Evaluation of modelled regional water balance using lake status data: a comparison of 6ka simulations with the NCAR CCM

Variations in lake area and depth reflect climatically induced changes in the water balance of overflowing as well as closed lakes. A new global data base of lake status has been assembled, and is used to compare two simulations for 6 ka (6000 yr ago) made with successive R15 versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Simulated water balance was expressed as anomalies of annual precipitation minus evaporation (P-E); observed water balance as anomalies of lake status. Comparisons were made visually, by comparing regional averages, and by a statistic that compares the signs of simulated P-E anomalies (smoothly interpolated to the lake sites) with the status anomalies. Both CCM0 and CCM1 showed enhanced Northern-Hemisphere monsoons at 6 ka. Both underestimated the effect, but CCM1 fitted the spatial patterns better. In the northern mid- and high-latitudes the two versions differed more, and fitted the data less satisfactorily. CCM1 performed better than CCM0 in North America and central Eurasia, but not in Europe. Both models (especially CCM0) simulated excessive aridity in interior Eurasia. The models were systematically wrong in the southern mid-latitudes. Problems may have been caused by inadequate treatment of changes in sea-surface conditions in both models. Palaeolake status data will continue to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of modelling improvements.

What is the right balance for performance and isolation with virtualization in HPC?

The use of virtualization in high-performance computing (HPC) has been suggested as a means to provide tailored services and added functionality that many users expect from full-featured Linux cluster environments. The use of virtual machines in HPC can offer several benefits, but maintaining performance is a crucial factor. In some instances the performance criteria are placed above the isolation properties. This selective relaxation of isolation for performance is an important characteristic when considering resilience for HPC environments that employ virtualization. In this paper we consider some of the factors associated with balancing performance and isolation in configurations that employ virtual machines. In this context, we propose a classification of errors based on the concept of “error zones”, as well as a detailed analysis of the trade-offs between resilience and performance based on the level of isolation provided by virtualization solutions. Finally, a set of experiments are performed using different virtualization solutions to elucidate the discussion.

The role of the harmonic vector average in motion integration

The local speeds of object contours vary systematically with the cosine of the angle between the normal component of the local velocity and the global object motion direction. An array of Gabor elements whose speed changes with local spatial orientation in accordance with this pattern can appear to move as a single surface. The apparent direction of motion of plaids and Gabor arrays has variously been proposed to result from feature tracking, vector addition and vector averaging in addition to the geometrically correct global velocity as indicated by the intersection of constraints (IOC) solution. Here a new combination rule, the harmonic vector average (HVA), is introduced, as well as a new algorithm for computing the IOC solution. The vector sum can be discounted as an integration strategy as it increases with the number of elements. The vector average over local vectors that vary in direction always provides an underestimate of the true global speed. The HVA, however, provides the correct global speed and direction for an unbiased sample of local velocities with respect to the global motion direction, as is the case for a simple closed contour. The HVA over biased samples provides an aggregate velocity estimate that can still be combined through an IOC computation to give an accurate estimate of the global velocity, which is not true of the vector average. Psychophysical results for type II Gabor arrays show perceived direction and speed falls close to the IOC direction for Gabor arrays having a wide range of orientations but the IOC prediction fails as the mean orientation shifts away from the global motion direction and the orientation range narrows. In this case perceived velocity generally defaults to the HVA.

Conversations on Twitter: structure, pace, balance

Twitter is both a micro-blogging service and a platform for public conversation. Direct conversation is facilitated in Twitter through the use of @’s (mentions) and replies. While the conversational element of Twitter is of particular interest to the marketing sector, relatively few data-mining studies have focused on this area. We analyse conversations associated with reciprocated mentions that take place in a data-set consisting of approximately 4 million tweets collected over a period of 28 days that contain at least one mention. We ignore tweet content and instead use the mention network structure and its dynamical properties to identify and characterise Twitter conversations between pairs of users and within larger groups. We consider conversational balance, meaning the fraction of content contributed by each party. The goal of this work is to draw out some of the mechanisms driving conversation in Twitter, with the potential aim of developing conversational models.

Do real balance effects invalidate the Taylor principle in closed and open economies?

This paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast-based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a Neo-Wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects. We show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the Taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium. The problem is exacerbated in open economies, particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer-price, rather than domestic-price, inflation. However, determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance--elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77� N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kgm−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kgm−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kgm−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kgm−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

Measuring ion temperatures and studying the ion energy balance in the high-latitude ionosphere

Data are presented for a nighttime ion heating event observed by the EISCAT radar on 16 December 1988. In the experiment, the aspect angle between the radar beam and the geomagnetic field was fixed at 54.7°, which avoids any ambiguity in derived ion temperature caused by anisotropy in the ion velocity distribution function. The data were analyzed with an algorithm which takes account of the non-Maxwellian line-of-sight ion velocity distribution. During the heating event, the derived spectral distortion parameter (D∗) indicated that the distribution function was highly distorted from a Maxwellian form when the ion drift increased to 4 km s−1. The true three-dimensional ion temperature was used in the simplified ion balance equation to compute the ion mass during the heating event. The ion composition was found to change from predominantly O4 to mainly molecular ions. A theoretical analysis of the ion composition, using the MSIS86 model and published values of the chemical rate coefficients, accounts for the order-of-magnitude increase in the atomic/molecular ion ratio during the event, but does not successfully explain the very high proportion of molecular ions that was observed.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.