Air-fleet and maintenance facility planning

This paper describes the use of simulation in the planning and operation of a small fleet of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider a single flying base, where the opera tionally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair depot, where the planes are overhauled. The measure of effectiveness used is "system availability, the percentage of airplanes that are usable. The system is modeled in GPSS as a cyclic queue process. The simulation model is used to perform sensitivity analyses and to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model on which the simulation model is based.

Air Fleet and Facility Planning via Optimal Control Models

A study is presented which is aimed at developing techniques suitable for effective planning and efficient operation of fleets of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. An important aspect of fleet management, the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet, is considered. For analysis purposes, it is assumed that the planes operate in a single flying-base repair-depot environment. The perennial problem of resource allocation for fleet and facility buildup that faces planners is modeled and solved as an optimal control problem. These models contain two "policy" variables representing investments in aircraft and repair facilities. The feasibility of decentralized control is explored by assuming the two policy variables are under the control of two independent decisionmakers guided by different and not often well coordinated objectives.

Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is ‘ availability ’, which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of ‘ operationally ready ’ and ‘ scheduled overhaul ’ phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a ‘ small ’ fleet essentially in terms of the important ‘ traffic ’ parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate.A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.

Management of northern fur seals on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska, 1786-1981

This paper includes information about the Pribilof Islands since their discovery by Russia in 1786 and the population of northern fur seals, Cailorhinus ursinus, that return there each summer to bear young and to breed. Russia exterminated the native population of sea Oilers, Enhydra lulris, here and nearly subjected the northern fur seal to the same fate before providing proper protection. The northern fur seal was twice more exposed to extinction following the purchase of Alaska and the Pribilof Islands by the United States in 1867. Excessive harvesting was stopped as a result of strict management by the United States of the animals while on land and a treaty between Japan, Russia, Great Britain (for Canada), and the United States that provided needed protection at sea. In 1941, Japan abrogated this treaty which was replaced by a provisional agreement between Canada and the United States that protected the fur seals in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Japan, the U.S.S.R., Canada, and the United States again insured the survival of these animals with ratification in 1957 of the "Interim Convention on the Conservation of North Pacific Fur Seals," which is still in force. Under the auspices of this Convention, the United States launched an unprecedented manipulation of the resource through controlled removal during 1956-68 of over 300,000 females considered surplus. The biological rationale for the reduction was that production of fewer pups would result in a higher pregnancy rate and increased survival, which would, in turn, produce a sustained annual harvest of 55,000-60,000 males and 10,000-30,000 females. Predicted results did not occur. The herd reduction program instead coincided with the beginning of a decline in the number of males available for harvest. Suspected but unproven causes were changes in the toll normally accounted for by predation, disease, adverse weather, and hookworms. Depletion of the animals' food supply by foreign fishing Heets and the entanglement of fur seals in trawl webbing and other debris discarded at sea became a prime suspect in altering the average annual harvest of males on the Pribilof Islands from 71,500 (1940-56) to 40,000 (1957-59) to 36,000 (1960) to 82,000 (1961) and to 27,347 (1972-81). Thus was born the concept of a research control area for fur seals, which was agreed upon by members of the Convention in 1973 and instituted by the United States on St. George Island beginning in 1974. All commercial harvesting of fur seals was stopped on St. George Island and intensive behavioral studies were begun on the now unharvested population as it responds to the moratorium and attempts to reach its natural ceiling. The results of these and other studies here and on St. Paul Island are expected to eventually permit a comparison between the dynamics of unharvested and harvested populations, which should in turn permit more precise management of fur seals as nations continue to exploit the marine resources of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. (PDF file contains 32 pages.)

Adaptive Neural Networks for Control of Movement Trajectories Invariant under Speed and Force Rescaling

This article describes two neural network modules that form part of an emerging theory of how adaptive control of goal-directed sensory-motor skills is achieved by humans and other animals. The Vector-Integration-To-Endpoint (VITE) model suggests how synchronous multi-joint trajectories are generated and performed at variable speeds. The Factorization-of-LEngth-and-TEnsion (FLETE) model suggests how outflow movement commands from a VITE model may be performed at variable force levels without a loss of positional accuracy. The invariance of positional control under speed and force rescaling sheds new light upon a familiar strategy of motor skill development: Skill learning begins with performance at low speed and low limb compliance and proceeds to higher speeds and compliances. The VITE model helps to explain many neural and behavioral data about trajectory formation, including data about neural coding within the posterior parietal cortex, motor cortex, and globus pallidus, and behavioral properties such as Woodworth's Law, Fitts Law, peak acceleration as a function of movement amplitude and duration, isotonic arm movement properties before and after arm-deafferentation, central error correction properties of isometric contractions, motor priming without overt action, velocity amplification during target switching, velocity profile invariance across different movement distances, changes in velocity profile asymmetry across different movement durations, staggered onset times for controlling linear trajectories with synchronous offset times, changes in the ratio of maximum to average velocity during discrete versus serial movements, and shared properties of arm and speech articulator movements. The FLETE model provides new insights into how spina-muscular circuits process variable forces without a loss of positional control. These results explicate the size principle of motor neuron recruitment, descending co-contractive compliance signals, Renshaw cells, Ia interneurons, fast automatic reactive control by ascending feedback from muscle spindles, slow adaptive predictive control via cerebellar learning using muscle spindle error signals to train adaptive movement gains, fractured somatotopy in the opponent organization of cerebellar learning, adaptive compensation for variable moment-arms, and force feedback from Golgi tendon organs. More generally, the models provide a computational rationale for the use of nonspecific control signals in volitional control, or "acts of will", and of efference copies and opponent processing in both reactive and adaptive motor control tasks.

Modelling high particulate matter and ozone episodes in the Trans-Manche region

There is concern in the Cross-Channel region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) and Kent (Great Britain), regarding the extent of atmospheric pollution detected in the area from emitted gaseous (VOC, NOx, S02)and particulate substances. In particular, the air quality of the Cross-Channel or "Trans-Manche" region is highly affected by the heavily industrial area of Dunkerque, in addition to transportation sources linked to cross-channel traffic in Kent and Calais, posing threats to the environment and human health. In the framework of the cross-border EU Interreg IIIA activity, the joint Anglo-French project, ATTMA, has been commissioned to study Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere. Using ground monitoring data from UK and French networks and with the assistance of satellite images the project aims to determine dispersion patterns. and identify sources responsible for the pollutants. The findings of this study will increase awareness and have a bearing on future air quality policy in the region. Public interest is evident by the presence of local authorities on both sides of the English Channel as collaborators. The research is based on pollution transport simulations using (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) an Eulerian Receptor Based model. This paper is concerned with part (a), the LPD Models. Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models are often used to numerically simulate the dispersion of a passive tracer in the planetary boundary layer by calculating the Lagrangian trajectories of thousands of notional particles. In this contribution, the project investigated the use of two widely used particle dispersion models: the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the model FLEXPART. In both models forward tracking and inverse (or·. receptor-based) modes are possible. Certain distinct pollution episodes have been selected from the monitor database EXPER/PF and from UK monitoring stations, and their likely trajectory predicted using prevailing weather data. Global meteorological datasets were downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive. Part of the difficulty in identifying pollution sources arises from the fact that much of the pollution outside the monitoring area. For example heightened particulate concentrations are to originate from sand storms in the Sahara, or volcanic activity in Iceland or the Caribbean work identifies such long range influences. The output of the simulations shows that there are notable differences between the formulations of and Hysplit, although both models used the same meteorological data and source input, suggesting that the identification of the primary emissions during air pollution episodes may be rather uncertain.

GB Non-native Species Information Portal: documenting the arrival of non-native species in Britain

Information on non-native species (NNS) is often scattered among a multitude of sources, such as regional and national databases, peer-reviewed and grey literature, unpublished research projects, institutional datasets and with taxonomic experts. Here we report on the development of a database designed for the collation of information in Britain. The project involved working with volunteer experts to populate a database of NNS (hereafter called “the species register”). Each species occupies a row within the database with information on aspects of the species’ biology such as environment (marine, freshwater, terrestrial etc.), functional type (predator, parasite etc.), habitats occupied in the invaded range (using EUNIS classification), invasion pathways, establishment status in Britain and impacts. The information is delivered through the Great Britain Non-Native Species Information Portal hosted by the Non-Native Species Secretariat. By the end of 2011 there were 1958 established NNS in Britain. There has been a dramatic increase over time in the rate of NNS arriving in Britain and those becoming established. The majority of established NNS are higher plants (1,376 species). Insects are the next most numerous group (344 species) followed by non-insect invertebrates (158 species), vertebrates (50 species), algae (24 species) and lower plants (6 species). Inventories of NNS are seen as an essential tool in the management of biological invasions. The use of such lists is diverse and far-reaching. However, the increasing number of new arrivals highlights both the dynamic nature of invasions and the importance of updating NNS inventories.

Conservative Interventions for mobile Pes Planus in Adults: a systematic review

Antecedentes. Pes Adulto planus (pie plano) es un problema común encontrado por muchos profesionales de la salud. A pesar de la percepción de que el pie plano puede causar dolor y deteriorar su función, la disponibilidad y el uso generalizado de diversos tratamientos, no hay consenso sobre la estrategia óptima de tratamiento. Objetivo. Evaluar la efectividad de las intervenciones conservadoras (no quirúrgicos) para pie plano en los adultos. Método. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de la literatura. Esto incluye: el Registro Cochrane Central de Ensayos Controlados; los Juicios CMSG Especializados Registro; una búsqueda electrónica se realizó utilizando MEDLINE (1960 a junio de 2012), EMBASE (1980 a junio de 2012), y CINAHL (1982 - junio de 2012). Revistas especializadas, listas de referencias de ensayos y artículos de revisión se realizaron búsquedas manuales. Criterios de selección: Ensayos aleatorios o cuasialeatorios de intervenciones de tratamiento para el pie plano en los adultos. Se excluyeron los ensayos que incluyeron patologías específicas como el dolor plantar del talón, las fracturas por sobrecarga de los metatarsianos, disfunción del tendón tibial posterior-, fracturas de tobillo, patologías del pie reumatoide, enfermedades neuromusculares y las complicaciones del pie diabético. Recopilación y análisis de datos: Dos autores seleccionaron de forma independiente los resultados de la búsqueda para identificar a aquellos que satisfacen los criterios de inclusión y evaluaron la calidad de los incluidos mediante una lista de control basado en la Evaluación de la Colaboración Cochrane de Riesgo. Esta herramienta se centró en el riesgo de la selección, el rendimiento, la detección, la heterogeneidad y el sesgo de notificación. Resultados. Cuatro ensayos, con 140 sujetos, cumplieron los criterios de inclusión para la revisión. Los cuatro fueron juzgados como de alto riesgo de sesgo en al menos un área, y también estaban en riesgo de sesgo incierto en al menos otra zona. Todos anotaron altamente en relación al sesgo de deserción, debido al corto seguimiento tiempos y diseños experimentales utilizados. Los datos no se agruparon debido al alto nivel de heterogeneidad identificada en las intervenciones evaluadas, los participantes seleccionados y medir los resultados. Los resultados de un estudio sugieren que después de cuatro semanas de uso ortesis puede resultar en una mejora significativa en vaivén lateral medio, y pueden resultar en una mejor, aunque no significativa, en general relacionados con la calidad de vida de los pies (Roma 2004). Un estudio (Redmond 2009) sugiere que su efecto sobre la distribución de la presión plantar en el pie puede no depender de si son personalizados o dispositivos prefabricados. Aunque este estudio se identificaron cambios significativos en algunas variables de presión plantar tanto con la costumbre y dispositivos prefabricados, otro (Esterman 2005) no encontró ningún efecto significativo de longitud ¾ ortesis prefabricadas sobre el dolor, la incidencia de lesiones, salud pie o de calidad de vida en un grupo de reclutas de la fuerza aérea. El cuarto estudio (Jung 2009) sugiere que el ejercicio de los músculos intrínsecos del pie puede mejorar el efecto de las ortesis. A pesar de estos resultados, ya que cada estudio incurrió riesgo de sesgo en al menos un área no se pueden sacar conclusiones

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjöll caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe but as a geological event, it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peat and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the last 7000 years. Within this period ten tephra layers have been identified in the Faroe Islands, 14 in Great Britain, 11 in Germany, 38 in Scandinavia and 33 in Ireland. Seven ash fall events have been historically documented prior to the Eyjafjöll 2010 event. Ash fall events appear to be more frequent in the last 1500 years, but it is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artefact of the records themselves or the way they have been generated. In the last 1,000 years, volcanic ash clouds reached Northern Europe with a mean return interval of 53 ± 8 years (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 112 years). Modelling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 year period there is a 17% probability of tephra fallout event in Northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

Known risk factors for violence predict 12-month-old infants' aggressiveness with peers

This study tested the hypothesis that 12-month-old infants' use of force against peers is associated with known risk factors for violence. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, which included laboratory observations of firstborn British infants (N = 271) during simulated birthday parties. No gender differences in aggressiveness were observed. The infants' observed aggressiveness was significantly correlated with mothers' mood disorder during pregnancy and with mothers' history of conduct problems. Infants' observed aggressiveness was correlated with parents' ratings of infants' anger and aggression, which were also predicted by mothers' mood disorder and history of conduct problems. Our findings indicate that infants at risk for serious aggression can already be identified when the motor ability to use physical force first enters the human repertoire.

Motion Management for Radical Radiotherapy in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Intrafraction tumour motion is an issue that is of increased interest in the era of image-guided radiotherapy. It is particularly relevant for non-small cell lung cancer, for which a number of recent developments are in use to aid with motion management in the delivery of radical radiotherapy. The ability to deliver hypofractionated ablative doses, such as in stereotactic radiotherapy, has been aided by improvements in the ability to analyse tumour motion and amend treatment delivery. In addition, accounting for tumour motion can enable dose escalation to occur by reducing the normal tissue being irradiated by virtue of a reduction in target volumes. Motion management for lung tumours incorporates five key components: imaging, breath-hold techniques, abdominal compression, respiratory tracking and respiratory gating. These will be described, together with the relevant benefits and associated complexities. Many studies have described improved dosimetric coverage and reduced normal tissue complication probability rates when using motion management techniques. Despite the widespread uptake of many of these techniques, there is a paucity of literature reporting improved outcome in overall survival and local control for patients whenever motion management techniques are used. This overview will review the extent of lung tumour motion, ways in which motion is detected and summarise the key methods used in motion management.

Defining target volumes for stereotactic ablative radiotherapy of early-stage lung tumours: a comparison of three-dimensional 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and four-dimensional computed tomography.:PETCT versus 4DCT for SABR in Early Stage NSCLC

AIMS: High local control rates are achieved in stage I lung cancer using
stereotactic ablative radiotherapy. Target delineation is commonly based on
four-dimensional computed tomography (CT) scans. Target volumes defined by
positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) are compared with those defined by four-dimensional CT and conventional ('three-dimensional')
(18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) PET/CT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: For 16 stage I non-small cell lung cancer tumours, six
approaches for deriving PET target volumes were evaluated: manual contouring,
standardised uptake value (SUV) absolute threshold of 2.5, 35% of maximum SUV
(35%SUV(MAX)), 41% of SUV(MAX) (41%SUV(MAX)) and two different source to
background ratio techniques (SBR-1 and SBR-2). PET-derived target volumes were compared with the internal target volume (ITV) from the modified maximum
intensity projection (MIP(MOD) ITV). Volumetric and positional correlation was
assessed using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC).

RESULTS: PET-based target volumes did not correspond to four-dimensional CT-based target volumes. The mean DSC relative to MIP(MOD) ITV were: PET manual = 0.64, SUV2.5 = 0.64, 35%SUV(MAX) = 0.63, 41%SUV(MAX) = 0.57. SBR-1 = 0.52, SBR-2 =0.49. PET-based target volumes were smaller than corresponding MIP ITVs.

CONCLUSIONS: Conventional three-dimensional (18)F-FDG PET-derived target volumes for lung stereotactic ablative radiotherapy did not correspond well with those derived from four-dimensional CT, including those in routine clinical use
(MIP(MOD) ITV). Caution is required in using three-dimensional PET for motion
encompassing target volume delineation.

Air pollutant contamination and acidification of surface waters in the North York Moors, UK: Multi-proxy evidence from the sediments of a moorland pool

Despite the extensive geographical range of palaeolimnological studies designed to assess the extent of surface water acidification in the United Kingdom during the 1980s, little attention was paid to the status of surface waters in the North York Moors (NYM). In this paper, we present sediment core data from a moorland pool in the NYM that provide a record of air pollution contamination and surface water acidification. The 41-cm-long core was divided into three lithostratigraphic units. The lower two comprise peaty soils and peats, respectively, that date to between approximately 8080 and 6740 cal. BP. The uppermost unit comprises peaty lake muds dating from between approximately ad 1790 and the present day (ad 2006). The lower two units contain pollen dominated by forest taxa, whereas the uppermost unit contains pollen indicative of open landscape conditions similar to those of the present. Heavy metal, spheroidal carbonaceous particle, mineral magnetics and stable isotope analysis of the upper sediments show clear evidence of contamination by air pollutants derived from fossil-fuel combustion over the last c. 150years, and diatom analysis indicates that the naturally acidic pool became more acidic during the 20th century. We conclude that the exceptionally acidic surface waters of the pool at present (pH=c. 4.1) are the result of a long history of air pollution and not because of naturally acidic local conditions. We argue that the highly acidic surface waters elsewhere in the NYM are similarly acidified and that the lack of evidence of significant recovery from acidification, despite major reductions in the emissions of acidic gases that have taken place over the last c. 30years, indicates the continuing influence of pollutant sulphur stored in catchment peats, a legacy of over 150years of acid deposition.