High-resolution, unstructured meshes for hydrodynamic models of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Accuracy and mesh generation are key issues for the high-resolution hydrodynamic modelling of the whole Great Barrier Reef. Our objective is to generate suitable unstructured grids that can resolve topological and dynamical features like tidal jets and recirculation eddies in the wake of islands. A new strategy is suggested to refine the mesh in areas of interest taking into account the bathymetric field and an approximated distance to islands and reefs. Such a distance is obtained by solving an elliptic differential operator, with specific boundary conditions. Meshes produced illustrate both the validity and the efficiency of the adaptive strategy. Selection of refinement and geometrical parameters is discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Vibrationally mediated photodissociation of nitrous acid

Hitherto unobserved overtone and combination bands of nitrous acid have been investigated by Fourier-transform infrared absorption spectroscopy and through the resonance enhancements they provide in the two-photon excition spectrum for forming OH(X) photofragments. Analysis of the band profiles associated with the second and third O—H stretching overtones of trans-HONO, and of the energy disposal into the OH(X) fragments resulting from two-photon dissociation mediated by these overtone levels, provide some clues as to the mechanism for intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) within these vibrationally excited molecules. The work serves to highlight further the extreme sensitivity of vibrationally mediated photodissociation (VMP) as a means of revealing weak O—H stretching overtones, even in situations (as here) where the species of interest is but a minor constituent of an equilibrium mixture.

An exploration of the drivers to bio-security collective action among a sample of UK cattle and sheep farmers

At present, collective action regarding bio-security among UK cattle and sheep farmers is rare. Despite the occurrence of catastrophic livestock diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and foot and mouth disease (FMD), within recent decades, there are few national or local farmer-led animal health schemes. To explore the reasons for this apparent lack of interest, we utilised a socio-psychological approach to disaggregate the cognitive, emotive and contextual factors driving bio-security behaviour among cattle and sheep farmers in the United Kingdom (UK). In total, we interviewed 121 farmers in South-West England and Wales. The main analytical tools included a content, cluster and logistic regression analysis. The results of the content analysis illustrated apparent 'dissonance' between bio-security attitudes and behaviour.(1) Despite the heavy toll animal disease has taken on the agricultural economy, most study participants were dismissive of the many measures associated with bio-security. Justification for this lack of interest was largely framed in relation to the collective attribution or blame for the disease threats themselves. Indeed, epidemic diseases were largely related to external actors and agents. Reasons for outbreaks included inadequate border control, in tandem with ineffective policies and regulations. Conversely, endemic livestock disease was viewed as a problem for 'bad' farmers and not an issue for those individuals who managed their stock well. As such, there was little utility in forming groups to address what was largely perceived as an individual problem. Further, we found that attitudes toward bio-security did not appear to be influenced by any particular source of information per se. While strong negative attitudes were found toward specific sources of bio-security information, e.g. government leaflets, these appear to simply reflect widely held beliefs. In relation to actual bio-security behaviours, the logistic regression analysis revealed no significant difference between in-scheme and out of scheme farmers. We concluded that in order to support collective action with regard to bio-security, messages need to be reframed and delivered from a neutral source. Efforts to support group formation must also recognise and address the issues relating to perceptions of social connectedness among the communities involved. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Origins of Lactase Persistence in Europe

Lactase persistence (LP) is common among people of European ancestry, but with the exception of some African, Middle Eastern and southern Asian groups, is rare or absent elsewhere in the world. Lactase gene haplotype conservation around a polymorphism strongly associated with LP in Europeans (-13,910 C/T) indicates that the derived allele is recent in origin and has been subject to strong positive selection. Furthermore, ancient DNA work has shown that the -13,910*T (derived) allele was very rare or absent in early Neolithic central Europeans. It is unlikely that LP would provide a selective advantage without a supply of fresh milk, and this has lead to a gene-culture coevolutionary model where lactase persistence is only favoured in cultures practicing dairying, and dairying is more favoured in lactase persistent populations. We have developed a flexible demic computer simulation model to explore the spread of lactase persistence, dairying, other subsistence practices and unlinked genetic markers in Europe and western Asia's geographic space. Using data on -13,910*T allele frequency and farming arrival dates across Europe, and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate parameters of interest, we infer that the -13,910*T allele first underwent selection among dairying farmers around 7,500 years ago in a region between the central Balkans and central Europe, possibly in association with the dissemination of the Neolithic Linearbandkeramik culture over Central Europe. Furthermore, our results suggest that natural selection favouring a lactase persistence allele was not higher in northern latitudes through an increased requirement for dietary vitamin D. Our results provide a coherent and spatially explicit picture of the coevolution of lactase persistence and dairying in Europe.

Attitudes of landscape professionals towards naturalistic versus formal urban landscapes in the UK

The last 30 years have seen a tide of interest sweeping across Europe in the development of nature in cities, and an increasing amount of landscape development in urban areas has involved the use of 'naturalistic' styles. This is an increasing attempt to find ways for urbanism and nature to co-exist. However, there have been considerable discussions among professionals regarding the advantages and disadvantages of 'naturalistic' styles in urban areas. This research examines professional attitudes to 'naturalistic' landscape styles in Britain, in contrast to more traditional, formal landscape styles, and aims to find out whether the interest in natural landscapes is really a fashion among landscape professionals. A self-administered postal survey was carried out using both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques and analysis. The survey included 500 professionals from parks and recreation departments of local authorities, private landscape practices and conservation trusts, and resulted in a satisfactory response rate of 53 %. The results of this study suggested that professionals recognise most of the values attached to naturalistic landscapes in urban areas. However, possible benefits that natural areas may have for urban people are not attached to naturalistic landscapes alone. The study also revealed that the naturalistic style is highly popular among conservation trusts but is less so among professionals from local authorities and private landscape practices who seem to appreciate both styles and believe that these styles are not separable from each other and should co-exist in an urban environment. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Role of gamma-MSH peptides in the regulation of adrenal steroidogenesis

Alpha-, beta- and gamma-melanocyte stimulating hormones (MSHs) are peptides derived from the ACTH precursor, pro-opiomelanocortin. All three peptides have been highly conserved throughout evolution but their exact biological function in mammals is still largely obscure. In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in alpha-MSH and its role in the regulation of feeding. Gamma-MSH by contrast has been shown to be involved in the regulation of adrenal steroidogenesis and also has effects on the cardiovascular and renal systems. This review will provide an overview of the role that gamma-MSH peptides play in the regulation of adrenal steroidogenesis. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of ancestral character states on phylogenies

Biologists frequently attempt to infer the character states at ancestral nodes of a phylogeny from the distribution of traits observed in contemporary organisms. Because phylogenies are normally inferences from data, it is desirable to account for the uncertainty in estimates of the tree and its branch lengths when making inferences about ancestral states or other comparative parameters. Here we present a general Bayesian approach for testing comparative hypotheses across statistically justified samples of phylogenies, focusing on the specific issue of reconstructing ancestral states. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for sampling phylogenetic trees and for investigating the parameters of a statistical model of trait evolution. We describe how to combine information about the uncertainty of the phylogeny with uncertainty in the estimate of the ancestral state. Our approach does not constrain the sample of trees only to those that contain the ancestral node or nodes of interest, and we show how to reconstruct ancestral states of uncertain nodes using a most-recent-common-ancestor approach. We illustrate the methods with data on ribonuclease evolution in the Artiodactyla. Software implementing the methods ( BayesMultiState) is available from the authors.

Synthesis and characterization of biocompatible, thermoresponsive ABC and ABA triblock copolymer gelators

The synthesis of doubly thermoresponsive PPO-PMPC-PNIPAM triblock copolymer gelators by atom transfer radical polymerization using a PPO-based macroinitiator is described. Provided that the PPO block is sufficiently long, dynamic light scattering and differential scanning calorimetry studies confirm the presence of two separate thermal transitions corresponding to micellization and gelation, as expected. However, these ABC-type triblock copolymers proved to be rather inefficient gelators: free-standing gels at 37 degrees C required a triblock copolymer concentration of around 20 wt%. This gelator performance should be compared with copolymer concentrations of 6-7 wt% required for the PNIPAM-PMPC-PNIPAM triblock copolymers reported previously. Clearly, the separation of micellar self-assembly from gel network formation does not lead to enhanced gelator efficiencies, at least for this particular system. Nevertheless, there are some features of interest in the present study. In particular, close inspection of the viscosity vs temperature plot obtained for a PPO43-PMPC160-PNIPAM(81) triblock copolymer revealed a local minimum in viscosity. This is consistent with intramicelle collapse of the outer PNIPAM blocks prior to the development of the intermicelle hydrophobic interactions that are a prerequisite for macroscopic gelation.

Techno-economic modelling and cost functions of CO2 capture processes

The paper presents the techno-economic modelling of CO2 capture process in coal-fired power plants. An overall model is being developed to compare carbon capture and sequestration options at locations within the UK, and for studies of the sensitivity of the cost of disposal to changes in the major parameters of the most promising solutions identified. Technological options of CO2 capture have been studied and cost estimation relationships (CERs) for the chosen options calculated. Created models are related to the capital, operation and maintenance cost. A total annualised cost of plant electricity output and amount of CO2 avoided have been developed. The influence of interest rates and plant life has been analysed as well. The CERs are included as an integral part of the overall model.

Responsiveness to change by standard-form contract drafters: A case study of the FIDIC White Book

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the Fédération Internationale des Ingénieurs-Conseils (FIDIC) White Book standard form of building contract. It tracks the changes to this contract over its four editions, and seeks to identify their underlying causes. Design/methodology/approach – The changes made to the White Book are quantified using a specific type of quantitative content analysis. The amended clauses are then examined to understand the nature of the changes made. Findings – The length of the contract increased by 34 per cent between 1990 and 2006. A large proportion of the overall increase can be attributed to the clauses dealing with “conflict of interest/corruption” and “dispute resolution”. In both instances, the FIDIC drafting committees have responded to international developments to discourage corruption, and to encourage the use of alternative dispute resolution. Between 1998 and 2006, the average length of the sentences increased slightly, raising the question of whether long sentences are easily understood by users of contracts. Research limitations/implications – Quantification of text appears to be particularly useful for the analysis of documents which are regularly updated because changes can be clearly identified and the length of sentences can be determined, leading to conclusions about the readability of the text. However, caution is needed because changes of great relevance can be made to contract clauses without actually affecting their length. Practical implications – The paper will be instructive for contract drafters and informative for users of FIDIC's White Book. Originality/value – Quantifying text has been rarely used regarding standard-form contracts in the field of construction.

Language transmission in the family in Wales: an example of innovative language planning.

This paper examines the achievements to date of Twf (“Growth”) — a project initiated as part of language planning efforts in Wales to encourage families to bring up their children to be bilingual. Evidence is presented of the ways in which the project has succeeded in raising awareness of the advantages of bilingualism amongst parents, prospective parents and the public at large by working strategically with health professionals and Early Years organizations, and by developing a range of highly innovative promotional materials. Given the central importance of the family as a site of intergenerational language transmission, the achievements of this project are likely to be of interest to those concerned with language planning in other minority communities in many other parts of the world. The lessons for language planning both in Wales and in other settings are discussed.

Prebiotic interventions for the improvement of gut health

The increasing awareness of the role that the colonic microflora plays in maintaining host health within the gastrointestinal tract and systemically through the absorption of metabolites, has attracted a lot of interest, within the nutritional sciences, in developing dietary tools for controlling the colonic microflora. Among those dietary tools, prebiotics aim to improve health by stimulating numbers and/or activities of the beneficial bacteria in the gut, mainly bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. The ability of incorporating prebiotics in various food processes together with recent developments in understanding how prebiotics are metabolised by health promoting bacteria, allow us to specifically aim such dietary interventions towards selected population groups, such as infants and elderly, and disease states, such as colon cancer and irritable bowel disease.