Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

Financing road transport infrastructure

In the UK, public expenditure on transport infrastructure is nearly £6 billion for the past few years. Over £500 million per year were spent on bridge assessment and strengthening and reducing the backlog of road requiring maintenance. A further £200 million a year will be spent on keeping the safe operation of the network and efficiently through day to day maintenance, lighting and signing . The Department of Transport is planning to extend private sector experience in road management and operation by introducing Design, Build, Finance and Operate (DBFO) This paper investigates the different ways of financing road transport infrastructure including road pricing, private finance in transport infrastructure, the role of the private sector, Design, Build, Finance and Operate (DBFO) schemes, the benefits and problems of such schemes. The paper considers planning gain as a means of financing transport infrastructure with examples of developers to fund link road building and improvements to the local planning system

Eye-movements aid the control of locomotion

Eye-movements have long been considered a problem when trying to understand the visual control of locomotion. They transform the retinal image from a simple expanding pattern of moving texture elements (pure optic flow), into a complex combination of translation and rotation components (retinal flow). In this article we investigate whether there are measurable advantages to having an active free gaze, over a static gaze or tracking gaze, when steering along a winding path. We also examine patterns of free gaze behavior to determine preferred gaze strategies during active locomotion. Participants were asked to steer along a computer-simulated textured roadway with free gaze, fixed gaze, or gaze tracking the center of the roadway. Deviation of position from the center of the road was recorded along with their point of gaze. It was found that visually tracking the middle of the road produced smaller steering errors than for fixed gaze. Participants performed best at the steering task when allowed to sample naturally from the road ahead with free gaze. There was some variation in the gaze strategies used, but sampling was predominantly of areas proximal to the center of the road. These results diverge from traditional models of flow analysis.

'They Shall Speak the Arabic Language and Take Pride in it': reconsidering the fate of Coptic after the Arab Conquest

The complaints on the adoption of Arabic by the Copts that are voiced by the Apocalypse of Pseudo-Samuel have often been quoted as the expiring words of the dying Coptic language. This article seeks to show that they are not to be taken so literally, and that they should rather be inserted in the context of a rift within the medieval Coptic church over the question of language choice, and beyond this, over that of accommodation with the Muslims. The use of Arabic by the episcopal church of Miṣr and by some prominent figures around it, which was linked to their proximity to the Fatimid court, was resented and denounced by more traditional circles, centred on the Patriarchate and on some important monasteries such as the one at Qalamūn where the Apocalypse was written. The suggestion is also made that the text is contemporary with the beginning of Coptic literary production in Arabic and with the introduction of Egyptian Christians at the caliphal court, namely in the last quarter of the tenth century, at the time of Severus ibn al-Muqqafa‘.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

'You show me yours, I'll show you mine': the negotiation of shifts from textual to visual modes in computer-mediated interaction among gay men

This article explores the way users of an online gay chat room negotiate the exchange of photographs and the conduct of video conferencing sessions and how this negotiation changes the way participants manage their interactions and claim and impute social identities. Different modes of communication provide users with different resources for the control of information, affecting not just what users are able to reveal, but also what they are able to conceal. Thus, the shift from a purely textual mode for interacting to one involving visual images fundamentally changes the kinds of identities and relationships available to users. At the same time, the strategies users employ to negotiate these shifts of mode can alter the resources available in different modes. The kinds of social actions made possible through different modes, it is argued, are not just a matter of the modes themselves but also of how modes are introduced into the ongoing flow of interaction.