Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

A survey of sodium hypochlorite use by general dental practitioners and endodontists in Australia

Background: Sodium hypochlorite is used commonly as an endodontic irrigant, but there are no published reports that provide details of its use. This survey sought to determine the percentage of Australian dentists who practiced endodontics, whether they used sodium hypochlorite for irrigation, and the manner of dilution, storage and dispensing sodium hypochlorite used by both dentists and endodontists. Methods: All Australian endodontists and a stratified random sample of 200 general dentists in Australia were surveyed to address the issues identified above. Results: Almost 98 per cent of dentists surveyed performed endodontic treatment. Among endodontists, nearly 94 per cent used sodium hypochlorite for irrigation compared with just under 75 per cent of general dentists: Sodium hypochlorite use by general dentists was more common in Victoria and South Australia than in other States. An infant sanitizer (Milton or Johnson's Antibacterial Solution) was used by just over 92 per cent of general practitioners and by more than 67 per cent of endodontists. All other respondents used domestic bleach. One hundred and sixty four of the respondents (80 per cent of endodontists and over 90 per cent of general dentists) used a 1 per cent w/v solution. Ten practitioners used a 4 per cent w/v solution, five used a 2 per cent w/v solution and four used a 1.5 per cent w/v solution. Eighty per cent of the practitioners who diluted their sodium hypochlorite before use, used demineralized water for this purpose. The remainder used tap water. Only four practitioners stored sodium hypochlorite in a manner which risked light exposure and loss of available chlorine content. Conclusions: Sodium hypochlorite is commonly used as an endodontic irrigant and Australian dentists generally stored the material correctly.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

Discrete element modelling of the influence of lifters on power draw of tumbling mills

Crushing and grinding are the most energy intensive part of the mineral recovery process. A major part of rock size reduction occurs in tumbling mills. Empirical models for the power draw of tumbling mills do not consider the effect of lifters. Discrete element modelling was used to investigate the effect of lifter condition on the power draw of tumbling mill. Results obtained with PFC3D code show that lifter condition will have a significant influence on the power draw and on the mode of energy consumption in the mill. Relatively high lifters will consume less power than low lifters, under otherwise identical conditions. The fraction of the power that will be consumed as friction will increase as the height of the lifters decreases. This will result in less power being used for high intensity comminution caused by the impacts. The fraction of the power that will be used to overcome frictional resistance is determined by the material's coefficient of friction. Based on the modelled results, it appears that the effective coefficient of friction for in situ mill is close to 0.1. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying discrete element modelling to vertical and horizontal shaft impact crushers

The PFC3D (particle flow code) that models the movement and interaction of particles by the DEM techniques was employed to simulate the particle movement and to calculate the velocity and energy distribution of collision in two types of impact crusher: the Canica vertical shaft crusher and the BJD horizontal shaft swing hammer mill. The distribution of collision energies was then converted into a product size distribution for a particular ore type using JKMRC impact breakage test data. Experimental data of the Canica VSI crusher treating quarry and the BJD hammer mill treating coal were used to verify the DEM simulation results. Upon the DEM procedures being validated, a detailed simulation study was conducted to investigate the effects of the machine design and operational conditions on velocity and energy distributions of collision inside the milling chamber and on the particle breakage behaviour. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.