A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, November 2005

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program - November 2005

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report-Family Investment Program, December 2005

A-1 December 2005 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report - Family Investment Program

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, January 2006

Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, January 2006

Decision making and management of gliomas: practical considerations.

Over the last decade, diagnostic options and introduction of novel treatments have expanded the armamentarium in the management of malignant glioma. Combined chemoradiotherapy has become the standard of care in glioblastoma up to the age of 70 years, while treatment in elderly patients or with lower grade glioma is less well defined. Molecular markers define different disease subtypes and allow for adapted treatment selection. This review focuses on simple questions arising in the daily management of patients.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report-Family Investment Program, February 2006

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, February 2006

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, March 2006

A-1 - March 2006 -Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, April 2006

Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, April 2006

Adaptive strategy for the statistical analysis of connectomes.

We study an adaptive statistical approach to analyze brain networks represented by brain connection matrices of interregional connectivity (connectomes). Our approach is at a middle level between a global analysis and single connections analysis by considering subnetworks of the global brain network. These subnetworks represent either the inter-connectivity between two brain anatomical regions or by the intra-connectivity within the same brain anatomical region. An appropriate summary statistic, that characterizes a meaningful feature of the subnetwork, is evaluated. Based on this summary statistic, a statistical test is performed to derive the corresponding p-value. The reformulation of the problem in this way reduces the number of statistical tests in an orderly fashion based on our understanding of the problem. Considering the global testing problem, the p-values are corrected to control the rate of false discoveries. Finally, the procedure is followed by a local investigation within the significant subnetworks. We contrast this strategy with the one based on the individual measures in terms of power. We show that this strategy has a great potential, in particular in cases where the subnetworks are well defined and the summary statistics are properly chosen. As an application example, we compare structural brain connection matrices of two groups of subjects with a 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, distinguished by their IQ scores.

A-1, Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, May 2006

A-1 May 2006 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

The impact of information on decision-making in palliative care

Résumé Ce travail vise à clarifier les résultats contradictoires de la littérature concernant les besoins des patients d'être informés et de participer à la prise de décision. La littérature insiste sur le contenu de l'information comme base de la prise de décision, bien qu'il existe des preuves que d'autres contenus sont importants pour les patients. La thèse essaie en outre d'identifier des possibilités de mieux répondre aux préférences d'information et de participation des patients. Les travaux ont porté en particulier sur les soins palliatifs. Une analyse de la littérature donne un aperçu sur les soins palliatifs, sur l'information des patients et sur leur participation à la prise de décisions thérapeutiques. Cette analyse résume les résultats d'études précédentes et propose un: modèle théorique d'information, de prise de décision et de relation entre ces deux domaines. Dans le cadre de ce travail, deux études empiriques ont utilisé des questionnaires écrits adressés à des personnes privées et à des professionnels de la santé, couvrant la Suisse et le Royaume Uni, pour identifier d'éventuelles différences entre ces deux pays. Les enquêtes ont été focalisées sur des patients souffrant de cancer du poumon. Les instruments utilisés pour ces études proviennent de la littérature afin de les rendre comparables. Le taux de réponse aux questionnaires était de 30-40%. La majorité des participants aux enquêtes estime que les patients devraient: - collaborer à la prise de décision quant à leur traitement - recevoir autant d'information que possible, positive aussi bien que négative - recevoir toutes les informations mentionnées dans le questionnaire (concernant la maladie, le diagnostic et les traitements), tenant compte de la diversité des priorités des patients - être soutenus par des professionnels de la santé, leur famille, leurs amis et/ou les personnes souffrant de la même maladie En plus, les participants aux enquêtes ont identifié divers contenus de l'information aux patients souffrant d'une maladie grave. Ces contenus comprennent entre autres: - L'aide à la prise de décision concernant le traitement - la possibilité de maintenir le contrôle de la situation - la construction d'une relation entre le patient et le soignant - l'encouragement à faire des projets d'avenir - l'influence de l'état émotionnel - l'aide à la compréhension de la maladie et de son impact - les sources potentielles d'états confusionnels et d'états anxieux La plupart des contenus proposés sont positifs. Les résultats suggèrent la coexistence possible de différents contenus à un moment donné ainsi que leur changement au cours du temps. Un modèle est ensuite développé et commenté pour présenter le diagnostic d'une maladie grave. Ce modèle est basé sur la littérature et intègre les résultats des études empiriques réalisées dans le cadre de ce travail. Ce travail analyse également les sources préférées d'information et de soutien, facteurs qui peuvent influencer ou faire obstacle aux préférences d'information et de participation. Les deux groupes de participants considèrent les médecins spécialistes comme la meilleure source d'information. En ce qui concerne le soutien, les points de vue divergent entre les personnes privées et les professionnels de la santé: généralement, les rôles de soutien semblent peu définis parmi les professionnels. Les barrières à l'information adéquate du patient apparaissent fréquemment liées aux caractéristiques des professionnels et aux problèmes d'organisation. Des progrès dans ce domaine contribueraient à améliorer les soins fournis aux patients. Finalement, les limites des études empiriques sont discutées. Celles-ci comprennent, entre autres, la représentativité restreinte des participants et les objections de certains groupes de participants à quelques détails des questionnaires. Summary The present thesis follows a call from the current body of literature to better understand patient needs for information and for participation in decision-making, as previous research findings had been contradictory. Information so far seems to have been considered essentially as a means to making treatment decisions, despite certain evidence that it may have a number of other values to patients. Furthermore, the thesis aims to identify ways to optimise meeting patient preferences for information and participation in treatment decisions. The current field of interest is palliative care. An extensive literature review depicts the background of current concepts of palliative care, patient information and patient involvement into treatment decisions. It also draws together results from previous studies and develops a theoretical model of information, decision-making, and the relationship between them. This is followed by two empirical studies collecting data from members of the general public and health care professionals by means of postal questionnaires. The professional study covers both Switzerland and the United Kingdom in order to identify possible differences between countries. Both studies focus on newly diagnosed lung cancer patients. The instruments used were taken from the literature to make them comparable. The response rate in both surveys was 30-40%, as expected -sufficient to allow stastical tests to be performed. A third study, addressed to lung cancer patients themselves, turned out to require too much time within the frame available. A majority of both study populations thought that patients should: - have a collaborative role in treatment-related decision-making -receive as much information as possible, good or bad - receive all types of information mentioned in the questionnaire (about illness, tests, and treatment), although priorities varied across the study populations - be supported by health professionals, family members, friends and/or others with the same illness Furthermore they identified various 'meanings' information may have to patients with a serious illness. These included: - being an aid in treatment-related decision-making - allowing control to be maintained over the situation - helping the patient-professional relationship to be constructed - allowing plans to be made - being positive for the patient's emotional state - helping the illness and its impact to be understood - being a source of anxiety - being a potential source of confusion to the patient Meanings were mostly positive. It was suggested that different meanings could co-exist at a given time and that they might change over time. A model of coping with the disclosure of a serious diagnosis is then developped. This model is based on existing models of coping with threatening events, as takeñ from the literature [ref. 77, 78], and integrates findings from the empirical studies. The thesis then analyses the remaining aspects apparent from the two surveys. These range from the identification of preferred information and support providers to factors influencing or impeding information and participation preferences. Specialist doctors were identified by both study populations as the best information providers whilst with regard to support provision views differed between the general public and health professionals. A need for better definition of supportive roles among health care workers seemed apparent. Barriers to information provision often seem related to health professional characteristics or organisational difficulties, and improvements in the latter field could well help optimising patient care. Finally, limitations of the studies are discussed, including questions of representativness of certain results and difficulties with or objections against questionnaire details by some groups of respondents.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.