Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

A simplified method for referring the energy and overheating performance of window design

This paper describes a simplified dynamic thermal model which simulates the energy and overheating performance of windows. To calculate artificial energy use within a room, the model employs the average illuminance method, which takes into account the daylight energy impacting upon the room by the use of hourly climate data. This tool describes the main thermal performance ( heating, cooling and overheating risk) resulting proposed a design of window. The inputs are fewer and simpler than that are required by complicated simulation programmes. The method is suited for the use of architects and engineers at the strategic phase of design, when little is available.

The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

Relaxing the Tropics to an ‘observed’ state: analysis using a simple baroclinic model

The technique of relaxation of the tropical atmosphere towards an analysis in a month-season forecast model has previously been successfully exploited in a number of contexts. Here it is shown that when tropical relaxation is used to investigate the possible origin of the observed anomalies in June–July 2007, a simple dynamical model is able to reproduce the observed component of the pattern of anomalies given by an ensemble of ECMWF forecast runs. Following this result, the simple model is used for a range of experiments on time-scales of relaxation, variables and regions relaxed based on a control model run with equatorial heating in a zonal flow. A theory based on scale analysis for the large-scale tropics is used to interpret the results. Typical relationships between scales are determined from the basic equations, and for a specified diabatic heating a chain of deductions for determining the dependent variables is derived. Different critical time-scales are found for tropical relaxation of different dependent variables to be effective. Vorticity has the longest critical time-scale, typically 1.2 days. For temperature and divergence, the time-scales are 10 hours and 3 hours, respectively. However not all the tropical fields, in particular the vertical motion, are reproduced correctly by the model unless divergence is heavily damped. To obtain the correct extra-tropical fields, it is crucial to have the correct rotational flow in the subtropics to initiate the Rossby wave propagation from there. It is sufficient to relax vorticity or temperature on a time-scale comparable or less than their critical time-scales to obtain this. However if the divergent advection of vorticity is important in the Rossby Wave Source then strong relaxation of divergence is required to accurately represent the tropical forcing of Rossby waves.

Innovation clusters: key concepts

Innovation is easier to describe than it is to systematically analyse, and easier to analyse than it is to effectively promote. Part of the problem, of course, is the imprecise way in which the activity of innovation itself is conceptualised. To achieve more precision, the logic of analysis suggests that innovation should be should be systematically analysed and then divided into rough categories to produce a working taxonomy based on a number of key dimensions. A major part of the purpose of this paper is to develop such a working taxonomy.

Regional implications of macro-economic, sectoral and company changes in the development of technopoles in Britain and France

This paper reports the proceedings of a conference held at Reading University in 1993 which addressed the issues of new technological developments at the regional and sub-regional levels in Britain and France. These new technological clusters - the `Technopoles' - are investigated in a series of papers in both English and French which examines their spatial, sectoral and economic aspects to determine what lessons can be learned from their development and what their future economic significance is likely to be. Two recurring themes are of particular significance in the papers - the link between R& D and regional development, and the different forms which innovation assumes within the various technopoles under scrutiny.

Contrasting effects of dwarfing alleles and nitrogen availability on mineral concentrations in wheat grain

Background and aim Concentrations of essential minerals in plant foods may have declined in modern high-yielding cultivars grown with large applications of nitrogen fertilizer (N). We investigated the effect of dwarfing alleles and N rate on mineral concentrations in wheat. Methods Gibberellin (GA)-insensitive reduced height (Rht) alleles were compared in near isogenic wheat lines. Two field experiments comprised factorial combinations of wheat variety backgrounds, alleles at the Rht-B1 locus (rht-B1a, Rht-B1b, Rht-B1c), and different N rates. A glasshouse experiment also included Rht-D1b and Rht-B1b+D1b in one background. Results In the field, depending on season, Rht-B1b increased crop biomass, dry matter (DM) harvest index, grain yield, and the economically-optimal N rate (Nopt). Rht-B1b did not increase uptake of Cu, Fe, Mg or Zn so these minerals were diluted in grain. Nitrogen increased DM yield and mineral uptake so grain concentrations were increased (Fe in both seasons; Cu, Mg and Zn in one season). Rht-B1b reduced mineral concentrations at Nopt in the most N responsive season. In the glasshouse experiment, grain yield was reduced, and mineral concentrations increased, with Rht allele addition. Conclusion Effects of Rht alleles on Fe, Zn, Cu and Mg concentrations in wheat grain are mostly due to their effects on DM, rather than of GA-insensitivity on Nopt or mineral uptake. Increased N requirement in semi-dwarf varieties partly offsets this dilution effect.

Using HIT to deliver integrated care for the frail elderly in the UK: current barriers and future challenges

In this paper we briefly describe the results of a 3 year project examining the use of Health Information Technologies (e.g., electronic patient record systems) to deliver integrated care. In particular, we focus on one group of patient (the frail elderly) and efforts to design an e-health supported healthcare pathway (the frail elderly pathway – FEP). The aim of FEP is to bring together clinicians and staff from health and social care and allow them to share patient information. Our findings show that progress in delivering a fully-supported and working FEP has been slow, not least because of the difficulties experienced by healthcare staff in using current IT systems. In addition, there are many strategic and technical issues which remain unresolved (e.g., systems interoperability).

Impact of the quantity and flavonoid content of fruits and vegetables on markers of intake in adults with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease: the FLAVURS Trial

Purpose Limited robust randomised controlled trials investigating fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake in people at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) exist. We aimed to design and validate a dietary strategy of increasing flavonoid-rich versus flavonoid-poor F&V consumption on nutrient biomarker profile. Methods A parallel, randomised, controlled, dose–response dietary intervention study. Participants with a CVD relative risk of 1.5 assessed by risk scores were randomly assigned to one of the 3 groups: habitual (control, CT), high-flavonoid (HF) or low-flavonoid (LF) diets. While the CT group (n = 57) consumed their habitual diet throughout, the HF (n = 58) and LF (n = 59) groups sequentially increased their daily F&V intake by an additional 2, 4 and 6 portions for 6-week periods during the 18-week study. Results Compliance to target numbers and types of F&V was broadly met and verified by dietary records, and plasma and urinary biomarkers. Mean (±SEM) number of F&V portions/day consumed by the HF and LF groups at baseline (3.8 ± 0.3 and 3.4 ± 0.3), 6 weeks (6.3 ± 0.4 and 5.8 ± 0.3), 12 weeks (7.0 ± 0.3 and 6.8 ± 0.3) and 18 weeks (7.6 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.4), respectively, was similar at baseline yet higher than the CT group (3.9 ± 0.3, 4.3 ± 0.3, 4.6 ± 0.4, 4.5 ± 0.3) (P = 0.015). There was a dose-dependent increase in dietary and urinary flavonoids in the HF group, with no change in other groups (P = 0.0001). Significantly higher dietary intakes of folate (P = 0.035), non-starch polysaccharides (P = 0.001), vitamin C (P = 0.0001) and carotenoids (P = 0.0001) were observed in both intervention groups compared with CT, which were broadly supported by nutrient biomarker analysis. Conclusions The success of improving nutrient profile by active encouragement of F&V intake in an intervention study implies the need for a more hands-on public health approach.

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Profiling dehydrin gene sequence and physiological parameters in drought tolerant and susceptible spring wheat cultivars.

Physiological and yield traits such as stomatal conductance (mmol m-2s-1), Leaf relative water content (RWC %) and grain yield per plant were studied in a separate experiment. Results revealed that five out of sixteen cultivars viz. Anmol, Moomal, Sarsabz, Bhitai and Pavan, appeared to be relatively more drought tolerant. Based on morphophysiological results, studies were continued to look at these cultivars for drought tolerance at molecular level. Initially, four well recognized primers for dehydrin genes (DHNs) responsible for drought induction in T. durum L., T. aestivum L. and O. sativa L. were used for profiling gene sequence of sixteen wheat cultivars. The primers amplified the DHN genes variably like Primer WDHN13 (T. aestivum L.) amplified the DHN gene in only seven cultivars whereas primer TdDHN15 (T. durum L.) amplified all the sixteen cultivars with even different DNA banding patterns some showing second weaker DNA bands. Third primer TdDHN16 (T. durum L.) has shown entirely different PCR amplification prototype, specially showing two strong DNA bands while fourth primer RAB16C (O. sativa L.) failed to amplify DHN gene in any of the cultivars. Examination of DNA sequences revealed several interesting features. First, it identified the two exon/one intron structure of this gene (complete sequences were not shown), a feature not previously described in the two database cDNA sequences available from T. aestivum L. (gi|21850). Secondly, the analysis identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), positions in gene sequence. Although complete gene sequence was not obtained for all the cultivars, yet there were a total of 38 variable positions in exonic (coding region) sequence, from a total gene length of 453 nucleotides. Matrix of SNP shows these 37 positions with individual sequence at positions given for each of the 14 cultivars (sequence of two cultivars was not obtained) included in this analysis. It demonstrated a considerable diversity for this gene with only three cultivars i.e. TJ-83, Marvi and TD-1 being similar to the consensus sequence. All other cultivars showed a unique combination of SNPs. In order to prove a functional link between these polymorphisms and drought tolerance in wheat, it would be necessary to conduct a more detailed study involving directed mutation of this gene and DHN gene expression.

Solar cycle 24: what is the sun up to?

March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But perhaps what was most remarkable about these events was how unremarkable they were compared to others during the space-age, attracting attention only because solar activity had been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum, and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and that could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar-terrestrial science and the mitigation of space weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons.

Solar influence on global and regional climates

The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast—but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when one looks at regional and season variations around the global means. In particular, recent research indicates that winters in Eurasia may have some dependence on the Sun, with more cold winters occurring when the solar activity is low. Advances in modelling ‘‘top-down’’ mechanisms, whereby stratospheric changes influence the underlying troposphere, offer promising explanations of the observed phenomena. In contrast, the suggested modulation of low-altitude clouds by galactic cosmic rays provides an increasingly inadequate explanation of observations.