From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Preparation, maintenance, and use of serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures.

Serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures are free-floating three-dimensional primary cell cultures able to reconstitute spontaneously a histotypic brain architecture to reproduce critical steps of brain development and to reach a high level of structural and functional maturity. This culture system offers, therefore, a unique model for neurotoxicity testing both during the development and at advanced cellular differentiation, and the high number of aggregates available combined with the excellent reproducibility of the cultures facilitates routine test procedures. This chapter presents a detailed description of the preparation, maintenance, and use of these cultures for neurotoxicity studies and a comparison of the developmental characteristics between cultures derived from the telencephalon and cultures derived from the whole brain. For culture preparation, mechanically dissociated embryonic brain tissue is used. The initial cell suspension, composed of neural stem cells, neural progenitor cells, immature postmitotic neurons, glioblasts, and microglial cells, is kept in a serum-free, chemically defined medium under continuous gyratory agitation. Spherical aggregates form spontaneously and are maintained in suspension culture for several weeks. Within the aggregates, the cells rearrange and mature, reproducing critical morphogenic events, such as migration, proliferation, differentiation, synaptogenesis, and myelination. For experimentation, replicate cultures are prepared by the randomization of aggregates from several original flasks. The high yield and reproducibility of the cultures enable multiparametric endpoint analyses, including "omics" approaches.

Edar/Eda interactions regulate enamel knot formation in tooth morphogenesis.

tabby and downless mutant mice have apparently identical defects in teeth, hair and sweat glands. Recently, genes responsible for these spontaneous mutations have been identified. downless (Dl) encodes Edar, a novel member of the tumour necrosis factor (TNF) receptor family, containing the characteristic extracellular cysteine rich fold, a single transmembrane region and a death homology domain close to the C terminus. tabby (Ta) encodes ectodysplasin-A (Eda) a type II membrane protein of the TNF ligand family containing an internal collagen-like domain. As predicted by the similarity in adult mutant phenotype and the structure of the proteins, we demonstrate that Eda and Edar specifically interact in vitro. We have compared the expression pattern of Dl and Ta in mouse development, taking the tooth as our model system, and find that they are not expressed in adjacent cells as would have been expected. Teeth develop by a well recorded series of epithelial-mesenchymal interactions, similar to those in hair follicle and sweat gland development, the structures found to be defective in tabby and downless mice. We have analysed the downless mutant teeth in detail, and have traced the defect in cusp morphology back to initial defects in the structure of the tooth enamel knot at E13. Significantly, the defect is distinct from that of the tabby mutant. In the tabby mutant, there is a recognisable but small enamel knot, whereas in the downless mutant the knot is absent, but enamel knot cells are organised into a different shape, the enamel rope, showing altered expression of signalling factors (Shh, Fgf4, Bmp4 and Wnt10b). By adding a soluble form of Edar to tooth germs, we were able to mimic the tabby enamel knot phenotype, demonstrating the involvement of endogenous Eda in tooth development. We could not, however, reproduce the downless phenotype, suggesting the existence of yet another ligand or receptor, or of ligand-independent activation mechanisms for Edar. Changes in the structure of the enamel knot signalling centre in downless tooth germs provide functional data directly linking the enamel knot with tooth cusp morphogenesis. We also show that the Lef1 pathway, thought to be involved in these mutants, functions independently in a parallel pathway.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Iowa Civil Rights Commission 46 Years of Working Toward a State Free of Discrimination Through Enforcement of Civil Rights Laws Annual Report Fiscal Year 2011

Annual Report for the Iowa Civil Rights Commission

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

Mediation Fast, Free, Confidental, Everyone Wins

Booklet produced by the Iowa Civil Rights Commission

Automated scoring of AFLPs using RawGeno v 2.0, a free R CRAN library.

Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms (AFLPs) are a cheap and efficient protocol for generating large sets of genetic markers. This technique has become increasingly used during the last decade in various fields of biology, including population genomics, phylogeography, and genome mapping. Here, we present RawGeno, an R library dedicated to the automated scoring of AFLPs (i.e., the coding of electropherogram signals into ready-to-use datasets). Our program includes a complete suite of tools for binning, editing, visualizing, and exporting results obtained from AFLP experiments. RawGeno can either be used with command lines and program analysis routines or through a user-friendly graphical user interface. We describe the whole RawGeno pipeline along with recommendations for (a) setting the analysis of electropherograms in combination with PeakScanner, a program freely distributed by Applied Biosystems; (b) performing quality checks; (c) defining bins and proceeding to scoring; (d) filtering nonoptimal bins; and (e) exporting results in different formats.

Pretreatment with statins improves early outcome in patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke: a pleiotropic effect of statins or a beneficial effect of hypercholesterolemia?

Background: Data from different studies suggest a favourable association between pretreatment with statins or hypercholesterolemia and outcome after ischaemic stroke. We examined whether there were differences in in-hospital mortality according to the presence or absence of statin therapy in a large population of first-ever ischaemic stroke patients and assessed the influence of statins upon early death and spontaneous neurological recovery. Methods: In 2,082 consecutive patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke collected from a prospective hospital-based stroke registry during a period of 19 years (1986-2004), statin use or hypercholesterolemia before stroke was documented in 381 patients. On the other hand, favourable outcome defined as grades 0-2 in the modified Rankin scale was recorded in 382 patients. Results: Early outcome was better in the presence of statin therapy or hypercholesterolemia (cholesterol levels were not measured) with significant differences between the groups with and without pretreatment with statins in in-hospital mortality (6% vs 13.3%, P = 0.001) and symptom-free (22% vs 17.5%, P = 0.025) and severe functional limitation (6.6% vs 11.5%, P = 0.002) at hospital discharge, as well as lower rates of infectious respiratory complications during hospitalization. In the logistic regression model, statin therapy was the only variable inversely associated with in-hospital death (odds ratio 0.57) and directly associated with favourable outcome (odds ratio 1.32).

Serum-free aggregate cultures of rat CNS glial cells: biochemical, immunocytochemical and morphological characterization.

Aggregate cultures of mixed glial cells, as well as of enriched astrocytes and oligodendrocytes were prepared, and maintained in serum-free medium for up to 25 days. Biochemical measurements of both neuron-specific and glia-specific enzyme activities showed that these three types of aggregate cultures were virtually devoid of neurons. Astrocyte-enriched cultures were greater than 95% pure, with oligodendrocytes as the only apparent contaminant, whereas oligodendrocyte-enriched cultures still contained a considerable proportion of astrocytes. In all these neuron-free aggregate cultures both astrocytes and oligodendrocytes attained a high degree of maturation. These findings were confirmed by morphological examinations, and by immunofluorescence studies. Furthermore, ultrastructural as well as immunocytochemical investigations using antibodies to myelin basic protein revealed that all three types of glial cell aggregate cultures contained myelin membranes, indicating that the presence of axons is not a prerequisite for the formation of myelin.

Formation and distribution of point defects on a disclination line near a free nematic interface

Point defects of opposite signs can alternately nucleate on the -1/2 disclination line that forms near the free surface of a confined nematic liquid crystal. We show the existence of metastable configurations consisting of periodic repetitions of such defects. These configurations are characterized by a minimal interdefect spacing that is seen to depend on sample thickness and on an applied electric field. The time evolution of the defect distribution suggests that the defects attract at small distances and repel at large distances.