Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Unpacking the venture creation process

This paper investigates the dimensions of time and effort and how these factors impact on the venture creation process in Australia. Findings of interest in this paper include: • First and foremost business planning is used as a thinking tool within the boundaries of the firm. • Business planning is more strongly associated with firms that are more ambitious, being built by teams, draw on more experience or education. • Industry characteristics in part drive the duration required for venture creation. Manufacturing and Agriculture based firms seemingly take longer timeframes than other industries. Extended venture creation times frames are also associated with firms that aim to bring more novel concepts to market.

Fundamental understanding on the use of Bluetooth scanner as a complementary transport data

Literature is limited in its knowledge of the Bluetooth protocol based data acquisition process and in the accuracy and reliability of the analysis performed using the data. This paper extends the body of knowledge surrounding the use of data from the Bluetooth Media Access Control Scanner (BMS) as a complementary traffic data source. A multi layer simulation model named Traffic and Communication Simulation (TCS) is developed. TCS is utilised to model the theoretical properties of the BMS data and analyse the accuracy and reliability of travel time estimation using the BMS data.

Development and validation of an instrument to measure organizational cultures' support of business process management

The purpose of Business Process Management (BPM) is to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of organizational processes through improvement and innovation. Despite a common understanding that culture is an important element in these efforts, there is a dearth of theoretical and empirical research on culture as a facilitator of successful BPM. We develop the BPM culture construct and propose a validated instrument with which to measure organizational cultures’ support of BPM. The operationalization of the BPM culture concept provides a theoretical foundation for future research and a tool to assist organizations in developing a cultural environment that supports successful BPM.

A framework for cost-aware process management : cost reporting and cost prediction

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency gains for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables detailed cost reporting of business operations for decision making purposes, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Process mining, on the other hand, may provide valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded in logs by IT systems, but its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, a framework is proposed which aims to exploit the strengths of both fields in order to better support management decisions on cost control. This is achieved by automatically merging cost data with historical data from event logs for the purposes of monitoring, predicting, and reporting process-related costs. The on-demand generation of accurate, relevant and timely cost reports, in a style akin to reports in the area of management accounting, will also be illustrated. This is achieved through extending the open-source process mining framework ProM.

Understanding the actualization of affordances: A study in the process modeling context

The affordances concept describes the possibilities for goal-oriented action that technical objects offer to specified users. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. However, few studies have gone beyond contextualizing parts of the concept to a specific setting – the tip of the iceberg. In this research-in-progress paper, we report on our efforts to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances from informational objects. Specifically, we seek to extend extant theory on the origin and actualization of affordances. We develop a model that describes the process by which affordances are perceived and actualized and their dependence on information and actualization effort. We illustrate our emergent theory in the context of conceptual process models used by analysts for purposes of information systems analysis and design. We offer suggestions for operationalizing and testing this model empirically, and provide details about our design of a mixed-methods study currently in progress.

Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

The use of an electrostatic lens to enhance the efficiency of the electrospinning process

Electrospun scaffolds manufactured using conventional electrospinning configurations have an intrinsic thickness limitation, due to a charge build-up at the collector. To overcome this limitation, an electrostatic lens has been developed that, at the same relative rate of deposition, focuses the polymer jet onto a smaller area of the collector, resulting in the fabrication of thick scaffolds within a shorter period of time. We also observed that a longer deposition time (up to 13 h, without the intervention of the operator) could be achieved when the electrostatic lens was utilised, compared to 9–10 h with a conventional processing set-up and also showed that fibre fusion was less likely to occur in the modified method. This had a significant impact on the mechanical properties, as the scaffolds obtained with the conventional process had a higher elastic modulus and ultimate stress and strain at short times. However, as the thickness of the scaffolds produced by the conventional electrospinning process increased, a 3-fold decrease in the mechanical properties was observed. This was in contrast to the modified method, which showed a continual increase in mechanical properties, with the properties of the scaffold finally having similar mechanical properties to the scaffolds obtained via the conventional process at longer times. This “focusing” device thus enabled the fabrication of thicker 3-dimensional electrospun scaffolds (of thicknesses up to 3.5 mm), representing an important step towards the production of scaffolds for tissue engineering large defect sites in a multitude of tissues.

Cost-aware business process management: A research agenda

Organisations are constantly seeking cost-effective improvements for their business processes. Business process management (BPM) provides organisations with a range of methods, techniques and tools for analysing, managing, and optimising their business operations. However, BPM initiatives within organisations tend to focus on investigating time and resource utilisation inefficiencies, rather than directly on cost inefficiencies. As a result, high-level cost-based managerial decisions are still being made separately from process related decisions. This position paper describes a research agenda that envisages a holistic approach to managing the cost of business operations in a structured manner, by making an explicit link between cost and processes in all phases of the business process management life cycle. We discuss a number of research challenges that need to be addressed in order to realise such an approach as well as findings from some of the initial research outcomes. It is envisioned that the research outcomes will enable organisations to make operational and strategic decisions with confidence based on accurate and real-time cost information about their operations.

Experiential learning as a constraint-led process: an ecological dynamics perspective

In this paper we present key ideas for an ecological dynamics approach to learning that reveal the importance of learner–environment interactions to frame outdoor experiential learning.We propose that ecological dynamics provides a useful framework for understanding the interacting constraints of the learning process and for designing learning opportunities in outdoor experiential learning.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Vision-based estimation of airborne target pseudobearing rate using hidden Markov model filters

The problem of estimating pseudobearing rate information of an airborne target based on measurements from a vision sensor is considered. Novel image speed and heading angle estimators are presented that exploit image morphology, hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering, and relative entropy rate (RER) concepts to allow pseudobearing rate information to be determined before (or whilst) the target track is being estimated from vision information.

An activity and resource advisory system for manufacturing process chains selection at the early stage of product development

Designers need to consider both the functional and production process requirements at the early stage of product development. A variety of the research works found in the literature has been proposed to assist designers in selecting the most viable manufacturing process chain. However, they do not provide any assistance for designers to evaluate the processes according to the particular circumstances of their company. This paper describes a framework of an Activity and Resource Advisory System (ARAS) that generates advice about the required activities and the possible resources for various manufacturing process chains. The system provides more insight, more flexibility, and a more holistic and suitable approach for designers to evaluate and then select the most viable manufacturing process chain at the early stage of product development.

Imagining in the spatial design process

This thesis aims to expand our understanding of imagining in the spatial design disciplines of architecture and interior design. More than three decades after Lawson’s statement, the matter of “what goes on in a designer’s head”, or imagining and mental problem solving remains just as mysterious and just as pertinent, possibly more so given the social and environmental challenges facing humankind. The lines on a page, the small perspective sketches, the connection of lines and scrawled notes and other clues help us understand what may be going on in the mind of the architect or designer. However, how designers know that space intimately before it is built is not greatly understood and articulated – even by designers themselves. There is a gap in the market in terms of informed exploration of the thinking that occurs during the design process, and how this is translated into physical outcomes. In other words, what do we see in our mind’s eye during the design process? This thesis explores design thinking and design process; what we ‘see’ when we draw, what we ‘see’ when we design.