(Table 1) Water storage changes of the 33 world's largest river basins between 2002-2009

Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km**3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002-2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of -0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ~0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, physiology, morphology of larval sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus in a laboratory experiment

Ocean warming and ocean acidification, both consequences of anthropogenic production of CO2, will combine to influence the physiological performance of many species in the marine environment. In this study, we used an integrative approach to forecast the impact of future ocean conditions on larval purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) from the northeast Pacific Ocean. In laboratory experiments that simulated ocean warming and ocean acidification, we examined larval development, skeletal growth, metabolism and patterns of gene expression using an orthogonal comparison of two temperature (13°C and 18°C) and pCO2 (400 and 1100 µatm) conditions. Simultaneous exposure to increased temperature and pCO2 significantly reduced larval metabolism and triggered a widespread downregulation of histone encoding genes. pCO2 but not temperature impaired skeletal growth and reduced the expression of a major spicule matrix protein, suggesting that skeletal growth will not be further inhibited by ocean warming. Importantly, shifts in skeletal growth were not associated with developmental delay. Collectively, our results indicate that global change variables will have additive effects that exceed thresholds for optimized physiological performance in this keystone marine species.

Radiocarbon dating on cold-water corals, grain size, Corg, and benthic foraminfera assemblage of two sediment cores from the Ionian Sea

Continuous sedimentary records from an eastern Mediterranean cold-water coral ecosystem thriving in intermediate water depths (~600 m) reveal a temporary extinction of cold-water corals during the Early to Mid Holocene from 11.4-5.9 cal kyr BP. Benthic foraminiferal assemblage analysis shows low-oxygen conditions of 2 ml l**-1 during the same period, compared to bottom-water oxygen values of 4-5 ml l**-1 before and after the coral-free interval. The timing of the corals' demise coincides with the sapropel S1 event, during which the deep eastern Mediterranean basin turned anoxic. Our results show that during the sapropel S1 event low oxygen conditions extended to the rather shallow depths of our study site in the Ionian Sea and caused the cold-water corals temporary extinction. This first evidence for the sensitivity of cold-water corals to low oceanic oxygen contents suggests that the projected expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones resulting from global change will threaten cold-water coral ecosystems in low latitudes in the same way that ocean acidification will do in the higher latitudes.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and dark respiration and photosynthetic capacity during experiments with coral Acropora formosa, 2010

Ocean acidification is expected to lower the net accretion of coral reefs yet little is known about its effect on coral photophysiology. This study investigated the effect of increasing CO2 on photosynthetic capacity and photoprotection in Acropora formosa. The photoprotective role of photorespiration within dinoflagellates (genus Symbiodinium) has largely been overlooked due to focus on the presence of a carbon-concentrating mechanism despite the evolutionary persistence of a Form II Rubisco. The photorespiratory fixation of oxygen produces phosphoglycolate that would otherwise inhibit carbon fixation though the Calvin cycle if it were not converted to glycolate by phosphoglycolate phosphatase (PGPase). Glycolate is then either excreted or dealt with by enzymes in the photorespiratory glycolate and/or glycerate pathways adding to the pool of carbon fixed in photosynthesis. We found that CO2 enrichment led to enhanced photoacclimation (increased chlorophyll a per cell) to the subsaturating light levels. Light-enhanced dark respiration per cell and xanthophyll de-epoxidation increased, with resultant decreases in photosynthetic capacity (Pnmax) per chlorophyll. The conservative CO2 emission scenario (A1B; 600-790 ppm) led to a 38% increase in the Pnmax per cell whereas the 'business-as-usual' scenario (A1F1; 1160-1500 ppm) led to a 45% reduction in PGPase expression and no change in Pnmax per cell. These findings support an important functional role for PGPase in dinoflagellates that is potentially compromised under CO2 enrichment.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and maximum growth rates of Skeletonema marinoi and Alexandrium ostenfeldii, toxin composition of Alexandrium ostenfeldii in a laboratory experiment

Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24 °C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain-specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain-specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth-slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short-term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.

Benthic foraminifera, stable isotope record and sedimentology of Holocene sediments in the Skagerrak

A high-resolution multi-proxy study of core MD99-2286 reveals a highly variable hydrographic environment in the Skagerrak from 9300 cal. yr BP to the present. The study includes foraminiferal faunas, stable isotopes and sedimentary parameters, as well as temperature and salinity reconstructions of a ca. 29 m long radiocarbon-dated core record. The multivariate technique fuzzy c-means was applied to the foraminiferal counts, and it was extremely valuable in defining subtle heterogeneities in the foraminiferal fauna data corresponding to hydrographic changes. The major mid-Holocene (Littorina) transgression, led to flooding of large former land areas in the North Sea, the opening of the English Channel and Danish straits and initiation of the modern circulation system. This is reflected by fluctuating C/N values and an explosive bloom of Hyalinea balthica. A slight indication of ameliorated conditions between 8000-5750 cal. yr BP is related to the Holocene Thermal Maximum. A subsequent increase in fresh water/Baltic water influence between 5750-4350 cal. yr BP is reflected by dominance of Bulimina marginata and depleted d18O-values. The Neoglacial cooling (after 4350 cal. yr BP) is seen in the Skagerrak as enhanced turbidity, increasing TOC-values and short-term changes in an overall Cassidulina laevigata dominated fauna suggesting a prevailing influence of Atlantic waters. This is in agreement with increased strength of westerly winds, as recorded for this period. The last 2000 years were also dominated by Atlantic Water conditions with generally abundant nutrient supply. However, during warm periods, particularly the Medieval Warm Period and the modern warming, the area was subject to a restriction in the supply of nutrients and/or the nutrient supply had a more refractory character.

Multicentennial resolution proxy records from splicings of MD96-2080 and MD02-2594, Agulhas Bank Splice (ABS)

[1] Planktonic d18O and Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperature (SST) records from the Agulhas Corridor off South Africa display a progressive increase of SST during glacial periods of the last three climatic cycles. The SST increases of up to 4°C coincide with increased abundance of subtropical planktonic foraminiferal marker species which indicates a progressive warming due to an increased influence of subtropical waters at the core sites. Mg/Ca-derived SST maximizes during glacial maxima and glacial Terminations to values about 2.5°C above full-interglacial SST. The paired planktonic d18O and Mg/Ca-derived SST records yield glacial seawater d18O anomalies of up to 0.8 per mill, indicating measurably higher surface salinities during these periods. The SST pattern along our record is markedly different from a UK'37-derived SST record at a nearby core location in the Agulhas Corridor that displays SST maxima only during glacial Terminations. Possible explanations are lateral alkenone advection by the vigorous regional ocean currents or the development of SST contrasts during glacials in association with seasonal changes of Agulhas water transports and lateral shifts of the Agulhas retroflection. The different SST reconstructions derived from UK'37 and Mg/Ca pose a significant challenge to the interpretation of the proxy records and demonstrate that the reconstruction of the Agulhas Current and interocean salt leakage is not as straightforward as previously suggested.