TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Synthesis, structure, and redox states of homoleptic d-block metal complexes with bis-1,2,4-triazin-3-yl-pyridine and 1,2,4-triazin-3-yl-bipyridine extractants

it has been established that triazinyl bipyridines (hemi-BTPs) and bis-triazinyl pyridines (BTPs), ligands which are currently being investigated as possible ligands for the separation of actinides from lanthanides in nuclear waste, are able to form homoleptic complexes with first row transition metals such as cobalt(IT), copper(II), iron(II), manganese(II), nickel(II) and zinc(II). The metal complexes exhibit six-co-ordinate octahedral structures and redox states largely analogous to those of the related terpyridine complexes. The reactivity of the different redox states of cobalt bis-hemi-BTP complex in aqueous environments has been studied with two-phase electrochemistry by immobilisation of the essentially water-insoluble metal complexes on graphite electrodes and the immersion of this modified electrode in an aqueous electrolyte. It was found that redox potentials for the metal-centred reactions were pH-independent whereas the potentials for the ligand-centred reactions were strongly pH-dependent. The reductive degradation of these complexes has been investigated by computational methods. Solvent extraction experiments have been carried out for a range of metals and these show that cobalt(II) and nickel(II) as well as palladium(II), cadmium(II) and lead(II) were all extracted with the ligands 1e and 2c with higher distribution ratios that was observed for americium(III) under the same conditions. The implications of this result for the use of these ligands to separate actinides from nuclear waste are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectroscopy of highly excited vibrational states of HCN in its ground electronic state

An experimental technique based on a scheme of vibrationally mediated photodissociation has been developed and applied to the spectroscopic study of highly excited vibrational states in HCN, with energies between 29 000 and 30 000 cm(-1). The technique consists of four sequential steps: in the first one, a high power laser is used to vibrationally excite the sample to an intermediate state, typically (0,0,4), the nu(3) mode being approximately equivalent to the C-H stretching vibration. Then a second laser is used to search for transitions between this intermediate state and highly vibrationally excited states. When one of these transitions is found, HCN molecules are transferred to a highly excited vibrational state. Third, a ultraviolet laser photodissociates the highly excited molecules to produce H and CN radicals in its A (2)Pi electronic state. Finally, a fourth laser (probe) detects the presence of the CN(A) photofragments by means of an A-->B-->X laser induced fluorescence scheme. The spectra obtained with this technique, consisting of several rotationally resolved vibrational bands, have been analyzed. The positions and rotational parameters of the states observed are presented and compared with the results of a state-of-the-art variational calculation. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Highly excited vibrational states of HCN around 30 000 cm(-1)

This article describes the analysis and interpretation of rovibrational spectra involving highly excited vibrational states in the molecule of HCN. The spectra were obtained by means of the vibrationally mediated photodissociation technique. Analysis of the spectra revealed four bands with Sigma-Sigma structures that, once fitted, provided the energies and rotational constants of four new, highly excited vibrational states in the region of the potential energy surface near and above 30 000 cm(-1). All the states could be identified with the help of a state-of-the-art variational calculation. Together with the states already observed in previous works, eight highly excited states have so far been identified in this region. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Excited states of nitro-polypyridine metal complexes and their ultrafast decay. Time-resolved IR absorption, spectroelectrochemistry, and TD-DFT calculations of fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)3(5-Nitro-1,10-phenanthroline)]

The lowest absorption band of fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(5-NO2-phen)] encompasses two close-lying MLCT transitions. The lower one is directed to LUMO, which is heavily localized on the NO2 group. The UV-vis absorption spectrum is well accounted for by TD-DFT (G03/PBEPBE1/CPCM), provided that the solvent, MeCN, is included in the calculations. Near-UV excitation of fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(5-NO2-phen)] populates a triplet metal to ligand charge-transfer excited state, (MLCT)-M-3, that was characterized by picosecond time-resolved IR spectroscopy. Large positive shifts of the v(CO) bands upon excitation (+70 cm(-1) for the A'(1) band) signify a very large charge separation between the Re(Cl)(CO)3 unit and the 5-NO2-phen ligand. Details of the excited-state character are revealed by TD-DFT calculated changes of electron density distribution. Experimental excited-state v(CO) wavenumbers agree well with those calculated by DFT. The (MLCT)-M-3 state decays with a ca. 10 ps lifetime (in MeCN) into another transient species, that was identified by TRIR and TD-DFT calculations as an intraligand (3)n pi* excited state, whereby the electron density is excited from the NO2 oxygen lone pairs to the pi* system of 5-NO2-phen. This state is short-lived, decaying to the ground state with a similar to 30 ps lifetime. The presence of an n pi* state seems to be the main factor responsible for the lack of emission and the very short lifetimes of 3 MLCT states seen in all d(6)-metal complexes of nitro-polypyridyl ligands. Localization of the excited electron density in the lowest (MLCT)-M-3 states parallels localization of the extra electron in the reduced state that is characterized by a very small negative shift of the v(CO) IR bands (-6 cm(-1) for A'(1)) but a large downward shift of the v(s)(NO2) IR band. The Re-Cl bond is unusually stable toward reduction, whereas the Cl ligand is readily substituted upon oxidation.

Evidence for the chaotic origin of Northern Annular Mode variability

Exponential spectra are found to characterize variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) for periods less than 36 days. This corresponds to the observed rounding of the autocorrelation function at lags of a few days. The characteristic persistence timescales during winter and summer is found to be ∼5 days for these high frequencies. Beyond periods of 36 days the characteristic decorrelation timescale is ∼20 days during winter and ∼6 days in summer. We conclude that the NAM cannot be described by autoregressive models for high frequencies; the spectra are more consistent with low-order chaos. We also propose that the NAM exhibits regime behaviour, however the nature of this has yet to be identified.

Protecting recognized Geneva Convention refugees outside their states of asylum

This article highlights the predicament of persons recognized as refugees according to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (CSR1951 refugees) when they travel outside their state of asylum. Their status entails ipso facto that, if they are ill-treated abroad, they cannot turn to representatives of their state of nationality and request its diplomatic protection, nor can they expect to receive its consular assistance. It is submitted that a state of asylum ought to extend the scope of protection that it offers CSR1951 refugees residing in its territory, and provide them diplomatic protection and consular assistance when they travel abroad as if they were its nationals. Four claims are advanced in support of this contention: First: the advent of human rights treaties has not rendered obsolete the protection of nationals abroad nor has the practice fallen into disuse. On the contrary, protection abroad retains its pedigree and significance, as is illustrated by the recently adopted International Law Commission's Draft Articles on Diplomatic Protection and by frequent resort to consular assistance. Second: while states previously enjoyed unfettered discretion concerning whether and when to protect their nationals abroad, recent developments in domestic jurisdictions as well as in European Union (EU) treaties point to the potential emergence of a qualified duty to exercise state protection or to be willing to provide justifications for its refusal. These developments call particular attention to the vulnerability of CSR1951 refugees: the professed aim of the EU treaty regime is that EU citizens should enjoy effective state protection wherever they travel; by contrast, CSR1951 refugees are in need of state protection wherever they travel. Third: according to CSR1951, states of asylum are required to issue Convention Travel Documents (CTDs) to recognized refugees lawfully staying in their territory. While CTDs do not in of themselves authorize states of asylum to provide protection abroad to their CSR1951 refugees, they reflect partial recognition of the instrumental role of these states in facilitating safe refugee travel. Fourth: while the 'nationality of claims' requirement remains pivotal to the institution of diplomatic protection, and efforts to effectuate its general relaxation have thus far failed, the International Law Commission (ILC) has 'carved out' an exception authorizing states of asylum to provide protection abroad to their recognized refugees. The ILC's protection-enhancing agenda, reflecting progressive development of the law, is laudable, even though it has opted for a rather cautious approach.

The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that, while such effects are likely small compared to other sources of uncertainty, models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.

The earth, the sky and the water's edge: changing beliefs in the earlier prehistory of Northern Europe

There have been two kinds of study of ancient beliefs in the earlier prehistory of Scandinavia. One considers the impact of ideas which originated further to the south and east. It considers a cosmology based on the movements of the sun. A second tradition develops out of the ethnography of the circumpolar region and combines archaeological evidence with the beliefs of hunter-gatherers. It postulates the existence of a three-tier cosmology in which people could communicate between different worlds. This paper argues that certain elements that are thought to epitomize the ‘Southern’ system might have been suggested by existing ideas within Scandinavia itself. Both sets of beliefs came to influence one another, but they became increasingly distinct towards the end of the Bronze Age. This paper reconsiders the rock carvings, metalwork and mortuary cairns of that period and the Iron Age in relation to the process of religious change.

Seasonal persistence of northern low- and middle-latitude anomalies of ozone and other trace gases in the upper stratosphere

Analysis of observed ozone profiles in Northern Hemisphere low and middle latitudes reveals the seasonal persistence of ozone anomalies in both the lower and upper stratosphere. Principal component analysis is used to detect that above 16 hPa the persistence is strongest in the latitude band 15–45°N, while below 16 hPa the strongest persistence is found over 45–60°N. In both cases, ozone anomalies persist through the entire year from November to October. The persistence of ozone anomalies in the lower stratosphere is presumably related to the wintertime ozone buildup with subsequent photochemical relaxation through summer, as previously found for total ozone. The persistence in the upper stratosphere is more surprising, given the short lifetime of Ox at these altitudes. It is hypothesized that this “seasonal memory” in the upper stratospheric ozone anomalies arises from the seasonal persistence of transport-induced wintertime NOy anomalies, which then perturb the ozone chemistry throughout the rest of the year. This hypothesis is confirmed by analysis of observations of NO2, NOx, and various long-lived trace gases in the upper stratosphere, which are found to exhibit the same seasonal persistence. Previous studies have attributed much of the year-to-year variability in wintertime extratropical upper stratospheric ozone to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) through transport-induced NOy (and hence NO2) anomalies but have not identified any statistical connection between the QBO and summertime ozone variability. Our results imply that through this “seasonal memory,” the QBO has an asynchronous effect on ozone in the low to midlatitude upper stratosphere during summer and early autumn.