The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer

Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome.

Proposal for a 10-high-power-fields scoring method for the assessment of tumor budding in colorectal cancer

Although tumor budding is linked to adverse prognosis in colorectal cancer, it remains largely unreported in daily diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. Our aim was to assess the inter-observer agreement of a novel 10-high-power-fields method for assessment of tumor budding at the invasive front and to confirm the prognostic value of tumor budding in our setting of colorectal cancers. Whole tissue sections of 215 colorectal cancers with full clinico-pathological and follow-up information were stained with cytokeratin AE1/AE3 antibody. Presence of buds was scored across 10-high-power fields at the invasive front by two pathologists and two additional observers were asked to score 50 cases of tumor budding randomly selected from the larger cohort. The measurements were correlated to the patient and tumor characteristics. Inter-observer agreement and correlation between observers' scores were excellent (P<0.0001; intraclass correlation coefficient=0.96). A test subgroup of 65 patients (30%) was used to define a valid cutoff score for high-grade tumor budding and the remaining 70% of the patients were entered into the analysis. High-grade budding was defined as an average of ≥10 buds across 10-high-power fields. High-grade budding was associated with a higher tumor grade (P<0.0001), higher TNM stage (P=0.0003), vascular invasion (P<0.0001), infiltrating tumor border configuration (P<0.0001) and reduced survival (P<0.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed its independent prognostic effect (P=0.007) when adjusting for TNM stage and adjuvant therapy. Using 10-high-power fields for evaluating tumor budding has independent prognostic value and shows excellent inter-observer agreement. Like the BRE and Gleason scores in breast and prostate cancers, respectively, tumor budding could be a basis for a prognostic score in colorectal cancer.