Malthus to Solow

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modem industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. This transition is inevitable given positive rates oftotal factor productivity growth. We use a standard growth mode1 with one good and two available techno10gies. The first, denoted the "Malthus" technology, requires 1and, labor and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the "Solow" technology, does not require land. We show that in the earIy stages of development, only the Malthus technology is used and, due to population growth, living standards are stagnant despite technological progresso Eventually, technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed. At this point, living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth. In the limit, the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model.

Uma análise de incentivos contratuais em arranjos de parceria de atendimento ao cidadão

Com base em proposições depreendidas da teoria da economia dos custos de transação, da teoria dos incentivos e dos contratos incompletos, esta pesquisa realiza um estudo de casos múltiplos buscando encontrar correspondentes empíricos para tais formulações. O foco dessa dissertação está em uma oportunidade incomum: a ocorrência simultânea de dois diferentes modelos de parceria com sistemas de incentivos distintos aplicados ao mesmo serviço. O Poupatempo e a Unidade de Atendimento Integrado - UAI, dois importantes programas regionais brasileiros de atendimento presencial ao cidadão, que possuem objetivos semelhantes e que empregaram recentemente diferentes modelos de parceria. Enquanto São Paulo utilizou da terceirização para expandir o Poupatempo desde 2007, Minas Gerais desenvolveu o UAI desde 2011 com uma parceria público-privada. Este estudo de casos múltiplos desenvolve-se com base em uma análise contratual que identifica os incentivos formais das parcerias aliada a avaliação dos resultados dos agentes privados com base nos relatórios de desempenho. Para além da análise destes documentos, entrevistas semiestruturadas nos permitem analisar as variáveis não-contratuais. Assim, os elementos extraídos dos dois casos nos permitem observar os pressupostos depreendidos das três teorias.

Método Fuzzy para auxílio ao diagnóstico de câncer de mama em ambiente inteligente de telediagnóstico colaborativo para apoio à tomada de decisão

Breast cancer, despite being one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide is a disease that can be cured if diagnosed early. One of the main techniques used in the detection of breast cancer is the Fine Needle Aspirate FNA (aspiration puncture by thin needle) which, depending on the clinical case, requires the analysis of several medical specialists for the diagnosis development. However, such diagnosis and second opinions have been hampered by geographical dispersion of physicians and/or the difficulty in reconciling time to undertake work together. Within this reality, this PhD thesis uses computational intelligence in medical decision-making support for remote diagnosis. For that purpose, it presents a fuzzy method to assist the diagnosis of breast cancer, able to process and sort data extracted from breast tissue obtained by FNA. This method is integrated into a virtual environment for collaborative remote diagnosis, whose model was developed providing for the incorporation of prerequisite Modules for Pre Diagnosis to support medical decision. On the fuzzy Method Development, the process of knowledge acquisition was carried out by extraction and analysis of numerical data in gold standard data base and by interviews and discussions with medical experts. The method has been tested and validated with real cases and, according to the sensitivity and specificity achieved (correct diagnosis of tumors, malignant and benign respectively), the results obtained were satisfactory, considering the opinions of doctors and the quality standards for diagnosis of breast cancer and comparing them with other studies involving breast cancer diagnosis by FNA.

Fission track and U-Pb in situ dating applied to detrital zircon from the Vale do Rio do Peixe Formation, Bauru Group, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Formação estelar desencadeada pela colisão entre nuvens moleculares magnetizadas

We use a finite diference eulerian numerical code, called ZEUS 3D, to do simulations involving the collision between two magnetized molecular clouds, aiming to evaluate the rate of star formation triggered by the collision and to analyse how that rate varies depending on the relative orientations between the cloud magnetic fields before the shock. The ZEUS 3D code is not an easy code to handle. We had to create two subroutines, one to study the cloud-cloud collision and the other for the data output. ZEUS is a modular code. Its hierarchical way of working is explained as well as the way our subroutines work. We adopt two sets of different initial values for density, temperature and magnetic field of the clouds and of the external medium in order to study the collision between two molecular clouds. For each set, we analyse in detail six cases with different directions and orientations of the cloud magnetic field relative to direction of motion of the clouds. The analysis of these twelve cases allowed us to conform analytical-theoretical proposals found in the literature, and to obtain several original results. Previous works indicate that, if the cloud magnetic fields before the collision are orthogonal to the direction of motion, then a strong inhibition of star formation will occur during a cloud-cloud shock, whereas if those magnetic fields are parallel to the direction of motion, star formation will be stimulated. Our treatment of the problem confirmed numerically those results, and further allowed us to quantify the relative star forming efficiencies in each case. Moreover, we propose and analyse an intermediate case where the field of one of the clouds is orthogonal to the motion and the field of the other one is parallel to the motion. We conclude that, in this case, the rate at which the star formation occurs has a value also intermediate between the two extreme cases we mentioned above. Besides that we study the case in which the fields are orthogonal to the direction of the motion but, instead of being parallel to each other, they are anti-parallel, and we obtained for this case the corresponding variation of the star formation rate due to this alteration of the field configuration. This last case has not been studied in the literature before. Our study allows us to obtain, from the simulations, the rate of star formation in each case, as well as the temporal dependence of that rate as each collision evolves, what we do in detail for one of the cases in particular. The values we obtain for the rate of star formation are in accordance with those expected from the presently existing observational data

Doenças respiratórias associadas à atividade de mineração no município de Parelhas, região do seridó norte-riograndense

This work aims to characterize the workers in mineral activities exposed to lung injuries in Parelhas Municipality, Rio Grande do Norte State, seeking to relate respiratory diseases to the mining activity. The studied area (Parelhas City), with about 19,700 inhabitants, is located in the Serido region, approximately 232 km far from Natal City. The number of people involved in informal mining activity (garimpo) in the Seridó region reaches about 5,000. These workers generally do not use any kind of individual protection equipments and develop, at early ages of greater productivity, severe forms of diseases, which end up disabling them to professional activities, family and social life. Deceases by respiratory problems (e.g. silicosis) have been reported in very young adults. A descriptive observational study was conducted based on information from the records found in Dr. José Augusto Dantas Hospital, between the years 1996- 2006. The occupational and socio-economic features of the population, which was selected by using the hospital records, were achieved through individually answered forms. The purpose was to link the occupational activities with the respiratory diseases. The next stage of the research was an observational case-control study, in the 1:1 proportion. The achieved data allowed confirming the central hypothesis of the research, which states that the pneumoconiosis cases are due to the mineral-based activities in the studied area. The final step of the investigation tried to assess the knowledge of relatives of students in public and private elementary and high schools from Parelhas City, regarding silicosis. About 15.4% of urban schools were analyzed through application of a structured questionnaire. The results show distinct socio-economic levels and a difference in the perception of the relatives of students in public and private schools, concerning silicosis. It was possible to identify the characteristics of the population economically involved with mineral-based activities and to define the group that deserves preferential attention in preventive actions. The work indicates some environmental problems caused by inadequate mining operations in the region

Rabies transmitted by vampire bats to humans: An emerging zoonotic disease in Latin America?

Human rabies transmitted by vampire bats reached new heights in Latin America in 2005. A total of 55 human cases were reported in several outbreaks, 41 of them in the Amazon region of Brazil. Peru and Brazil had the highest number of reported cases from 1975 to 2006. In Peru, outbreaks involving more than 20 cases of bat-transmitted human rabies were reported during the 1980s and 1990s. During this period, a smaller number of cases were reported from outbreaks in Brazil. A comparison of data from field studies conducted in Brazil in 2005 with those from the previous decade suggests similar bat-bite situations at the local level. The objective of this study was to review the epidemiological situation and, on the basis of this information, discuss possible factors associated with the outbreaks. Prevention and control measures already recommended for dealing with this problem are also reviewed, and some further suggestions are provided.

From Amazonia to the Atlantic forest: Molecular phylogeny of Phyzelaphryninae frogs reveals unexpected diversity and a striking biogeographic pattern emphasizing conservation challenges

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação do valor prognóstico da detecção do status quimérico de pacientes após o transplante alogênico de células progenitoras hematopoéticas

Este trabalho teve por objetivo correlacionar o status quimérico de pacientes pós -TCPH alogênico com parâmetros clínicos, para avaliar o valor preditivo dos achados laboratorias de quimerismo. Amostras de sangue de 98 pacientes (67 em seguimento e 31 novos casos) foram submetidas à análise do status quimérico pós-TCPH. Os locianalisados por biologia molecular foram CS1PO, TPOX, F13A1, FESFPS, HUMTH01, VWA, SE33, HUMARA, HUMD21S11 e Amelogenina. Precocidade da evidência laboratorial de quimerismo misto (QM), em relação ao aparecimento dos sintomas clínicos de recaída, foi observada em 9 dos 12 pacientes nas LA, ou seja, nesses casos, a primeira manifestação de QM foi detectada pelo exame laboratorial antes de qualquer evidência citológica ou clínica de recaída. em todos eles, houve uma mudança terapêutica relacionada com esse momento do aparecimento do QM. em 100% dos pacientes com QM na LMC, a detecção do quimerismo pelo exame laboratorial foi anterior a qualquer evidência citológica ou clínica de recaída. de uma maneira geral, o exame laboratorial da avaliação do status quimérico pós-TCPH alogênico pela análise dos locihipervariáveis do genoma, mostrou ser um exame sensível, com detecção de até 1% de QM e precoce, visto que, muitas vezes, foi a primeira manifestação de doença residual antes de qualquer evidência citológica ou clínica da mesma. A associação da existência de QM e a recaída clínica e/ou óbito fica mais evidente nos casos de LA do que nos casos de LMC e AAS.

The Brazilian pediatric myelodysplastic cooperative group strategies: are they relevant to improve educational approach and correct diagnosis?

Brazil is a wide country with huge contrasts. Its peculiarities can highlight environmental factors that could influence the frequencies of different cancers. The standard treatment and results achieved from several different areas of the country may not be found in others. The establishment of a national cooperative group has the potential to improve outcomes. The The Brazilian Cooperative Group on Pediatric Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndrome (BCG-MDS-PED) was first organized in January 1997 as a working group of hematologists, pediatric oncologists, pediatric-hematologists, molecular biologists and other professionals in order to study pediatric (age < 18 years) MDS. Six distinct subcommittees constituted with members from several universities: cytology, histopathology, clinical, cytogenetics, molecular biology and epidemiology. The goals of the BCG-MDS-PED were: (i) to offer support for diagnosis and orientation for treatment; (ii) educational Support for the colleagues all over the country and (iii) research on pathogenesis and new approaches for pediatric MDS patients. There are socio-economical differences among the five regions of the country. The BCG-MDS-PED believes that it is absolutely necessary to Study the clinical, cellular, molecular and epidemiological aspects of MDS, taking in account these peculiar differences among populations and regions. Since 1997, 114 pediatric cases were referred to the BCG-MDS-PED from 21 centres. Seven Brazilian states have sent cases to the group, 31 patients were referred from universities, 73 patients from pediatric oncology units (foundations) and 10 patients came from private clinics. Some of these patients have been followed up and/or treated by the physician who referred them to the BCG-MDS-PED for confirmation of the initial diagnosis. The majority of these physicians have required orientation on diagnostic and treatment issues, as well as to complete cytogenetic and molecular studies. From these 114 patients, 64 patients were confirmed as MDS. We believe that, the more numerous the MDS-studied cases, the more experienced will be the referee group on clinical and laboratory features on childhood MDS in Brazil. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier B.V. Ltd.