Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Geographical distribution and intra-domiciliary capture of sylvatic triatomines in La Convención province, Cusco, Peru

The geographical distribution and intra-domiciliary capture of sylvatic triatomines in three districts of the province of La Convención, Cusco, Peru are presented. In the district of Vilcabamba, eight adults of Rhodnius pictipes and five adults of Panstrongylus geniculatus were found. In the district of Ocobamba, 19 adults, 14 nymphs, and eggs of P. rufotuberculatus were found. In the district of Echarate, six adults and 10 nymphs of Eratyrus mucronatus, an adult of R. pictipes and P. geniculatus, and a nymph of P. rufotuberculatus were also found. The geographical distribution of E. mucronatus has extended to Cusco. This is the first report in Peru of household colonization by this triatomine.

High prevalence of dna from non-H. pylori helicobacters in the gastric mucosa of venezuelan pet dogs and its histological alterations

Non-H. pylori helicobacters (NHPH) have been demonstrated as gastric spiral-shaped bacteria in specimens obtained from dogs; however, their roles in the pathogenesis of upper gastrointestinal disease have not yet been clearly established. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs and its association with histopathology. Helicobacter was detected through histopathological techniques, PCR, and FISH analysis from fundic biopsies of twenty dogs with or without signs of gastrointestinal disease. PCR and FISH were based on partial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Nineteen dogs showed mild to marked gastritis in the fundus, and only one dog had a healthy gastric mucosa. NHPH DNA was detected in 18 dogs with gastritis and one with normal gastric mucosa. However, there was no significant correlation between the presence of NHPH DNA and the degree of gastritis. These results show a high prevalence of NHPH DNA in the gastric mucosa of dogs from Venezuela. Further studies are necessary to determine a possible association between a specific NHPH species and the degree of gastritis.

Avaliação Não Invasiva da Pressão Venosa Central por Ecocardiografia em Cuidados Intensivos. Particularidades nos Doentes com Dilatação do Ventículo Direito e Exacerbação de Doença Pulmonar Crónica

Objectivos: Determinar a possibilidade de avaliação não invasiva da pressão venosa central (PVC) através da análise da veia cava inferior (VCI), obtida por ecocardiografia transtorácica (ETT). Desenho: Estudo prospectivo com 3 anos de duração. Local: Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos Polivalente(UCIP) de 16 camas. Métodos: Estudados doentes admitidos numa UCIP nos quais se avaliou a PVC em simultâneo com exame ETT que, para além da visualização da VCI, consistiu na obtenção da dimensão das cavidades cardíacas e função sistólica do ventrículo esquerdo. Para a correlação foram utilizados testes estatísticos paramétricos e não paramétricos. Resultados: Admitidos 560 doentes com registo simultâneo de PVC e ETT e incluídos 477 doentes em que foi possível visualizar a VCI, com idade média de 62,6 ±17,3 anos, média de internamento de 11,9 ± 18,7 dias, um índice APACHE II médio de 23,9 ± 8,9 e SAPS II médio de 55,7 ± 20,4. Por análise de regressão linear verificou-se uma relação entre a PVC e a dimensão máxima da VCI (p=0,013), o índice da VCI (p=0,001) e a presença de ventilação mecânica (p=0,002). A correlação linear entre a PVC e a dimensão máxima da VCI e respectivo índice foi de 0,34 e 0,44. Por teste de qui-quadrado, verificou-se uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre os seguintes intervalos de valores: índice da VCI <25% e PVC> 13mmHg; índice da VCI entre 26 e 50% e PVC entre 8 e 12mmHg; índice da VCI> 51% e PVC> 7mmHg; dimensão máxima da VCI> 20mmHg e PVC> 13 mmHg; dimensão máxima da VCI> 10mm e PVC> 7mmHg. Nos doentes com dilatação do ventrículo direito (VD) observou-se uma relação mais fraca entre a PVC <7mmHg e a dimensão máxima da VCI <10mm; nos doentes admitidos por exacerbação de doença pulmonar crónica verificou-se uma correlação fraca entre a PVC <7mmHg e o índice da VCI> 50%. A dimensão máxima da VCI, mas não o seu índice, correlacionou-se com a dilatação do VD e AD. Conclusões: A análise da VCI por ETT revelou-se útil na avaliação qualitativa da PVC em doentes admitidos numa UCIP. Em doentes com dilatação do VD e admitidos por exacerbação de doença pulmonar crónica, os métodos avaliados não foram fidedignos para valores baixos de PVC. A dilatação da VCI traduz melhor a cronicidade da doença, enquanto o índice da VCI reflecte melhor o estado de volemia.

Yellow fever epizootics in non-human primates, São Paulo state, Brazil, 2008-2009

Since 2000, the expansion of Sylvatic Yellow Fever (YF) has been observed in the southeast of Brazil, being detected in areas considered silent for decades. Epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) are considered sentinel events for the detection of human cases. It is important to report epizootic events that could have impact on the conservation status of susceptible species. We describe the epizootics in NHPs, notified in state of São Paulo, Brazil, between September 2008 to August 2009. Ninety-one epizootic events, involving 147 animals, were reported in 36 counties. Samples were obtained from 65 animals (44.2%). Most of the epizootics (46.6%) were reported between March and April, the same period during which human cases of YF occurred in the state. Biological samples were collected from animals found dead and were sent to Instituto Adolfo Lutz, in São Paulo. Two samples, collected in two counties without an indication for YF vaccination, were positive for the virus. Another 48 animals were associated with YF by clinical-epidemiological linkage with laboratory confirmed cases. Because the disease in human and NHPs occurred in the same period, the detection of the virus in NHPs did not work as sentinel, but aided in the delineation of new areas of risk.

Aprendizagem contínua - Novas conquistas - Projeto de intervenção desenvolvido com idosos numa Academia Sénior inserida num Centro de Dia

O presente relatório vem traduzir a configuração e o desenvolvimento de um projeto assente na metodologia de Investigação-Ação Participativa, com o objetivo de alcançar uma melhoria na qualidade de vida das pessoas idosas através da disciplina de ‘Cidadania Ativa’ inserida numa modalidade de Educação Não Formal de Adultos – ‘Academia Sénior’. Neste seguimento, foram utilizados vários métodos e técnicas de investigação que permitiram ao investigador, juntamente com os participantes implicados, obter uma visão mais holística sob o que os rodeia, recolhendo e analisando um conjunto de informações, que possibilitaram a identificação de diferentes problemas, necessidades e potencialidades dos próprios sujeitos. Após a construção do conhecimento sob a realidade e da resultante priorização de problemas/necessidades, como demanda um projeto de intervenção, sucedem as ações constituídas por um conjunto de atividades que procuram dar resposta aos objetivos orientadores do projeto. Todo este planeamento, com bases fixas na Educação e Intervenção Social, provém de um projeto que vem explanar a importância da Educação para a Cidadania, uma vez que surge a incumbência dos participantes (idosos) refletirem sobre os seus problemas numa dimensão generalizada, capazes de mergulhar até ao foro pessoal, institucional e diferentes campos sociais para que, autonomamente, se organizem e possam dar resolução aos mesmos. Ainda, nesta lógica, este projeto, contribuiu para a participação ativa dos idosos na resolução dos problemas institucionais, denotando consequentemente a transformação pessoal dos sujeitos. Importa referir ainda que todo este projeto e o conjunto de processos inerentes ao mesmo estiveram em constante (re)construção.

Which “place and non-place” do women occupy in social economy organisations?

Scientific literature has strengthened the perpetuation of inequality factors in the labour market based on gender, despite the on-going endeavour of various political bodies and legal norms against the vertical and horizontal segregation of women. National and European statistical data shows the relevance and timeless features of theories of market segmentation associated with the labour market dating back to the 70’s of the 20th century. Hence, the European Community considers as a priority in the Europe 2020 strategy, the definition of “policies to promote gender equality […] to increase labour force participation thus adding to growth and social cohesion”. If we consider that on the one hand, social economy is fairly recognised to be equated with market actors and the State for its economic and social role in tackling the current crisis, and on the other hand, that the ideals of the sector, systematised in the “Framework Law of Social Economy” (Law no. 30/2013 8th of May), particularly in article 5 proposing “the respect for the values […] of equality and non-discrimination […], justice and equity […]”, we aim to reflect on indicators that uncover a vertical and horizontal segregation in the labour market. Departing from a mixed methodological approach (extensive and intensive), subject to the topic of "Social Entrepreneurship in Portugal" in social economy organisations, we detect very high rates of employment feminisation, with a ratio of 1 man (23%) for every 3 women (77%). Women are mainly earmarked for technical and operational activities, arising from the privileged intervention areas, namely education, training, health, elderly, families, poverty, ultimately being underrepresented in statutory boards and, as such, far removed from deliberations and strategic resolutions. This is particularly visible in the existing hierarchy of functions and management practices of the responsibility of male members. Thus, it seems easily verified that the sector is travelling away from the ideals of justice and social equity, which can crystallise the "non-place" of women in the definition of a strategic direction of social economy and in the most invisible/private “place” of the organisational setting.

Long-Term Evaluation of Recurrence after Photodynamic Therapy with Topical Methyl Aminolevulinate for Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer: a Hospital-Based Study

Introduction & Objectives: Several factors may influence the decision to pursue nonsurgical modalities for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a non-invasive alternative treatment reported to have a high efficacy when using standardized protocols in Bowen’s disease (BD), superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and in thin nodular BCC. However, long-term recurrence studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of PDT with topical methylaminolevulinate (MAL) for the treatment of BD and BCC in a dermato-oncology department. Materials & Methods: All patients with the diagnosis of BD or BCC, treated with MAL-PDT from the years 2004 to 2008, were enrolled. Treatment protocol included two MAL-PDT sessions one week apart repeated at three months when incomplete response, using a red light dose of 37-40 J/cm2 and an exposure time of 8’20’’. Clinical records were retrospectively reviewed, and data regarding age, sex, tumour location, size, treatment outcomes and recurrence were registered. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi square tests, followed by survival analysis with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-eight patients (median age 71.0 years, P25;P75=30;92) with a total of 78 tumours (31 BD, 45 superficial BCC, 2 nodular BCC) and a median tumour size of 5 cm2 were treated. Overall, the median follow-up period was 43.5 months (P25;P75=0;100), and a total recurrence rate of 33.8% was observed (24.4 % for BCC vs. 45.2% for BD). Estimated recurrence rates for BCC and BD were 5.0% vs. 7.4% at 6 months, 23.4% vs. 27.9% at 12 months, and 30.0% vs. 72.4% at 60 months. Both age and diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence, with significantly higher estimated recurrence rates in patients with BD (p=0.0036) or younger than 58 years old (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence (hazard ratio) was 2.4 times higher in patients with BD compared to superficial BCC (95% CI:1.1-5.3; p=0.033), and 2.8 times higher in patients younger than 58 years old (95% CI:1.2-6.5; p=0.02). Conclusions: In the studied population, estimated recurrence rates are higher than those expected from available literature, possibly due to a longer follow-up period. To the authors’ knowledge there is only one other study with a similar follow-up period, regarding BCC solely. BD, as an in situ squamous cell carcinoma, has a higher tendency to recur than superficial BCC. Despite greater cosmesis, PDT might no be the best treatment option for young patients considering their higher risk of recurrence.

Spatio-Temporal data modeling in response to deforestation monitoring (a case study of small region in Riau Province, Indonesia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

PREVALENCE OF ANTIBODIES AGAINST INFLUENZA VIRUS IN NON-VACCINATED EQUINES FROM THE BRAZILIAN PANTANAL

The prevalence of antibodies against Equine Influenza Virus (EIV) was determined in 529 equines living on ranches in the municipality of Poconé, Pantanal area of Brazil, by means of the hemagglutination inhibition test, using subtype H3N8 as antigen. The distribution and possible association among positive animal and ranches were evaluated by the chi-square test, spatial autoregressive and multiple linear regression models. The prevalence of antibodies against EIV was estimated at 45.2% (95% CI 30.2 - 61.1%) with titers ranging from 20 to 1,280 HAU. Seropositive equines were found on 92.0% of the surveyed ranches. Equine from non-flooded ranches (66.5%) and negativity in equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) (61.7%) were associated with antibodies against EIV. No spatial correlation was found among the ranches, but the ones located in non-flooded areas were associated with antibodies against EIV. A negative correlation was found between the prevalence of antibodies against EIV and the presence of EIAV positive animals on the ranches. The high prevalence of antibodies against EIV detected in this study suggests that the virus is circulating among the animals, and this statistical analysis indicates that the movement and aggregation of animals are factors associated to the transmission of the virus in the region.

No right to perform a contract?

Thesis submitted in Trinity Term 2001 for the degree of Master of Philosophy, Worcester College, Oxford

SURVIVAL, INDUCTION AND RESUSCITATION OF Vibrio cholerae FROM THE VIABLE BUT NON-CULTURABLE STATE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, can enter into a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state in response to unfavorable conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in situ survival of V. cholerae in an aquatic environment of the Southern Caribbean Sea, and its induction and resuscitation from the VBNC state. V. cholerae non-O1, non-O139 was inoculated into diffusion chambers placed at the Cuare Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, and monitored for plate, total and viable cells counts. At 119 days of exposure to the environment, the colony count was < 10 CFU/mL and a portion of the bacterial population entered the VBNC state. Additionally, the viability decreased two orders of magnitude and morphological changes occurred from rod to coccoid cells. Among the aquatic environmental variables, the salinity had negative correlation with the colony counts in the dry season. Resuscitation studies showed significant recovery of cell cultivability with spent media addition (p < 0.05). These results suggest that V. cholerae can persist in the VBNC state in this Caribbean environment and revert to a cultivable form under favorable conditions. The VBNC state might represent a critical step in cholera transmission in susceptible areas.

Contribuição ao estudo da mistura néon-azoto a baixas temperaturas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física

Newborn Female with a Right Groin Lump

A 1 month old girl presented to the emergency department with a right groin lump and frequent crying. White and red blood cell counts were within the normal range. In addition, the ESR, CRP,liver and renal function tests were also normal.