Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

Physician adoption of a practice guideline: Effect on the cost of medical care for adult patients with diabetes

In the demanding environment of healthcare reform, reduction of unwanted physician practice variation is promoted, often through evidence-based guidelines. Guidelines represent innovations that direct change(s) in physician practice; however, compliance has been disappointing. Numerous studies have analyzed guideline development and dissemination, while few have evaluated the consequences of guideline adoption. The primary purpose of this study was to explore and analyze the relationship between physician adoption of the glycated hemoglobin test guideline for management of adult patients with diabetes, and the cost of medical care. The study also examined six personal and organizational characteristics of physicians and their association with innovativeness, or adoption of the guideline. ^ Cost was represented by approved charges from a managed care claims database. Total cost, and diabetes and related complications cost, first were compared for all patients of adopter physicians with those of non-adopter physicians. Then, data were analyzed controlling for disease severity based on insulin dependency, and for high cost cases. There was no statistically significant difference in any of eight cost categories analyzed. This study represented a twelve-month period, and did not reflect cost associated with future complications known to result from inadequate management of glycemia. Guideline compliance did not increase annual cost, which, combined with the future benefit of glycemic control, lends support to the cost effectiveness of the guideline in the long term. Physician adoption of the guideline was recommended to reduce the future personal and economic burden of this chronic disease. ^ Only half of physicians studied had adopted the glycated hemoglobin test guideline for at least 75% of their diabetic patients. No statistically significant relationship was found between any physician characteristic and guideline adoption. Instead, it was likely that the innovation-decision process and guideline dissemination methods were most influential. ^ A multidisciplinary, multi-faceted approach, including interventions for each stage of the innovation-decision process, was proposed to diffuse practice guidelines more effectively. Further, it was recommended that Organized Delivery Systems expand existing administrative databases to include clinical information, decision support systems, and reminder mechanisms, to promote and support physician compliance with this and other evidence-based guidelines. ^

Reactions of African immigrants living in Houston, Texas, to the American media and legislation regarding female circumcision

Female circumcision was almost unheard of in the United States a few years ago. The recent influx of African immigrants has increased media attention to the subject, leading to laws criminalizing female circumcision. This study examines the reactions of African immigrants living in Houston, Texas, to media portrayal and legislation regarding female circumcision in an attempt to understand the effectiveness of U.S. laws, and media messages in deterring the practice. ^ Through literature reviews the study looks at how female circumcision is portrayed in the Houston Chronicle, and gives detailed discussion of laws regarding it. Attitudes, beliefs, experiences and reactions of African immigrants towards the practice and American's perceptions of female circumcision is examined via a series of case studies. ^ Data show that media and laws portray female circumcision negatively and make little attempt to understand the cultural practice, generating outrage among Africans who would like to see changes in the practice. ^

An analysis of two methods for the classification of stage of readiness to obtain repeat mammography screening

Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

Prenatal care: A survey of African American women in Houston

The focus of the study was to identify variables that African American women who delivered at a teaching hospital in Houston, Harris County, Texas, between January 12, 1998 and April 24, 1998 perceived to prevent them from receiving adequate prenatal care. The research was based on Aday and Andersen's Framework for the Study of Access to Medical Care. A self-administered questionnaire, using realized and potential access indicators, was developed and administered to 161 African American patients at the study hospital. ^ The objectives of the study were (1) to describe the demographic characteristics of African American women who delivered at a large urban teaching hospital between January 12, 1998 and April 24, 1998; and to determine the relationships between (2) predisposing factors such as age, race, educational level, marital status, family structure, social support and attitude toward prenatal care and prenatal care utilization; (3) enabling factors such as income, employment, insurance status, transportation, appointment, and regular source of care; (4) need factors such as perceived health status, number of past pregnancies, pregnancy occurrence; and (5) the relative importance of predisposing, enabling and need factors as predictors of utilization of prenatal care. The indicators of prenatal care utilization examined included the trimester in which the women initiated prenatal care, number of visits, and numbers and types of services received during pregnancy. Barriers cited included low income and inadequate insurance coverage, problems of transportation and child care, unawareness of pregnancy, delays in the scheduling of appointments, and having too many other problems. ^ The results of the study have implications for well-defined public health promotion campaigns, social support system enhancement, and appointment scheduling reform with an emphasis on prenatal care. ^

Effects of exercise with oxygen prebreathe for decompression risk reduction

Astronauts performing extravehicular activities (EVA) are at risk for occupational hazards due to a hypobaric environment, in particular Decompression Sickness (DCS). DCS results from nitrogen gas bubble formation in body tissues and venous blood. Denitrogenation achieved through lengthy staged decompression protocols has been the mainstay of prevention of DCS in space. Due to the greater number and duration of EVAs scheduled for construction and maintenance of the International Space Station, more efficient alternatives to accomplish missions without compromising astronaut safety are desirable. ^ This multi-center, multi-phase study (NASA-Prebreathe Reduction Protocol study, or PRP) was designed to identify a shorter denitrogenation protocol that can be implemented before an EVA, based on the combination of adynamia and exercise enhanced oxygen prebreathe. Human volunteers recruited at three sites (Texas, North Carolina and Canada) underwent three different combinations (“PRP phases”) of intense and light exercise prior to decompression in an altitude chamber. The outcome variables were detection of venous gas embolism (VGE) by precordial Doppler ultrasound, and clinical manifestations of DCS. Independent variables included age, gender, body mass index, oxygen consumption peak, peak heart rate, and PRP phase. Data analysis was performed both by pooling results from all study sites, and by examining each site separately. ^ Ten percent of the subjects developed DCS and 20% showed evidence of high grade VGE. No cases of DCS occurred in one particular PRP phase with use of the combination of dual-cycle ergometry (10 minutes at 75% of VO2 peak) plus 24 minutes of light EVA exercise (p = 0.04). No significant effects were found for the remaining independent variables on the occurrence of DCS. High grade VGE showed a strong correlation with subsequent development of DCS (sensitivity, 88.2%; specificity, 87.2%). In the presence of high grade VGE, the relative risk for DCS ranged from 7.52 to 35.0. ^ In summary, a good safety level can be achieved with exercise-enhanced oxygen denitrogenation that can be generalized to the astronaut population. Exercise is beneficial in preventing DCS if a specific schedule is followed, with an individualized VO2 prescription that provides a safety level that can then be applied to space operations. Furthermore, VGE Doppler detection is a useful clinical tool for prediction of altitude DCS. Because of the small number of high grade VGE episodes, the identification of a high probability DCS situation based on the presence of high grade VGE seems justified in astronauts. ^

Environmental and behavioral risk factors for moderate or severe rotavirus diarrhea in children less than 24 months

On a global basis rotaviruses are the most important agents involved in childhood diarrhea. In developing countries they account for 6% of all diarrheas and 20% of all diarrhea related deaths of children under 5 years of age, with over 1 billion episodes and over 4 million deaths annually. Given the disease burden, there is a need for better understanding the risk factors involved in rotavirus disease, to identify areas of intervention. In order to provide this information, two areas were developed: a review of the literature, examining the causal evidence for rotavirus diarrhea and a case comparison study. The case comparison study analyzed two areas: identifying climate factors and, identifying environmental and behavioral risk factors. The literature review showed that few analytical studies have identified specific risk factors such as home environment, and a winter seasonal trend for temperate areas, but in key areas evidence is contradictory. The case comparison study for climate factors demonstrated that seasonality occurs in a tropical country like Venezuela and that a complex interplay between weather conditions contribute to the seasonal pattern. A positive association between rain fall (OR 4.1); dew point (OR 2.3) and temperature differential during the day (OR 1.4) and, an inverse association with temperature (OR 0.5) and relative humidity (OR 0.8) was found. This information is useful in understanding the seasonal pattern of rotavirus and for planning health care needs. The second analysis demonstrated that environmental variables such as crowding (OR 14.3), contact with someone with an infectious disease (OR 4.9) and animal ownership (OR 2.3) were important. Restricting the analysis to animal owners demonstrated that living In a rural settling (OR 13.8), defecating in inappropriate places (OR 7.2), crowding(4.2) and indoor animals (4.0) are of importance. Behavioral variables identified were: lack of breast feeding (OR 4.0) and visiting when someone was sick (OR 3.4). Biological and demographic variables of importance were: age, with a dose response relationship; undernurishment (OR 11.3) and household per capita monthly income less than US $ 16.30 (OR 8.5). Using a diarrhea compeer group we found that, although some of the previous variables were of importance, no major differences were found. These findings are important in identifying paths for prevention and further research. ^

Primary lung cancer after breast cancer: The role of radiation therapy and cigarette smoking

The magnitude of the interaction between cigarette smoking, radiation therapy, and primary lung cancer after breast cancer remains unresolved. This case control study further examines the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation therapy (XRT) among breast cancer patients who subsequently developed primary lung cancer, at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) in Houston, Texas. Cases (n = 280) were women diagnosed with primary lung cancer between 1955 and 1970, between 30–89 years of age, who had a prior history of breast cancer, and were U.S. residents. Controls (n = 300) were randomly selected from 37,000 breast cancer patients at MDACC and frequency matched to cases on age at diagnosis (in 5-year strata), ethnicity, year of breast cancer diagnosis (in 5-year strata), and had survived at least as long as the time interval for lung cancer diagnosis in the cases. Stratified analysis and unconditional logistic regression modeling were used to calculate the main and joint effects of cigarette smoking and radiation treatment on lung cancer risk. Medical record review yielded smoking information on 93% of cases and 84% of controls, and among cases 45% received XRT versus 44% of controls. Smoking increased the odds of lung cancer in women who did not receive XRT (OR = 6.0, 95%CI, 3.5–10.1) whereas XRT was not associated with increased odds (OR = 0.5, 95%CI, 0.2–1.1) in women who did not smoke. Overall the odds ratio for both XRT and smoking together compared with neither exposure was 9.00 (9 5% CI, 5.1–15.9). Similarly, when stratifying on laterality of the lung cancer in relation to the breast cancer, and when the time interval between breast and lung cancers was >10 years, there was an increased odds for both smoking and XRT together for lung cancers on the same side as the breast cancer (ipsilateral) (OR = 11.5, 95% CI, 4.9–27.8) and lung cancers on the opposite side of the breast cancer (contralateral) (OR= 9.6, 95% CI, 2.9–0.9). After 20 years the odds for the ipsilateral lung were even more pronounced (OR = 19.2, 95% CI, 4.2–88.4) compared to the contralateral lung (OR = 2.6, 95% CI, 0.2–2.1). In conclusion, smoking was a significant independent risk factor for lung cancer after breast cancer. Moreover, a greater than multiplicative effect was observed with smoking and XRT combined being especially evident after 10 years for both the ipsilateral and contralateral lung and after 20 years for the ipsilateral lung. ^

Intendedness of pregnancy among active duty women in the U.S. Army

Objective. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of unintended pregnancy and the association between social and demographic factors among a population of active duty women in the U.S. Army giving birth to viable infants at a U.S. Army hospital at Fort Hood, Texas. Prevalence of unintended pregnancy in this group was 50.9% (95% CI 44.0 to 57.9) with 36.3% being mistimed (95% CI 29.8 to 33.2) and 14.6% being unwanted (95% CI 10.2 to 20.1). A further 14.2% of the women experienced ambivalence (95% CI 9.8 to 19.6). ^ The study population was a cross-sectional group of active duty pregnant women who represent the target population of all female soldiers that deliver viable infants in the Army. Using a survey based on previous studies, intendedness of pregnancy at conception was retrospectively determined. Unintended births are further characterized as mistimed or unwanted. Demographic and other exposures were described bivariately. Associations were evaluated using measures of relative risk and chi-square analysis. ^ The results of the research indicate that in the study population, race/ethnicity is not associated with unintended pregnancy and non-commissioned officers had a lower rate of unintended pregnancy than other rank groupings. ^

Quality of care for uninsured type 2 diabetic patients in a financial assistance medical home model

The medically uninsured population in the United States is 16% or 42 million people and consists of a significant number of Type 2 diabetic patients which is the predominant form of diabetes with 798,000 new cases diagnosed each year. There is limited health services research on uninsured populations concerning health system measures or specific disease conditions. ^ The purpose of this investigation was to determine the impact a newly implemented health care program had on the quality of care provided to patients with Type 2 diabetes. The primary study objective was to compare the quality of care while controlling for utilization, and health status of patients in the new program to their status during the previous financial assistance program. The research design was a retrospective matched-pairs design. The study population consisted of 225 patients who received medical care during 1996 and 1997 at the University Health System in San Antonio, Texas. ^ Six quality of care measures individually failed to demonstrate a statistically significant difference when compared between the two periods. However, an index measure reflecting the number of patients who received all six of the quality of care measures demonstrated a statistically significant increase in 1997 (p-value < 0.05). In 1996, 8 patients (2.6%) received all six medical management components. In 1997, 38 patients (16.8%) received all six medical management components. Four regression models were analyzed; two out of the four models demonstrated inconsistent results based on the program membership variable. ^ It is concluded that there has been a small effect of the Carelink program demonstrated by an increase from 8 to 38 patients receiving all quality of care components for Type 2 diabetics at the UHS. It is recommended that additional research be conducted in order to evaluate the quality of care provided to Type 2 diabetic patients. ^

Changes in blood lipids and their associations with changes in measures of height, weight and body mass index from age 8 to 18 years: Project Heartbeat!

A variety of studies indicate that the process of athrosclerosis begins in childhood. There was limited information on the association of the changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids in school age children and adolescents. Previous longitudinal studies of children typically with insufficient frequency of observation could not provide sound inference on the dynamics of change in blood lipids. The aims of this analysis are (1) to document the sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids (TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG); (2) to evaluate the relationship of changes in anthropometric variables, such as height, weight and BMI, to blood lipids from age 8 to 18 years. ^ Project HeartBeat! is a longitudinal study designed to examine the patterns of serial change in major cardiovascular risk factors. Cohort of three different age levels, 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline, with a total of 678 participants were enrolled. Each member of these cohorts was examined three times per year for up to four years. ^ Sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids; demonstrated the complex and polyphasic changes in TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG longitudinally. The trajectory curves of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C with age showed curvilinear patterns of change. The velocity change in TC, HDL-C and LDL-C showed U-shaped curves for non-Blacks, and nearly linear lines in velocity of TG for both Blacks and non-Blacks. ^ The relationship of changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids was evaulated by adding height, weight, or BMI and associated interaction terms separately to the basic age-sex models. Height or height gain had a significant negative association with changes in TC, LDL-C and HDL-C. Weight or BMI gain showed positive associations with TC, LDL-C and TC, and a negative relationship with HDL-C. ^ Dynamic changes of blood lipids in school age children and adolescents observed from this analysis suggested that using fixed screening criteria under the current NCEP guidelines for all ages 2–19 may not be appropriate for this age group. The association of increasing BMI or weight to an adverse blood lipid profile found in this analysis also indicated that weight or BMI monitoring could be a future intervention to be implemented in the pediatric population. ^

The role of drug use in welfare to work: Evidence from Houston, Texas

The purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence of drug abuse among welfare recipients in Houston, TX and compare the work activities and employment barriers of drug abusers in order to better understand the potential effects of welfare reform for this population. Four hypotheses were tested comparing the work activities and employment barriers of drug abusers to others on welfare and the relative importance of drug abuse and employment barriers in predicting work activity. ^ This cross-sectional study examined the characteristics and work activities of 447 welfare recipients (81 drug abusers and 366 non-abusers) who were surveyed between October 1998 and April 1999 in Houston, TX. Subjects were introduced and recruited to participate in the study through a flyer, door to door visits, and peer driven recruitment/referral. ^ About 18% were found to be drug abusers, which is consistent with the national average (10–33%) among welfare recipients. Compared to others on welfare, drug abusers were less involved in work activities, and had more employment barriers. Employment barriers were found to be more predictive of welfare to work activities than drug abuse. The results suggest that alleviating employment barriers should be stressed in programs aimed at welfare recipients with drug abuse problems. ^

Lindane induced cellular dysfunction in MDCK cells: The role of the peripheral benzodiazepine receptor

The central nervous system GABAA/Benzodiazepine (GABAA/BZD) receptors are targets for many pharmaceutical agents and several classes of pesticides. Lindane is an organochlorine pesticide, although banned from production in the U.S. since 1977, still imported for use as an insecticide and pharmaceutically to control ectoparasites (ATSDR, 1994). Lindane functions as a GABA/BZD receptor antagonist within the central nervous system (CNS). Outside of the CNS, peripheral BZD receptors have been localized to the distal tubule of the kidney. Previous research in our laboratory has shown that incubation of renal cortical slices with lindane can produce an increase in kallikrein leakage, suggesting a distal tubular effect. In this study, Madin Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cells were used as an in vitro system to assess the toxicity of lindane. This purpose of this study was to determine if interactions between a renal distal tubular BZD-like receptor and lindane could lead to perturbations in renal distal cellular chloride (Cl−) transport and mitochondrial dysfunction and ultimately, cellular death. ^ Pertubations in renal chloride transport were measured indirectly by determining if lindane altered cell function responsiveness following osmotic stress. MDCK cells pre-treated with lindane and then subjected to osmotic stress remained swollen for up to 12 hours post-stress. Lindane-induced dysfunction was assessed through stress protein induction measured by Western Blot analysis. Lindane pretreatment delayed Heat Shock Protein 72 (HSP72) induction by 36 hours in osmotically stressed cells. Pretreatment with 1 × 10 −5 M LIN followed by osmotic stress elevated p38 and Stress Activated Protein Kinase (SAPK/JNK) at 15 minutes which declined at 30 minutes. Lindane appeared to have no effect on Endoplasmic Reticulum Related Kinase (ERK) induction. Lindane did not effect osmotically stressed LLC-PKI cells, a control cell line. ^ Lindane-treated MDCK cells did not exhibit necrosis. Instead, apoptosis was observed in lindane-treated MDCK cells in both time- and dose-dependent manners. LLC-PKI cells were not affected by LIN treatment. ^ To better understand the mechanism of lindane-induced apoptosis, mitochondrial function was measured. No changes in cytochrome c release or mitochondrial membrane potential were observed suggesting the mitochondrial pathway was not involved in lindane-induced apoptosis. ^ Further research will need to be conducted to determine the mechanism of lindane-induced adverse cellular effects. ^

Non-sexual household transmission of HCV infection: A cohort study

Objective. This study was designed to determine the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection among non-sexual household contacts of HCV-infected women and to describe the association between HCV infection and potential household risk factors in order to examine whether non-sexual household contact is a route of transmission for HCV infection. ^ Methods. A baseline prevalence survey included 409 non-sexual household contacts of 241 HCV-infected index women in the Houston area from 1994 to 1997. A total of 470 non-sexual household contacts with no evidence of HCV infection at baseline investigation were re-assessed approximately three years after baseline enrollment. Information on potential risk factors was collected through face to face interviews and blood samples were tested for anti-HCV with ELISA-2 and Matrix/RIBA-2. The relationships between HCV infection and potential risk factors were examined by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. ^ Results. The overall prevalence of anti-HCV positivity among 409 non-sexual household contacts was 4.4%. The highest prevalence of anti-HCV was found in parents (19.5%), followed by siblings (8.1%) and other relatives (5.6%); the children had the lowest prevalence of anti-HCV (1.2%). The univariate analysis showed that IDU, blood transfusion, tattoos, sexual contact with injecting drug users, more than 3 sexual partners in a lifetime, history of a STD, incarceration, previous hepatitis, and contact with hepatitis patients were significantly associated with HCV infection, however, sharing razors, nail clippers, toothbrushes, gum, food or beds with HCV-infected women, and history of dialysis, health care job, body piercing, and homosexual activities were not. Multivariate analysis found that IDU (OR = 221.7 with 95% CI of 22.8 to 2155.7) and history of a STD (OR = 11.7 with 95% CI of 1.2 to 113.1) were the only variables significantly associated with HCV infection. No such associations remained for other risk factors. The three-year cumulative incidence of anti-HCV among 352 non-sexual household contacts of HCV-infected women was zero. ^ Conclusion. This study has provided no evidence that non-sexual household contact is a likely route of transmission for HCV infection. The risk of sharing razors, nail clippers, toothbrushes, gum, food and/or beds with HCV-infected women is not evident and has not been shown to be the likely mode for HCV spread among family members. This study does suggest that IDU is the likely route of transmission for most HCV infection. Association also has been shown independently with a history of STD. The prevalence of anti-HCV among non-sexual household contacts was low. Exposure to common parenteral risk factors and sexual transmission between sexual partners may account for HCV spread among household members of HCV-infected persons. ^

Prevalence and determinants of type 2 diabetes among Filipino Americans in Houston metropolitan statistical area, Texas

Diabetes in adults (type 2) has emerged as a world health problem. Prevalence and risk factors have been found to vary in different populations. The wide range of prevalence rates worldwide indicates the importance of genetic and environmental factors in the etiology of the disease. The few available studies suggest that Filipinos are among the higher-risk groups for developing diabetes. This cross-sectional study estimated the overall prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes among Filipino Americans, ages 20–74 years and residents of Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas, to be 16.1%. The observed high prevalence was associated with age, sex, family history of diabetes, obesity, region of birth; and, in women, gestational diabetes and income. The diabetic Filipino Americans had a higher proportion of parental history of diabetes, medical history of hypertension, and history of smoking; were physically less active, but generally non-obese, compared with the United States diabetic population. ^