Development of a fuzzy qualitative risk assessment model applied to construction industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Policies, policy-makers and financial flows: An empirical examination

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Institutions and firm formation: An empirical analysis of Portuguese municipalities

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

TV advertisement and social networks: an empirical study with young adults

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Incidence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies in women with high-risk pregnancy and habitual abortions

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an obligate intracellular parasite. In pregnant women on the worldwide scale, there are seroprevalences from 7% to 51.3% and in women with abnormal pregnancies and abortions the seroprevalences vary from 17.5% to 52.3%. In Mexico, seropositivity has been found to vary from 18.2% to 44.8% in women with abnormal deliveries or abortions. This study's aim was to determine the incidence oflgG and IgM anti-Toxoplasma antibodies in women at the Gineco-Obstetrics Hospital of the Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute. Three hundred and fifty women with high-risk pregnancies were studied, and 122 (34.9%) were found to be IgG seropositive and 76 (20.7%) were IgM positive. In one group of women with habitual abortions there were 48 (44.9%) with the preseiwe of IgG antibodies and 33 (33-3%) were IgM seropositive. Seropositivity was analyzed according to age, occupation, socio-economic level, eating raw or poorly cooked meat, and living with cats.

Prospective study of strongyloidosis in patients with hematologic malignancies

Immunocompromised individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis may develop severe hyperinfection or disseminated disease with high mortality. Patients with hematological malignancies are at risk because of immunodepression produced either by the disease or its treatment. A prospective study was undertaken at the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, from July 1994 to July 1995. Seventy-two (HIV negative), had 3 stool samples collected at different days and had not received recent anti-helmintic therapy. Larvae, isolated in a modified Baermann method, were found in 6 patients, with a resultant prevalence of 8.3%. No complicated strongyloidosis was documented. The positive result for S. stercoralis larvae was significantly associated (p < 0.001) with eosinophilia. Knowledge of prevalence figures and incidence of severe disease is important to adequate guidelines for empirical treatment besides the rigorous search for strongyloidosis in patients with hematological malignancies.

Risk factors associated with taeniasis-cysticercosis in Lagamar, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

An epidemiological survey was carried out in 3,344 people of an urban town in Lagamar, Minas Gerais, Brazil - during 1992-1993, to evaluate the main risk factors related to taeniasis and cysticercosis. A total number of 875 (78.9%) houses were visited and 1080 (32.3%) subjects were clinically examined. Poor sanitary conditions were positively associated with former history of taeniasis or seizures in households (p < 0.05). It was remarkable the positive relationship between taeniasis and seizures when households were questioned and subjects were clinically evaluated (p < 0.05). The relative risk of seizures was 2.3 between households and 1.7 for individuals clinically examined respectively. The breeding of swine nearby and the chronic carriers of taeniasis are determinant factors in the maintenance of the epidemiological link between taeniasis and cysticercosis in endemic areas.

Bank capital and stock performance around the subprime lending risis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The building blocks of social entrepreneurship: empirical model and framework

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics