Reduction of Transient Particulate Matter Spikes with Decision Tree Based Control

Decision trees have been proposed as a basis for modifying table based injection to reduce transient particulate spikes during the turbocharger lag period. It has been shown that decision trees can detect particulate spikes in real time. In well calibrated electronically controlled diesel engines these spikes are narrow and are encompassed by a wider NOx spike. Decision trees have been shown to pinpoint the exact location of measured opacity spikes in real time thus enabling targeted PM reduction with near zero NOx penalty. A calibrated dimensional model has been used to demonstrate the possible reduction of particulate matter with targeted injection pressure pulses. Post injection strategy optimized for near stoichiometric combustion has been shown to provide additional benefits. Empirical models have been used to calculate emission tradeoffs over the entire FTP cycle. An empirical model based transient calibration has been used to demonstrate that such targeted transient modifiers are more beneficial at lower engine-out NOx levels.

A Decision-Tree-Based Approach to Smoke Spike Detection in a Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine

Smoke spikes occurring during transient engine operation have detrimental health effects and increase fuel consumption by requiring more frequent regeneration of the diesel particulate filter. This paper proposes a decision tree approach to real-time detection of smoke spikes for control and on-board diagnostics purposes. A contemporary, electronically controlled heavy-duty diesel engine was used to investigate the deficiencies of smoke control based on the fuel-to-oxygen-ratio limit. With the aid of transient and steady state data analysis and empirical as well as dimensional modeling, it was shown that the fuel-to-oxygen ratio was not estimated correctly during the turbocharger lag period. This inaccuracy was attributed to the large manifold pressure ratios and low exhaust gas recirculation flows recorded during the turbocharger lag period, which meant that engine control module correlations for the exhaust gas recirculation flow and the volumetric efficiency had to be extrapolated. The engine control module correlations were based on steady state data and it was shown that, unless the turbocharger efficiency is artificially reduced, the large manifold pressure ratios observed during the turbocharger lag period cannot be achieved at steady state. Additionally, the cylinder-to-cylinder variation during this period were shown to be sufficiently significant to make the average fuel-to-oxygen ratio a poor predictor of the transient smoke emissions. The steady state data also showed higher smoke emissions with higher exhaust gas recirculation fractions at constant fuel-to-oxygen-ratio levels. This suggests that, even if the fuel-to-oxygen ratios were to be estimated accurately for each cylinder, they would still be ineffective as smoke limiters. A decision tree trained on snap throttle data and pruned with engineering knowledge was able to use the inaccurate engine control module estimates of the fuel-to-oxygen ratio together with information on the engine control module estimate of the exhaust gas recirculation fraction, the engine speed, and the manifold pressure ratio to predict 94% of all spikes occurring over the Federal Test Procedure cycle. The advantages of this non-parametric approach over other commonly used parametric empirical methods such as regression were described. An application of accurate smoke spike detection in which the injection pressure is increased at points with a high opacity to reduce the cumulative particulate matter emissions substantially with a minimum increase in the cumulative nitrogrn oxide emissions was illustrated with dimensional and empirical modeling.

Island Invasion by a Threatened Tree Species: Evidence for Natural Enemy Release of Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) on Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Despite its appeal to explain plant invasions, the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) remains largely unexplored for tropical forest trees. Even scarcer are ERH studies conducted on the same host species at both the community and biogeographical scale, irrespective of the system or plant life form. In Cabrits National Park, Dominica, we observed patterns consistent with enemy release of two introduced, congeneric mahogany species, Swietenia macrophylla and S. mahagoni, planted almost 50 years ago. Swietenia populations at Cabrits have reproduced, with S. macrophylla juveniles established in and out of plantation areas at densities much higher than observed in its native range. Swietenia macrophylla juveniles also experienced significantly lower leaf-level herbivory (~3.0%) than nine co-occurring species native to Dominica (8.4–21.8%), and far lower than conspecific herbivory observed in its native range (11%–43%, on average). These complimentary findings at multiple scales support ERH, and confirm that Swietenia has naturalized at Cabrits. However, Swietenia abundance was positively correlated with native plant diversity at the seedling stage, and only marginally negatively correlated with native plant abundance for stems ≥1-cm dbh. Taken together, these descriptive patterns point to relaxed enemy pressure from specialized enemies, specifically the defoliator Steniscadia poliophaea and the shoot-borer Hypsipyla grandella, as a leading explanation for the enhanced recruitment of Swietenia trees documented at Cabrits.

Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data

Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

Hepatitis C virus infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: a rapidly evolving epidemic

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has a growing impact on morbidity and mortality in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We assessed trends in HCV incidence in the different HIV transmission groups in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).