Quasi-biennial oscillation and tracer distributions in a coupled chemistry-climate model

[ 1] We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM), which generates its own wind and temperature quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to study the effect of coupling on the QBO and to examine the QBO signals in stratospheric trace gases, particularly ozone. Radiative coupling of the interactive chemistry to the underlying general circulation model tends to prolong the QBO period and to increase the QBO amplitude in the equatorial zonal wind in the lower and middle stratosphere. The model ozone QBO agrees well with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite observations in terms of vertical and latitudinal structure. The model captures the ozone QBO phase change near 28 km over the equator and the column phase change near +/- 15 degrees latitude. Diagnosis of the model chemical terms shows that variations in NOx are the main chemical driver of the O-3 QBO around 35 km, i.e., above the O-3 phase change.

Revised IR spectrum, radiative efficiency and global warming potential of nitrogen trifluoride

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is an industrial gas used in the semiconductor industry as a plasma etchant and chamber cleaning gas. NF3 is an alternative to other potent greenhouse gases and its usage has increased markedly over the last decade. In recognition of its increased relevance and to aid planning of future usage we report an updated radiative efficiency and global warming potentials for NF3. Laboratory measurements give an integrated absorption cross section of 7.04 x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 200 2000 cm(-1). The radiative efficiency is calculated to be 0.21 Wm(-2) ppbv(-1) and the 100 year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, is 17200. These values are approximately 60% higher than previously published estimates, primarily reflecting the higher infrared absorption cross-sections reported here.

A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings

A full troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere global circulation model is used in a set of idealised experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric flow to improvements in the equatorial zonal winds. The model shows significant sensitivity to variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere, the imposition of SAO and QBO like variability in this region advances the timing of midwinter sudden warmings by about one month. Perturbations to the lower equatorial stratosphere are mainly found to influence early winter polar variability. These results suggest that it is important to pay attention to the capability of models to simulate realistic variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere.

Evaluation of ozone and water vapor fields from the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-40 during 1991-1999 in comparison with UARS satellite and MOZAIC aircraft observations

[ 1] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) ozone and water vapor reanalysis fields during the 1990s have been compared with independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). In addition, ERA-40 has been compared with aircraft data from the Measurements of Ozone and Water Vapour by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program. Overall, in comparison with the values derived from the independent observations, the upper stratosphere in ERA-40 has about 5 - 10% more ozone and 15 - 20% less water vapor. This dry bias in the reanalysis appears to be global and extends into the middle stratosphere down to 40 hPa. Most of the discrepancies and seasonal variations between ERA-40 and the independent observations occur within the upper troposphere over the tropics and the lower stratosphere over the high latitudes. ERA-40 reproduces a weaker Antarctic ozone hole, and of less vertical extent, than the independent observations; values in the ozone maximum in the tropical stratosphere are lower for the reanalysis. ERA-40 mixing ratios of water vapor are considerably larger than those for MOZAIC, typically by 20% in the tropical upper troposphere, and they may exceed 60% in the lower stratosphere over high latitudes. The results imply that the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ECMWF reanalysis system is too fast, as is also evidenced by deficiencies in the way ERA-40 reproduces the water vapor "tape recorder'' signal in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, the paper examines the biases and their temporal variation during the 1990s in the way ERA-40 compares to the independent observations. We also discuss how the evaluation results depend on the instrument used, as well as on the version of the data.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1)

[ 1] A rapid increase in the variety, quality, and quantity of observations in polar regions is leading to a significant improvement in the understanding of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes and their representation in global climate models. We assess the simulation of sea ice in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) against the latest available observations. The HadGEM1 sea ice component uses elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics, multiple ice thickness categories, and zero-layer thermodynamics. The model evaluation is focused on the mean state of the key variables of ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and albedo. The model shows good agreement with observational data sets. The variability of the ice forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation is also found to agree with observations.