Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries

Using the theoretical framework of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), we perform an empirical investigation on how widespread is the predictability of cay {a modi ed consumption-wealth ratio { once we consider a set of important countries from a global perspective. We chose to work with the set of G7 countries, which represent more than 64% of net global wealth and 46% of global GDP at market exchange rates. We evaluate the forecasting performance of cay using a panel-data approach, since applying cointegration and other time-series techniques is now standard practice in the panel-data literature. Hence, we generalize Lettau and Ludvigson's tests for a panel of important countries. We employ macroeconomic and nancial quarterly data for the group of G7 countries, forming an unbalanced panel. For most countries, data is available from the early 1990s until 2014Q1, but for the U.S. economy it is available from 1981Q1 through 2014Q1. Results of an exhaustive empirical investigation are overwhelmingly in favor of the predictive power of cay in forecasting future stock returns and excess returns.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Illegitimate identity in the middle of an ideological crisis and tensions in the consumption network: a study on why plus-size fashion brands are illegitimate fashion elements

O presente trabalho explora as causas pelas quais o campo da moda plus size carece de legitimidade com as consumidoras plus size. Eu explorei o assunto em três artigos. No primeiro, eu estudo o processo de legitimação de um novo mercado emergente, o mercado da moda plus size brasileira e os desafios para sua a institucionalização. Eu conduzi dezessete entrevistas com consumidoras plus size, uma netnografia em quatro blogs de moda plus size brasileiros e analisei de maneira semiótica um site que vende roupas de moda plus size. Meus resultados indicam que, apesar de ter atores legítimos que promovem essas marcas de moda plus size, o campo da moda plus size ainda é percebido como uma versão vergonhosa do campo da moda. Defendo aqui que o fato de uma das lógicas de campo da moda plus size ser estigma, acaba afetando os projetos identitários das consumidoras de maneira depreciativa, de forma elas não se envolvem em práticas de capital cultural que ocorrem dentro do campo da moda plus size. No segundo artigo, eu conduzi uma introspecção genealógica em que eu pesquisei questões de identidade. Como uma mulher (que se assume ) plus size, eu imaginei que seria relevante para olhar para dentro de mim mesma, a fim de explorar a forma como a minha identidade liga-se com a rede semiótica-material que me rodeia em termos de moda, alimentos e outros elementos. Meus dados vieram tanto de técnicas de introspecção simultâneas, quanto retrospectivas. Em termos teóricos, eu usei a ideia de ―assemblages‖ e eu foquei minha análise tanto nos aspectos materiais da minha rede de consumo, quanto na estabilidade da rede. As consequências da minha assemblage estão ligadas a uma gestão de qualidade total da minha identidade, tanto online como off-line, refletidas em práticas de consumo que se conectam à ideia de uma lógica de consumo bulímica em que o consumo de alimentos e gestão corpo estão interligadas. Por fim, no meu terceiro artigo, eu explorei o conceito de identidade a partir do consumo da moda feminina plus size. Foram feitas catorze entrevistas fenomenológicas, cujos dados foram analisados a partir de uma perspectiva hermenêutica. Três categorias temáticas emergiram da análise de dados: a construção da identidade por meio da moda, elementos de identidade plus size e estratégias criativas para lidar com a falta de produtos para mulheres plus size no varejo. Entre os principais resultados, destacam-se a forma como o termo plus size atua como estigma, influenciando projetos de identidade das consumidoras, o papel do varejo no processo de estigmatização e a saga épica de compras, que envolve um "mercado negro", com a participação de vendedores. Eu concluo discutindo o papel da identidade na instabilidade do campo da moda plus size.

APPLICATION of THE HAZARD ANALYSIS and CRITICAL CONTROL POINT (HACCP) SYSTEM on THE MUSHROOM PROCESSING LINE FOR FRESH CONSUMPTION

The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) is a preventive system that intends to guarantee the safety and harmlessness of food. It improves the quality of products as it eliminates possible defects during the process, and saves costs by practically eliminating final product inspection. This work describes the typical hazards encountered on the mushroom processing line for fresh consumption. Throughout the process, only the reception stage of mushrooms has been considered a critical control point (CCP). The main hazards at this stage were: the presence of unauthorised phytosanitary products; larger doses of such products than those permitted; the presence of pathogenic bacteria or thermo-stable enterotoxins. Putting into practice such knowledge would provide any industry that processes mushrooms for fresh consumption with a self-control HACCP-based system for its own productions.

The Effects of Physical Fitness and Body Composition on Oxygen Consumption and Heart Rate Recovery After High-Intensity Exercise

The aim of this study was to investigate the potential relationship between excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC), heart rate recovery (HRR) and their respective time constants (tvo(2) and t(HR)) and body composition and aerobic fitness (VO(2)max) variables after an anaerobic effort. 14 professional cyclists (age = 28.4 +/- 4.8 years, height = 176.0 +/- 6.7 cm, body mass = 74.4 +/- 8.1 kg, VO(2)max = 66.8 +/- 7.6 mL. kg(-1) . min(-1)) were recruited. Each athlete made 3 visits to the laboratory with 24h between each visit. During the first visit, a total and segmental body composition assessment was carried out. During the second, the athletes undertook an incremental test to determine VO(2)max. In the final visit, EPOC (15-min) and HRR were measured after an all-out 30s Wingate test. The results showed that EPOC is positively associated with % body fat (r = 0.64), total body fat (r = 0.73), fat-free mass (r = 0.61) and lower limb fat-free mass (r = 0.55) and negatively associated with HRR (r = - 0.53, p < 0.05 for all). HRR had a significant negative correlation with total body fat and % body fat (r = - 0.62, r = - 0.56 respectively, p < 0.05 for all). These findings indicate that VO(2)max does not influence HRR or EPOC after high-intensity exercise. Even in short-term exercise, the major metabolic disturbance due to higher muscle mass and total muscle mass may increase EPOC. However, body fat impedes HRR and delays recovery of oxygen consumption after effort in highly trained athletes.

Effect of the consumption of a new symbiotic shake on glycemia and cholesterol levels in elderly people with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background: The consumption of foods containing probiotic and prebiotic ingredients is growing consistently every year, and in view of the limited number of studies investigating their effect in the elderly.Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the consumption of a symbiotic shake containing Lactobacillus acidophilus, Bifidobacterium bifidum and fructooligosaccharides on glycemia and cholesterol levels in elderly people.Methods: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was conducted on twenty volunteers (ten for placebo group and ten for symbiotic group), aged 50 to 60 years. The criteria for inclusion in the study were: total cholesterol > 200 mg/dL; triglycerides > 200 mg/dL and glycemia > 110 mg/dL. Over a total test period of 30 days, 10 individuals (the symbiotic group) consumed a daily dose of 200 mL of a symbiotic shake containing 10(8) UFC/mL Lactobacillus acidophilus, 10(8) UFC/mL Bifidobacterium bifidum and 2 g oligofructose, while 10 other volunteers (the placebo group) drank daily the same amount of a shake that did not contain any symbiotic bacteria. Blood samples were collected 15 days prior to the start of the experiment and at 10-day intervals after the beginning of the shake intake. The standard lipid profile (total cholesterol, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol) and glycemia, or blood sugar levels, were evaluated by an enzyme colorimetric assay.Results: The results of the symbiotic group showed a non-significant reduction (P > 0.05) in total cholesterol and triglycerides, a significant increase (P < 0.05) in HDL cholesterol and a significant reduction (P < 0.05) in fasting glycemia. No significant changes were observed in the placebo group.Conclusion: The consumption of symbiotic shake resulted in a significant increase in HDL and a significant decrease of glycemia.

Biomass consumption and CO2, CO and main hydrocarbon gas emissions in an Amazonian forest clearing fire

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Honey consumption in the state of São Paulo: a risk to human health?

Infantile botulism was recognized in 1976 as a paralyzing disease caused by the ingestion of viable spores that would germinate and colonize the intestinal tract of infants, with local production and absorption of Clostridium botulinum toxin. The possible origins of botulinic spores are dust and honey, which has been identified as a dietary risk factor for infantile botulism. The objectives of the present study were to investigate 100 honey samples obtained in the state of São Paulo (Brazil) in terms of incidence of botulinic spores and of microbiologic quality, in agreement with Decree 367/9. All 100 samples analysed were negative for the presence of Salmonella, Shigella, total coliforms. C botulinum spores were present in 3 samples (3%) and molds and yeasts, in 64 samples (64%), but only 25 (25%) exceeded established criteria, with counts ranging from zero to 1.5 x 10(5) CFU/g. The presence of small sporogenic Gram-positive rods was observed in 42 (42%) of the 100 samples tested but these bacteria were not identified. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphological changes on the hard palatine mucosa of rats (Rattus norvegicus albinus) after chronic alcohol consumption

In order to examine the effects of alcohol on the hard palatine mucosa of rats, sixty adult female rats (Rattus norvegicus albinus) were divided into two experimental groups. The control group received solid diet (Purina rat chow) and tap water ad libitum. The alcoholic group received the same solid diet and was allowed to drink only sugar cane brandy dissolved in 30% Gay Lussac (v/v). At the end of periods of 90, 180 and 270 days of treatment, the animals at estro were sacrificed and the hard palatine mucosa were prepared for TEM and SEM methods. The basal cells of the alcoholic groups (90, 180 and 270 days of treatment) demonstrated some alterations: the intercellular spaces between these cells were higher, presented cytoplasmatic lipid droplets and autolysis. Also, the connective tissue showed intense lipid droplets accumulation in the alcoholic groups. These modifications suggested that chronic alcohol ingestion was able to modify the integrity of the cells in the rat hard palatine mucosa.

Mast Cells and Ethanol Consumption: Interactions in the Prostate, Epididymis and Testis of UChB Rats

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)