Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Analysis of a Three-Phase LSPMM by Numerical Method

Line-start permanent magnet motor (LSPMM) is a very attractive alternative to replace induction motors due to its very high efficiency and constant speed operation with load variations. However, designing this kind of hybrid motor is hard work and requires a good understanding of motor behavior. The calculation of load angle is an important step in motor design and can not be neglected. This paper uses the finite element method to show a simple methodology to calculate the load angle of a three-phase LSPMM combining the dynamic and steady-state simulations. The methodology is used to analyze a three-phase LSPMM.

Functionality of the approach of hierarchical analysis in the full cost accounting in the IRP of a metropolitan airport

This work shows the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the full cost accounting (FCA) within the integrated resource planning (IRP) process. For this purpose, a pioneer case was developed and different energy solutions of supply and demand for a metropolitan airport (Congonhas) were considered [Moreira, E.M., 2005. Modelamento energetico para o desenvolvimento limpo de aeroporto metropolitano baseado na filosofia do PIR-O caso da metropole de Sao Paulo. Dissertacao de mestrado, GEPEA/USP]. These solutions were compared and analyzed utilizing the software solution ""Decision Lens"" that implements the AHP. The final part of this work has a classification of resources that can be considered to be the initial target as energy resources, thus facilitating the restraints of the IRP of the airport and setting parameters aiming at sustainable development. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid-mixed finite element formulation for the geometrically exact analysis of three-dimensional framed structures

This paper addresses the development of a hybrid-mixed finite element formulation for the quasi-static geometrically exact analysis of three-dimensional framed structures with linear elastic behavior. The formulation is based on a modified principle of stationary total complementary energy, involving, as independent variables, the generalized vectors of stress-resultants and displacements and, in addition, a set of Lagrange multipliers defined on the element boundaries. The finite element discretization scheme adopted within the framework of the proposed formulation leads to numerical solutions that strongly satisfy the equilibrium differential equations in the elements, as well as the equilibrium boundary conditions. This formulation consists, therefore, in a true equilibrium formulation for large displacements and rotations in space. Furthermore, this formulation is objective, as it ensures invariance of the strain measures under superposed rigid body rotations, and is not affected by the so-called shear-locking phenomenon. Also, the proposed formulation produces numerical solutions which are independent of the path of deformation. To validate and assess the accuracy of the proposed formulation, some benchmark problems are analyzed and their solutions compared with those obtained using the standard two-node displacement/ rotation-based formulation.

Post-processing and visualization techniques in 2D boundary element analysis

Most post-processors for boundary element (BE) analysis use an auxiliary domain mesh to display domain results, working against the profitable modelling process of a pure boundary discretization. This paper introduces a novel visualization technique which preserves the basic properties of the boundary element methods. The proposed algorithm does not require any domain discretization and is based on the direct and automatic identification of isolines. Another critical aspect of the visualization of domain results in BE analysis is the effort required to evaluate results in interior points. In order to tackle this issue, the present article also provides a comparison between the performance of two different BE formulations (conventional and hybrid). In addition, this paper presents an overview of the most common post-processing and visualization techniques in BE analysis, such as the classical algorithms of scan line and the interpolation over a domain discretization. The results presented herein show that the proposed algorithm offers a very high performance compared with other visualization procedures.

An EFG method for the nonlinear analysis of plates undergoing arbitrarily large deformations

The applicability of a meshfree approximation method, namely the EFG method, on fully geometrically exact analysis of plates is investigated. Based on a unified nonlinear theory of plates, which allows for arbitrarily large rotations and displacements, a Galerkin approximation via MLS functions is settled. A hybrid method of analysis is proposed, where the solution is obtained by the independent approximation of the generalized internal displacement fields and the generalized boundary tractions. A consistent linearization procedure is performed, resulting in a semi-definite generalized tangent stiffness matrix which, for hyperelastic materials and conservative loadings, is always symmetric (even for configurations far from the generalized equilibrium trajectory). Besides the total Lagrangian formulation, an updated version is also presented, which enables the treatment of rotations beyond the parameterization limit. An extension of the arc-length method that includes the generalized domain displacement fields, the generalized boundary tractions and the load parameter in the constraint equation of the hyper-ellipsis is proposed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. Extending the hybrid-displacement formulation, a multi-region decomposition is proposed to handle complex geometries. A criterium for the classification of the equilibrium`s stability, based on the Bordered-Hessian matrix analysis, is suggested. Several numerical examples are presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the method. Differently from the standard finite element methods (FEM), the resulting solutions are (arbitrary) smooth generalized displacement and stress fields. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of dynamic and quasi-static results for the flow towards a well

The present analysis takes into account the acceleration term in the differential equation of motion to obtain exact dynamic solutions concerning the groundwater flow towards a well in a confined aquifer. The results show that the error contained in the traditional quasi-static solution is very small in typical situations.

Finite element analysis of concrete cracking at early age

The study of the early age concrete properties is becoming more important, as the thermal effects and the shrinkage, even in the first hours, could generate cracks, increasing the permeability of the structure and being able to induce problems of durability and functionality in the same ones. The detailed study of the stresses development during the construction process can be decisive to keep low the cracking levels. In this work a computational model, based on the finite element method, was implemented to simulate the early age concrete behavior and, specially, the evaluation of the cracking risk. The finite element analysis encloses the computational modeling of the following phenomena: chemical, thermal, moisture diffusion and mechanical which occur at the first days after the concrete cast. The developed software results were compared with experimental values found in the literature, demonstrating an excellent approach for all the implemented analysis.