Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

Geochronology of the Pengjiakuang and Rushan gold deposits, Eastern Jiaodong Gold Province, Northeastern China: Implications for regional mineralization and geodynamic setting

The Jiaodong gold province, the largest gold-producing district in China, is located in the jiaodong peninsula at the eastern margin of the North China craton and bounded by the continental scale Tan-Lu fault, 40 kin to the west. Previous geochronological studies suggest that pervasive gold deposition took place in the western part of the province between 122 and 119 Ma. Here we report high-quality Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of the Pengjiakuang and Rushan deposits from the eastern part of the jiaodong gold province, placing additional chronological constraints on the timing of regional mineralization. Seven sericite grains extracted from auriferous alteration assemblages at the Pengiiakuang deposit yielded well-defined plateau ages between 120.9 +/- 0.4 and 119.1 +/- 0.2 Ma (2 sigma). Three separates of igneous biotite from a sample of the Queshan gneissic granite, adjacent to the Pengjiakuang deposit, gave reproducible plateau ages of 124.6 +/- 0.6 to 123.9 +/- 0.4 Ma (2 sigma). Six sericite separates front two samples in the Rushan deposit yielded Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau ages at 109.3 +/- 0.3 to 107.7 +/- 0.5 Ma (2 sigma), whereas biotite from the Kunyushan monzogranite that hosts the Rushan deposit had plateau ages ranging from 129.0 +/- 0.6 to 126.9 +/- 0.6 Ma (3 separates front one sample). The apparent age gap between hydrothermal sericite and magmtic biotite from both deposits, together with the similar argon closure temperatures for these mica minerals, suggest that gold mineralization had no direct relationship to the granitoid magmatism. Instead, gold deposition coincided with the emplacement of mafic to intermediate dikes widespread in the jiaodong gold province, which have been dated at ca. 122 to 119 Ma and, less commonly, at 110 to 102 Ma. The new Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from the eastern jiaodong peninsula, when combined with published data from the western part suggest that gold mineralization was broadly contemporaneous throughout the district. The Early Cretaceous gold mineralization also is widely developed in four other major gold districts along the Tan-Lu fault. The temporal and spatial correlation of these gold deposits with mafic to intermediate dikes commonly found in most mineralized areas, the presence of well-documented metamorphic core complexes and half-graben basins along the Tan-Lu fault, and voluminous basalts therein, suggest that the Early Cretaceous was an important period of lithospheric extension, possibly caused by the late Mesozoic lithospheric thinning beneath the eastern block of the North China craton. Lithospheric thinning and extension could have resulted in abnormally high heat and fluid fluxes necessary for large-scaled gold mineralization.

Comparison of cognitive screening tasks in an elderly veteran population

Screening measures of cognitive status are traditionally administered face to face. In survey research such screening mcasurcs, while desirable, must he administered by other means. As part of pilot survey research on a New Zealand war veteran population with some degree of hearing impairment, a face-to-face administration of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; Folstein, Folstein and McHugh, 1975) and a telephoneadministration of the Telephonc Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS; Brandt, Spencer and Folstein. 1988) were compared. Brandt ('/ u/. (1988) reported a very strong linear relationship between scores on the MMSE and the TICS (r=0.94, p < .0001) in an Alzheimer patient population with a mcan MMSE score of 12.06 (6.78). For a sample of 44 mildly to moderately hearing impaired veterans, with a mean MMSE score of 25.52 (2.16) and a mean TICS score of 32.52(5.43), the correlation between the instruments was .39. When veterans who wore hearing aids during the telephone interview ( N = 2 2 ) wcrc separated out from those who did not, the correlation rose to .54. Age was ncgatively correlated with the MMSE ( r = -0.41, / I < .01) and not significantly correlated with the TICS. Education level was unrelated to either measure. The data suggest that the wearing or non-wearing of hearing aids may contribute significantly to the reliability of the TICS. Furthermore, on non-demented populations with a less restricted range of scores. the correlation of the MMSE and TICS may he lower than previously reported.

Measuring accounting disclosure in a period of complex changes : the case of Egypt

Significant changes in accounting disclosure are observed in periods of economic change such as those relating to emerging capital markets and programs of privatization. Measurement of the level of accounting disclosure should ideally be designed to capture the complexity of change in order to give insight and explanation to match the causes and consequences of change. This paper shows the added interpretive value in subdividing the disclosure checklist to reflect the requirements of national accounting regulations, the location of disclosure items in the annual report, and limitations on the availability of regulations in official translation to the local language. Defining targeted disclosure categories leads to significance testing of specific aspects of changes in accounting disclosure in the Egyptian capital market in the 1990s. Strong correlation of disclosure with the presence of majority government ownership of the company and the relative activity of share trading supports the applicability of political costs and capital need theories, respectively. The relation between International Accounting Standards (IASs) disclosure and the type of audit firm points to additional theoretical explanations, including relative familiarity with the legislation and compliance features identifiable with the emerging capital market. The approach described in this paper has the potential for enhancing understanding of the complexity of accounting change in other emerging capital markets and developing economies.

Does the neuropathology of human patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease reflect haematogenous spread of the disease?

To test the hypothesis that the distribution of the pathology in variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) represents haematogenous spread of the disease, we studied the spatial correlation between the vacuolation, prion protein (PrP) deposits, and the blood vessel profiles in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, dentate gyrus, and cerebellum of 11 cases of the disease. In the majority of areas, there were no significant spatial correlations between either the vacuolation or the diffuse type of PrP deposit and the blood vessels. By contrast, a consistent pattern of spatial correlation was observed between the florid PrP deposits and blood vessels mainly in the cerebral cortex. The frequency of positive spatial correlations was similar in different anatomical areas of the cerebral cortex and in the upper compared with the lower laminae. Hence, with the exception of the florid deposits, the data do not demonstrate a spatial relationship between the pathological features of vCJD and blood vessels. The spatial correlation of the florid deposits and blood vessels may be attributable to factors associated with the blood vessels that promote the aggregation of PrP to form a condensed core rather than reflecting the haematogenous spread of the disease. © 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

Studies of the drying of particulate slurries

The literature relating to the drying characteristics of pure liquid drops and particulate slurry drops has been reviewed. The experimental investigation was, therefore, divided into three parts: Pure water drops, Aqueous sodium sulphate decahydrate drops, and, Slurry drops from nine detergent formulations. The value of the constant,'Ψ, reported by Ranz and Marshall, was found to be temperature dependent. In the temperature range o 26.5≤T≤118.5°C,Ψ , for pure water drops, varied between 0.38 and 0.47. A revised correlation of the mass transfer coefficients is therefore proposed.  A mathematical model for estimating the variation of crust thickness, for aqueous sodium sulphate drops, with time is proposed: β = R _ {R3 - ( 1.5G/πCo ) ( ΔHD - ΔHU) Δ} 1/3 Experimental crust thickness evaluated from stereoscan micrographs showed good agreement with theoretical prediction. It has been shown that drying characteristics of detergent drops can be evaluated from the porosity:thickness ratio, {ε/\β}. Formulations having large {ε/β I-ratios dry better than those with smaller values. The agreement between the experimental and theoretical mass transfer coefficients shows, in addition to the above correlation, that the overall mass transfer coefficient can be predicted from the expression1/K = 1/K + β/DMε 1.5 The crust is the controlling resistance to transfer in particulate slurry drops. For aqueous sodium sulphate drops, the crust provides 64.2% of the total resistance while for detergents with thicker, but less porous crusts, the value is 97.5%.

Perceptions of technological change : the attitude of managers towards group technology in the United States food equipment industry

In the center of today's continued and rapid technological change and ever competitive environment of the next millennium, manufacturers must realize that unless they are ready to consider and evaluate new technologies brought onto them, they may fail to adequately respond to the challenges that lie ahead of them. This research was designed to determine the consistency of the perceptions of technical and non-technical administrators, in manufacturing environment, towards technological change and group technology as an advanced manufacturing system. This research has included a review of literature with references to technological change, justification and implementation processes, and various manufacturing systems including group technology and its benefits. This research has used the research method of empirical analysis (quantitative) and case studies (qualitative) to research perceptions of technical and non-technical administrators towards technological change and group technology. Sixty-four (64) technical and fifty-one (51) nontechnical administrators from fifty (50) manufacturing organizations in the United States of America responded to the mail survey questionnaire used in this research. Responses were analyzed using the Repeated Measures ANOVA procedure to compare mean responses of each group. Two correlation analyses, Cronback Coefficient Alpha and Pearson Correlation Coefficient, were also performed to determine the reliability of the questionnaire as well as the degree of correlation of perceptions between these two groups. This research, through the empirical analysis, has found that perceptions of the technical and non-technical administrators towards group technology were not consistent. In other words, they did not perceive the benefits of group technology in the same manner to the overall organizational performance. This finding was significant since it provided the first clear and comprehensive view of the technical and non-technical administrators' perception towards group technology and technological change, in Food Equipment Manufacturer Industry, in United States of America. In addition, a number of cases were analyzed and the results have supported those of the quantitative analysis. Therefore, this research not only has provided basic data, which was unavailable prior to this investigation, but it also provided a basis for future studies.

A study of load support and other criteria appropriate to the selection of industrial conveyor belts

A study of conveying practice demonstrates that belt conveyors provide a versatile and. much-used method of transporting bulk materials, but a review of belting manufacturers' design procedures shows that belt design and selection rules are often based on experience with all-cotton belts no longer in common use, and are net completely relevant to modern synthetic constructions. In particular, provision of the property "load support", which was not critical with cotton belts, is shown to determine the outcome of most belt selection exercises and lead to gross over specification of other design properties in many cases. The results of an original experimental investigation into this property, carried out to determine the belt and conveyor parameters that affect it, how the major role that belt stiffness plays in its provision; the basis for a belt stiffness test relevant to service conditions is given. A proposal for a more rational method of specifying load support data results from the work, but correlation of the test results with service performance is necessary before the absolute toad support capability required from a belt for given working conditions can be quantified. A study to attain this correlation is the major proposal for future work resulting from the present investigation, but a full review of the literature on conveyor design and a study of present practice within the belting industry demonstrate other, less critical, factors that could profitably be investigated. It is suggested that the most suitable method of studying these would be a rational data collection system to provide information on various facets of belt service behaviour; a basis for such a system is proposed. In addition to the work above, proposals for simplifying the present belt selection methods are made and a strain transducer suitable for use in future experimental investigations is developed.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

The cutting performance of sialon ceramic tools

The thesis deals with a research programme in which the cutting performance of a new generation of ceramic cutting tool material is evaluated using the turning process. In part one, the performance of commercial Kyon 2000 sialon ceramic inserts is studied when machining a hardened alloy steel under a wide range of cutting conditions. The aim is to formulate a pattern of machining behaviour in which tool wear is related to a theoretical interpretation of the temperatures and stresses generated by the chip-tool interaction. The work involves a correlation of wear measurement and metallographic examination of the wear area with the measurable cutting data. Four main tool failure modes are recognised: (a) flank and crater wear (b) grooving wear (c) deformation wear and (d) brittle failure Results indicate catastrophic edge breakdown under certain conditions. Accordingly in part two, the edge geometry is modified to give a double rake tool; a negative/positive combination. The results are reported for a range of workpiece materials under orthogonal cutting conditions. Significant improvements in the cutting performance are achieved. The improvements are explained by a study of process parameters; cutting forces, chip thickness ratio, chip contact length, temperature distribution, stress distribution and chip formation. In part three, improvements in tool performance are shown to arise when the edge chamfer on a single rake tool is modified. Under optimum edge chamfer conditions a substantial increase in tool life is obtained compared with the commercial cutting geometry.

Autonomic, biometric and oculomotor correlates of myopia in young adults

The principal work reported in this thesis is the examination of autonomic profile of ciliary muscle innervation as a risk factor in myopia development. Deficiency in sympathetic inhibitory control of accommodation has been proposed as a contributory factor in the development of late onset myopia (LOM). Complementary measurements of ocular biometry, oculomotor function and dynamic accommodation response were carried out on the same subject cohort, thus allowing cross-correlation of these factors with. autonomic profile. Subjects were undergraduate and postgraduate students of Aston University. A 2.5 year longitudinal study of refractive error progression in 40 subjects revealed the onset of LOM in 10, initially emmetropic, young adult subjects (age range 18-24 years) undertaking substantial amounts of near work. A controlled, double blind experimental protocol was conducted concurrently to measure post-task open-loop accommodative regression following distance (0 D) or near (3 D above baseline tonic accommodation) closed-loop tasks of short (10 second) or long (3 minute) duration. Closed-loop tasks consisted of observation of a high contrast Maltese cross target; open-loop conditions were imposed by observation of a 0.2 c/deg Difference of Gaussian target. Accommodation responses were recorded continuously at 42 Hz using a modified Shin-Nippon SRW-5000 open-view infra-red optometer. Blockade of the sympathetic branch of accommodative control was achieved by topical instillation of the non-selective b-adrenoceptor antagonist timolol maleate. Betaxolol hydrochloride (non-selective b1-adrenoceptor antagonist) and normal saline were employed as control agents. Retarded open-loop accommodative regression under b2 blockade following the 3 minute near task indicated the presence of sympathetic facility. Sympathetic inhibitory facility in accommodation control was found in similar proportions between LOM and stable emmetropic subjects. A cross-sectional study (N=60) of autonomic profile showed that sympathetic innervation of ciliary muscle is present in similar proportions between emmetropes, early-, and late-onset myopes. Sympathetic facility was identified in 27% of emmetropes, 21% of EOMs and 29% of LOMs.

An inter-laboratory validation of methods of lipid peroxidation measurement in UVA-treated human plasma samples

Lipid peroxidation products like malondialdehyde, 4-hydroxynonenal and F(2)-isoprostanes are widely used as markers of oxidative stress in vitro and in vivo. This study reports the results of a multi-laboratory validation study by COST Action B35 to assess inter-laboratory and intra-laboratory variation in the measurement of lipid peroxidation. Human plasma samples were exposed to UVA irradiation at different doses (0, 15 J, 20 J), encoded and shipped to 15 laboratories, where analyses of malondialdehyde, 4-hydroxynonenal and isoprostanes were conducted. The results demonstrate a low within-day-variation and a good correlation of results observed on two different days. However, high coefficients of variation were observed between the laboratories. Malondialdehyde determined by HPLC was found to be the most sensitive and reproducible lipid peroxidation product in plasma upon UVA treatment. It is concluded that measurement of malondialdehyde by HPLC has good analytical validity for inter-laboratory studies on lipid peroxidation in human EDTA-plasma samples, although it is acknowledged that this may not translate to biological validity.

Visual field and structural correlates of progression in age-related macular degeneration

Presentation Purpose:To examine the correlation of central visual field loss and progression of structural changes in the macular area in age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods:Central 10° standard and short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP) visual fields were acquired in 39 eyes of 24 patients with AMD using a Humphrey Field Analyzer. Stereoscopic fundus photographs were graded1 by two independent observers and the stage of disease determined2. Custom software mapped perimetric data onto fundus images in order to relate structural changes to functional loss. Results:Mean deviation (MD) in standard perimetry changed from 0.04 dB at stage 1 to -12.39 dB at stage 4 (r2=0.48, p<0.001). The group mean SWAP MD was -5.26 dB at stage 1 and increased to -17.08 dB at stage 4 (r2=0.53, p<0.001). Pattern standard deviation (PSD) also increased with advancing stage in standard perimetry; 1.32 dB to 8.67 dB at stage 1 and 4, respectively (r2=0.54, p<0.001). In SWAP, PSD increased from 2.86 dB to 5.63 dB at stage 1 and stage 4 (r2=0.43, p<0.001). Defect frequency was greater in SWAP than standard perimetry. Early stage defects occurred with the greatest frequency at eccentricities of 3.2° and 5.1° in standard perimetry and at 4.2° in SWAP. Late stage defects were most frequent at 1° eccentricity in standard perimetry and at 1° and 9° in SWAP. MD declined with increasing affected retinal area over the central 3000µm; by 0.20 dB (r2=0.67, p<0.001) and 0.18 dB (r2=0.49, p<0.001) per % increase in defect area for standard perimetry and SWAP respectively. 41% of defects were associated with structural changes on the retina in standard perimetry and 43% in SWAP. Conclusions:Sensitivity decreased with advancing stage of AMD, with a greater effect demonstrated in SWAP compared to standard perimetry. The central field became less uniform as stage increased. SWAP defects occurred at similar locations but were deeper and wider than corresponding defects in standard perimetry. Central loss in SWAP is a sensitive marker of functional progression in AMD.1. Bird et al. (1995) Surv Ophthalmol 39:367-3742. van Leeuwen et al. (2003) Arch Ophthalmol 121:519-526

Semantic sentiment analysis of Twitter

Sentiment analysis over Twitter offer organisations a fast and effective way to monitor the publics' feelings towards their brand, business, directors, etc. A wide range of features and methods for training sentiment classifiers for Twitter datasets have been researched in recent years with varying results. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach of adding semantics as additional features into the training set for sentiment analysis. For each extracted entity (e.g. iPhone) from tweets, we add its semantic concept (e.g. Apple product) as an additional feature, and measure the correlation of the representative concept with negative/positive sentiment. We apply this approach to predict sentiment for three different Twitter datasets. Our results show an average increase of F harmonic accuracy score for identifying both negative and positive sentiment of around 6.5% and 4.8% over the baselines of unigrams and part-of-speech features respectively. We also compare against an approach based on sentiment-bearing topic analysis, and find that semantic features produce better Recall and F score when classifying negative sentiment, and better Precision with lower Recall and F score in positive sentiment classification.