Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Molecular and biological diversity of HIV-1 in Brazil

To determine the genomic polymorphism and biological properties present in HIV-1 Brazilian isolates, were analyzed five viral isolates obtained from patients residing in Rio de Janeiro (P1 and P5), São Paulo (P3) and Bahia (P2 and P4) states. For each viral isolate in vitro characteristics such as replication rate, syncytium-inducing capacity and cell death were observed in lymphoblastoid (H9, CEM and peripheral blood mononuclear cells) as well as monocytoid (U937) cells. In addition, the evaluation of the restriction fragment lenght polymorphism of these isolates was also performed using a panel of endonucleases such as Hind III, Bgl II, Sac I, Pst I, Kpn I and Eco RI. One of the isolates (P1), showed the highest phenotypic and genotypic divergence, when compared to others. The results found suggest a HIV heterogeneity in Brazil similar to that already described in other regions of the world.

Dispersal of phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a colombian focus of leishmania (Viannia) brasiliensis

Dispersal of five species of phlebotomine sand flies was studied in a coffee plantation near Arboledas, Colombia by mark-release-recapture studies using fluorescent powders. The estimated recapture rate for males of Lutzomyia shannoni marked and released during the day was 28.1% significantly higher than that for all other species (p < 0.05). Recapture rate of female Lu. shannoni was 9.5% and no females of the other four species were recovered. This suggests either that Lu. shannoni is a more sedentary species than the others, or that the large trees on wich these insects were captured and recaptured function as foci of lekking behaviour in males. The high recapture rates of females of this species may indicate that oviposition occurs in close proximity to the bases of these trees. Although most marked sand flies were recaptured within 200 m of their release point, a single female Lu. gomezi was recovered 960 m away 36 h after release. This suggests that the dispersal capacity of Lutzomyia species may be greater than has been though, an important consideration in future control programs directed against these insects in Leishmania-endemic areas.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Evolution of endurance during a multidisciplinary treatment of chronic low back pain and its influence of work capacity

Introduction: Low back pain is a common disorder touching up to 80% of the population, with redundancies of up to 70%. A small proportion would go on to develop chronic low back pain (LBP) with reduced work capacity and they would count for the majority of the costs. Up to day, a multi-disciplinary treatment program is one of the best approaches. In the program one of the mile-stones is restoration of function. The aim of this study was to follow patients, according to the endurance change after the program and its influence on workability during one year after inclusion in a such program. Method: Patients were following a multidisciplinary treatment for 3 weeks including physiotherapy, occupation measures combined with an educational program with behavioural and psychological interventions on an outpatient program. We studied the endurance with the help of the Bruce test, accomplished at the beginning and at the end of the program. On the other hand the patients filled out pain questionnaires and PACT score according their own impression on workability. Results: There were a clear relation between the increase in the cardiovascular endurance and the increased workability. Almost every patient presented an increase in the VO2 max, even though the workability did not follow. This increase were associated with a decrease in pain apprehension. Conclusion: A multidisciplinary treatment program, teaching the patients how to care with their pain and to accept it even if it persist is successful in lowering the global pain. If the program allows the patients to strengthen the endurance, the workability will increase in parallel. In this way the patients were able to reduce the consummation of medicaments and to increase the work capacity.

Effect of magnesium sulphate and L-tryptophan and genotype on the feed intake, behaviour and meat quality of pigs

Sixty-nine entire male pigs with different halothane genotype (homozygous halothane positive – nn –, n=36; and homozygous halothane negative – NN-, n=33) were fed with a supplementation of magnesium sulphate (Mg) and/or L-tryptophan (Trp) in the diet for 5 days before slaughter. Animals were housed individually and were submitted to stressful ante mortem conditions (mixed in the lorry according to treatments and transported 1 hour on rough roads). Individual feed intake was recorded during the 5-d treatment. At the abattoir, pig behaviour was assessed in the raceway to the stunning system and during the stunning period by exposure to CO2. Muscle pH, colour, water holding capacity, texture and cathepsin activities were determined to assess meat quality. The number of pigs with an individual feed intake lower than 2 kg/d was significantly different among diets (P&0.05; Control: 8.7 %; Mg&Trp: 43.5 %; Trp: 17.4 %) and they were considered to have inadequate supplement intake. During the ante mortem period, 15.2 % of pigs included in the experiment died, and this percentage decreased to 8.7 % in those pigs with a feed intake & 2kg/day, all of them from the stress-sensitive pigs (nn). In general, no differences were observed in the behaviour of pigs along the corridor leading to the stunning system and inside the CO2 stunning system. During the stunning procedure, Trp diet showed shorter periods of muscular excitation than control and Mg&Trp diets. The combination of a stressful ante mortem treatment and Mg&Trp supplementation led to carcasses with high incidence of severe skin lesions. Different meat quality results were found when considering all pigs or considering only those with adequate supplement intake. In this later case, Trp increased pH45 (6.15) vs Control diet (5.96) in the Longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle (P&0.05) and pH at 24h (Trp: 5.59 vs C: 5.47) led to a higher incidence of dark, firm and exudative (DFD) traits in SM muscle (P&0.05). Genotype affected negatively all the meat quality traits. Seventy-five percent of LT and 60.0 % of the SM muscles from nn pigs were classified as pale, soft and exudative (PSE), while none of the NN pigs showed these traits (P&0.0001). No significant differences were found between genotypes on the incidence of DFD meat. Due to the negative effects observed in the Mg&Trp group in feed intake and carcass quality, the utilization of a mixture of magnesium sulphate and tryptophan is not recommended.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

Control of the adaptive response of the heart to stress via the Notch1 receptor pathway.

In the damaged heart, cardiac adaptation relies primarily on cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. The recent discovery of cardiac stem cells in the postnatal heart, however, suggests that these cells could participate in the response to stress via their capacity to regenerate cardiac tissues. Using models of cardiac hypertrophy and failure, we demonstrate that components of the Notch pathway are up-regulated in the hypertrophic heart. The Notch pathway is an evolutionarily conserved cell-to-cell communication system, which is crucial in many developmental processes. Notch also plays key roles in the regenerative capacity of self-renewing organs. In the heart, Notch1 signaling takes place in cardiomyocytes and in mesenchymal cardiac precursors and is activated secondary to stimulated Jagged1 expression on the surface of cardiomyocytes. Using mice lacking Notch1 expression specifically in the heart, we show that the Notch1 pathway controls pathophysiological cardiac remodeling. In the absence of Notch1, cardiac hypertrophy is exacerbated, fibrosis develops, function is altered, and the mortality rate increases. Therefore, in cardiomyocytes, Notch controls maturation, limits the extent of the hypertrophic response, and may thereby contribute to cell survival. In cardiac precursors, Notch prevents cardiogenic differentiation, favors proliferation, and may facilitate the expansion of a transient amplifying cell compartment.

Effects of gamma irradiation on the reproductive capacity and the longevity of Panstrongylus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

The effects of radiation on the reproductive capacity and the longevity of Panstrongylus magistus were studied. An indirect correlation between longevity and radiation doses was observed. Males were more affected than females. Longevity of females submitted to 10 Gy was not different when compared to controls. Some of the irradiated males copulated and in these cases semen was transferred to females, but only few eggs were laid. Fertility was seriously affected in all irradiated groups, decreasing with increasing intensity of dose. The dose of 80 Gy induced sterility in males and females. Gelatinous spermatophores that were expelled by females irradiated with 20 and 40 Gy, may be a consequence of irradiation that induced modification in the bursa copulatrix pH.

The effect of subminimal inhibitory concentrations of penicillin on growth rate and haemolysin activity of group G Streptococcus

The influence of the subminimal inhibitory concentrations (1/3 and 1/4 of the MIC) of penicillin on growth rate and on haemolysin production of a strain of group G Streptococcus was studied. It was shown that 1/3 of the MIC almost completely inhibited the bacterial growth, but it was not able to inhibit haemolysin activity in the culture supernate. The generation time of bacteria grown in 1/4 of the MIC was approximately twice longer than that of the control culture. In all cultures, the haemolysin, after being produced (or liberated), reached a peak and decreased to low levels, which could suggest that group G Streptococcus produces some end products of metabolism that are able to inhibit haemolysin activity.

The role of Pten in the Hematopoietic System and the Hematopoietic Stem Cells

Résumé Identification, localisation et activation des cellules souches hématopoiétiques dormantes in vivo Les cellules souches somatiques sont présentes dans la majorité des tissus régénératifs comme la peau, l'épithélium intestinal et le système hématopoiétique. A partir d'une seule cellule, elles ont les capacités de produire d'autres cellules souches du même type (auto-renouvellement) et d'engendrer un ensemble défini de cellules progénitrices différenciées qui vont maintenir ou réparer leur tissu hôte. Les cellules souches adultes les mieux caractérisées sont les cellules souches hématopoiétiques (HSC), localisées dans la moelle osseuse. Un des buts de mon travail de doctorat était de caractériser plus en profondeur la localisation des HSCs endogènes in vivo. Pour ce faire, la technique "label retaining assay", se basant sur la division peu fréquentes et sur la dormance des cellules souches, a été utilisée. Après un marquage des souris avec du BrdU (analogue à l'ADN) suivi d'une longue période sans BrdU, les cellules ayant incorporés le marquage ("label retaining cells" LCRs) ont pu être identifiées dans la moelle osseuse. Ces cellules LCRs étaient enrichies 300 fois en cellules de phenotype HSC et, en utilisant de la cytofluorométrie, il a pu être montré qu'environ 15% de toutes les HSCs d'une souris restent dormantes durant plusieures semaines. Ces HSCs dormantes à long terme ne sont probablement pas impliquées dans la maintenance de 'hématopoièse. Par contre, on assiste à l'activation rapide de ces HSCs dormantes lors d'une blessure, comme une ablation myéloide. Elles re-entrent alors en cycle cellulaire et sont essentielles pour une génération rapide des cellules progénitrices et matures qui vont remplacer les cellules perdues. De plus, la détection des LCRs, combinée avec l'utilisation du marqueur de HSCs c-kit, peut être utilisée pour la localisation des HSCs dormantes présentes dans la paroi endostéale de la cavité osseuse. De manière surprenante, les LCRs c-kit+ ont surtout étés trouvées isolées en cellule unique, suggérant que le micro-environement spécifique entourant et maintenant les HSCs, appelé niche, pourrait être très réduit et abriter une seule HSC par niche. Rôles complexes du gène supresseur de tumeur Pten dans le système hématopoiétique La phosphatase PTEN disparaît dans certains cancers héréditaires ou sporadiques humains, comme les gliomes, les cancers de l'utérus ou du sein. Pten inhibe la voie de signalisation de la PI3-kinase et joue un rôle clé dans l'apoptose, la croissance, la prolifération et la migration cellulaire. Notre but était d'étudier le rôle de Pten dans les HSC normale et durant la formation de leucémies. Pour ce faire, nous avons généré un modèle murin dans lequel le gène Pten peut être supprimé dans les cellules hématopoiétiques, incluant les HSCs. Ceci a été possible en croissant l'allèle conditionnelle ptenflox soit avec le transgène MxCre inductible par l'interféron α soit avec le transgène Scl-CreERt inductible par le tamoxifen. Ceci permet la conversion de l'allèle ptenflox en l'allèle nul PtenΔ dans les HSCs et les autres types cellulaires hématopoiétiques. Les souris mutantes Pten développent une splénomégalie massive causée par une expansion dramatiques de toutes les cellules myéloides. De manière interessante, alors que le nombre de HSCs dans la moelle osseuse diminue progressivement, le nombre des HSCs dans la rate augmente de manière proportionnelle. Etrangement, les analyses de cycle cellulaire ont montrés que Pten n'avait que peu ou pas d'effet sur la dormance des HSCs ou sur leur autorenouvellement. En revanche, une augmentation massive du niveau de la cytokine de mobilisation G-CSF a été détéctée dans le serum sanguin, suggérant que la suppression de Pten stimulerait la mobilisation et la migration des HSC de la moelle osseuse vers la rate. Finallement, la transplantation de moelle osseuse délétée en Pten dans des souris immuno-déficientes montre que Pten fonctionnerait comme un suppresseur de tumeur dans le système hématopoiétique car son absence entraîne la formation rapide de leucémies lymphocytaires. Summary Identification, localization and activation of dormant hematopoietic stun cells in vivo Somatic stem cells are present in most self-renewing tissues including the skin, the intestinal epithelium and the hematopoietic system. On a single cell basis they have the capacity to produce more stem cells of the same phenotype (self-renewal) and to give rise to a defined set of mature differentiated progeny, responsible for the maintenance or repair of the host tissue. The best characterized adult stem cell is the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) located in the bone marrow. One goal of my thesis work was to further characterize the location of endogenous HSCs in vivo. To do this, a technique called "label retaining assay» was used which takes advantage of the fact that stem cells (including HSCs) divide very infrequently and can be dormant for months. After labeling mice with the DNA analogue BrdU followed by a long BrdU free "chase", BrdU "label retaining cells" (CRCs) could be identified in the bone marrow. These CRCs were 300-fold enriched for phenotypic HSCs and by using flow cytometry analysis it could be shown that about 15% of all HSCs in the mouse are dormant for many weeks. Our results suggest that these long-term dormant HSCs are unlikely to be involved in homeostatic maintenance. However they are rapidly activated and reenter the cell cycle in response to injury signals such as myeloid ablation. In addition, detection of LRCs in combination with the HSC marker c-Kit could be used to locate engrafted dormant HSCs close to the endosteal lining of the bone marrow cavities. Most surprisingly, c-Kit+LRCs were found predominantly as single cells suggesting that the specific stem cell maintaining microenvironment, called niche, has limited space and may house only single HSCs. Complex roles of the tumor suppressor gene Pten in the hematopoietic system. The phosphatase PTEN is lost in hereditary and sporadic forms of human cancers, including gliomas, endometrial and breast cancers. Pten inhibits the PI3-kina.se pathway and plays a key role in apoptosis, cell growth, proliferation and migration. Our aim was to study the role of Pten in normal HSCs and during leukemia formation. To do this, we generated a mouse model in which the Pten gene can be deleted in hematopoietic cells including HSCs. This was achieved by crossing the conditional ptenflox allele with either the interferona inducible MxCre or the tamoxifen inducible Scl-CreERT transgene. This allowed the conversion of the ptenflox allele into a pterr' null allele in HSCs and other hematopoietic cell types. As a result Pten mutant mice developed massive splenomegaly due to a dramatic expansion of all myeloid cells. Interestingly, while the number of bone marrow HSCs progressively decreased, the number of HSCs in the spleen increased to a similar extent. Unexpectedly, extensive cell cycle analysis showed that Pten had little or no effect on HSC dormancy or HSC self-renewal. Instead, dramatically increased levels of the mobilizing cytokine G-CSF were detected in the blood serum suggesting that loss-of Pten stimulates mobilization and migration of HSC from the BM to the spleen. Finally, transplantation of Pten deficient BM cells into immuno-compromised mice showed that Pten can function as a tumor suppressor in the hematopoietic system and that its absence leads to the rapid formation of T cell leukemia.