Sediment accumulation rates in subarctic lakes: insights into age-depth modeling from 22 dated lake records from the Northwest Territories, Canada

Age-depth modeling using Bayesian statistics requires well-informed prior information about the behavior of sediment accumulation. Here we present average sediment accumulation rates (represented as deposition times, DT, in yr/cm) for lakes in an Arctic setting, and we examine the variability across space (intra- and inter-lake) and time (late Holocene). The dataset includes over 100 radiocarbon dates, primarily on bulk sediment, from 22 sediment cores obtained from 18 lakes spanning the boreal to tundra ecotone gradients in subarctic Canada. There are four to twenty-five radiocarbon dates per core, depending on the length and character of the sediment records. Deposition times were calculated at 100-year intervals from age-depth models constructed using the ‘classical’ age-depth modeling software Clam. Lakes in boreal settings have the most rapid accumulation (mean DT 20 ± 10 years), whereas lakes in tundra settings accumulate at moderate (mean DT 70 ± 10 years) to very slow rates, (>100 yr/cm). Many of the age-depth models demonstrate fluctuations in accumulation that coincide with lake evolution and post-glacial climate change. Ten of our sediment cores yielded sediments as old as c. 9,000 cal BP (BP = years before AD 1950). From between c. 9,000 cal BP and c. 6,000 cal BP, sediment accumulation was relatively rapid (DT of 20 to 60 yr/cm). Accumulation slowed between c. 5,500 and c. 4,000 cal BP as vegetation expanded northward in response to warming. A short period of rapid accumulation occurred near 1,200 cal BP at three lakes. Our research will help inform priors in Bayesian age modeling.

Financial reintegration assistance for veterans of the Irish revolution (1916-23): post-conflict policy in an historical setting

In the aftermath of the Irish revolution and Civil War the governments of independent Ireland introduced various compensation schemes to provide financial reintegration assistance to revolutionary veterans. This would be recognised today as part of a programme for DDR. This paper will examine various service and disability pensions paid to veterans in the context of literature on post-conflict reintegration. It will examine various challenges to reintegration in an effort to analyse the success of revolutionary compensation as a post-conflict reintegration mechanism in independent Ireland after 1922.

Chase over the Nile: The Social Evolution of Riverine Landscape in Urban Egypt

Throughout its history, Cairo evolved as a regional metropolis that sprawls along the banks of the Nile accumulating narratives of evolving social landscape. Overlooking the Nile reflected a privileged social position and place for the urban elite. In spatial terms, the urban bourgeoisie tend to develop living havens in enclaves that are distant from the populace’s everyday life. Ironically, exclusive settlements only attract urban growth further in their direction. This chapter offers an analytical reading of the socio-spatial structure of Cairo following the emergence and decline of a series bourgeoisie quarters along the shores of the Nile. It reports urban narratives based on archival records, documents and investigation of historical texts and travelers’ accounts. This essay argues that cities are essentially social constructs in which hierarchy and connectivity are fundamental aspects of its economic and spatial logic. Through social ambition and desire for upgrade, middle class infiltrate into bourgeoisie havens and sometimes encircle it, seeking better living condition inscribed by social mobility and connectivity to centres of wealth and power. Being both natural barrier and cohesive spine, the Nile helped Cairo to develop successive nucleuses of highly crafted urban experiences that have left their imprints on the contemporary urban scene.

Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

The Historical Use of Amnesties, Immunities, and Sentence Reductions in Northern Ireland

While it is widely believed that the use of amnesties and similar measures would mark a new departure in NI and the UK, so that speculation about their introduction causes public controversy and threatens political instability, the report demonstrates that such measures have in fact been repeatedly used in a wide range of circumstances since the foundation of the NI state. The paper offers definitions of the key measures which have been employed, including amnesties, sentence reductions linked to peace building and use immunities. It explores their historical use and its consequences.

Progress towards improving chronologies for marine sediment records.

The North Atlantic has played a key role in abrupt climate changes due to the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the location and strength of deep water formation. It is crucial for modelling future climate change to understand the role of the AMOC in the rapid warming and gradual cooling cycles known as Dansgaard-Oescher (DO) events which are recorded in the Greenland ice cores. However, palaeoceanographic research into DO events has been hampered by the uncertainty in timing due largely to the lack of a precise chronological time frame for marine records. While tephrochronology provides links to the Greenland ice core records at a few points, radiocarbon remains the primary dating method for most marine cores. Due to variations in the atmospheric and oceanic 14C concentration, radiocarbon ages must be calibrated to provide calendric ages. The IntCal Working Group provides a global estimate of ocean 14C ages for calibration of marine radiocarbon dates, but the variability of the surface marine reservoir age in the North Atlantic particularly during Heinrich or DO events, makes calibration uncertain. In addition, the current Marine09 radiocarbon calibration beyond around 15 ka BP is largely based on 'tuning' to the Hulu Cave isotope record, so that the timing of events may not be entirely synchronous with the Greenland ice cores. The use of event-stratigraphy and independent chronological markers such as tephra provide the scope to improve marine radiocarbon reservoir age estimates particularly in the North Atlantic where a number of tephra horizons have been identified in both marine sediments and the Greenland ice cores. Quantification of timescale uncertainties is critical but statistical techniques which can take into account the differential dating between events can improve the precision. Such techniques should make it possible to develop specific marine calibration curves for selected regions.

Historical Dialogue and Memory in Organisational Transition: the case of the Police in Northern Ireland

During Northern Ireland’s transition towards peace the role of the police as an actor in the conflict has been a key point of contention. As such, the reform of policing has been central to conflict transformation. Within this process, the role of dialogue about what policing had been and could be in the future has been vital. Such institutional post violence change processes have been hugely significant in illustrating both organisational resistance to change and the need for transitions to be powerfully manoeuvred through complex, political, organisational and cultural processes (Buchanan and Badham 1999; Pettigrew 2012). The radical and reforming nature of policing transition (Murphy 2013) has been both organisationally challenging (requiring significant transformational leadership, resourcing and external engagement from wider civic society) and politically unusual. Indeed, in a society emerging from violence the NI police are the only public sector organisation to have engaged structurally and culturally in understanding the point at which their core roles intersected with the ‘management’ of the conflict in NI generally. This paper presents an analysis of the role of historical dialogue in organisational change process, using the RUC / PSNI case. It proposes that historical dialogue is not just an external, societal process but also an internal organisational process and as such, has implications for managing institutional change in societies emerging from conflict. In doing so, it builds theoretical links between literature on conflict transformation and that on organisational memory and empirically explores messaging internal to the RUC before and during the four main periods of organisational change (Murphy 2013), with dialogue aimed at an external audience. It offers an analysis of how historical dialogue itself impacts on and is impacted by the organisational realities of change itself.