Beyond long-term averages: making biological sense of a rapidly changing world

Biological responses to climate change are typically communicated in generalized terms such as poleward and altitudinal range shifts, but adaptation efforts relevant to management decisions often require forecasts that incorporate the interaction of multiple climatic and nonclimatic stressors at far smaller spatiotemporal scales. We argue that the desire for generalizations has, ironically, contributed to the frequent conflation of weather with climate, even within the scientific community. As a result, current predictions of ecological responses to climate change, and the design of experiments to understand underlying mechanisms, are too often based on broad-scale trends and averages that at a proximate level may have very little to do with the vulnerability of organisms and ecosystems. The creation of biologically relevant metrics of environmental change that incorporate the physical mechanisms by which climate trains patterns of weather, coupled with knowledge of how organisms and ecosystems respond to these changes, can offer insight into which aspects of climate change may be most important to monitor and predict. This approach also has the potential to enhance our ability to communicate impacts of climate change to nonscientists and especially to stakeholders attempting to enact climate change adaptation policies.

Scaling laws of ambush predator 'waiting' behaviour are tuned to a common ecology

The decisions animals make about how long to wait between activities can determine the success of diverse behaviours such as foraging, group formation or risk avoidance. Remarkably, for diverse animal species, including humans, spontaneous patterns of waiting times show random ‘burstiness’ that appears scale-invariant across a broad set of scales. However, a general theory linking this phenomenon across the animal kingdom currently lacks an ecological basis. Here, we demonstrate from tracking the activities of 15 sympatric predator species (cephalopods, sharks, skates and teleosts) under natural and controlled conditions that bursty waiting times are an intrinsic spontaneous behaviour well approximated by heavy-tailed (power-law) models over data ranges up to four orders of magnitude. Scaling exponents quantifying ratios of frequent short to rare very long waits are species-specific, being determined by traits such as foraging mode (active versus ambush predation), body size and prey preference. A stochastic–deterministic decision model reproduced the empirical waiting time scaling and species-specific exponents, indicating that apparently complex scaling can emerge from simple decisions. Results indicate temporal power-law scaling is a behavioural ‘rule of thumb’ that is tuned to species’ ecological traits, implying a common pattern may have naturally evolved that optimizes move–wait decisions in less predictable natural environments.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Effect of ocean acidification and elevated fCO2 on trace gas production by a Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community

The Baltic Sea is a unique environment as the largest body of brackish water in the world. Acidification of the surface oceans due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is an additional stressor facing the pelagic community of the already challenging Baltic Sea. To investigate its impact on trace gas biogeochemistry, a large-scale mesocosm experiment was performed off Tvärminne Research Station, Finland in summer 2012. During the second half of the experiment, dimethylsulphide (DMS) concentrations in the highest fCO2 mesocosms (1075–1333 μatm) were 34 % lower than at ambient CO2 (350 μatm). However the net production (as measured by concentration change) of seven halocarbons analysed was not significantly affected by even the highest CO2 levels after 5 weeks exposure. Methyl iodide (CH3I) and diiodomethane (CH2I2) showed 15 % and 57 % increases in mean mesocosm concentration (3.8 ± 0.6 pmol L−1 increasing to 4.3 ± 0.4 pmol L−1 and 87.4 ± 14.9 pmol L−1 increasing to 134.4 ± 24.1 pmol L−1 respectively) during Phase II of the experiment, which were unrelated to CO2 and corresponded to 30 % lower Chl-ɑ concentrations compared to Phase I. No other iodocarbons increased or showed a peak, with mean chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) concentrations measured at 5.3 (± 0.9) pmol L−1 and iodoethane (C2H5I) at 0.5 (± 0.1) pmol L−1. Of the concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3; mean 88.1 ± 13.2 pmol L−1), dibromomethane (CH2Br2; mean 5.3 ± 0.8 pmol L−1) and dibromochloromethane (CHBr2Cl, mean 3.0 ± 0.5 pmol L−1), only CH2Br2 showed a decrease of 17 % between Phases I and II, with CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl showing similar mean concentrations in both Phases. Outside the mesocosms, an upwelling event was responsible for bringing colder, high CO2, low pH water to the surface starting on day t16 of the experiment; this variable CO2 system with frequent upwelling events implies the community of the Baltic Sea is acclimated to regular significant declines in pH caused by up to 800 μatm fCO2. After this upwelling, DMS concentrations declined, but halocarbon concentrations remained similar or increased compared to measurements prior to the change in conditions. Based on our findings, with future acidification of Baltic Sea waters, biogenic halocarbon emissions are likely to remain at similar values to today, however emissions of biogenic sulphur could significantly decrease from this region.

A method to assess the sensitivity of sedimentary communities to fishing activities.

1.Methods of sensitivity assessment to identify species and habitats in need of management or protection have been available since the 1970s. 2.The approach to sensitivity assessment adopted by the Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) assumes that the sensitivity of a community or biotope is dependent on the species within it. However, the application of this approach to sedimentary communities, especially offshore, is complex because of a lack of knowledge of the structural or functional role of many sedimentary species. 3.This paper describes a method to assess the overall sensitivity of sedimentary communities, based on the intolerance and recoverability of component species to physical disturbance. A range of methods were applied to identify the best combinations of abundant, dominant or high biomass species for the assessment of sensitivity in the sedimentary communities examined. 4.Results showed that reporting the most frequent species' sensitivity assessment, irrespective of the four methods used to select species, consistently underestimated the total sensitivity of the community. In contrast, reporting the most sensitive assessment from those species selected resulted in a range of biotope sensitivities from very low to very high, that was better able to discriminate between the sensitivities of the communities examined. 5.The assumptions behind the methodology, its limitations and potential application are discussed.

Estucoqueratosis. A propósito de un caso

La estucoqueratosis es una patología dérmica que cursa con tumoraciones queratósicas asintomáticas, benignas, blanco-grisáceas y de pequeño tamaño. Éstas suelen localizarse en las extremidades (especialmente en las inferiores) en torno al tobillo. Su etiología es desconocida y su diagnóstico se realiza mediante una correcta anamnesis y exploración física ya que la morfología, localización y edad de presentación son claves para poder establecer un diagnóstico diferencial con otras afecciones aunque en caso necesario también se puede recurrir a la biopsia. Constituye una entidad clínica con especial interés podológico dada su frecuente aparición en las extremidades inferiores, de ahí la necesidad de conocerla y de saber realizar un correcto diagnóstico diferencial. Presentamos el caso de un varón de 45 años sin antecedentes dermatológicos que presenta estucoqueratosis en la extremidad inferior y que acude al Servicio de Dermatología del Hospital Naval de Ferrol.

Analysis of the footprint in school age of 8-10 years old

Biomechanical problems in children, is an important subject currently, existing controversy in different areas, for example, the majority of children have a flattened footprint, or the hypermobility joint is linked to a musculoskeletal pain. The objective of the study was to determine what kind of footprint is most frequent in school-age children (8-10 years) in the area of Plasencia. This was taken as a sign 50 children, of whom 28 were males and 22 females. All the subjects in the study underwent an assessment of footprint planted in static as well as an exploration of different parameters through inspection in a standing position (formula digital, rearfoot). The results show that excavated footprint is present in a 72% cases of the population, 16% was belonging to an excavated footprint in which we find a higher percentage of weight related.For the digital formula we find that the most common is the Egyptian foot by 40% of the cases and that the prevalence in the rearfoot, is a normal hindfoot. In relation with the hypermobility joint, we check that it is more common in girls and that none of them presents an association to musculoskeletal pain. As a future line we could establish a more comprehensive study with new techniques and valuingchild’s statics and dynamics, to have a more accurate study of the different variables in the sample population studied.

Tight junctional abnormality in multiple sclerosis white matter affects all calibres of vessel and is associated with blood-brain barrier leakage and active demyelination

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) hyperpermeability in multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with lesion pathogenesis and has been linked to pathology in microvascular tight junctions (TJs). This study quantifies the uneven distribution of TJ pathology and its association with BBB leakage. Frozen sections from plaque and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) in 14 cases were studied together with white matter from six neurological and five normal controls. Using single and double immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy, the TJ-associated protein zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1) was examined across lesion types and tissue categories, and in relation to fibrinogen leakage. Confocal image data sets were analysed for 2198 MS and 1062 control vessels. Significant differences in the incidence of TJ abnormalities were detected between the different lesion types in MS and between MS and control white matter. These were frequent in oil-red O (ORO)+ active plaques, affecting 42% of vessel segments, but less frequent in ORO- inactive plaques (23%), NAWM (13%), and normal (3.7%) and neurological controls (8%). A similar pattern was found irrespective of the vessel size, supporting a causal role for diffusible inflammatory mediators. In both NAWM and inactive lesions, dual labelling showed that vessels with the most TJ abnormality also showed most fibrinogen leakage. This was even more pronounced in active lesions, where 41% of vessels in the highest grade for TJ alteration showed severe leakage. It is concluded that disruption of TJs in MS, affecting both paracellular and transcellular paths, contributes to BBB leakage. TJ abnormality and BBB leakage in inactive lesions suggests either failure of TJ repair or a continuing pathological process. In NAWM, it suggests either pre-lesional change or secondary damage. Clinically inapparent TJ pathology has prognostic implications and should be considered when planning disease-modifying therapy

Abnormal endothelial tight junctions in active lesions and normal-appearing white matter in multiple sclerosis

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown, demonstrable in vivo by enhanced MRI is characteristic of new and expanding inflammatory lesions in relapsing remitting and chronic progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). Subtle leakage may also occur in primary progressive MS. However, the anatomical route(s) of BBB leakage have not been demonstrated. We investigated the possible involvement of interendothelial tight junctions (TJ) by examining the expression of TJ proteins (occludin and ZO-1 ) in blood vessels in active MS lesions from 8 cases of MS and in normal-appearing white (NAWM) matter from 6 cases. Blood vessels (10-50 per frozen section) were scanned using confocal laser scanning microscopy to acquire datasets for analysis. TJ abnormalities manifested as beading, interruption, absence or diffuse cytoplasmic localization of fluorescence, or separation of junctions (putative opening) were frequent (affecting 40% of vessels) in oil red-O-positive active plaques but less frequent in NAWM (15%), and in normal (

Differences in expression of junctional adhesion molecule-A and beta catenin in multiple sclerosis brain tissue: increasing evidence for the role of tight junction pathology

Previously we have employed antibodies to the tight junction (TJ)-associated proteins ZO-1 and occludin to describe endothelial tight junction abnormalities, in lesional and normal appearing white matter, in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). This work is extended here by use of antibodies to the independent TJ-specific proteins and junctional adhesion molecule A & B (JAM-A, JAM-B). We have also assessed the expression in MS of ß-catenin, a protein specific to the TJ-associated adherens junction. Immunocytochemistry and semiquantitative confocal microscopy for JAM-A and ß-catenin was performed on snap-frozen sections from MS cases (n = 11) and controls (n = 6). Data on 1,443 blood vessels was acquired from active lesions (n = 13), inactive lesions (n = 13), NAWM (n = 20) and control white matter (n = 13). In MS abnormal JAM-A expression was found in active (46%) and inactive lesions (21%), comparable to previous data using ZO-1. However, a lower level of TJ abnormality was found in MS NAWM using JAM-A (3%) compared to ZO-1 (13%). JAM-B was strongly expressed on a small number of large blood vessels in control and MS tissues but at too low a level for quantitative analysis. By comparison with the high levels of abnormality observed with the TJ proteins, the adherens junction protein ß-catenin was normally expressed in all MS and control tissue categories. These results confirm, by use of the independent marker JAM-A, that TJ abnormalities are most frequent in active white matter lesions. Altered expression of JAM-A, in addition to affecting junctional tightness may also both reflect and affect leukocyte trafficking, with implications for immune status within the diseased CNS. Conversely, the adherens junction component of the TJ, as indicated by ß-catenin expression is normally expressed in all MS and control tissue categories.

Characterisation and evaluation of novel surfactant bacterial anti-adherent coatings for endotracheal tubes designed for the prevention of ventilator-associated pneumonia.

It is accepted that ventilator-associated pneumonia is a frequent cause of morbidity and mortality in intensive care patients. This study describes the physicochemical properties of novel surfactant coatings of the endotracheal tube and the resistance to microbial adherence of surfactant coated endotracheal tube polyvinylchloride (PVC). Organic solutions of surfactants containing a range of ratios of cholesterol and lecithin (0:100, 25:75, 50:50, 75:25, dissolved in dichloromethane) were prepared and coated onto endotracheal tube PVC using a multiple dip-coating process. Using modulated temperature differential scanning calorimetry it was confirmed that the binary surfactant systems existed as physical mixtures. The surface properties of both surfactant-coated and uncoated PVC, following treatment with either pooled human saliva or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS), were characterised using dynamic contact angle analysis. Following treatment with saliva, the contact angles of PVC decreased; however, those of the coated biomaterials were unaffected, indicating different rates and extents of macromolecular adsorption from saliva onto the coated and uncoated PVC. The advancing and receding contact angles of the surfactant-coated PVC were unaffected by sonication, thereby providing evidence of the durability of the coatings. The cell surface hydrophobicity and zeta potentials of isolates of Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, following treatment with either saliva or PBS, and their adherence to uncoated and surfactant-coated PVC (that had been pre-treated with saliva) were examined. Adherence of S. aureus and Ps. aeruginosa to surfactant-coated PVC at each successive time period (0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8 h) was significantly lower than to uncoated PVC, the extent of the reduction frequently exceeding 90%. Interestingly, the microbial anti-adherent properties of the coatings were dependent on the lecithin content. Based on the impressive microbial anti-adherence properties and durability of the surfactant coating on PVC following dip coatings, it is proposed that these systems may usefully reduce the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia when employed as luminal coatings of the endotracheal tube.

High concentrations of dexamethasone suppresses the proliferation but not the differentiation of further maturation of human osteoblast precursor in vitro: relevance to glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis

Objective. The use of glucocorticoids (GCs) in the treatment of RA is a frequent cause of bone loss. In vitro, however, this same class of steroids has been shown to promote the recruitment and/or maturation of primitive osteogenic precursors present in the colony forming unit-fibroblastic (CFU-F) fraction of human bone and marrow. In an effort to reconcile these conflicting observations, we investigated the effects of the synthetic GC dexamethasone (Dx) on parameters of growth and osteogenic differentiation in cultures of bone marrow stromal cells derived from a large cohort of adult human donors (n=30). Methods. Marrow suspensions were cultured in the absence and presence of Dx at concentrations between 10 pm and 1 µm. After 28 days we determined the number and diameter of colonies formed, the total number of cells, the surface expression of receptors for selected growth factors and extracellular matrix proteins and, based on the expression of the developmental markers alkaline phosphatase (AP) and the antigen recognized by the STRO-1 monoclonal antibody, the proportion of cells undergoing osteogenic differentiation and their extent of maturation. Results. At a physiologically equivalent concentration, Dx had no effect on the adhesion of CFU-F or on their subsequent proliferation, but did promote their osteogenic differentiation and further maturation. These effects were independent of changes in the expression of the receptors for fibroblast growth factors, insulin-like growth factor 1, nerve growth factor, platelet-derived growth factors and parathyroid hormone/parathyroid hormone-related protein, but were associated with changes in the number of cells expressing the 2 and 4, but not ß1, integrin subunits. At supraphysiological concentrations, the effects of Dx on the osteogenic recruitment and maturation of CFU-F and their progeny were maintained but at the expense of a decrease in cell number. Conclusions. A decrease in the proliferation of osteogenic precursors, but not in their differentiation or maturation, is likely to be a key factor in the genesis of GC-induced bone loss.

The Agent-Rule-Class Framework for Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent systems have become increasingly mature, but their appearance does not make the traditional OO approach obsolete. On the contrary, OO methodologies can benefit from the principles and tools designed for agent systems. The Agent-Rule-Class (ARC) framework is proposed as an approach that builds agents upon traditional OO system components and makes use of business rules to dictate agent behaviour with the aid of OO components. By modelling agent knowledge in business rules, the proposed paradigm provides a straightforward means to develop agent-oriented systems based on the existing object-oriented systems and offers features that are otherwise difficult to achieve in the original OO systems. The main outcome of using ARC is the achievement of adaptivity. The framework is supported by a tool that ensures agents implement up-to-date requirements from business people, reflecting desired current behaviour, without the need for frequent system rebuilds. ARC is illustrated with a rail track example.

Delayed failure of a deep cutting in lodgement till

Recent research on the delayed failure of cuttings in clay clearly recognises and predicts progressive delayed failure of deep cuttings. This is due to a combination of strain-softening, weathering, dissipation of negative excess pore water pressure generated at the time of excavation, and frequent occurrence of prolonged periods of wet weather. There have been several slope failures of this kind in Northern Ireland. This paper discusses a case study based on a failure of a deep cutting, excavated at a slope of 1 in 2, on the A1 near Dromore (County Down) in Northern Ireland. The cutting was in lodgement till, a stiff, heavily overconsolidated clay. The failure occurred approximately 30 years after the cutting was excavated, following a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. An analysis of the failure, together with laboratory test data on soil samples taken from the site, confirmed that by using long-term soil strength parameters the factor of safety of this slope was unity. The conclusion of the analysis is that slopes excavated in this soil should be designed (and assessed) on long-term strength parameters.