A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Tenure, mobility and retention of nurses in Queensland, Australia: 2001 and 2004

Aim. Data were collected on tenure, mobility and retention of the nursing workforce in Queensland to aid strategic planning by the Queensland Nurses Union (QNU). Background. Shortages of nurses negatively affect the health outcomes of patients. Population rise is increasing the demand for nurses in Queensland. The supply of nurses is affected by recruitment of new and returning nurses, retention of the existing workforce and mobility within institutions. Methods. A self-reporting, postal survey was undertaken by the QNU members from the major employment sectors of aged care, public acute and community health and private acute and community health. Results. Only 60% of nurses had been with their current employer more than 5 years. In contrast 90% had been in nursing for 5 years or more and most (80%) expected to remain in nursing for at least another 5 years. Breaks from nursing were common and part-time positions in the private and aged care sectors offered flexibility. Conclusion. The study demonstrated a mobile nursing workforce in Queensland although data on tenure and future time in nursing suggested that retention in the industry was high. Concern is expressed for replacement of an ageing nursing population.

Pedagogical work and the 'cult of the body': Considering the role of HPE in the context of the 'new public health'

Physical education, now often explicitly identified with health in contemporary school curricula, continues to be implicated in the (re)production of the 'cult of the body'. We argue that HPE is a form of health promotion that attempts to 'make' healthy citizens of young people in the context of the 'risk society'. In our view there is still work to be done in understanding how and why physical education (as HPE) continues to be implicated in the reproduction of values associated with the cult of body. We are keen to understand why HPE continues to be ineffective in helping young people gain some measure of analytic and embodied 'distance' from the problematic aspects of the cult of the body. This paper offers an analysis of this enduring issue by using some contemporary analytic discourses including 'governmentality', 'risk society' and the 'new public health'.

Children’s respiratory health and daily particulate levels in ten non-urban communities

We conducted a study to assess the association between the acute respiratory health of children and the levels of particulates in communities near and away from active opencast coal mines. The study enrolled children aged 1–11 years from the general population of five socioeconomically matched pairs of nonurban communities in northern England. Diaries of respiratory events were collected for 1405 children, and information was collected on the consultations of 2442 children with family/general practitioners over the 6-week study periods during 1996–1997, with concurrent monitoring of particulate levels. The associations found between daily PM10 levels and respiratory symptoms were frequently small and positive and sometimes varied between communities. The magnitude of these associations were in line with those from previous studies, even though daily particulate levels were low, and the children were drawn from the general population, rather than from the population with respiratory problems. The associations among asthma reliever use, consultations with general practitioners, and daily particulate levels were of a similar strength but estimated less precisely. The strength of association between all respiratory health measures and particulate levels was similar in communities near and away from opencast coal mining sites.

Health and safety issues in contemporary dental practice

Under current workplace health and safety legislation, the owners and managers of a dental practice have a legal responsibility to provide staff with a safe working environment. In this article, the emphasis will be on four common areas of risk: posture when seated, handling scalpel blades, flooring and lighting.

Mental health nursing standards and practice indicators for Australia: a review of current literature

There are many changes and challenges facing the mental health care professional working in Australia in the 21st Century. Given the significance of their number and the considerable extent to which care is delivered by them, mental health nurses in particular must be at the forefront of the movement to enhance and improve mental health care. Mental health nurses in Australia must not only keep up with the changes, we should be setting the pace for others across the profession worldwide. The increasingly complex field of mental health nursing demands nurses who are not only equipped to face the challenges but are confident in doing so. Definitive guidelines for practice, clear expectations regarding outcomes and specific means by which to evaluate both practice and outcomes are vital. Strengthening the role and vision of mental health nursing so that there is clarity about both and highlighting core values by which to perform will enable us to become focused on our future and what we can expect to both give to and receive from our chosen profession and how we can, and do, contribute to mental health care. The role of the mental health nurse is undergoing expansion and there are new hurdles to overcome along with the new benefits this brings. To support this, nationally adopted, formalised standards of practice and means by which to measure these, i.e., practice indicators formerly known as clinical indicators, are required. It is important to have national standards and practice indicators because of the variances in the provision of mental health across Australia – different legislation regarding mental health policies and processes, different nursing registration bodies and Nursing Councils, for example – which create additional barriers to cohesion and uniformity. Improvements in the practice of mental health nursing lead to benefits for consumer outcomes as well as the overall quality of mental health care available in Australia. The emphasis on rights-based care, particularly consumer and carer rights, demands evidence-based, up-to-date mental health care delivered by competent, capable professionals. Documented expectations for performance by nurses will provide all involved with yardsticks by which to evaluate outcomes. Flowing on from these benefits are advances in mental health care generally and enhancements to Australia’s reputation and position within the health care arena throughout the world. Currently, the ‘Standards for Practice’ published by the Australian New Zealand College of Mental Health Nurses (ANZCMHN) in 1995 and the practice indicators developed by Skews et al. (2000) provide a less formal guide for mental health nurses working in Australia. While these earlier standards and practice indicators have played some role in supporting mental health nurses they have not been nationally or enthusiastically adopted and there are a multitude of reasons for this. This report reviews the current literature available on practice indicators and standards for practice and describes an evidence-based rationale as to why a review and renewal of these is required and why it is important, not just for mental health nurses but to the field of mental health in general. The term ‘practice indicator’ is used, except where a quotation utilises ‘clinical indicator’, to more accurately reflect the broad spectrum of nursing roles, i.e. not all mental health nursing work involves a clinical role.

Perceptions of mental health service delivery among staff and Indigenous consumers: it's still about communication

Objective: A needs analysis was undertaken to determine the quality and effectiveness of mental health services to Indigenous consumers within a health district of Southern Queensland. The study focussed on identifying gaps in the service provision for Indigenous consumers. Tools and methodologies were developed to achieve this. Method: Data were collected through the distribution of questionnaires to the target populations: district health service staff and Indigenous consumers. Questionnaires were developed through consultation with the community and the Steering Committee in order to achieve culturally appropriate wording. Of prime importance was the adaptation of questionnaire language so it would be fully understood by Indigenous consumers. Both questionnaires were designed to provide a balanced perspective of current mental health service needs for Indigenous people within the mental health service. Results: Results suggest that existing mental health services do not adequately meet the needs of Indigenous people. Conclusions: Recommendations arising from this study indicate a need for better communication and genuine partnerships between the mental health service and Indigenous people that reflect respect of cultural heritage and recognises the importance of including Indigenous people in the design and management of mental health services. Attention to the recommendations from this study will help ensure a culturally appropriate and effective mental health service for Indigenous consumers.

Should the health community promote smokeless tobacco (snus) as a harm reduction measure?

Background to the debate: The tobacco control community is divided on whether or not to inform the public that using oral, smokeless tobacco (Swedish snus) is less hazardous to health than smoking tobacco. Proponents of 'harm reduction' point to the Swedish experience. Snus seems to be widely used as an alternative to cigarettes in Sweden, say these proponents, contributing to the low overall prevalence of smoking and smoking-related disease. Harm reduction proponents thus argue that the health community should actively inform inveterate cigarette smokers of the benefits of switching to snus. However, critics of harm reduction say that snus has its own risks, that no form of tobacco should ever be promoted, and that Sweden’s experience is likely to be specific to that culture and not transferable to other settings. Critics also remain deeply suspicious that the tobacco industry will use snus marketing as a 'gateway' to promote cigarettes. In the interests of promoting debate, the authors (who are collaborators on a research project on the future of tobacco control) have agreed to outline the strongest arguments for and against promoting Swedish snus as a form of harm reduction.