Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Inhibition of the cardiac Na+ channel Nav1.5 by carbon monoxide

Sub-lethal carbon monoxide (CO) exposure is frequently associated with myocardial arrhythmias and our recent studies have demonstrated that these may be attributable to modulation of cardiac Na+ channels, causing an increase in the late current and an inhibition of the peak current. Using a recombinant expression system, we demonstrate that CO inhibits peak human Nav1.5 current amplitude without activation of the late Na+ current observed in native tissue. Inhibition was associated with a hyperpolarizing shift in the steady-state inactivation properties of the channels and was unaffected by modification of channel gating induced by anemone toxin (rATX-II). Systematic pharmacological assessment indicated that no recognised CO-sensitive intracellular signalling pathways appeared to mediate CO inhibition of Nav1.5. Inhibition was, however, markedly suppressed by inhibition of nitric oxide (NO) formation, but NO donors did not mimic or occlude channel inhibition by CO, indicating that NO alone did not account for the actions of CO. Exposure of cells to dithiothreitol immediately before CO exposure also dramatically reduced the magnitude of current inhibition. Similarly, L-cysteine and N-ethylmaleimide significantly attenuated the inhibition caused by CO. In the presence of DTT and the NO inhibitor L-NAME, the ability of CO to inhibit Nav1.5 was almost fully prevented. Our data indicate that inhibition of peak Na+ current (which can lead to Brugada-syndrome like arrhythmias) occurs via a mechanism distinct from induction of the late current, requires NO formation and is dependent on channel redox state.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Cardiac protein kinases: the cardiomyocyte kinome and differential kinase expression in human failing hearts

Aims. Protein kinases are potential therapeutic targets for heart failure, but most studies of cardiac protein kinases derive from other systems, an approach that fails to account for specific kinases expressed in the heart and the contractile cardiomyocytes. We aimed to define the cardiomyocyte kinome (i.e. the protein kinases expressed in cardiomyocytes) and identify kinases with altered expression in human failing hearts. Methods and Results. Expression profiling (Affymetrix microarrays) detected >400 protein kinase mRNAs in rat neonatal ventricular myocytes (NVMs) and/or adult ventricular myocytes (AVMs), 32 and 93 of which were significantly upregulated or downregulated (>2-fold), respectively, in AVMs. Data for AGC family members were validated by qPCR. Proteomics analysis identified >180 cardiomyocyte protein kinases, with high relative expression of mitogen-activated protein kinase cascades and other known cardiomyocyte kinases (e.g. CAMKs, cAMP-dependent protein kinase). Other kinases are poorly-investigated (e.g. Slk, Stk24, Oxsr1). Expression of Akt1/2/3, BRaf, ERK1/2, Map2k1, Map3k8, Map4k4, MST1/3, p38-MAPK, PKCδ, Pkn2, Ripk1/2, Tnni3k and Zak was confirmed by immunoblotting. Relative to total protein, Map3k8 and Tnni3k were upregulated in AVMs vs NVMs. Microarray data for human hearts demonstrated variation in kinome expression that may influence responses to kinase inhibitor therapies. Furthermore, some kinases were upregulated (e.g. NRK, JAK2, STK38L) or downregulated (e.g. MAP2K1, IRAK1, STK40) in human failing hearts. Conclusions. This characterization of the spectrum of kinases expressed in cardiomyocytes and the heart (cardiomyocyte and cardiac kinomes) identified novel kinases, some of which are differentially expressed in failing human hearts and could serve as potential therapeutic targets.

Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Endothelin-1 and fibroblast growth factors stimulate the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade in cardiac myocytes. The potential role of the cascade in the integration of two signaling pathways leading to myocyte hypertrophy.

Maximally effective concentrations of endothelin-1 (ET-1), acidic FGF (aFGF), or 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) activated mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by 3-4-fold in crude extracts of myocytes cultured from neonatal rat heart ventricles. Maximal activation was achieved after 5 min. Thereafter, MAPK activity stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF declined to control values within 1-2 h, whereas activation by TPA was more sustained. Two peaks of MAPK activity (a 42- and a 44-kDa MAPK) were resolved in cells exposed to ET-1 or aFGF by fast protein liquid chromatography on a Mono Q column. One major and one minor peak of MAPK kinase (MAPKK) was stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF. Cardiac myocytes expressed protein kinase C (PKC)-alpha, -delta, -epsilon and -zeta as shown immunoblotting. Exposure to 1 microM TPA for 24 h down-regulated PKC-alpha, -delta, and -epsilon, but not PKC-zeta. This maneuver wholly abolished the activation of MAPK on re-exposure to TPA but did not affect the response to aFGF. The effect of ET-1 was partially down-regulated. ET-1 stimulated phospho[3H]inositide hydrolysis 18-fold, whereas aFGF stimulated by only 30%. Agonists which initially utilize dissimilar signaling pathways may therefore converge at the level of MAPKK/MAPK and this may be relevant to the hypertrophic response of the heart.

Expression of protein kinase C isoforms during cardiac ventricular development.

The expression of protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms (PKC-alpha, PKC-beta 1, PKC-delta, PKC-epsilon, and PKC-zeta) was studied by immunoblotting in whole ventricles of rat hearts during postnatal development (1-26 days) and in the adult. PKC-alpha, PKC-beta 1, PKC-delta, PKC-epsilon, and PKC-zeta were detected in ventricles of 1-day-old rats, although PKC-alpha and PKC-beta 1 were only barely detectable. All isoforms were rapidly downregulated during development, with abundances relative to total protein declining in the adult to < 25% of 1-day-old values. PKC-beta 1 was not detectable in adult ventricles. The specific activity of PKC was also downregulated. The rat ventricular myocyte becomes amitotic soon after birth but continues to grow, increasing its protein content 40- to 50-fold between the neonate and the 300-g adult. An important question is thus whether the amount of PKC per myocyte is downregulated. With the use of isolated cells, immunoblotting showed that the contents per myocyte of PKC-alpha and PKC-epsilon increased approximately 10-fold between the neonatal and adult stages. In rat ventricles, the rank of association with the particulate fraction was PKC-delta > PKC-epsilon > PKC-zeta. Association of these isoforms with the particulate fraction was less in the adult than in the neonate. In primary cultures of ventricular myocytes prepared from neonatal rat hearts, 1 microM 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) elicited translocation of PKC-alpha, PKC-delta, and PKC-epsilon from the soluble to the particulate fraction in < 1 min, after which time no further translocation was observed. Prolonged exposure (16 h) of myocytes to 1 microM TPA caused essentially complete downregulation of these isoforms, although downregulation of PKC-epsilon was slower than for PKC-delta. In contrast, PKC-zeta was neither translocated nor downregulated by 1 microM TPA. Immunoblotting of human ventricular samples also revealed downregulation of PKC relative to total protein during fetal/postnatal development.

Adrenergic receptor stimulation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade and cardiac hypertrophy.

Phenylephrine and noradrenaline (alpha-adrenergic agonism) or isoprenaline (beta-adrenergic agonism) stimulated protein synthesis rates, increased the activity of the atrial natriuretic factor gene promoter and activated mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK). The EC50 for MAPK activation by noradrenaline was 2-4 microM and that for isoprenaline was 0.2-0.3 microM. Maximal activation of MAPK by isoprenaline was inhibited by the beta-adrenergic antagonist, propranolol, whereas the activation by noradrenaline was inhibited by the alpha1-adrenergic antagonist, prazosin. FPLC on a Mono-Q column separated two peaks of MAPK (p42MAPK and p44MAPK) and two peaks of MAPK-activating activity (MEK) activated by isoprenaline or noradrenaline. Prolonged phorbol ester exposure partially down-regulated the activation of MAPK by noradrenaline but not by isoprenaline. This implies a role for protein kinase C in MAPK activation by noradrenaline but not isoprenaline. A role for cyclic AMP in activation of the MAPK pathway was eliminated when other agonists that elevate cyclic AMP in the cardiac myocyte did not activate MAPK. In contrast, MAPK was activated by exposure to ionomycin, Bay K8644 or thapsigargin that elevate intracellular Ca2+. Furthermore, depletion of extracellular Ca2+ concentrations with bis-(o-aminophenoxy)ethane-NNN'N'-tetra-acetic acid (BAPTA) or blocking of the L-type Ca2+ channel with nifepidine or verapamil inhibited the response to isoprenaline without inhibiting the responses to noradrenaline. We conclude that alpha- and beta-adrenergic agonists can activate the MEK/MAPK pathway in the heart by different signalling pathways. Elevation of intracellular Ca2+ rather than cyclic AMP appears important in the activation of MAPK by isoprenaline in the cardiac myocyte.

Stimulation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway in neonatal rat ventricular myocytes by the G protein-coupled receptor agonists, endothelin-1 and phenylephrine: a role in cardiac myocyte hypertrophy?

We examined the activation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38-MAPK) pathway by the G protein-coupled receptor agonists, endothelin-1 and phenylephrine in primary cultures of cardiac myocytes from neonatal rat hearts. Both agonists increased the phosphorylation (activation) of p38-MAPK by approximately 12-fold. A p38-MAPK substrate, MAPK-activated protein kinase 2 (MAPKAPK2), was activated approximately fourfold and 10 microM SB203580, a p38-MAPK inhibitor, abolished this activation. Phosphorylation of the MAPKAPK2 substrate, heat shock protein 25/27, was also increased. Using selective inhibitors, activation of the p38-MAPK pathway by endothelin-1 was shown to involve protein kinase C but not Gi/Go nor the extracellularly responsive kinase (ERK) pathway. SB203580 failed to inhibit the morphological changes associated with cardiac myocyte hypertrophy induced by endothelin-1 or phenylephrine between 4 and 24 h. However, it decreased the myofibrillar organization and cell profile at 48 h. In contrast, inhibition of the ERK cascade with PD98059 prevented the increase in myofibrillar organization but not cell profile. These data are not consistent with a role for the p38-MAPK pathway in the immediate induction of the morphological changes of hypertrophy but suggest that it may be necessary over a longer period to maintain the response.

The p38-MAPK inhibitor, SB203580, inhibits cardiac stress-activated protein kinases/c-Jun N-terminal kinases (SAPKs/JNKs).

SB203580 is a recognised inhibitor of p38-MAPKs. Here, we investigated the effects of SB203580 on cardiac SAPKs/JNKs. The IC50 for inhibition of p38-MAPK stimulation of MAPKAPK2 was approximately 0.07 microM, whereas that for total SAPK/JNK activity was 3-10 microM. SB203580 did not inhibit immunoprecipitated JNK1 isoforms. Three peaks of SAPK/JNK activity were separated by anion exchange chromatography, eluting in the isocratic wash (44 kDa), and at 0.08 M (46 and 52 kDa) and 0.15 M NaCl (54 kDa). SB203580 (10 microM) completely inhibited the 0.15 M NaCl activity and partially inhibited the 0.08 M NaCl activity. Since JNK1 antibodies immunoprecipitate the 46 kDa activity, this indicates that SB203580 selectively inhibits 52 and 54 kDa SAPKs/JNKs.

Cellular mechanisms of cardiac hypertrophy.

Hypertrophy of myocytes in the heart ventricles is an important adaptation that in vivo occurs in response to a requirement for increased contractile power. It involves changes at the level of gene transcription, stimulation of the rate of protein synthesis (translation), and increased assembly of myofibrils. There is mounting evidence of the involvement of reversible protein phosphorylation and dephosphorylation in most of these processes. Protein kinase C, mitogen-activated protein kinases, and transcription factors have been implicated in the modulation of the transcriptional changes. Activation of translation may also be mediated through protein phosphorylation/dephosphorylation, although this has not been clearly established in the heart. Here we provide a critical overview of the signalling pathways involved in the hypertrophic response and provide a scheme to account for many of its features.

Regulation of bcl-2 family proteins during development and in response to oxidative stress in cardiac myocytes: association with changes in mitochondrial membrane potential.

Cardiac myocyte apoptosis is potentially important in many cardiac disorders. In other cells, Bcl-2 family proteins and mitochondrial dysfunction are probably key regulators of the apoptotic response. In the present study, we characterized the regulation of antiapoptotic (Bcl-2, Bcl-xL) and proapoptotic (Bad, Bax) Bcl-2 family proteins in the rat heart during development and in oxidative stress-induced apoptosis. Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL were expressed at high levels in the neonate, and their expression was sustained during development. In contrast, although Bad and Bax were present at high levels in neonatal hearts, they were barely detectable in adult hearts. We confirmed that H(2)O(2) induced cardiac myocyte cell death, stimulating poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase proteolysis (from 2 hours), caspase-3 proteolysis (from 2 hours), and DNA fragmentation (from 8 hours). In unstimulated neonatal cardiac myocytes, Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL were associated with the mitochondria, but Bad and Bax were predominantly present in a crude cytosolic fraction. Exposure of myocytes to H(2)O(2) stimulated rapid translocation of Bad (<5 minutes) to the mitochondria. This was followed by the subsequent degradation of Bad and Bcl-2 (from approximately 30 minutes). The levels of the mitochondrial membrane marker cytochrome oxidase remained unchanged. H(2)O(2) also induced translocation of cytochrome c from the mitochondria to the cytosol within 15 to 30 minutes, which was indicative of mitochondrial dysfunction. Myocytes exposed to H(2)O(2) showed an early loss of mitochondrial membrane potential (assessed by fluorescence-activated cell sorter analysis) from 15 to 30 minutes, which was partially restored by approximately 1 hour. However, a subsequent irreversible loss of mitochondrial membrane potential occurred that correlated with cell death. These data suggest that the regulation of Bcl-2 and mitochondrial function are important factors in oxidative stress-induced cardiac myocyte apoptosis.