Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Sri Lanka : secondary data analysis of demographic and health survey 2000

Background: Poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of childhood malnutrition and morbidity. Objective: To estimate the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and the determinants of selected feeding practices in Sri Lanka. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,127 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2000. The key infant feeding indicators were estimated and selected indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community- level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 56.3% of infants, 99.7% had ever been breastfed, 85.0% were currently being breastfed, and 27.2% were being bottle-fed. Of infants under 6 months of age, 60.6% were fully breastfed, and of those aged 6 to 9 months, 93.4% received complementary foods. The likelihood of not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was higher for mothers who underwent cesarean delivery (OR = 3.23) and those who were not visited by a Public Health Midwife at home during pregnancy (OR = 1.81). The rate of full breastfeeding was significantly lower among mothers who did not receive postnatal home visits by a Public Health Midwife. Bottlefeeding rates were higher among infants whose mothers had ever been employed (OR = 1.86), lived in a metropolitan area (OR = 3.99), or lived in the South-Central Hill country (OR = 3.11) and were lower among infants of mothers with secondary education (OR = 0.27). Infants from the urban (OR = 8.06) and tea estate (OR = 12.63) sectors were less likely to receive timely complementary feeding than rural infants. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal contacts with Public Health Midwives were associated with improved breastfeeding practices. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically focus on the estate and urban or metropolitan communities.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Community engagement and groundwater investigation in a rural/peri urban basaltic aquifier system, Tamborine Mountain, South East Queensland

The Tamborine Mt area is a popular residential and tourist area in the Gold Coast hinterland, SE Qld. The 15km2 area occurs on elevated remnant Tertiary Basalts of the Beechmont Group, which comprise a number of mappable flow units originally derived from the Tweed volcanic centre to the south. The older Albert Basalt (Tertiary), which underlies the Beechmont Basalt at the southern end of the investigation area, is thought to be derived from the Focal Peak volcanic centre to the south west. The Basalts contain a locally significant ‘un-declared’ groundwater resource, which is utilised by the Tamborine Mt community for: • domestic purposes to supplement rainwater tank supplies, • commercial scale horticulture and • commercial export off-Mountain for bottled water. There is no reticulated water supply, and all waste water is treated on-site through domestic scale WTPs. Rainforest and other riparian ecosystems that attract residents and tourist dollars to the area, are also reliant on the groundwater that discharges to springs and surface streams on and around the plateau. Issues regarding a lack of compiled groundwater information, groundwater contamination, and groundwater sustainability are being investigated by QUT, utilising funding provided by the Federal Government’s ‘Caring for our Country’ programme through SEQ Catchments Ltd. The objectives of the two year project, which started in April 2009, are to: • Characterise the nature and condition of groundwater / surface water systems in the Tamborine Mountain area in terms of the issues being raised; • Engage and build capacity within the community to source local knowledge, encourage participation, raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of land and water use; • Develop a stand-alone 3D Visualisation model for dissemination into the community and use as a communication tool.

Perceptions of the psychological well-being and care of older home care clients : clients and their carers

Aim. To explore and compare older home care clients’ (65+) and their professionals’ perceptions of the clients’ psychological well-being and care and to identify possible differences in these perceptions. Background. Psychological well-being is considered an important dimension of quality of life. With advancing age, older people require home care support to be able to remain in their own home. The main goal of care is to maximise their independence and quality of life. Design. Descriptive, survey design with questionnaire. Methods. A postal questionnaire was distributed to 200 older home care clients and 570 social and health care professionals in 2007. The total response rate was 63%. The questionnaire consisted of questions about clients’ psychological well-being and the provision of care by home care professionals. The differences in responses between clients and professionals were analysed using cross-tabulations, the Pearson Chi-Square Test and Fisher’s Exact Tests. Results. The professional group believed that their clients did not have plans for the future. They believed that their clients felt themselves depressed and suffering from loneliness significantly more often than the client group did. The client group were also significantly more critical of the care (motivating independent actions, physical, psychological and social care) they got from the professional group than how the professionals evaluated the care they gave. Conclusions. To be able to support older clients to continue living at home, professionals need to provide a service that meets client’s own perceptions and complex social and health care needs as well as personal sense of well-being. Relevance to clinical practice. The findings offer useful insights for the professional in planning and delivering appropriate home care services. A better understanding of differences between clients’ and professionals’ perceptions could lead to a better individualised care outcome.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

Media Economics

A concise introduction to the key ideas and issues in the study of media economics, drawing on a broad range of case studies - from Amazon and Twitter, to Apple and Netflix - to illustrate how economic paradigms are not just theories, but provide important practical insights into how the media operates today. Understanding the economic paradigms at work in media industries and markets is vitally important for the analysis of the media system as a whole. The changing dynamics of media production, distribution and consumption are stretching the capacity of established economic paradigms. In addition to succinct accounts of neo-classical and critical political economics, the text offers fresh perspectives for understanding media drawn from two 'heterodox' approaches: institutional economics and evolutionary economics. Applying these paradigms to vital topics and case studies, Media Economics stresses the value – and limits – of contending economic approaches in understanding how the media operates today. It is essential reading for all students of Media and Communication Studies, and also those from Economics, Policy Studies, Business Studies and Marketing backgrounds who are studying the media. Table of Contents: 1. Media Economics: The Mainstream Approach 2. Critical Political Economy of the Media 3. Institutional Economics 4. Evolutionary Economics 5. Case Studies and Conclusions

Longitudinal investigation of wandering behavior in department of veterans affairs nursing home care units

Objectives To explore the extent of and factors associated with male residents who change wandering status post nursing home admission. Design Longitudinal design with secondary data analyses. Admissions over a 4-year period were examined using repeat assessments with the Minimum Data Set (MDS) to formulate a model understanding the development of wandering behavior. Setting One hundred thirty-four Veterans Administration (VA) nursing homes throughout the United States. Participants: Included 6673 residents admitted to VA nursing homes between October 2000 and October 2004. Measurements MDS variables (cognitive impairment, mood, behavior problems, activities of daily living and wandering) included ratings recorded at residents’ admission to the nursing home and a minimum of two other time points at quarterly intervals. Results The majority (86%) of the sample were classified as non wanderers at admission and most of these (94%) remained non wanderers until discharge or the end of the study. Fifty one per cent of the wanderers changed status to non wanderers with 6% of these residents fluctuating in status more than two times. Admission variables associated with an increased risk of changing status from non-wandering to wandering included older age, greater cognitive impairment, more socially inappropriate behavior, resisting care, easier distractibility, and needing less help with personal hygiene. Requiring assistance with locomotion and having three or more medical comorbidities were associated with a decreased chance of changing from non-wandering to wandering status. Conclusion A resident’s change from non-wandering to wandering status may reflect an undetected medical event that affects cognition, but spares mobility.

Sustainability and mandatory disclosure in Queensland : an assessment of the impact on home buyer patterns

Sustainability Declarations were introduced by the Queensland State Government on 1 January 2010 as a compulsory measure for all dwelling sales. The purpose of this policy decision was to improve the relevance of sustainability in the home ownership decision making process. This paper assesses the initial impact of this initiative over its first year in operation. In partnership with the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, real estate agents and salespeople in Queensland were surveyed to determine what impact the Sustainability Declaration has had on home buyer decision making. The level of compliance by the real estate industry was also reviewed. These preliminary findings indicate a high level of compliance from the real estate industry, however results confirm that sustainability is yet to become a criterion of relevance to the majority of home buyers in Queensland. The Sustainability Declarations are a first step in raising awareness in home owners of the importance of sustainability in housing. Further monitoring of this impact will be carried out over time.

Integrating the resource-based view and transaction cost economics in immigrant business performance

This paper presents a new integrated framework that integrates the resource-based view and transaction cost economics to explain the phenomenon of immigrant entrepreneurship. We extend the existing literature on immigrant entrepreneurship by identifying different types of ethnic network resources and demonstrating how these resources interact with transaction costs in the context of Chinese immigrants. Thus, our study contributes to the literature by providing a theoretical framework which identifies mechanisms immigrant entrepreneurs use to strategically deploy resources to minimize costs and maximize performance outcomes.

Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia

This paper presents findings from the rural and remote road safety study, conducted in Queensland, Australia, from March 2004 till June 2007, and compares fatal crashes and non-fatal but serious crashes in respect of their environmental, vehicle and operator factors. During the study period there were 613 non-fatal crashes resulting in 684 hospitalised casualties and 119 fatal crashes resulting in 130 fatalities. Additional information from police sources was available on 103 fatal and 309 non-fatal serious crashes. Over three quarters of both fatal and hospitalised casualties were male and the median age in both groups was 34 years. Fatal crashes were more likely to involve speed, alcohol and violations of road rules and fatal crash victims were 2 and a 1/2 times more likely to be unrestrained inside the vehicle than non-fatal casualties, consistent with current international evidence. After controlling for human factors, vehicle and road conditions made a minimal contribution to the seriousness of the crash outcome. Targeted interventions to prevent fatalities on rural and remote roads should focus on reducing speed and drink driving and promoting seatbelt wearing.

Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

Ethical fashion : the human stories driving a fashion movement

This paper examines and compares two stories, the novel Helen Fleetwood (Elizabeth, 1841) and the film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), in relation to the Ethical Fashion movement. In 2005, more than 50 designers from around the world took part in The Ethical Fashion Show in Paris. This movement dictates that designers ensure that their garments are produced in an ethical manner, rather than support the ‘sweatshop’ environments of some industrialists determined to make a profit at the expense of workers rights. The momentum of the Ethical Fashion movement suggests that it is possible for fashion to be ethical, desirable and profitable in the 21st century. In 1841, after extensive research, Charlotte Elizabeth Tonna (using the pseudonym Charlotte Elizabeth) began to write about the atrocities of the factory system in industrialised England. Her novel, Helen Fleetwood, is one of the earliest examples of this kind of work, providing the reader with an extensive insight into the life of English factory workers in the mid-19th century. The story is about the Widow Green and her orphan dependents who are led, through circumstance, to leave their rural home and take up employment in the cotton mills of Manchester, with the hope of having an independent existence. Instead they discover the realities of factory life – extremely long hours, unsafe conditions, poor wages and a steady decline into extreme poverty. In his film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), director Micha X. Peled tells an alarmingly similar tale set in 21st century China. This ‘docu-drama’ (a recreation from actual interviews and diary entries) tells the story of ‘Little Jasmine’ who leaves her family’s farm to pursue an independent life in Southern China’s manufacturing district. It is not long before the realities of modern factory life are revealed to the teenage ‘heroine’ – crowded dormitories, long working hours, arbitrary fines and wages that do not compare with those of workers in the Western world. While much of the human story remains unchanged, there have been significant improvements in technology and safety in the last 165 years that result in the reality that not all clothing manufacture is performed in ‘sweatshop’ conditions. After a recent visit to a manufacturing plant in China, consultation with peers in the industry and having worked in the Australian fashion industry for many years, the author compares these stories with her own experiences.