984 resultados para Bayesian method


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Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

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We present a Bayesian approach for estimating the relative frequencies of multi-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) haplotypes in populations of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum by using microarray SNP data from human blood samples. Each sample comes from a malaria patient and contains one or several parasite clones that may genetically differ. Samples containing multiple parasite clones with different genetic markers pose a special challenge. The situation is comparable with a polyploid organism. The data from each blood sample indicates whether the parasites in the blood carry a mutant or a wildtype allele at various selected genomic positions. If both mutant and wildtype alleles are detected at a given position in a multiply infected sample, the data indicates the presence of both alleles, but the ratio is unknown. Thus, the data only partially reveals which specific combinations of genetic markers (i.e. haplotypes across the examined SNPs) occur in distinct parasite clones. In addition, SNP data may contain errors at non-negligible rates. We use a multinomial mixture model with partially missing observations to represent this data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the haplotype frequencies in a population. Our approach addresses both challenges, multiple infections and data errors.

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A screened Rutherford cross section is modified by means of a correction factor to obtain the proper transport cross section computed by partial¿wave analysis. The correction factor is tabulated for electron energies in the range 0¿100 keV and for elements in the range from Z=4 to 82. The modified screened Rutherford cross section is shown to be useful as an approximation for the simulation of plural and multiple scattering. Its performance and limitations are exemplified for electrons scattered in Al and Au.

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A screened Rutherford cross section is modified by means of a correction factor to obtain the proper transport cross section computed by partial¿wave analysis. The correction factor is tabulated for electron energies in the range 0¿100 keV and for elements in the range from Z=4 to 82. The modified screened Rutherford cross section is shown to be useful as an approximation for the simulation of plural and multiple scattering. Its performance and limitations are exemplified for electrons scattered in Al and Au.

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An instrument designed to measure thermal conductivity of consolidated rocks, dry or saturated, using a transient method is presented. The instrument measures relative values of the thermal conductivity, and it needs calibration to obtain absolute values. The device can be used as heat pulse line source and as continuous heat line source. Two parameters to determine thermal conductivity are proposed: TMAX, in heat pulse line source, and SLOPE, in continuous heat line source. Its performance is better, and the operation simpler, in heat pulse line-source mode with a measuring time of 170 s and a reproducibility better than 2.5%. The sample preparation is very simple on both modes. The performance has been tested with a set of ten rocks with thermal conductivity values between 1.4 and 5.2 W m¿1 K¿1 which covers the usual range for consolidated rocks.

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We evaluated microcalorimetry for real-time susceptibility testing of Aspergillus spp. based on growth-related heat production. The minimal heat inhibitory concentration (MHIC) for A. fumigatus ATCC 204305 was 1 mg/L for amphotericin B, 0.25 mg/L for voriconazole, 0.06 mg/L for posaconazole, 0.125 mg/L for caspofungin and 0.03 mg/L for anidulafungin. Agreement within two 2-fold dilutions between MHIC (determined by microcalorimetry) and MIC or MEC (determined by CLSI M38A) was 90% for amphotericin B, 100% for voriconazole, 90% for posaconazole and 70% for caspofungin. This proof-of-concept study demonstrated the potential of isothermal microcalorimetry for growth evaluation of Aspergillus spp. and real-time antifungal susceptibility testing.

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Cerebral perfusion-weighted imaging (PWI) in neonates is known to be technically difficult and there are very few published studies on its use in preterm infants. In this paper, we describe one convenient method to perform PWI in neonates, a method only recently used in newborns. A device was used to manually inject gadolinium contrast material intravenously in an easy, quick and reproducible way. We studied 28 newborn infants, with various gestational ages and weights, including both normal infants and those suffering from different brain pathologies. A signal intensity-time curve was obtained for each infant, allowing us to build perfusion maps. This technique offered a fast and easy method to manually inject a bolus gadolinium contrast material, which is essential in performing PWI in neonates. Cerebral PWI is technically feasible and reproducible in neonates of various gestational age and with various pathologies.

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We show that Burckhardt's method is available to codify phase-only filters with amplitude-only variations. Correlation experimental results are given.

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We present a method to detect patterns in defocused scenes by means of a joint transform correlator. We describe analytically the correlation plane, and we also introduce an original procedure to recognize the target by postprocessing the correlation plane. The performance of the methodology when the defocused images are corrupted by additive noise is also considered.

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We introduce a new parameter to investigate replica symmetry breaking transitions using finite-size scaling methods. Based on exact equalities initially derived by F. Guerra this parameter is a direct check of the self-averaging character of the spin-glass order parameter. This new parameter can be used to study models with time reversal symmetry but its greatest interest lies in models where this symmetry is absent. We apply the method to long-range and short-range Ising spin-glasses with and without a magnetic field as well as short-range multispin interaction spin-glasses.

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Studies testing the High Energy Moisture Characteristic (HEMC) technique in tropical soils are still incipient. By this method, the effects of different management systems can be evaluated. This study investigated the aggregation state of an Oxisol under coffee with Brachiaria between crop rows and surface-applied gypsum rates using HEMC. Soil in an experimental area in the Upper São Francisco region, Minas Gerais, was studied at depths of 0.05 and 0.20 m in coffee rows. The treatments consisted of 0, 7, and 28 Mg ha-1 of agricultural gypsum rates distributed on the soil surface of the coffee rows, between which Brachiaria was grown and periodically cut, and compared with a treatment without Brachiaria between coffee rows and no gypsum application. To determine the aggregation state using the HEMC method, soil aggregates were placed in a Büchner funnel (500 mL) and wetted using a peristaltic pump with a volumetric syringe. The wetting was applied increasingly at two pre-set speeds: slow (2 mm h-1) and fast (100 mm h-1). Once saturated, the aggregates were exposed to a gradually increasing tension by the displacement of a water column (varying from 0 to 30 cm) to obtain the moisture retention curve [M = f (Ψ) ], underlying the calculation of the stability parameters: modal suction, volume of drainable pores (VDP), stability index (slow and fast), VDP ratio, and stability ratio. The HEMC method conferred sensitivity in quantifying the aggregate stability parameters, and independent of whether gypsum was used, the soil managed with Brachiaria between the coffee rows, with regular cuts discharged in the crop row direction, exhibited a decreased susceptibility to disaggregation.

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Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

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OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the quantitative antibiogram as an epidemiological tool for the prospective typing of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and comparison with ribotyping. METHODS: The method is based on the multivariate analysis of inhibition zone diameters of antibiotics in disk diffusion tests. Five antibiotics were used (erythromycin, clindamycin, cotrimoxazole, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin). Ribotyping was performed using seven restriction enzymes (EcoRV, HindIII, KpnI, PstI, EcoRI, SfuI, and BamHI). SETTING: 1,000-bed tertiary university medical center. RESULTS: During a 1-year period, 31 patients were found to be infected or colonized with MRSA. Cluster analysis of antibiogram data showed nine distinct antibiotypes. Four antibiotypes were isolated from multiple patients (2, 4, 7, and 13, respectively). Five additional antibiotypes were isolated from the remaining five patients. When analyzed with respect to the epidemiological data, the method was found to be equivalent to ribotyping. Among 206 staff members who were screened, six were carriers of MRSA. Both typing methods identified concordant of MRSA types in staff members and in the patients under their care. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative antibiogram was found to be equivalent to ribotyping as an epidemiological tool for typing of MRSA in our setting. Thus, this simple, rapid, and readily available method appears to be suitable for the prospective surveillance and control of MRSA for hospitals that do not have molecular typing facilities and in which MRSA isolates are not uniformly resistant or susceptible to the antibiotics tested.