Adopting a new religion: The case of Protestantism in 16th Century Germany

Using a rich dataset of territories and cities of the Holy Roman Empire in the16th century, this paper investigates the determinants of adoption and diffusion ofProtestantism as a state religion. A territory s distance to Wittenberg, the city whereMartin Luther taught, is a major determinant of adoption. This finding can be explainedthrough a theory of strategic neighbourhood interactions: in an uncertainlegal context, introducing the Reformation was a risky enterprise for territorial lords,and had higher prospects of success if powerful neighbouring states committed tothe new faith first. The model is tested in a panel dataset featuring the dates ofintroduction of the Reformation.

Married to intolerance: Attitudes towards intermarriage in Germany, 1900-2006

Marriage is amongst the biggest decisions in life. In general, there is a tendency towards assortative matching people marry others who are relatively similar to themselves. Intermarriage between different social, religious and ethnic groups in most societies is relatively rare (Blossfeld and Timm 2003). Where it occurs, it is associated with more rapid assimilation (Meng and Gregory 2005). The frequency of intermarriage can therefore serve as a useful indicator of tolerant attitudes towards a minority, and of the desire to integrate (Bisin, Topa, and Verdier 2004).In this paper, we analyze under which conditions intermarriage can be used as an indicator of tolerance, and whether such tolerant attitudes persisted in Germany during the last century. We combine information on individual-level attitudes from the German social survey (GESIS) with historical data on marriage patterns.

Bowling for fascism: Social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany, 1919-33

Social capital a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially "dark side" of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party's triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations veteran associations and non-military clubs, "bridging" and "bonding" associations positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany's first democracy.

Compensating wage differentials and voluntary job changes: Evidence from West Germany

Does the labor market place wage premia on jobs that involve physical strain,job, insecurity or bad regulation of hours? This paper derives bounds on themonetary returns to these job disamenities in the West German labor market.We show that in a market with dispersion in both job characteristics andwages, the average wage change of workers who switch jobs voluntarily and optfor consuming more (less) disamenities,provides an upper (lower) bound on themarket return to the disamenity. Using longitudinal information from workersin the German Socio Economic Panel, we estimate an upper bound of 5% and alower bound of 3.5% for the market return to work strain in a job.

Suomen pääministeri kannattaa puolueettoman leirin laajentamista (Welt haastattelee tri Urho Kekkosta)

Urho Kekkosen haast.

Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany

What determined the volatility of asset prices in Germany between thewars? This paper argues that the influence of political factors has beenoverstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty hadlittle or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility ofreturns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that islargely responsible for most of the variability in asset returns.

With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression

In May 1927, the German central bank intervenedindirectly to reduce lending to equity investors.The crash that followed ended the only stockmarket boom during Germany s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines thefactors that lead to the intervention as well asits consequences. We argue that genuine concernabout the exuberant level of the stock market,in addition to worries about an inflow offoreign funds, tipped the scales in favour ofintervention. The evidence strongly suggeststhat the German central bank under HjalmarSchacht was wrong to be concerned aboutstockprices-there was no bubble. Also, theReichsbank was mistaken in its belief thata fall in the market would reduce theimportance of short-term foreign borrowing,and help to ease conditions in the money market.The misguided intervention had important realeffects. Investment suffered, helping to tipGermany into depression.

Betting on Hitler: The value of political connections in Nazi Germany

This paper examines the value of connections between German industry andthe Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporarysources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns,we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies,had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers Party. Firmssupporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperformingunconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These resultsare not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimatorsand definitions of affiliation.

Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slump

Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite thespeed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear ofinflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity marketsat certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policyoptions were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning'spolicies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectationsframework, we find strong evidence from the bondmarket to suggest fearof inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants werebetting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the contextof reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcomethe crisis.

Correlates of frailty, prediction of functional decline and preventative approaches - selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (lc65+) study (Switzerland) (Lausanne) and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (Lucas) (Germany)

Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.

El Comportament humà en situacions de crisi: resultats del projecte de recerca europeo BESECU

Les aportacions que es presenten en aquest llibre mostren els resultats de la investigació sobre el comportament humà en situacions d’emergència que s’ha dut a terme en el marc del projecte de recerca europeu BeSeCu. El projecte Be- SeCu —acrònim de Behaviour, Security and Culture (Comportament, Seguretat i Cultura)— forma part de la línia d’investigació i coneixement en matèria de seguretat del Setè Programa Marc de la Unió Europea. Concretament, el projecte es centra en una de les necessitats bàsiques establertes per la política europea en matèria de seguretat, com és la de conèixer en profunditat la realitat de les emergències a través de les persones que les han patit o dels professionals que hi treballen diàriament. Per assolir aquest objectiu, el projecte ha investigat les diferències i similituds del comportament humà en diferents situacions d’emergència i en diversos països europeus per tal de millorar els processos d’evacuació i protecció en aspectes com ara la comunicació, les indicacions i els procediments d’intervenció dels agents actuants. Les situacions d’emergències s’han investigat mitjançant dos actors clau, és a dir des de l’òptica de persones que han estat víctimes d’una situació d’emergència i des de l’òptica dels professionals dels serveis d’emergència. El grup principal d’estudi dels serveis d’emergència ha estat els cossos de bombers. La investigació del comportament humà, tant de víctimes com dels serveis d’emergència (cossos de bombers), s’ha centrat en cinc tipus diferents d’emergències: incendis d’habitatge, incendis en edificis públics, atemptats terroristes, terratrèmols i inundacions. El projecte estava format per un consorci d’institucions en què participaven un grup multidisciplinari de psicòlegs, sociòlegs, criminòlegs, enginyers i professionals de les emergències que treballen en escoles de bombers i policies, serveis d’emergència, centres de recerca i investigació i universitats de set països europeus: • Alemanya: Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universität Greifswald, Department of Health and Prevention, Institute of Psychology (coordinació del projecte); • Alemanya: Hamburg Fire and Emergency Service Academy; • Espanya: Institut de Seguretat Pública de Catalunya, Unitat de Recerca de l’Escola de Policia i de l’Escola de Bombers; • Anglaterra: University of Greenwich, Fire Safety Engineering Group; • Itàlia: Università di Bologna, Gruppo di Ricerca in Psicologia dell’Emergenza; • República Txeca: Prague Psychiatric Centre; • Suècia: Man-Technology-Organisation; • Turquia: Association of Emergency Ambulance Physicians.