The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that, while such effects are likely small compared to other sources of uncertainty, models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.

An investigation of QBO signals in the east Asian and Indian monsoon in GCM experiments

Observations have shown that the monsoon is a highly variable phenomenon of the tropical troposphere, which exhibits significant variance in the temporal range of two to three years. The reason for this specific interannual variability has not yet been identified unequivocally. Observational analyses have also shown that EI Niño indices or western Pacific SSTs exhibit some power in the two to three year period range and therefore it was suggested that an ocean-atmosphere interaction could excite and support such a cycle. Similar mechanisms include land-surface-atmosphere interaction as a possible driving mechanism. A rather different explanation could be provided by a forcing mechanism based on the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal wind in the lower equatorial stratosphere (QBO). The QBO is a phenomenon driven by equatorial waves with periods of some days which are excited in the troposphere. Provided that the monsoon circulation reacts to the modulation of tropopause conditions as forced by the QBO, this could explain monsoon variability in the quasi-biennial window. The possibility of a QBO-driven monsoon variability is investigated in this study in a number of general circulation model experiments where the QBO is assimilated to externally controlled phase states. These experiments show that the boreal summer monsoon is significantly influenced by the QBO. A QBO westerly phase implies less precipitation in the western Pacific, but more in India, in agreement with observations. The austral summer monsoon is exposed to similar but weaker mechanisms and the precipitation does not change significantly.

Regional performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the regional characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry. Its aim is to assess whether geography plays any major role in determining the performance or characteristics of Indian manufacturing firms, and in order to do this, it presents the results of cross-section regressions estimated on the basis of a balanced sample of 1607 firms across the 30 Indian states. The results suggest that firm performance and characteristics are related to many of the expected industrial organization variables. However, there is also evidence of significant region–state influences on both the performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry. As such, the results demonstrate that analyses which focus solely on standard non-spatial industrial organization variables will fail to explain much of the cross-sectional variation in firm performance and characteristics. In particular, while there are no systematic simple centre–periphery variations in the Indian regional economic system, there is evidence to suggest that industrial spatial concentration, regional specialization, and regional market size play a key role in determining the performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry.

Synoptic scale disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model

Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125' lat.Aon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure, the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure, intensity, frequency, movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr-', not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions, the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr-', not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However, under doubled CO2 conditions, fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum wind speed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere.

The relationship between community-based organisations and the effective management of coastal and marine resources in the Western Indian Ocean region

This study examines the relationship between community based organisations and marine and coastal resource management in the Western Indian Ocean Region.

The role of baroclinic waves in the initiation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean

Cases where tropical storms are initiated simultaneously along one latitude are investigated. It is argued that such structure arises as part of a baroclinic wave. A case from February 2008 is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses; the birth of three tropical cyclones in the low-level cyclonic regions to the east of upper-level troughs suggests that the wave was instrumental for initiation. Archived satellite imagery and storm warnings reveal that baroclinic waves over the southern Indian Ocean accompany tropical cyclogenesis twice a season on average, mainly in late summer, when breaking Rossby waves on the subtropical westerly jet are closest to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.

The role of oceans and sea ice in abrupt transitions between multiple climate states

The coupled climate dynamics underlying large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in ice cover are studied. A global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model with idealized aquaplanet geometry is forced by gradual multi-millennial variations in solar luminosity. The model traverses a hysteresis loop between warm ice-free conditions and cold glacial conditions in response to ±5 W m−2 variations in global, annual-mean insolation. Comparison of several model configurations confirms the importance of polar ocean processes in setting the sensitivity and time scales of the transitions. A “sawtooth” character is found with faster warming and slower cooling, reflecting the opposing effects of surface heating and cooling on upper-ocean buoyancy and, thus, effective heat capacity. The transition from a glacial to warm, equable climate occurs in about 200 years. In contrast to the “freshwater hosing” scenario, transitions are driven by radiative forcing and sea ice feedbacks. The ocean circulation, and notably the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), does not drive the climate change. The MOC (and associated heat transport) collapses poleward of the advancing ice edge, but this is a purely passive response to cooling and ice expansion. The MOC does, however, play a key role in setting the time scales of the transition and contributes to the asymmetry between warming and cooling.

Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.

The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean

AOGCMs of the two latest phases (CMIP3 and CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, like earlier AOGCMs, predict large regional variations in future sea level change. The model-mean pattern of change in CMIP3 and CMIP5 is very similar, and its most prominent feature is a zonal dipole in the Southern Ocean: sea level rise is larger than the global mean north of 50°S and smaller than the global mean south of 50°S in most models. The individual models show widely varying patterns, although the inter-model spread in local sea level change is smaller in CMIP5 than in CMIP3. Here we investigate whether changes in windstress can explain the different patterns of projected sea level change, especially the Southern Ocean feature, using two AOGCMs forced by the changes in windstress from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs. We show that the strengthening and poleward shift of westerly windstress accounts for the most of the large spread among models in magnitude of this feature. In the Indian, North Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the windstress change is influential, but does not completely account for the projected sea level change.

Catch-up strategies in the Indian auto components industry: domestic firms’ responses to market liberalization

Market liberalization in emerging-market economies and the entry of multinational firms spur significant changes to the industry/institutional environment faced by domestic firms. Prior studies have described how such changes tend to be disruptive to the relatively backward domestic firms, and negatively affect their performance and survival prospects. In this paper, we study how domestic supplier firms may adapt and continue to perform, as market liberalization progresses, through catch-up strategies aimed at integrating with the industry's global value chain. Drawing on internalization theory and the literatures on upgrading and catch-up processes, learning and relational networks, we hypothesize that, for continued performance, domestic supplier firms need to adapt their strategies from catching up initially through technology licensing/collaborations and joint ventures with multinational enterprises (MNEs) to also developing strong customer relationships with downstream firms (especially MNEs). Further, we propose that successful catch-up through these two strategies lays the foundation for a strategy of knowledge creation during the integration of domestic industry with the global value chain. Our analysis of data from the auto components industry in India during the period 1992–2002, that is, the decade since liberalization began in 1991, offers support for our hypotheses.

ENSO impact on Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection

The impact of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on atmospheric Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection is investigated using the ECMWF Re-Analysis, NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the analysis technique introduced in a previous study. It is found that the phase of ENSO has a substantial impact on Kelvin waves and associated convection over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. El Nino (La Nina) events enhance (suppress) variability of the upper-tropospheric Kelvin wave and the associated convection there, both in extended boreal winter and summer. The mechanism of the impact is through changes in the ENSO-related thermal conditions and the ambient flow. In El Nino years, because of SST increase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, variability of eastward-moving convection, which is mainly associated with Kelvin waves, intensifies in the region. In addition, owing to the weakening of the equatorial eastern Pacific westerly duct in the upper troposphere in El Nino years, Kelvin waves amplify there. In La Nina years, the opposite occurs. However, the stronger westerly duct in La Nina winters allows more NH extratropical Rossby wave activity to propagate equatorward and force Kelvin waves around 200 hPa, partially offsetting the in situ weakening effect of the stronger westerlies on the waves. In general, in El Nino years Kelvin waves are more convectively and vertically coupled and propagate more upward into the lower stratosphere over the central-eastern Pacific. The ENSO impact in other regions is not clear, although in winter over the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans Kelvin waves and their associated convection are slightly weaker in El Nino than in La Nina years.

Aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans deduced from POLDER-1 and AERONET observations

We estimate aerosol absorption over the clear-sky oceans using aerosol geophysical products from POLDER-1 space measurements and absorption properties from ground-based AERONET measurements. Our best estimate is 2.5 Wm-2 averaged over the 8-month lifetime of POLDER-1. Low and high absorption estimates are 2.2 and 3.1 Wm-2 based on the variability in aerosol single scattering albedo observed by AERONET. Main sources of uncertainties are the discrimation of the aerosol type from satellite measurements, and potential clear-sky bias induced by the cloud-screening procedure.