Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7�� 45��� and 12�� 45���N and 34�� 05��� and 39�� 45���E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6��C to 2.7��C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5��C to 2.44��C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9��C to 4.63��C and Tmin by 1��C to 4.6��C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous ���tuneable��� calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090���s than for the 2050���s, regardless of the SRES.

Numerical Feasibility Study for Treated Wastewater Recharge as a Tool to Impede Saltwater Intrusion in the Coastal Aquifer of Gaza ��� Palestine

The ongoing depletion of the coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip due to groundwater overexploitation has led to the process of seawater intrusion, which is continually becoming a serious problem in Gaza, as the seawater has further invaded into many sections along the coastal shoreline. As a first step to get a hold on the problem, the artificial neural network (ANN)-model has been applied as a new approach and an attractive tool to study and predict groundwater levels without applying physically based hydrologic parameters, and also for the purpose to improve the understanding of complex groundwater systems and which is able to show the effects of hydrologic, meteorological and anthropogenic impacts on the groundwater conditions. Prediction of the future behaviour of the seawater intrusion process in the Gaza aquifer is thus of crucial importance to safeguard the already scarce groundwater resources in the region. In this study the coupled three-dimensional groundwater flow and density-dependent solute transport model SEAWAT, as implemented in Visual MODFLOW, is applied to the Gaza coastal aquifer system to simulate the location and the dynamics of the saltwater���freshwater interface in the aquifer in the time period 2000-2010. A very good agreement between simulated and observed TDS salinities with a correlation coefficient of 0.902 and 0.883 for both steady-state and transient calibration is obtained. After successful calibration of the solute transport model, simulation of future management scenarios for the Gaza aquifer have been carried out, in order to get a more comprehensive view of the effects of the artificial recharge planned in the Gaza strip for some time on forestall, or even to remedy, the presently existing adverse aquifer conditions, namely, low groundwater heads and high salinity by the end of the target simulation period, year 2040. To that avail, numerous management scenarios schemes are examined to maintain the ground water system and to control the salinity distributions within the target period 2011-2040. In the first, pessimistic scenario, it is assumed that pumping from the aquifer continues to increase in the near future to meet the rising water demand, and that there is not further recharge to the aquifer than what is provided by natural precipitation. The second, optimistic scenario assumes that treated surficial wastewater can be used as a source of additional artificial recharge to the aquifer which, in principle, should not only lead to an increased sustainable yield of the latter, but could, in the best of all cases, revert even some of the adverse present-day conditions in the aquifer, i.e., seawater intrusion. This scenario has been done with three different cases which differ by the locations and the extensions of the injection-fields for the treated wastewater. The results obtained with the first (do-nothing) scenario indicate that there will be ongoing negative impacts on the aquifer, such as a higher propensity for strong seawater intrusion into the Gaza aquifer. This scenario illustrates that, compared with 2010 situation of the baseline model, at the end of simulation period, year 2040, the amount of saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer will be increased by about 35 %, whereas the salinity will be increased by 34 %. In contrast, all three cases of the second (artificial recharge) scenario group can partly revert the present seawater intrusion. From the water budget point of view, compared with the first (do nothing) scenario, for year 2040, the water added to the aquifer by artificial recharge will reduces the amount of water entering the aquifer by seawater intrusion by 81, 77and 72 %, for the three recharge cases, respectively. Meanwhile, the salinity in the Gaza aquifer will be decreased by 15, 32 and 26% for the three cases, respectively.

Moisture-dependent physical properties of locust bean (Parkia biglobosa) seeds

Seed moisture content is significant in the handling and processing of seeds. This work therefore determined the physical properties of Locust bean seeds as functions of seed moisture content in the moisture range of 5.9 ��� 28.2% dry basis. Mohsenin, Stepanoff and ASAE standard methods were used in determining the properties. Increases in seed dimensions vitz length = 10.2��1.0 ��� 11.3��0.9 mm; width = 8.5��0.8 ��� 9.1��0.6 mm; surface area = 191.2��24.6 ��� 208.3��26.3 mm2 ; geometric mean diameter = 7.78��0.49 ��� 8.12��0.03 and arithmetic mean diameter = 8.06��0.56 ��� 8.34��0.49 mm were recorded. Seed thickness = 5.49��0.43 ��� 5.26��0.62 mm; sphericity = 0.75��0.04 ��� 0.71��0.03; true density = 1251.96��55.5 - 1222��62.16 kgm-3 and porosity = 48.4��2.14 ��� 41.9��3.78 decreased. Static coefficient of friction increased on plywood (0.5��0.02 ��� 0.6��0.01), glass (0.4��0.05 ��� 0.5��0.01) and decreased on aluminium (0.5��0.02 ��� 0.5��0.04). A data of the physical properties of Locust bean; Parkia biglobosa was developed. This is useful for the design and development of equipment necessary for its handling and processing.

A Note on the Generalization Performance of Kernel Classifiers with Margin

We present distribution independent bounds on the generalization misclassification performance of a family of kernel classifiers with margin. Support Vector Machine classifiers (SVM) stem out of this class of machines. The bounds are derived through computations of the $V_gamma$ dimension of a family of loss functions where the SVM one belongs to. Bounds that use functions of margin distributions (i.e. functions of the slack variables of SVM) are derived.

On the Noise Model of Support Vector Machine Regression

Support Vector Machines Regression (SVMR) is a regression technique which has been recently introduced by V. Vapnik and his collaborators (Vapnik, 1995; Vapnik, Golowich and Smola, 1996). In SVMR the goodness of fit is measured not by the usual quadratic loss function (the mean square error), but by a different loss function called Vapnik"s $epsilon$- insensitive loss function, which is similar to the "robust" loss functions introduced by Huber (Huber, 1981). The quadratic loss function is well justified under the assumption of Gaussian additive noise. However, the noise model underlying the choice of Vapnik's loss function is less clear. In this paper the use of Vapnik's loss function is shown to be equivalent to a model of additive and Gaussian noise, where the variance and mean of the Gaussian are random variables. The probability distributions for the variance and mean will be stated explicitly. While this work is presented in the framework of SVMR, it can be extended to justify non-quadratic loss functions in any Maximum Likelihood or Maximum A Posteriori approach. It applies not only to Vapnik's loss function, but to a much broader class of loss functions.

Proactive Detection and Recovery of Lost Mobile Phones

This paper describes the successful implementation of a prototype software application that independently and proactively detects whether a mobile phone is lost or misused. When the mobile phone is detected as being lost or misused, the application takes steps to mitigate the impact of loss and to gather evidence. The goal is to aid in the recovery of the mobile phone. The prototype works regardless of the cellular infrastructure the mobile phone is operating in and makes minimum demands on the owner of the mobile phone. The prototype was developed on Nokia 6600 mobile phones that run Symbian Operating System 7.0s. Development was done using Nokia���s Series 60 Developer���s Platform 2.0.

El sistema multifondos de pensiones colombiano bajo las nuevas teor��as del comportamiento financiero

En Colombia, despu��s de casi dos d��cadas de la creaci��n del r��gimen de cuentas privadas, se implement�� una reforma donde se pasa de un sistema con un unico fondo a uno multifondos. Este tipo de reformas se vienen implementando en diferentes paises europeos y de Latino America. A la luz de las teor��as cl��sicas dicha reforma trae mejoras en el bienestar de los individuos; sin embargo, la literatura sobre las nuevas teor��as del comportamiento sugiere que los individuos no siempre toman decisiones que est��n de acuerdo con los supuestos de las teor��as cl��sicas. Este trabajo estudia esta reforma en Colombia bajo algunas de las teor��as del comportamiento financiero. Se encuentra que a��n cuando el afiliado se quede en la opci��n default , o act��e con aversi��n a la p��rdida, va a obtener valores en sus cuentas privadas mayores a las que obtendr��a con un sistema de un ��nico fondo.

El sistema multifondos de pensiones colombiano bajo las nuevas teor��as del comportamiento financiero

En Colombia, despu��s de casi dos d��cadas de la creaci��n del r��gimen de cuentas privadas, se implement�� una reforma donde se pasa de un sistema con un ��nico fondo a uno multifondos. Este tipo de reformas se vienen implementando en diferentes pa��ses europeos y de Latino Am��rica. A la luz de las teor��as cl��sicas dicha reforma trae mejoras en el bienestar de los individuos; sin embargo, la literatura sobre las nuevas teor��as del comportamiento sugiere que los individuos no siempre toman decisiones que est��n de acuerdo con los supuestos de las teor��as cl��sicas. Este trabajo estudia esta reforma en Colombia bajo algunas de las teor��as del comportamiento financiero. Se encuentra que a��n cuando el afiliado se quede en la opci��n default , o act��e con aversi��n a la p��rdida, va a obtener valores en sus cuentas privadas mayores a las que obtendr��a con un sistema de un ��nico fondo.

Brief neuropsychological assessment of adults post-stroke in the left hemisphere

The neuropsychological assessment investigates cognitive deficits to improve the diagnosis, the prognosis and the rehabilitation of patients. In Brazil, stroke is a major cause of hospitalization and the leading cause of mortality and disability. The stroke in the left hemisphere (LH) is associated with different degrees of loss of language and other cognitive impairments, for example, in the memory. We compared the performance in brief neuropsychological tasks of the left hemisphere poststroke patients, without moderate or severe aphasia, with healthy controls. A list of 135 patients was selected based on inclusion criteria. The study included 15 patients with left stroke, paired by sex, age and education to 30 neurologically healthy adults. The data resulting from application of the Neupsilin Brief Neuropsychological Assessment Instrument were analyzed with the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U. Adults with LH stroke showed a significant reduction in performance when compared to healthy controls on language, working memory and ideomotor praxis, results also found in other studies of patients with left hemisphere stroke

Interrater reliability of Alberta Infant Motor Scale in term and preterm born infants between 10 to 16 months age from Talca province - Chile

Purpose: To examine the ���interrater reliability��� of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) in term and preterm born infants between 10 to 16 months age from Talca province, Maule Region - Chile. Subjects: 115 infants between 10 to 16 months age were incorporated to the study; 95 term born infants were attended in the local Health Centre in Talca City, and 20 preterm infants belonged to the Premature Infants Follow-Up Programme of Talca Regional Hospital. Methods: The motor behaviour of each infant was recorded and later it was assessed by two trained assessors using AIMS. It was obtained the total AIMS��� score and also from prone, supine, seated, and stand subscales. For ���interrater reliability��� analysis it was used the Intraclass Coefficient of Correlation (ICC), the Standard Error of Measurement (SEM) and 95% limits of agreement. Results: The obtained ICC for the total scores AIMS were major than 0.94 (p<0.0002) for term and preterm born infants. The SEM of total scores was less than 3.1 points, higher than what was found in other similar studies. The 95% limits of agreement were +5.3 to -4.1 points and +7.7 to ��� 3.9 points in term and preterm born, respectively, revealing ���interrater agreement���. Conclusion: The AIMS showed adequate ���interrater reliable��� levels when was applied in Chilean term and preterm born from 10 to 16 month���s age.

Beyond the mincer equation: the internal rate of return to higher education in Colombia

In order to present an estimation of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia we take advantage of the methodological approach provided by Heckman, Lochner and Todd (2005). Trying to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to investments in education we develop a more structured approach of estimation, which controls for selection bias, includes more accurate measures of labor income and the role of education costs and income taxes. Our results implied a lower rate of return than the ones found in the Colombian literature and show that the Internal Rate of Return for higher education in Colombia lies somewhere between 0.074 and 0.128. The results vary according to the year analyzed and individual���s gender. This last result reinforces considerations regarding gender discrimination in the Colombian labor market.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

The effect of flow field & geometry on the dynamic contact angle

A number of recent experiments suggest that, at a given wetting speed, the dynamic contact angle formed by an advancing liquid-gas interface with a solid substrate depends on the flow field and geometry near the moving contact line. In the present work, this effect is investigated in the framework of an earlier developed theory that was based on the fact that dynamic wetting is, by its very name, a process of formation of a new liquid-solid interface (newly ���wetted��� solid surface) and hence should be considered not as a singular problem but as a particular case from a general class of flows with forming or/and disappearing interfaces. The results demonstrate that, in the flow configuration of curtain coating, where a liquid sheet (���curtain���) impinges onto a moving solid substrate, the actual dynamic contact angle indeed depends not only on the wetting speed and material constants of the contacting media, as in the so-called slip models, but also on the inlet velocity of the curtain, its height, and the angle between the falling curtain and the solid surface. In other words, for the same wetting speed the dynamic contact angle can be varied by manipulating the flow field and geometry near the moving contact line. The obtained results have important experimental implications: given that the dynamic contact angle is determined by the values of the surface tensions at the contact line and hence depends on the distributions of the surface parameters along the interfaces, which can be influenced by the flow field, one can use the overall flow conditions and the contact angle as a macroscopic multiparametric signal-response pair that probes the dynamics of the liquid-solid interface. This approach would allow one to investigate experimentally such properties of the interface as, for example, its equation of state and the rheological properties involved in the interface���s response to an external torque, and would help to measure its parameters, such as the coefficient of sliding friction, the surface-tension relaxation time, and so on.

New insights on growth mechanisms of protein clusters at surfaces: an AFM and simulation study

Despite its relevance to a wide range of technological and fundamental areas, a quantitative understanding of protein surface clustering dynamics is often lacking. In inorganic crystal growth, surface clustering of adatoms is well described by diffusion-aggregation models. In such models, the statistical properties of the aggregate arrays often reveal the molecular scale aggregation processes. We investigate the potential of these theories to reveal hitherto hidden facets of protein clustering by carrying out concomitant observations of lysozyme adsorption onto mica surfaces, using atomic force microscopy. and Monte Carlo simulations of cluster nucleation and growth. We find that lysozyme clusters diffuse across the substrate at a rate that varies inversely with size. This result suggests which molecular scale mechanisms are responsible for the mobility of the proteins on the substrate. In addition the surface diffusion coefficient of the monomer can also be extracted from the comparison between experiments and simulations. While concentrating on a model system of lysozyme-on-mica, this 'proof of concept' study successfully demonstrates the potential of our approach to understand and influence more biomedically applicable protein-substrate couples.

On the energetics of stratified turbulent mixing, irreversible thermodynamics, Boussinesq models and the ocean heat engine controversy

In this paper, the available potential energy (APE) framework of Winters et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 289, 1995, p. 115) is extended to the fully compressible Navier��� Stokes equations, with the aims of clarifying (i) the nature of the energy conversions taking place in turbulent thermally stratified fluids; and (ii) the role of surface buoyancy fluxes in the Munk & Wunsch (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 45, 1998, p. 1977) constraint on the mechanical energy sources of stirring required to maintain diapycnal mixing in the oceans. The new framework reveals that the observed turbulent rate of increase in the background gravitational potential energy GPEr , commonly thought to occur at the expense of the diffusively dissipated APE, actually occurs at the expense of internal energy, as in the laminar case. The APE dissipated by molecular diffusion, on the other hand, is found to be converted into internal energy (IE), similar to the viscously dissipated kinetic energy KE. Turbulent stirring, therefore, does not introduce a new APE/GPEr mechanical-to-mechanical energy conversion, but simply enhances the existing IE/GPEr conversion rate, in addition to enhancing the viscous dissipation and the entropy production rates. This, in turn, implies that molecular diffusion contributes to the dissipation of the available mechanical energy ME =APE +KE, along with viscous dissipation. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the concepts of mixing efficiency ��mixing and flux Richardson number Rf , for which new physically based definitions are proposed and contrasted with previous definitions. The new framework allows for a more rigorous and general re-derivation from the first principles of Munk & Wunsch (1998, hereafter MW98)���s constraint, also valid for a non-Boussinesq ocean: G(KE) ��� 1 ��� �� Rf �� Rf Wr, forcing = 1 + (1 ��� �� )��mixing �� ��mixing Wr, forcing , where G(KE) is the work rate done by the mechanical forcing, Wr, forcing is the rate of loss of GPEr due to high-latitude cooling and �� is a nonlinearity parameter such that �� =1 for a linear equation of state (as considered by MW98), but �� <1 otherwise. The most important result is that G(APE), the work rate done by the surface buoyancy fluxes, must be numerically as large as Wr, forcing and, therefore, as important as the mechanical forcing in stirring and driving the oceans. As a consequence, the overall mixing efficiency of the oceans is likely to be larger than the value ��mixing =0.2 presently used, thereby possibly eliminating the apparent shortfall in mechanical stirring energy that results from using ��mixing =0.2 in the above formula.