Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

Work plan for analytical support of an integrated ecosystem assessment of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem, FY11 ‐ FY13

NOAA/NCCOS is conducting the following work for the NOAA California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, in support of the NOAA/NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center.

Nocturnal fish movement and trophic flow across habitat boundaries in a coral reef ecosystem (SW Puerto Rico)

Few studies have quantified the extent of nocturnal cross-habitat movements for fish, or the influence of habitat adjacencies on nutrient flows and trophodynamics. To investigate the patterns of nocturnal cross-boundary movements of fish and quantify trophic connectivity, fish were sampled at night with gillnets set along the boundaries between dominant habitat types (coral reef/seagrass and mangrove/seagrass) in southwestern Puerto Rico. Fish movement across adjacent boundary patches were equivalent at both coral reefs and mangroves. Prey biomass transfer was greater from seagrass to coral reefs (0.016 kg/km) and from mangroves to seagrass (0.006 kg/km) but not statistically significant, indicating a balance of flow between adjacent habitats. Pelagic species (jacks, sharks, rays) accounted for 37% of prey biomass transport at coral reef/seagrass and 46% at mangrove/seagrass while grunts and snappers accounted for 7% and 15%, respectively. This study indicated that coral reefs and mangroves serve as a feeding area for a wide range of multi-habitat fish species. Crabs were the most frequent prey item in fish leaving coral reefs while molluscs were observed slightly more frequently than crabs in fish entering coral reefs. For most prey types, biomass exported from mangroves was greater than biomass imported. The information on direction of fish movement together with analysis of prey data provided strong evidence of ecological linkages between distinct adjacent habitat types and highlighted the need for greater inclusion of a mosaic of multiple habitats when attempting to understand ecosystem function including the spatial transfer of energy across the seascape.

1987 ecosystem view of management research in the Myakka River: review of Phase I and Phase II reports

This memorandum has four parts. The first is a review and partial synthesis of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Reports by Dr. Ernest Estevez of the Mote Marine Laboratory to the Board of County Commissioners of Sarasota County, Florida. The review and synthesis emphasizes identification of the most important aspects of the structure of the Myakka system in terms of forcing functions, biological components, and major energy flows. In this context, the dominant primary producers, dominant fish species and food habits, and major environmental variables were of articular interest. A major focus of the review and synthesis was on the river zonations provided in the report and based on salinity and various biological indicators. The second part of this memorandum is a review of a draft report by Mote Marine Laboratory on evaluation of potential water quality impacts on the Myakka River from proposed activities in the watershed. This Memorandum's third part is a review of resource-management related ecosystem models in the context of possible future models of the Myakka River Ecosystem. The final part of this memorandum is proposed future work as an extension of the initial reports.

Life history of South African snoek, Thyrsites atun (Pisces: Gempylidae): a pelagic predator of the Benguela ecosystem

Snoek (Thyrsites atun) is a valuable commercial species and an important predator of small pelagic fishes in the Benguela ecosystem. The South African population attains 50% sexual maturity at a fork length of ca.73.0 cm (3 years). Spawning occurs offshore during winter−spring, along the shelf break (150–400 m) of the western Agulhas Bank and the South African west coast. Prevailing currents transport eggs and larvae to a primary nursery ground north of Cape Columbine and to a secondary nursery area to the east of Danger Point; both shallower than 150 m. Juveniles remain on the nursery grounds until maturity, growing to between 33 and 44 cm in the first year (3.25 cm/month). Onshore– offshore distribution (between 5- and 150-m isobaths) of juveniles is deter-mined largely by prey availability and includes a seasonal inshore migration in autumn in response to clupeoid recruitment. Adults are found through-out the distribution range of the species, and although they move offshore to spawn—there is some southward dispersion as the spawning season progresses—longshore movement is apparently random and without a seasonal basis. Relative condition of both sexes declined dramatically with the onset of spawning. Mesenteric fat loss was, however, higher in females, despite a greater rate of prey consumption. Spatial differences in sex ratios and indices of prey consumption suggest that females on the west coast move inshore to feed between spawning events, but that those found farther south along the western Agulhas Bank remain on the spawning ground throughout the spawning season. This regional difference in female behavior is attributed to higher offshore abundance of clupeid prey on the western Agulhas Bank, as determined from both diet and rates of prey consumption.