a dust emission module (DEM) integrated into the Air Quality Risk Assessment System for the Iberian Peninsula (SERCA). This paper is focused on the formulation of DEM based on the GOCART aerosol model, along with its integration and execution into the air quality model. It also addresses the testing of the module and its evaluation by contrasting results against satellite products such as MODIS and CALIPSO and ground-level observations of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and concentration levels of PM10 for different periods in July 2007. DEM was found capable of reproducing the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal profiles of Saharan dust outbreaks into the Mediterranean basin and the Atlantic coast of Africa. Moreover, it was observed that its combination with CMAQ increased the correlation degree between observed and modelled PM10 concentrations at the selected monitoring locations. DEM also enhanced CMAQ capabilities to reproduce observed AOT, although significant underestimations remain. The implementation of CMAQ + DEM succeeded in capturing Saharan dust transport into the Iberian Peninsula, with contributions up to 25 and 14 μg m−3 in 1 h and 24 h average PM10 respectively. The general improvement of total PM10 predictions in Spain are however moderate. The analysis of model performance for the main PM components points out that remaining PM10 underestimation is due to dust local sources missing in the inventories and misrepresentation of organic aerosol processes, which constitutes the main areas for future improvement of CMAQ capabilities to simulate particulate matter within SERCA.