Learning through Computer Model Improvisations

It has been convincingly argued that computer simulation modeling differs from traditional science. If we understand simulation modeling as a new way of doing science, the manner in which scientists learn about the world through models must also be considered differently. This article examines how researchers learn about environmental processes through computer simulation modeling. Suggesting a conceptual framework anchored in a performative philosophical approach, we examine two modeling projects undertaken by research teams in England, both aiming to inform flood risk management. One of the modeling teams operated in the research wing of a consultancy firm, the other were university scientists taking part in an interdisciplinary project experimenting with public engagement. We found that in the first context the use of standardized software was critical to the process of improvisation, the obstacles emerging in the process concerned data and were resolved through exploiting affordances for generating, organizing, and combining scientific information in new ways. In the second context, an environmental competency group, obstacles were related to the computer program and affordances emerged in the combination of experience-based knowledge with the scientists' skill enabling a reconfiguration of the mathematical structure of the model, allowing the group to learn about local flooding.

Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.

The Impact of ICTs on Lecturer and Student Interaction in University Education Processes

Interaction is a basic element in any educational process, and it is something that needs to be reconsidered in the light of technology. In order to examine the methodological changes that ICTs bring to teaching from an interaction perspective, a study was carried out at the University of Lleida to observe interaction processes in various face-to-face, blended learning and e-learning subjects. The methodological design was based on three data collection techniques: documentary analysis of subject curricula, lecturer and student questionnaires, and lecturer interviews. The data showed that, as the online component of subjects increased, the lecturers and students used more technological tools to communicate (e-mail, forums, chats, social networks, etc.). Furthermore, we found that the lecturers and students basically communicated for academic purposes. While they hardly ever communicated for personal reasons (guidance, support, etc.), they claimed that closer contact with a non-academic focus would be preferable. We also observed that the students’ work was more individual in e-learning subjects. Although there is still a considerable way to go in ICT-mediated lecturer-student interaction, both the lecturers and students recognise the potential of such technologies, even though they still do not use them as they feel they should.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

DATA WAREHOUSING IN A GLOBAL METAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY

Työn tavoittena oli selvittää, miten tietovarastointi voi tukea yrityksessä tapahtuvaa päätöksentekoa. Tietovarastokomponenttien ja –prosessien kuvauksen jälkeen on käsitelty tietovarastoprojektin eri vaiheita. Esitettyä teoriaa sovellettiin käytäntöön globaalissa metalliteollisuusyrityksessä, jossa tietovarastointikonseptia testattiin. Testauksen perusteella arvioitiin olemassa olevan tiedon tilaa sekä kahden käytetyn ohjelmiston toimivuutta tietovarastoinnissa. Yrityksen operatiivisten järjestelmien tiedon laadun todettiin olevan tutkituilta osin epäyhtenäistä ja puutteellista. Siksi tiedon suora yrityslaajuinen hyödyntäminen luotettavien ja hyvälaatuisten raporttien luonnissa on vaikeaa. Lisäksi eri yksiköiden välillä havaittiin epäyhtenäisyyttä käytettyjen liiketoiminnan käsitteiden sekä järjestelmien käyttötapojen suhteen. Testauksessa käytetyt ohjelmistot suoriutuivat perustietovarastoinnista hyvin, vaikkakin joitain rajoituksia ja erikoisuuksia ilmenikin. Työtä voidaan pitää ennen varsinaista tietovarastoprojektia tehtävänä esitutkimuksena. Jatkotoimenpiteinä ehdotetaan testauksen jatkamista nykyisillä työkaluilla kohdistaen tavoitteet konkreettisiin tuloksiin. Tiedon laadun tärkeyttä tulee korostaa koko organisaatiossa ja olemassa olevan tiedon laatua pitää parantaa tulevaisuudessa.

Elevated hypertension risk for African-origin populations in biracial societies : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study.

OBJECTIVES: Blood pressures in persons of African descent exceed those of other racial/ethnic groups in the United States. Whether this trait is attributable to the genetic factors in African-origin populations, or a result of inadequately measured environmental exposures, such as racial discrimination, is not known. To study this question, we conducted a multisite comparative study of communities in the African diaspora, drawn from metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. METHODS: At each site, 500 participants between the age of 25 and 49 years, with approximately equal sex balance, were enrolled for a longitudinal study of energy expenditure and weight gain. In this study, we describe the patterns of blood pressure and hypertension observed at baseline among the sites. RESULTS: Mean SBP and DBP were very similar in the United States and South Africa in both men and women, although among women, the prevalence of hypertension was higher in the United States (24 vs. 17%, respectively). After adjustment for multiple covariates, relative to participants in the United States, SBP was significantly higher among the South Africans by 9.7 mmHg (P < 0.05) and significantly lower for each of the other sites: for example, Jamaica: -7.9 mmHg (P = 0.06), Ghana: -12.8 mmHg (P < 0.01) and Seychelles: -11.1 mmHg (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: These data are consistent with prior findings of a blood pressure gradient in societies of the African diaspora and confirm that African-origin populations with lower social status in multiracial societies, such as the United States and South Africa, experience more hypertension than anticipated based on anthropometric and measurable socioeconomic risk factors.

The effects of unemployment benefits on migration in lagging regions

[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.

The effects of unemployment benefits on migration in lagging regions

[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.

Falsification and corroboration of conceptual hydrological models using geophysical data

Geophysical data may provide crucial information about hydrological properties, states, and processes that are difficult to obtain by other means. Large data sets can be acquired over widely different scales in a minimally invasive manner and at comparatively low costs, but their effective use in hydrology makes it necessary to understand the fidelity of geophysical models, the assumptions made in their construction, and the links between geophysical and hydrological properties. Geophysics has been applied for groundwater prospecting for almost a century, but it is only in the last 20 years that it is regularly used together with classical hydrological data to build predictive hydrological models. A largely unexplored venue for future work is to use geophysical data to falsify or rank competing conceptual hydrological models. A promising cornerstone for such a model selection strategy is the Bayes factor, but it can only be calculated reliably when considering the main sources of uncertainty throughout the hydrogeophysical parameter estimation process. Most classical geophysical imaging tools tend to favor models with smoothly varying property fields that are at odds with most conceptual hydrological models of interest. It is thus necessary to account for this bias or use alternative approaches in which proposed conceptual models are honored at all steps in the model building process.

Computational modeling of resting-state activity demonstrates markers of normalcy in children with prenatal or perinatal stroke.

Children who sustain a prenatal or perinatal brain injury in the form of a stroke develop remarkably normal cognitive functions in certain areas, with a particular strength in language skills. A dominant explanation for this is that brain regions from the contralesional hemisphere "take over" their functions, whereas the damaged areas and other ipsilesional regions play much less of a role. However, it is difficult to tease apart whether changes in neural activity after early brain injury are due to damage caused by the lesion or by processes related to postinjury reorganization. We sought to differentiate between these two causes by investigating the functional connectivity (FC) of brain areas during the resting state in human children with early brain injury using a computational model. We simulated a large-scale network consisting of realistic models of local brain areas coupled through anatomical connectivity information of healthy and injured participants. We then compared the resulting simulated FC values of healthy and injured participants with the empirical ones. We found that the empirical connectivity values, especially of the damaged areas, correlated better with simulated values of a healthy brain than those of an injured brain. This result indicates that the structural damage caused by an early brain injury is unlikely to have an adverse and sustained impact on the functional connections, albeit during the resting state, of damaged areas. Therefore, these areas could continue to play a role in the development of near-normal function in certain domains such as language in these children.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

The role of ubiquitin specific peptidase 15 (USP 15) in human glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and most aggressive malignant primary brain tumour. Despite the aggressiveness of the applied therapy, the prognosis remains poor with a median survival to of about 15 months. It is important to identify new candidate genes that could have clinical application in this disease. Previous gene expression studies from human GBM samples in our laboratory, revealed Ubiquitin Specific Peptidase 15 (USP15) as a gene with low expression, significantly associated with genomic deletions of the chromosomal region encompassing the USP15 locus. USP15 belongs to the ubiquitin-specific protease (USPs) family of which the main role is the reversion of ubiquitination and thereby stabilization of substrates. Previously, USP15 has been suggested to have a tumour suppressor function via its substrates APC and Caspase 3. We established GBM cell lines that stably express USP15 wt or its catalytic mutant. USP15 expression impairs cell growth by inhibiting cell cycle progression. On the other hand USP15 depletion in GBM cell lines induces cell cycle progression and proliferation. In order to identify the molecular pathways in which USP15 is implicated we aimed to identify protein-binding partners in the GBM cell line LN-229 by Mass spectrometry. As a result we identified eight new proteins that interact with USP15. These proteins are involved in important cellular processes like cytokinesis, cell cycle, cellular migration, and apoptosis. Three of these protein interactions were confirmed by co-immunoprecipitation in four GBM cell lines LN-229, LN428, LN18, LN-Z308. One of the binding proteins is HECTD1 E3 ligase of which the murine homologue promotes the APC-Axin interaction to negatively regulate the Wnt pathway. USP15 can de-ubiquitinate HECTD1 in the LN229 cell line while its depletion led to decrease of HECTD1 in GBM cell lines suggesting stabilizing role for USP15. Moreover, HECTD1 stable expression in LN229 inhibits cell cycle, while its depletion induces cell cycle progression. These results suggest that the USP15-HECTD1 interaction might enhance the antiproliferative effect of HECTD1 in GBM cell lines. Using the TOPflash/FOPflash luciferase system we showed that HECTD1 and USP15 overexpression can attenuate WNT pathway activity, and decrease the Axin2 expression. These data indicate that this new protein interaction of USP15 with HECTD1 results in negative regulation of the WNT pathway in GBM cell lines. Further investigation of the regulation of this interaction or of the protein binding network of HECTD1 in GBM may allow the discovery of new therapeutic targets. Finally PTPIP51 and KIF15 are the other two identified protein partners of USP15. These two proteins are involved in cell proliferation and their depletion in LN-229 cell line led to induction of cell cycle progression. USP15 displays a stabilizing role for them. Hence, these results show that the tumour suppressive role of USP15 in GBM cell line via different molecular mechanisms indicating the multidimensional function of USP15. Résumé Le glioblastome (GBM) est la tumeur primaire la plus fréquente et la plus agressive du cervau caractérisée par une survie médiane d'environ à 15 mois. De précédant travaux effectués au sein de notre laboratoire portant sur l'étude de l'expression de gènes pour des échantillons humains de GBM ont montré que le gène Ubiquitin Specific Peptidase 15 (USP1S) était significativement associée à une délétion locales à 25% des cas. Initialement, les substrats protéiques APC et CaspaseS de USP15 ont conduit à considérer cette protéine comme un suppresseur de tumeur. USP15 appartient à la famille protèsse spécifique de l'ubiquitine (USPs) dont le rôle principal est la réversion de l'ubiquitination et la stabilisation de substrats. Par conséquent, nous avons établi des lignées de cellules de glioblastome qui expriment de manière stable USP15 ou bien son mutant catalytique. Ainsi, nous avons ainsi démontré que l'expression de l'USP15 empêche la croissance cellulaire en inhibant la progression du cycle cellulaire. Inversement, la suppression de l'expression du gène USP15 dans les lignées cellulaires de glioblastome induit la progression du cycle cellulaire et la prolifération. Afin d'identifier les voies moléculaires dans lesquelles sont impliquées USP15, nous avons cherché à identifier les partenaires de liaisons protéiques par spectrométrie de masse dans la lignée cellulaire LN-229. Ainsi, huit nouvelles protéines interagissant avec USP15 ont été identifiées dont la ligase E3 HECTD1. L'homologue murin de Hectdl favorise l'interaction APC-Axin en régulant négativement la voie de signalisation de Wnt. USP15 interagit en désubiquitinant HECTD1 dans la lignée cellulaire LN-229 et provoque ainsi l'atténuation de l'activité de cette voie de signalisation. En conclusion, HECTD1, en interagissant avec USP15, joue un rôle de suppresseur de tumeur dans les lignées cellulaire de GBM.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Fluid flow processes at basin scale

S u b s u r face fluid flow plays a significant role in many geologic processes and is increasingly being studied in the scale of sedimentary basins and geologic time perspective. Many economic resources such as petroleum and mineral deposits are products of basin scale fluid flow operating over large periods of time. Such ancient flow systems can be studied through analysis of diagenetic alterations and fluid inclusions to constrain physical and chemical conditions of fluids and rocks during their paleohy d r og e o l ogic evolution. Basin simulation models are useful to complement the paleohy d r og e o l ogic record preserved in the rocks and to derive conceptual models on hydraulic basin evolution and generation of economic resources. Different types of fluid flow regimes may evo l ve during basin evolution. The most important with respect to flow rates and capacity for transport of solutes and thermal energy is gr avitational fluid flow driven by the topographic configuration of a basin. Such flow systems require the basin to be elevated above sea level. Consolidational fluid flow is the principal fluid migration process in basins below sea level, caused by loading of compressible rocks. Flow rates of such systems are several orders of magnitude below topogr a p hy driven flow. Howeve r, consolidation may create significant fluid ove rpressure. Episodic dewatering of ove rpressured compart m e n t s m ay cause sudden fluid release with elevated flow velocities and may cause a transient local thermal and chemical disequilibrium betwe e n fluid and rock. This paper gives an ove rv i ew on subsurface fluid flow processes at basin scale and presents examples related to the Pe n e d è s basin in the central Catalan continental margin including the offshore Barcelona half-graben and the compressive South-Pyrenean basin.