Jet characterization in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS): applications to climatology and transport studies

A method of classifying the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UTLS) jets has been developed that allows satellite and aircraft trace gas data and meteorological fields to be efficiently mapped in a jet coordinate view. A detailed characterization of multiple tropopauses accompanies the jet characterization. Jet climatologies show the well-known high altitude subtropical and lower altitude polar jets in the upper troposphere, as well as a pattern of concentric polar and subtropical jets in the Southern Hemisphere, and shifts of the primary jet to high latitudes associated with blocking ridges in Northern Hemisphere winter. The jet-coordinate view segregates air masses differently than the commonly-used equivalent latitude (EqL) coordinate throughout the lowermost stratosphere and in the upper troposphere. Mapping O3 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite and the Winter Storms aircraft datasets in jet coordinates thus emphasizes different aspects of the circulation compared to an EqL-coordinate framework: the jet coordinate reorders the data geometrically, thus highlighting the strong PV, tropopause height and trace gas gradients across the subtropical jet, whereas EqL is a dynamical coordinate that may blur these spatial relationships but provides information on irreversible transport. The jet coordinate view identifies the concentration of stratospheric ozone well below the tropopause in the region poleward of and below the jet core, as well as other transport features associated with the upper tropospheric jets. Using the jet information in EqL coordinates allows us to study trace gas distributions in regions of weak versus strong jets, and demonstrates weaker transport barriers in regions with less jet influence. MLS and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer trace gas fields for spring 2008 in jet coordinates show very strong, closely correlated, PV, tropopause height and trace gas gradients across the jet, and evidence of intrusions of stratospheric air below the tropopause below and poleward of the subtropical jet; these features are consistent between instruments and among multiple trace gases. Our characterization of the jets is facilitating studies that will improve our understanding of upper tropospheric trace gas evolution.

Measurements of NO, NOy, N2O, and O3 during SPURT: implications for transport and chemistry in the lowermost stratosphere

We present measurements of NO, NOy, O3, and N2O within the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) over Europe obtained during the SPURT project. The measurements cover all seasons between November 2001 and July 2003. They span a broad band of latitudes from 30° N to 75° N and a potential temperature range from 290 to 380 K. The measurements represent a comprehensive data set of these tracers and reveal atmospheric transport processes that influence tracer distributions in the LMS. Median mixing ratios of stratospheric tracers in equivalent latitude-potential temperature coordinates show a clear seasonal cycle related to the Brewer-Dobson circulation, with highest values in spring and lowest values in autumn. Vertical tracer profiles show strong gradients at the extratropical tropopause, suggesting that vertical (cross-isentropic) mixing is reduced above the tropopause. Pronounced meridional gradients in the tracer mixing ratios are found on potential temperature surfaces in the LMS. This suggests strongly reduced mixing along isentropes. Concurrent large gradients in static stability in the vertical direction, and of PV in the meridional direction, suggest the presence of a mixing barrier. Seasonal cycles were found in the correlation slopes ΔO3/ΔN2O and ΔNOy/ΔN2O well above the tropopause. Absolute slope values are smallest in spring indicating chemically aged stratospheric air originating from high altitudes and latitudes. Larger values were measured in summer and autumn suggesting that a substantial fraction of air takes a "short-cut" from the tropical tropopause region into the extratropical LMS. The seasonal change in the composition of the LMS has direct implications for the ozone chemistry in this region. Comparisons of measured NO with the critical NO value at which net ozone production changes from negative to positive, imply ozone production up to 20 K above the local tropopause in spring, up to 30 K in summer, and up to 40 K in autumn. Above these heights, and in winter, net ozone production is negative.

Seasonal cycles and variability of O3 and H2O in the UT/LMS during SPURT

Airborne high resolution in situ measurements of a large set of trace gases including ozone (O3) and total water (H2O) in the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere (UT/LMS) have been performed above Europe within the SPURT project. SPURT provides an extensive data coverage of the UT/LMS in each season within the time period between November 2001 and July 2003. In the LMS a distinct spring maximum and autumn minimum is observed in O3, whereas its annual cycle in the UT is shifted by 2–3 months later towards the end of the year. The more variable H2O measurements reveal a maximum during summer and a minimum during autumn/winter with no phase shift between the two atmospheric compartments. For a comprehensive insight into trace gas composition and variability in the UT/LMS several statistical methods are applied using chemical, thermal and dynamical vertical coordinates. In particular, 2-dimensional probability distribution functions serve as a tool to transform localised aircraft data to a more comprehensive view of the probed atmospheric region. It appears that both trace gases, O3 and H2O, reveal the most compact arrangement and are best correlated in the view of potential vorticity (PV) and distance to the local tropopause, indicating an advanced mixing state on these surfaces. Thus, strong gradients of PV seem to act as a transport barrier both in the vertical and the horizontal direction. The alignment of trace gas isopleths reflects the existence of a year-round extra-tropical tropopause transition layer. The SPURT measurements reveal that this layer is mainly affected by stratospheric air during winter/spring and by tropospheric air during autumn/summer. Normalised mixing entropy values for O3 and H2O in the LMS appear to be maximal during spring and summer, respectively, indicating highest variability of these trace gases during the respective seasons.

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt

The warm conveyor belt (WCB) of an extratropical cyclone generally splits into two branches. One branch (WCB1) turns anticyclonically into the downstream upper-level tropospheric ridge, while the second branch (WCB2) wraps cyclonically around the cyclone centre. Here, the WCB split in a typical North Atlantic cold-season cyclone is analysed using two numerical models: the Met Office Unified Model and the COSMO model. The WCB flow is defined using off-line trajectory analysis. The two models represent the WCB split consistently. The split occurs early in the evolution of the WCB with WCB1 experiencing maximum ascent at lower latitudes and with higher moisture content than WCB2. WCB1 ascends abruptly along the cold front where the resolved ascent rates are greatest and there is also line convection. In contrast, WCB2 remains at lower levels for longer before undergoing saturated large-scale ascent over the system's warm front. The greater moisture in WCB1 inflow results in greater net potential temperature change from latent heat release, which determines the final isentropic level of each branch. WCB1 also exhibits lower outflow potential vorticity values than WCB2. Complementary diagnostics in the two models are utilised to study the influence of individual diabatic processes on the WCB. Total diabatic heating rates along the WCB branches are comparable in the two models with microphysical processes in the large-scale cloud schemes being the major contributor to this heating. However, the different convective parameterisation schemes used by the models cause significantly different contributions to the total heating. These results have implications for studies on the influence of the WCB outflow in Rossby wave evolution and breaking. Key aspects are the net potential temperature change and the isentropic level of the outflow which together will influence the relative mass going into each WCB branch and the associated negative PV anomalies at the tropopause-level flow.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

Up-gradient eddy fluxes of potential vorticity near the subtropical jet

The role of eddy fluxes in the general circulation is often approached by treating eddies as (macro)turbulence. In this approach, the eddies act to diffuse certain quasiconservative quantities, such as potential vorticity (PV), along isentropic surfaces in the free atmosphere. The eddy fluxes are determined primarily by the eddy diffusivities and are necessarily down-gradient of the basic state PV field. Support for the (macro)turbulence approach stems from the fact that the eddy fluxes of PV in the free atmosphere are generally down-gradient in the long-term mean. Here we call attention to a pronounced and significant region of upgradient eddy PV fluxes on the poleward flank of the jet core in both hemispheres. The region of up-gradient (i.e., notionally “antidiffusive”) eddy PV fluxes is most pronounced during the winter and spring seasons and partially contradicts the turbulence approach described above. Analyses of the PV variance (potential enstrophy) budget suggest that the up-gradient PV fluxes represent local wave decay and are maintained by poleward fluxes of PV variance. Finite-amplitude effects thus represent leading order contributions to the PV variance budget, whereas dissipation is only of secondary importance locally. The appearance of up-gradient PV fluxes in the long-term mean is associated with the poleward shift of the jet—and thus the region of wave decay relative to wave growth—following wave-breaking events.

A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones

The structure of near-tropopause potential vorticity (PV) acts as a primary control on the evolution of extratropical cyclones. Diabatic processes such as the latent heating found in ascending moist warm conveyor belts modify PV. A dipole in diabatically-generated PV (hereafter diabatic PV) straddling the extratropical tropopause, with the positive pole above the negative pole, was diagnosed in a recently published analysis of a simulated extratropical cyclone. This PV dipole has the potential to significantly modify the propagation of Rossby waves and the growth of baroclinically-unstable waves. This previous analysis was based on a single case study simulated with 12-km horizontal grid spacing and parameterized convection. Here, the dipole is investigated in three additional cold-season extratropical cyclones simulated in both convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting model configurations. A diabatic PV dipole across the extratropical tropopause is diagnosed in all three cases. The amplitude of the dipole saturates approximately 36 hours from the time diabatic PV is accumulated. The node elevation of the dipole varies between 2-4 PVU in the three cases, and the amplitude of the system-averaged dipole varies between 0.2-0.4 PVU. The amplitude of the negative pole is similar in the convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting simulations. The positive pole, which is generated by long-wave radiative cooling, is weak in the convection-permitting simulations due to the small domain size which limits the accumulation of diabatic tendencies within the interior of the domain. The possible correspondence between the diabatic PV dipole and the extratropical tropopause inversion layer is discussed.

Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main ascending air masses within extratropical cyclones. They often exhibit strong condensation and precipitation, associated with ascent on large scales or embedded convection. Most of the air outflows into the upper troposphere as part of a ridge. Such ridges are an integral part of Rossby waves propagating along the tropopause and are identified with a negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and associated anticyclonic circulation. It has been argued that diabatic modification of PV in WCBs has an important influence on the extent of the ridge, propagation of Rossby waves and weather impacts downstream. Following the coherent ensemble of trajectories defining a WCB, PV is expected to increase with time while below the level of maximum latent heating and then decrease as trajectories ascend above the heating maximum. In models, it is found that the net change is approximately zero, so that the average PV of the WCB outflow is almost equal to the PV of its inflow. Here, the conditions necessary for this evolution are explored analytically using constraints arising from the conservation of circulation. It is argued that the net PV change is insensitive to the details of diabatic processes and the PV maximum midway along a WCB depends primarily on the net diabatic transport of mass from the inflow to the outflow layer. The main effect of diabatic processes within a WCB is to raise the isentropic level of the outflow, rather than to modify PV.

Simulations of a photovoltaic-thermal ground source heat pump system

A ground source heat pump assisted by an array of photovoltaic (PV)-thermal modules was studied in this work. Extracting heat from an array of PV modules should improve the performance of both the PV cells and the heat pump. A series of computer simulations compare the performance of a ground source heat pump with a short ground circuit, used to provide space heating and domestic hot water at a house in southern England. The results indicate that extracting heat from an array of PV-thermal modules would improve the performance of a ground source heat pump with an undersized ground loop. Nevertheless, open air thermal collectors could be more effective, especially during winter. In one model more electricity was saved in ohmic heating than was generated by cooling the PV cells. Cooling the PV modules was found to increase their electrical output up to 4%, but much of the extra electricity was consumed by the cooling pumps.

The slowly evolving background state of the atmosphere

The theory of wave–mean flow interaction requires a partition of the atmospheric flow into a notional background state and perturbations to it. Here, a background state, known as the Modified Lagrangian Mean (MLM), is defined as the zonally symmetric state obtained by requiring that every potential vorticity (PV) contour lying within an isentropic layer encloses the same mass and circulation as in the full flow. For adiabatic and frictionless flow, these two integral properties are time-invariant and the MLM state is a steady solution of the primitive equations. The time dependence in the adiabatic flow is put into the perturbations, which can be described by a wave-activity conservation law that is exact even at large amplitude. Furthermore, the effects of non-conservative processes on wave activity can be calculated from the conservation law. A new method to calculate the MLM state is introduced, where the position of the lower boundary is obtained as part of the solution. The results are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere ERA-Interim data. The MLM state evolves slowly, implying that the net non-conservative effects are weak. Although ‘adiabatic eddy fluxes’ cannot affect the MLM state, the effects of Rossby-wave breaking, PV filamentation and subsequent dissipation result in sharpening of the polar vortex edge and meridional shifts in the MLM zonal flow, both at tropopause level and on the winter stratospheric vortex. The rate of downward migration of wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings is shown to be given by the vertical scale associated with polar vortex tilt divided by the time-scale for wave dissipation estimated from the wave-activity conservation law. Aspects of troposphere–stratosphere interaction are discussed. The new framework is suitable to examine the climate and its interactions with disturbances, such as midlatitude storm tracks, and makes a clean partition between adiabatic and non-conservative processes.

Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non-conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air-mass relative framework. This “PV tracer technique” is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non-conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non-conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The nonconservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level.

A potential vorticity signature for the cold sector of winter extratropical cyclones

The cold sector of a midlatitude storm is characterized by distinctive features such as strong surface heat fluxes, shallow convection, convective precipitation and synoptic subsidence. In order to evaluate the contribution of processes occurring in the cold sector to the mean climate, an appropriate indicator is needed. This study describes the systematic presence of negative potential vorticity (PV) behind the cold front of extratropical storms in winter. The origin of this negative PV is analyzed using ERA-Interim data, and PV tendencies averaged over the depth of the boundary layer are evaluated. It is found that negative PV is generated by diabatic processes in the cold sector and by Ekman pumping at the low centre, whereas positive PV is generated by Ekman advection of potential temperature in the warm sector. We suggest here that negative PV at low levels can be used to identify the cold sector. A PV-based indicator is applied to estimate the respective contributions of the cold sector and the remainder of the storm to upward motion and large-scale and convective precipitation. We compare the PV-based indicator with other distinctive features that could be used as markers of the cold sector and find that potential vorticity is the best criterion when taken alone and the best when combined with any other.