O princípio da impessoalidade nas decisões administrativas

Estuda-se nesta tese o conteúdo jurídico do princípio da impessoalidade, previsto no art. 37, caput, da Constituição Federal de 1988, especificamente para fins de parametrização, controle e responsabilidade das decisões administrativas. Estruturam-se três eixos temáticos: a) noções introdutórias ideias de aproximação necessárias ao contexto e ao conceito do princípio da impessoalidade e do alcance de sua projeção nas decisões administrativas (póspositivismo e neoconstitucionalismo; constitucionalização; julgamento por princípios; relevância dos princípios; interesse público; direito administrativo como sistema; neutralidade política e a questão da justiça); b) impessoalidade no direito administrativo comprovação de que o princípio da impessoalidade ostenta arquétipo aberto para conferir maiores cobertura e proteção aos valores tutelados pelo texto constitucional, com ênfase à organização administrativa impessoal para assegurar um agir naturalmente impessoal (instrumentalização recíproca de princípios constitucionais; antecedentes históricos; direito estrangeiro; doutrina brasileira; impessoalidade na Constituição, nas leis e na jurisprudência; conceito de impessoalidade); c) impessoalidade nas decisões administrativas construção de um conceito de impessoalidade específico para as decisões administrativas, concebido desde a ideia de ponderação e conciliação de todos os interesses legítimos públicos e privados envolvidos em cada caso concreto (conceito e distinção de decisão administrativa impessoal em relação à decisão judicial imparcial; garantias e requisitos para a adoção de decisões impessoais, com destaque para os deveres de fundamentação (motivação), processualização e participação; algumas implicações de decisões impessoais [funcionário de fato; diminuição da discricionariedade; desvio de poder; motivação na dispensa de empregados públicos; responsabilidade civil extracontratual do Estado; necessidade de reconhecimento dos direitos dos administrados; nepotismo e revisitação da reformatio in pejus]; consequências da quebra da impessoalidade nas decisões administrativas [anulação; responsabilização do Estado e responsabilização do servidor] e, finalmente, técnicas para adoção de decisões administrativas impessoais).

Improved and customized secondary optics for photo-voltaic concentrators

In this contribution the line flow method is applied to an optimized secondary optics in a photovoltaic concentration system where the primary optics is already defined and characterized. This method is a particular application of photic field theory. This method uses the parameterization of a given primary optics, including actual tolerances of the manufacturing process. The design of the secondary optics is constrained by the selection of primary optics and maximizes the concentration at a previously specified collection area. The geometry of the secondary element is calculated by using a virtual source, which sends light in a first concentration step. This allows us to calculate the line flow for this specific case. This concept allows designing more compact and efficient secondary optics of photovoltaic systems.

The magnetically-active, low-mass, triple system WDS 19312+3607 (Research Note)

Aims. We investigated in detail the system WDS 19312+3607, whose primary is an active M4.5Ve star previously inferred to be young (τ ~ 300–500 Ma) based on its high X-ray luminosity. Methods. We collected intermediate- and low-resolution optical spectra taken with 2 m-class telescopes, photometric data from the B to 8 μm bands, and data for eleven astrometric epochs with a time baseline of over 56 years for the two components in the system, G 125–15 and G 125–14. Results. We derived the M4.5V spectral types of both stars, confirmed their common proper motion, estimated their heliocentric distance and projected physical separation, determined their Galactocentric space velocities, and deduced a most-probable age of older than 600 Ma. We discovered that the primary, G 125–15, is an inflated, double-lined, spectroscopic binary with a short period of photometric variability of 1.6 d, which we associated with orbital synchronisation. The observed X-ray and Hα emissions, photometric variability, and abnormal radius and effective temperature of G 125–15 AB are indicative of strong magnetic activity, possibly because of the rapid rotation. In addition, the estimated projected physical separation between G 125–15 AB and G 125–14 of about 1200 AU ensures that WDS 19312+3607 is one of the widest systems with intermediate M-type primaries. Conclusions. G 125–15 AB is a nearby (d ≈ 26 pc), bright (J ≈ 9.6 mag), active spectroscopic binary with a single proper-motion companion of the same spectral type at a wide separation. They are thus ideal targets for specific follow-ups to investigate wide and close multiplicity or stellar expansion and surface cooling because of the lower convective efficiency.

Hα emission fluxes and lithium abundances of low-mass stars in the young open cluster IC 4665

As part of a long term effort to understand pre-main sequence Li burning, we have obtained high resolution spectroscopic observations of 14 late type stars (G0-M1) in the young open cluster IC 4665. Most of the stars have Hα filled-in and Li I absorption, as expected for their young age. From the equivalent widths of Hα emission excess (obtained using the spectral subtraction technique) and the the Li i λ6708 feature, we have derived Hα emission fluxes and photospheric Li abundances. The mean Li abundance of IC 4665 solar-type stars is log N(Li) = 3.1; the same as in other young clusters (α Per, Pleiades) and T Tauri stars. Our results support the conclusions from previous works that PMS Li depletion is very small for masses ∼ 1 M_⨀ . Among the IC 4665 late-G and early K-type stars, there is a spread in Li abundances of about one order of magnitude. The Li-poor IC 4665 members have low Hα excess and vsini≤10. Hence, the Li-activity-rotation connection which has been clearly established in the Pleiades also seems to hold in IC 4665. One M-type IC 4665 star that we have observed does not show Li, implying a very efficient Li depletion as observed in α Per stars of the same spectral type. The level of chromospheric activity and Li depletion among the low-mass stars of IC 4665 is similar to that in the Pleiades. In fact, we note that the Li abundance distributions in several young clusters (α Per, Pleiades, IC 2391, IC 4665) and in post T Tauri stars are strikingly similar. This result suggests that Hα emission and Li abundance not well correlated with age for low-mass stars between 20 and 100 Myr old. We argue that a finer age indicator, the ''LL-clock'', would be the luminosity at which the transition between efficient Li depletion and preservation takes place for fully convective objects. The LL-clock could allow in the near future to derive the relative ages of young open clusters, and clarify the study of PMS evolution of cool stars.

Aplicação de uma rede neural artificial para a avaliação da rugosidade e soprosidade vocal

A avaliação perceptivo-auditiva tem papel fundamental no estudo e na avaliação da voz, no entanto, por ser subjetiva está sujeita a imprecisões e variações. Por outro lado, a análise acústica permite a reprodutibilidade de resultados, porém precisa ser aprimorada, pois não analisa com precisão vozes com disfonias mais intensas e com ondas caóticas. Assim, elaborar medidas que proporcionem conhecimentos confiáveis em relação à função vocal resulta de uma necessidade antiga dentro desta linha de pesquisa e atuação clínica. Neste contexto, o uso da inteligência artificial, como as redes neurais artificiais, indica ser uma abordagem promissora. Objetivo: Validar um sistema automático utilizando redes neurais artificiais para a avaliação de vozes rugosas e soprosas. Materiais e métodos: Foram selecionadas 150 vozes, desde neutras até com presença em grau intenso de rugosidade e/ou soprosidade, do banco de dados da Clínica de Fonoaudiologia da Faculdade de Odontologia de Bauru (FOB/USP). Dessas vozes, 23 foram excluídas por não responderem aos critérios de inclusão na amostra, assim utilizaram-se 123 vozes. Procedimentos: avaliação perceptivo-auditiva pela escala visual analógica de 100 mm e pela escala numérica de quatro pontos; extração de características do sinal de voz por meio da Transformada Wavelet Packet e dos parâmetros acústicos: jitter, shimmer, amplitude da derivada e amplitude do pitch; e validação do classificador por meio da parametrização, treino, teste e avaliação das redes neurais artificiais. Resultados: Na avaliação perceptivo-auditiva encontrou-se, por meio do teste Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse (CCI), concordâncias inter e intrajuiz excelentes, com p = 0,85 na concordância interjuízes e p variando de 0,87 a 0,93 nas concordâncias intrajuiz. Em relação ao desempenho da rede neural artificial, na discriminação da soprosidade e da rugosidade e dos seus respectivos graus, encontrou-se o melhor desempenho para a soprosidade no subconjunto composto pelo jitter, amplitude do pitch e frequência fundamental, no qual obteve-se taxa de acerto de 74%, concordância excelente com a avaliação perceptivo-auditiva da escala visual analógica (0,80 no CCI) e erro médio de 9 mm. Para a rugosidade, o melhor subconjunto foi composto pela Transformada Wavelet Packet com 1 nível de decomposição, jitter, shimmer, amplitude do pitch e frequência fundamental, no qual obteve-se 73% de acerto, concordância excelente (0,84 no CCI), e erro médio de 10 mm. Conclusão: O uso da inteligência artificial baseado em redes neurais artificiais na identificação, e graduação da rugosidade e da soprosidade, apresentou confiabilidade excelente (CCI > 0,80), com resultados semelhantes a concordância interjuízes. Dessa forma, a rede neural artificial revela-se como uma metodologia promissora de avaliação vocal, tendo sua maior vantagem a objetividade na avaliação.

Mathematical modeling of drying process of unripe banana slices

Unripe banana flour (UBF) production employs bananas not submitted to maturation process, is an interesting alternative to minimize the fruit loss reduction related to inappropriate handling or fast ripening. The UBF is considered as a functional ingredient improving glycemic and plasma insulin levels in blood, have also shown efficacy on the control of satiety, insulin resistance. The aim of this work was to study the drying process of unripe banana slabs (Musa cavendishii, Nanicão) developing a transient drying model through mathematical modeling with simultaneous moisture and heat transfer. The raw material characterization was performed and afterwards the drying process was conducted at 40 ºC, 50 ºC e 60 ºC, the product temperature was recorded using thermocouples, the air velocity inside the chamber was 4 m·s-1. With the experimental data was possible to validate the diffusion model based on the Fick\'s second law and Fourier. For this purpose, the sorption isotherms were measured and fitted to the GAB model estimating the equilibrium moisture content (Xe), 1.76 [g H2O/100g d.b.] at 60 ºC and 10 % of relative humidity (RH), the thermophysical properties (k, Cp, ?) were also measured to be used in the model. Five cases were contemplated: i) Constant thermophysical properties; ii) Variable properties; iii) Mass (hm), heat transfer (h) coefficient and effective diffusivity (De) estimation 134 W·m-2·K-1, 4.91x10-5 m-2·s-1 and 3.278?10-10 m·s-2 at 60 ºC, respectively; iv) Variable De, it presented a third order polynomial behavior as function of moisture content; v) The shrinkage had an effect on the mathematical model, especially in the 3 first hours of process, the thickness experienced a contraction of about (30.34 ± 1.29) % out of the initial thickness, finding two decreasing drying rate periods (DDR I and DDR II), 3.28x10-10 m·s-2 and 1.77x10-10 m·s-2, respectively. COMSOL Multiphysics simulations were possible to perform through the heat and mass transfer coefficient estimated by the mathematical modeling.

Sistema especialista para análise pós-evento da proteção em subestações distribuidoras.

É importante que as redes elétricas tenham altos índices de confiabilidade, de forma a se manter a agilidade e a manutenção ideais para um melhor funcionamento. Por outro lado, o crescimento inesperado da carga, falhas em equipamentos e uma parametrização inadequada das funções de proteção tornam a análise de eventos de proteção mais complexas e demoradas. Além disso, a quantidade de informações que pode ser obtida de relés digitais modernos tem crescido constantemente. Para que seja possível uma rápida tomada de decisão e manutenção, esse projeto de pesquisa teve como objetivo a implementação de um sistema completo de diagnóstico que é ativado automaticamente quando um evento de proteção ocorrer. As informações a serem analisadas são obtidas de uma base de dados e de relés de proteção, via protocolo de comunicação IEC 61850 e arquivos de oscilografia. O trabalho aborda o sistema Smart Grid completo incluindo: a aquisição de dados nos relés, detalhando o sistema de comunicação desenvolvido através de um software com um cliente IEC61850 e um servidor OPC e um software com um cliente OPC, que é ativado por eventos configurados para dispará-lo (por exemplo, atuação da proteção); o sistema de pré-tratamento de dados, onde os dados provenientes dos relés e equipamentos de proteção são filtrados, pré-processados e formatados; e o sistema de diagnóstico. Um banco de dados central mantém atualizados os dados de todas essas etapas. O sistema de diagnóstico utiliza algoritmos convencionais e técnicas de inteligência artificial, em particular, um sistema especialista. O sistema especialista foi desenvolvido para lidar com diferentes conjuntos de dados de entrada e com uma possível falta de dados, sempre garantindo a entrega de diagnósticos. Foram realizados testes e simulações para curtos-circuitos (trifásico, dupla-fase, dupla-fase-terra e fase-terra) em alimentadores, transformadores e barras de uma subestação. Esses testes incluíram diferentes estados do sistema de proteção (funcionamento correto e impróprio). O sistema se mostrou totalmente eficaz tanto no caso de disponibilidade completa quanto parcial de informações, sempre fornecendo um diagnóstico do curto-circuito e analisando o funcionamento das funções de proteção da subestação. Dessa forma, possibilita-se uma manutenção muito mais eficiente pelas concessionárias de energia, principalmente no que diz respeito à prevenção de defeitos em equipamentos, rápida resposta a problemas, e necessidade de reparametrização das funções de proteção. O sistema foi instalado com sucesso em uma subestação de distribuição da Companhia Paulista de Força e Luz.

3D model reconstruction using neural gas accelerated on GPU

In this work, we propose the use of the neural gas (NG), a neural network that uses an unsupervised Competitive Hebbian Learning (CHL) rule, to develop a reverse engineering process. This is a simple and accurate method to reconstruct objects from point clouds obtained from multiple overlapping views using low-cost sensors. In contrast to other methods that may need several stages that include downsampling, noise filtering and many other tasks, the NG automatically obtains the 3D model of the scanned objects. To demonstrate the validity of our proposal we tested our method with several models and performed a study of the neural network parameterization computing the quality of representation and also comparing results with other neural methods like growing neural gas and Kohonen maps or classical methods like Voxel Grid. We also reconstructed models acquired by low cost sensors that can be used in virtual and augmented reality environments for redesign or manipulation purposes. Since the NG algorithm has a strong computational cost we propose its acceleration. We have redesigned and implemented the NG learning algorithm to fit it onto Graphics Processing Units using CUDA. A speed-up of 180× faster is obtained compared to the sequential CPU version.

Implementation of non-local boundary layer schemes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and its impact on simulated mesoscale circulations

This paper proposes the implementation of different non-local Planetary Boundary Layer schemes within the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model. The two selected PBL parameterizations are the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBL and its updated version, known as the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL. YSU is a first-order scheme that uses non-local eddy diffusivity coefficients to compute turbulent fluxes. It is based on the MRF, and improves it with an explicit treatment of the entrainment. With the aim of evaluating the RAMS results for these PBL parameterizations, a series of numerical simulations have been performed and contrasted with the results obtained using the Mellor and Yamada (MY) scheme, also widely used, and the standard PBL scheme in the RAMS model. The numerical study carried out here is focused on mesoscale circulation events during the summer, as these meteorological situations dominate this season of the year in the Western Mediterranean coast. In addition, the sensitivity of these PBL parameterizations to the initial soil moisture content is also evaluated. The results show a warmer and moister PBL for the YSU scheme compared to both MRF and MY. The model presents as well a tendency to overestimate the observed temperature and to underestimate the observed humidity, considering all PBL schemes and a low initial soil moisture content. In addition, the bias between the model and the observations is significantly reduced moistening the initial soil moisture of the corresponding run. Thus, varying this parameter has a positive effect and improves the simulated results in relation to the observations. However, there is still a significant overestimation of the wind speed over flatter terrain, independently of the PBL scheme and the initial soil moisture used, even though a different degree of accuracy is reproduced by RAMS taking into account the different sensitivity tests.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Time Evolution of Physicochemical Properties of Carrots During the Drying Process

This study is aimed to determine the properties of Nantes carrots while drying by hot air at three different temperatures (50, 60 and 70 ºC). The chemical properties evaluated were: moisture, pro- tein, fibre, ash, sugars and water activity, and the physical properties were: texture, color, density and porosity. The results showed that the drying at 70 ºC affected mostly the chemical properties analyzed. Regarding the texture, similar changes were recorded in terms of hardness, gumminess and chewiness at the temperature of 70 ºC that affected these properties the most. Regarding color, in general the vari- ations in a* and b* along drying were not meaningful, although some discoloration was observed (in- crease in L*). The porosity increased due to the decrease in humidity. The final porosity measured for the carrots dried at 70 ºC was; however, lower than those for 50 and 60 ºC.

Drying Peppers: Technolocy and Properties

The peppers can be very diverse, from sweet to hot peppers, varying in shape, in colour, in properties and usages. While some are eaten in the fresh state, many of them undergo a drying process to be preserved for a longer time and to increase availability and convenience. Hence, after harvesting, in many cases a drying operation is involved, and the present chapter aims to address this operation, of pivotal importance. In ancient times, the drying of foods in general and peppers in particular was done by exposure to the solar radiation. However, despite its cheapness and easiness, this process involved many drawbacks, like long drying times, probability of adverse atmospheric conditions and contaminations of the product. Hence, nowadays its usage is reduced. The most popular industrial drying method is the hot air convective drying. However, the high temperatures to which the product is exposed can cause changes in the composition and nutritional value as well as in the physical properties or organoleptic quality of the products. Other alternative methods can be used, but sometimes they are more expensive or more time consuming, such as is the case of freeze drying. Still, this last also has visible advantages from the quality point of view, minimizing the changes in texture, colour, flavour or nutrients. The knowledge of adequate drying operating conditions allows the optimization of the product characteristics, and hence to know the drying kinetics or the isotherms is fundamental to properly design the most adequate drying processes, and therefore preserve the organoleptic characteristics as well as the bioactive compounds present.

Numerical and experimental investigation of structural stiffness influence on ratcheting convection cell in granular soils under cyclic loading

Lateral cyclic loaded structures in granular soils can lead to an accumulation of irreversible strains by changing their mechanical response (densification) and forming a closed convective cell in the upper layer of the bedding. In the present thesis the convective cell dimension, formation and grain migration inside this closed volume have been studied and presented in relation to structural stiffness and different loads. This relation was experimentally investigated by applying a cyclic lateral force to a scaled flexible vertical element embedded in dry granular soil. The model was monitored with a camera in order to derive the displacement field by means of the PIV technique. Modelling large soil deformation turns out to be difficult, using mesh-based methods. Consequently, a mesh-free approach (DEM) was chosen in order to investigate the granular flow with the aim of extracting interesting micromechanical information. In both the numerical and experimental analyses the effect of different loading magnitudes and different dimensions of the vertical element were considered. The main results regarded the different development, shape and dimensions of the convection cell and the surface settlements. Moreover, the Discrete Element Method has proven to give satisfactory results in the modelling of large deformation phenomena such as the ratcheting convective cell.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Data compilation of ESOP

The work in this sub-project of ESOP focuses on the advective and convective transforma-tion of water masses in the Greenland Sea and its neighbouring areas. It includes observational work on the sub-mesoscale and analysis of hydrographic data up to the gyre-scale. Observations of active convective plumes were made with a towed chain equipped with up to 80 CTD sensors, giving a horizontal and vertical resolution of the hydrographic fields of a few metres. The observed scales of the penetrative convective plumes compare well with those given by theory. On the mesoscale the structure of homogeneous eddies formed as a result of deep convection was observed and the associated mixing and renewal of the intermediate layers quantified. The relative importance and efficiency of thermal and haline penetrative convection in relation to the surface boundary conditions (heat and salt fluxes and ice cover) and the ambient stratification are studied using the multi year time series of hydro-graphic data in the central Greenland Sea. The modification of the water column of the Greenland Sea gyre through advection from and mixing with water at its rim is assessed on longer time scales. The relative contributions are quantified using modern water mass analysis methods based on inverse techniques. Likewise the convective renewal and the spreading of the Arctic Intermediate Water from its formation area is quantified. The aim is to budget the heat and salt content of the water column, in particular of the low salinity surface layer, and to relate its seasonal and interannual variability to the lateral fluxes and the fluxes at the air-sea-ice interface. This will allow to estimate residence times for the different layers of the Greenland Sea gyre, a quantity important for the description of the Polar Ocean carbon cycle.