964 resultados para Bayesian Population Modelling
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Robotica 2012: 12th International Conference on Autonomous Robot Systems and Competitions April 11, 2012, Guimarães, Portugal
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RESUMO:Staphylococcus aureus é um dos principais agentes patogénicos humanos, sendo frequentemente associado a infecções nosocomiais e infecções na comunidade. A prevalência de S. aureus resistentes à meticilina (MRSA) em hospitais portugueses é uma das mais elevadas da Europa e tem sido caracterizada extensivamente; contrariamente, a prevalência e epidemiologia de MRSA na comunidade em Portugal não tem sido devidamente seguida. Com o objectivo de compreender as causas possíveis do aumento na frequência de MRSA num dos maiores hospitais centrais portugueses (HSM) ao longo de 17 anos, isolados de MRSA recolhidos em 1993 (n=54) e 2010 (n=180) de pus, sangue e urina foram analisados por PFGE, MLST, tipagem do spa e tipagem de SCCmec. Os resultados mostraram que ocorreu uma mudança global nos tipos clonais predominantes, onde o clone ST22-IVh substituiu os clones, ST239-IIIvar e ST247-I, representando mais de 70% da população actual. Além disso, entre 1993 e 2010 verificou-se um aumento na diversidade genética dos tipos clonais de MRSA. Para determinar a frequência e a natureza clonal de MRSA e S. aureus sensíveis à meticilina (MSSA) isolados de infecções de pele e tecidos moles (SSTI) em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal, 73 amostras foram recolhidas em nove centros de saúde (Rede Médicos Sentinela). Isolou-se um total de 40 S. aureus (55%), dos quais 17,5% eram MRSA. Os isolados de MRSA pertenciam aos clones ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) e ST105-II (n=1), que foram descritos neste estudo como sendo clones de origem hospitalar. Os nossos resultados sugerem que o aumento da frequência de MRSA no HSM pode estar associado à emergência de um clone de MRSA com maior capacidade epidémica. Além disso, verificámos que a principal causa de SSTI em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal são MRSA de origem hospitalar e não MRSA associados à comunidade.------ABSTRACT: Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most important human pathogens, being a major cause of infections worldwide both in the hospital and in the community. In Portugal, the prevalence of methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in hospitals is one of the highest in Europe and has been characterized extensively; contrarily the prevalence and epidemiology of MRSA in the community has not been followed in a meaningful way. To understand the epidemiological events that could explain a steep increase in MRSA frequency in a major Portuguese central hospital (HSM) within a 17 year period, two MRSA collections recovered in 1993 (n=54) and 2010 (n=180) from pus, blood and urine were analyzed by PFGE, MLST, spa and SCCmec typing. The results showed that a major clonal shift occurred, wherein ST22-IVh clone has replaced the previous ST239-IIIvar and ST247-I clones and accounts for more than 70% of the present population. Moreover, an increase in genetic diversity of MRSA clonal types was observed between the two study periods. With the aim of determining the frequency and clonal nature of MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) causing skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in patients attending healthcare centers in Portugal, 73 samples were collected from nine healthcare centers (Medicos Sentinela Network). A total of 40 S. aureus were isolated, accounting for 55% of the SSTI, of which 17.5% were MRSA. MRSA isolates belonged to ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) and ST105-II (n=1) that have also been described in the hospital in an equivalent period. Our results suggest that the increase in MRSA frequency in HSM may be associated to the emergence of a MRSA clone with higher epidemic potential. Moreover, we propose that the spillover of MRSA from the hospital rather than community-associated-MRSA was the main cause of SSTI in persons attending healthcare centers in Portugal.
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Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 36(10) 1605–16
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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.
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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.
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We evaluate the prevalence of intestinal parasites in 504 people and the degree of association between environmental variables and parasites found in population, soil and water in a rural area of Argentina during 2002-2003. A structured survey was used to evaluate the environmental variables and fecal-human, soil and water samples were analyzed. The prevalence of parasites was 45.4%. Most prevalent protozoa were Blastocystis hominis (27.2%) and Giardia lamblia (6.9%), while the most prevalent helminth was Ascaris lumbricoides (3.8%). The analyzed environmental variables showing association (p < 0.05) with presence of parasites in population were: cardboard-tin or wooden house, dirt floor, home or communal water pump, faucet outside the house or public faucet and cesspool or latrine. Parasite forms were found in 82.3% of the soil samples and in 84.2% of the water samples. In both samples we found parasites that were also found in people. In this study we have found deficient sanitary conditions associated with presence of parasites in population and we have evidenced that contaminated soil and water were the source of these parasites.
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Testing problems in diagnosing human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) infection, mostly HTLV-II, have been documented in HIV/AIDS patients. Since December 1998, the Immunology Department of Instituto Adolfo Lutz (IAL) offers HTLV-I/II serology to Public Health Units that attend HTLV high-risk individuals. Two thousand, three hundred and twelve serum samples: 1,393 from AIDS Reference Centers (Group I), and 919 from HTLV out-patient clinics (Group II) were sent to IAL for HTLV-I/II antibodies detection. The majority of them were screened by two enzyme immunoassays (EIAs), and confirmed by Western Blot (WB 2.4, Genelabs). Seven different EIA kits were employed during the period, and according to WB results, the best performance was obtained by EIAs that contain HTLV-I and HTLV-II viral lysates and rgp21 as antigens. Neither 1st and 2nd, nor 3rd generation EIA kits were 100% sensitive in detecting truly HTLV-I/II reactive samples. HTLV-I and HTLV-II prevalence rates of 3.3% and 2.5% were detected in Group I, and of 9.6% and 3.6% in Group II, respectively. High percentages of HTLV-seroindeterminate WB sera were detected in both Groups. The algorithm testing to be employed in HTLV high-risk population from São Paulo, Brazil, needs the use of two EIA kits of different formats and compounds as screening, and because of high seroindeterminate WB, may be another confirmatory assay.
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We consider two Cournot firms, one located in the home country and the other in the foreign country, producing substitute goods for consumption in a third country. We suppose that neither the home government nor the foreign firm know the costs of the home firm, while the foreign firm cost is common knowledge. We determine the separating sequential equilibrium outputs.
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Introduction:Women with antiphospholipid syndrome(APS) may suffer from recurrent miscarriage, fetal death, fetal growth restriction (FGR), pre-eclampsia, placental abruption, premature delivery and thrombosis. Treatment with aspirin and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) combined with close maternal-fetal surveillance can change these outcomes. Objective: To assess maternal and perinatal outcome in a cohort of Portuguese women with primary APS. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 51 women with primary APS followed in our institution (January 1994 to December 2007). Forty one(80.4%) had past pregnancy morbidity and 35.3%(n=18) suffered previous thrombotic events. In their past they had a total of 116 pregnancies of which only 13.79 % resulted in live births. Forty four patients had positive anticardiolipin antibodies and 33 lupus anticoagulant. All women received treatment with low dose aspirin and LMWH. Results: There were a total of 67 gestations (66 single and one multiple). The live birth rate was 85.1%(57/67) with 10 pregnancy failures: seven in the first and second trimesters, one late fetal death and two medical terminations of pregnancy (one APS related). Mean (± SD) birth weight was 2837 ± 812 g and mean gestational age 37 ± 3.3 weeks. There were nine cases of FGR and 13 hypertensive complications(4 HELLP syndromes). 54.4% of the patients delivered by caesarean section. Conclusions: In our cohort, early treatment with aspirin and LMWH combined with close maternal-fetal surveillance was associated with a very high chance of a live newborn.
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The aim of this study was to describe epidemiologic characteristics of intestinal parasites in a population in south of Tehran, Iran. A retrospective cross-sectional study of patients with suspicious intestinal parasitic infections referred to the Zakaria Razi Laboratory in Shahre-Ray, southern Tehran, Iran, was conducted from April 21, 2004 to October 20, 2005. All stool samples were examined and socio-demographic informations were retrieved. Of 4,371 referred patients, 466 (239 males and 227 females) were laboratory diagnosed with intestinal parasites, with a period prevalence of 10.7%. Blastocystis hominis (B. hominis) and Giardia lamblia (G. lamblia) were the most frequent intestinal parasites. More than half of patients aged ³ 18 years had a low level of educational attainment (e.g. illiterate, primary school, high school) (170/331, 54.1%). Further, majority of patients were homemakers (42.3%, 140/331) or workers (28.1%, 93/331) employed in various business settings such as food industry and construction. Findings of this study showed that intestinal parasitic infections are still a major public health challenge in Iran that needs to be addressed. We believe that public education, improving sanitation conditions of underdeveloped areas/communities, community involvement, and supporting evidence-based practice/programs are the major keys to success in preventing the spread of intestinal parasitic infections in Iran.
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Objectivos: A prevalência de Sindroma Metabólica (SM) e diabetes é variável consoante a definição utilizada, assim como com a região geográfica e o grupo étnico estudado. Não existem estudos em indivíduos portugueses com suspeita de doença arterial coronária. Analisámos a prevalência de SM e diabetes nesta população específica de doentes, comparando também definições. Métodos: Incluíram-se no estudo 300 indivíduos, com uma idade media de 64 ± 9 anos, 59% do género masculino, admitidos para angiografia coronária electiva, tendo sido excluídos os doentes com doença cardíaca previamente conhecida. Avaliou-se a prevalência de SM e de diabetes. Resultados: A prevalência ajustada de SM foi de 39,3% (critério NCEP-ATP III), 53,8% (critério IDF) e 48,4% (critério AHA/NHLBI). A prevalência ajustada de diabetes foi de 14,8% pela definição prévia da ADA e de 36.4% com a definição mais recente. A concordância global entre as definições de SM foi de 45,3%, sendo mais elevada entre as definições da AHA/NHLBI e da NCEP-ATP III (Kappa 0,821). A prevalência de SM está altamente dependente da idade em ambos os géneros, sendo mais prevalente no género feminino. A prevalência de diabetes é também dependente da idade, sendo semelhante em ambos os géneros. O componente de SM mais frequente é a hipertensão arterial, seguido pela obesidade abdominal, elevação da glicose, colesterol-HDL baixo e finalmente elevação dos triglicéridos. É também importante referir que 60% dos doentes estavam sob terapêutica hipolipemiante (56,6% com estatinas, 1,7% com fibratos e 1,7% com ambos). A diferença mais significativa entre géneros no que diz respeito aos componentes de SM é a elevada prevalência de obesidade abdominal no género feminino. Conclusões: Nesta população de alto risco, a prevalência de SM é elevada, sendo contudo a prevalência de diabetes semelhante à registada em estudos epidemiológicos na população geral.
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The aim of this study was to estimate the frequency of human toxocariasis in Cauday district, Cajamarca, Peru, using a dot-ELISA test. From June to October 2005, a total of 256 adult subjects were studied. Blood samples were collected for serology by a dot-ELISA test and for hematological examination. Parasitological examination was also carried out in stool samples to check cross-reactions in the dot-ELISA. The frequency observed was 44.92%, with a significant higher proportion of positivity in male subjects. From subjects with positive serology, 45.6% had respiratory symptoms, 40.44% abdominal pain, 32.35% hepatic symptoms, 14.7% cutaneous signs, 13.23% ocular manifestations, 43.38% eosinophilia, and all of these were statistically associated to serology. Among the population evaluated, 90.23% (231/256) were parasitized. From subjects with positive serology, 92.17% had at least one intestinal parasite and the most frequent were: Blastocystis hominis (68.38%), Giardia lamblia (28.68%), Hymenolepis nana (20.0%), Ascaris lumbricoides (15.65%), Entamoeba histolytica/E. dispar (13.24%), Cyclospora cayetanensis (4.41%), Cryptosporidium sp. (1.47%), Enterobius vermicularis (0.87%), Strongyloides stercoralis (0.87%), Taenia sp. (0.87%), and Trichuris trichiura (0.87%). The rate of false positives in the dot-ELISA test was improved by serum absorption each with A. suum antigens, with a decrease of cross-reactions. In conclusion, human toxocariasis is highly frequent in this population and some risk factors like dog/cat ownership, presence of pets within house, and previous history of geophagia were observed in the present study.
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Yellow fever (YF) is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes which occurs in two distinct epidemiological cycles: sylvatic and urban. In the sylvatic cycle, the virus is maintained by monkey's infection and transovarian transmission in vectors. Surveillance of non-human primates is required for the detection of viral circulation during epizootics, and for the identification of unaffected or transition areas. An ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was standardized for estimation of the prevalence of IgG antibodies against yellow fever virus in monkey sera (Alouatta caraya) from the reservoir area of Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Plant, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 570 monkey sera samples were tested and none was reactive to antibodies against yellow fever virus. The results corroborate the epidemiology of yellow fever in the area. Even though it is considered a transition area, there were no reports to date of epizootics or yellow fever outbreaks in humans. Also, entomological investigations did not detect the presence of vectors of this arbovirus infection. ELISA proved to be fast, sensitive, an adequate assay, and an instrument for active search in the epidemiological surveillance of yellow fever allowing the implementation of prevention actions, even before the occurrence of epizootics.
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To observe the effects of the parasitic infection on the biology of B. tenagophila, field and laboratory populations of this mollusk from Itariri, in Vale do Ribeira, Brazil, were experimentally infected. Each mollusk received 10 miracidia of Schistosoma mansoni (SJ lineage) and was observed throughout the parasite's development. The biological variables were compared according to the criteria "group" and "infectious phase". The main damage caused by the parasitic infection manifested itself in reproduction, longevity and lesions on the shell of the mollusks in the patent phase. An infection rate of 58.8% was observed. Microanatomical study of the mollusk's digestive gland and ovotestis revealed the presence of evolving larval forms and cercariae. It was concluded that the effects of the parasitic infection on both populations were moderate, despite the low survival rate of the infected mollusks, the damage did not prevent either reproduction or the elimination of cercariae, which continued for a long time.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)