Parameter estimation and equation formulation in Business Dynamics

System Dynamics enables modelling and simulation of highly non-linear feedback systems to predict future system behaviour. Parameter estimation and equation formulation are techniques in System Dynamics, used to retrieve the values of parameters or the equations for ?ows and/or variables. These techniques are crucial for the annotations and thereafter the simulation. This paper critically examines existing and well established approaches in parameter estimation and equation formulation along with their limitations, identifying performance gaps as well as providing directions for potential future research.

Caveolin-1 single nucleotide polymorphism in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis

Immunosuppression is cornerstone treatment of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis (AAV) but is later complicated by infection, cancer, cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. Caveolin-1 is an essential structural protein for small cell membrane invaginations known as caveolae. Its functional role has been associated with these complications. For the first time, caveolin-1 (CAV1) gene variation is studied in AAV.

Pellino3 ubiquitinates RIP2 and mediates Nod2-induced signaling and protective effects in colitis

Mutations that result in loss of function of Nod2, an intracellular receptor for bacterial peptidoglycan, are associated with Crohn's disease. Here we found that the E3 ubiquitin ligase Pellino3 was an important mediator in the Nod2 signaling pathway. Pellino3-deficient mice had less induction of cytokines after engagement of Nod2 and had exacerbated disease in various experimental models of colitis. Furthermore, expression of Pellino3 was lower in the colons of patients with Crohn's disease. Pellino3 directly bound to the kinase RIP2 and catalyzed its ubiquitination. Loss of Pellino3 led to attenuation of Nod2-induced ubiquitination of RIP2 and less activation of the transcription factor NF-?B and mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs). Our findings identify RIP2 as a substrate for Pellino3 and Pellino3 as an important mediator in the Nod2 pathway and regulator of intestinal inflammation. © 2013 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Differential expression of liver fluke β-tubulin isotypes at selected life cycle stages

We have shown that Fasciola hepatica expresses at least six ß-tubulins in the adult stage of its life cycle, designated F.hep-ß-tub1-6 (Ryan et al., 2008). Here we show that different complements of tubulin isotypes are expressed in different tissues and at different life cycle stages; this information may inform the search for novel anthelmintics. The predominant (as judged by quantitative PCR) isotype transcribed at the adult stage was F.hep-ß-tub1 and immunolocalisation studies revealed that this isotype occurred mainly in mature spermatozoa and vitelline follicles. Quantitative PCR indicated that changes occurred in the transcription levels of ß-tubulin isotypes at certain life cycle stages and may be of importance in the efficacy of benzimidazole-based anthelmintic drugs, but there were no significant differences between the triclabendazole (TCBZ)-susceptible Leon isolate and the TCBZ-resistant Oberon isolate in the transcription levels of each of the isotypes. When three well-characterised isolates with differing susceptibilities to TCBZ were compared, only one amino acid change resulting from a homozygous coding sequence difference (Gly269Ser) in isotype 4 was observed. However, this change was not predicted to alter the overall structure of the protein. In conclusion, these findings indicate that there is tissue-specific expression of tubulin isotypes in the liver fluke but the development of resistance to TCBZ is not associated with changes in its presumed target molecule.

Long-term mass balance of perennial firn and ice in an Alpine cave (Austria):Constraints from radiocarbon-dated wood fragments

Hundsalm ice cave located at 1520 m altitude in a karst region of western Austria contains up to 7-m-thick deposits of snow, firn and congelation ice. Wood fragments exposed in the lower parts of an ice and firn wall were radiocarbon accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dated. Although the local stratigraphy is complex, the 19 individual dates - the largest currently available radiocarbon dataset for an Alpine ice cave - allow to place constraints on the accumulation and ablation history of the cave ice. Most of the cave was either ice free or contained only a small firn and ice body during the 'Roman Warm Period'; dates of three wood fragments mark the onset of firn and ice build-up in the 6th and 7th century ad. In the central part of the cave, the oldest samples date back to the 13th century and record ice growth coeval with the onset of the 'Little Ice Age'. The majority of the ice and firn deposit, albeit compromised by a disturbed stratigraphy, appears to have been formed during the subsequent centuries, supported by wood samples from the 15th to the 17th century. The oldest wood remains found so far inside the ice is from the end of the Bronze Age and implies that local relics of prehistoric ice may be preserved in this cave. The wood record from Hundsalm ice cave shows parallels to the Alpine glacier history of the last three millennia, for example, the lack of preserved wood remains during periods of known glacier minima, and underscores the potential of firn and ice in karst cavities as a long-term palaeoclimate archive, which has been degrading at an alarming rate in recent years. © The Author(s) 2013.

Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

Towards optimal clinical and epidemiological registration of haematological malignancies: Guidelines for recording progressions, transformations and multiple diagnoses

Haematological malignancies (HM) represent over 6% of the total cancer incidence in Europe and affect all ages, ranging between 45% of all cancers in children and 7% in the elderly. Thirty per cent of childhood cancer deaths are due to HM, 8% in the elderly. Their registration presents specific challenges, mainly because HM may transform or progress in the course of the disease into other types of HM. In the context of cancer registration decisions have to be made about classifying subsequent notifications on the same patient as the same tumour (progression), a transformation or a new tumour registration. Allocation of incidence date and method of diagnosis must also be standardised. We developed European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) recommendations providing specific advice for cancer registries to use haematology and molecular laboratories as data sources, conserve the original date of incidence in case of change of diagnosis, make provision for recording both the original as well as transformed tumour and to apply precise rules for recording and counting multiple diagnoses. A reference table advising on codes which reflect a potential transformation or a new tumour is included. This work will help to improve comparability of data produced by population-based cancer registries, which are indispensable for aetiological research, health care planning and clinical research, an increasing important area with the application of targeted therapies.

Holistic design of 8-way combining transformers in SiGe technology for use in millimetre-wave power amplifiers

This paper presents the design of a novel 8-way power-combining transformer for use in mm-wave power amplifier (PA). The combiner exhibits a record low insertion loss of 1.25 dB at 83.5 GHz. A complete circuit comprised of a power splitter, two-stage cascode PA array, a power combiner and input/output matching elements was designed and realized in SiGe technology. Measured gain of at least 16.8 dB was obtained from 76.4 GHz to 85.3 GHz with a peak 19.5 dB at 83 GHz. The prototype delivered 12.5 dBm OP and 14 dBm saturated output power when operated from a 3.2 V DC supply voltage at 78 GHz. © 2013 IEEE.

Modification of Fluorescent Photoinduced Electron Transfer (PET) Sensors/Switches To Produce Molecular Photo-Ionic Triode Action

The fluorophore-spacer₁-receptor₁-spacer₂-receptor₂ system (where receptor₂ alone is photoredox-inactive) shows ionically tunable proton-induced fluorescence off-on switching, which is reminiscent of thermionic triode behavior. This also represents a new extension to modular switch systems based on photoinduced electron transfer (PET) towards the emulation of analogue electronic devices.

Tools for Finding Inconsistencies in Real-world Logic-based Systems

Currently there is extensive theoretical work on inconsistencies in logic-based systems. Recently, algorithms for identifying inconsistent clauses in a single conjunctive formula have demonstrated that practical application of this work is possible. However, these algorithms have not been extended for full knowledge base systems and have not been applied to real-world knowledge. To address these issues, we propose a new algorithm for finding the inconsistencies in a knowledge base using existing algorithms for finding inconsistent clauses in a formula. An implementation of this algorithm is then presented as an automated tool for finding inconsistencies in a knowledge base and measuring the inconsistency of formulae. Finally, we look at a case study of a network security rule set for exploit detection (QRadar) and suggest how these automated tools can be applied.

Predictors and dynamics of postpartum relapses in women with multiple sclerosis

Several studies have shown that pregnancy reduces multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses, which increase in the early postpartum period. Postpartum relapse risk has been predicted by pre-pregnancy disease activity in some studies.

Survival for haematological malignancies in Europe between 1997 and 2008 by region and age: results of EUROCARE-5, a population-based study

Background: More effective treatments have become available for haematological malignancies from the early 2000s, but few large-scale population-based studies have investigated their effect on survival. Using EUROCARE data, and HAEMACARE morphological groupings, we aimed to estimate time trends in population-based survival for 11 lymphoid and myeloid malignancies in 20 European countries, by region and age. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, we included patients (aged 15 years and older) diagnosed with haematological malignancies, diagnosed up to Dec 31, 2007, and followed up to Dec 31, 2008. We used data from the 30 cancer registries (across 20 countries) that provided continuous incidence and good quality data from 1992 to 2007. We used a hybrid approach to estimate age-standardised and age-specific 5-year relative survival, for each malignancy, overall and for five regions (UK, and northern, central, southern, and eastern Europe), and four 3-year periods (1997–99, 2000–02, 2003–05, 2006–08). For each malignancy, we also estimated the relative excess risk of death during the 5 years after diagnosis, by period, age, and region. Findings: We analysed 560 444 cases. From 1997–99 to 2006–08 survival increased for most malignancies: the largest increases were for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (42·0% [95% CI 40·7–43·4] to 55·4% [54·6–56·2], p<0·0001), follicular lymphoma (58·9% [57·3–60·6] to 74·3% [72·9–75·5], p<0·0001), chronic myeloid leukaemia (32·3% [30·6–33·9] to 54·4% [52·5–56·2], p<0·0001), and acute promyelocytic leukaemia (50·1% [43·7–56·2] to 61·9% [57·0–66·4], p=0·0038, estimate not age-standardised). Other survival increases were seen for Hodgkin's lymphoma (75·1% [74·1–76·0] to 79·3% [78·4–80·1], p<0·0001), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (66·1% [65·1–67·1] to 69·0% [68·1–69·8], p<0·0001), multiple myeloma/plasmacytoma (29·8% [29·0–30·6] to 39·6% [38·8–40·3], p<0·0001), precursor lymphoblastic leukaemia/lymphoma (29·8% [27·7–32·0] to 41·1% [39·0–43·1], p<0·0001), acute myeloid leukaemia (excluding acute promyelocytic leukaemia, 12·6% [11·9–13·3] to 14·8% [14·2–15·4], p<0·0001), and other myeloproliferative neoplasms (excluding chronic myeloid leukaemia, 70·3% [68·7–71·8] to 74·9% [73·8–75·9], p<0·0001). Survival increased slightly in southern Europe, more in the UK, and conspicuously in northern, central, and eastern Europe. However, eastern European survival was lower than that for other regions. Survival decreased with advancing age, and increased with time only slightly in patients aged 75 years or older, although a 10% increase in survival occurred in elderly patients with follicular lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and chronic myeloid leukaemia. Interpretation: These trends are encouraging. Widespread use of new and more effective treatment probably explains much of the increased survival. However, the persistent differences in survival across Europe suggest variations in the quality of care and availability of the new treatments. High-resolution studies that collect data about stage at diagnosis and treatments for representative samples of cases could provide further evidence of treatment effectiveness and explain geographic variations in survival.