Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program, 2007

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 » (Gas6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and¦organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at¦admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.¦Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the "Sepsis¦Cohorte Romande". Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in¦percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.¦Results: Non-survivors (n=21) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n=73) (median¦258% vs 164%, IQR 194 and 117 respectively) (p=0.0027). Gas6 correlated positively with¦different cytokines and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area.¦In patients with septic shock (n=66), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement¦had a specificity of 67% and a sensitivity of 81% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area¦was 0.75. Positive and negative predictive values were 57% and 87%, respectively.¦Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict¦mortality in patients with septic shock. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis¦marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated. Our observation should¦be further investigated in larger prospective clinical trials.

BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions with predictor variables. BIOMOD is implemented in R and is a freeware, open source, package

Insulin-like growth factor I (IGF I) stimulates DNA synthesis in fetal rat brain cell cultures.

Addition of insulin, IGF I or IGF II to serum-free cultures of fetal rat brain cells (gestation day 15/16) significantly stimulates DNA synthesis. The dose-response curves show that IGF I is more potent than insulin; half maximal stimulation of [3H]thymidine incorporation is obtained at about 0.4 nM IGF I and 14 nM insulin, respectively. Cultures initiated 2 days later (gestation day 17/18) showed a decreased responsiveness to both peptides. No additive effect was observed after combined addition of both peptides at near-maximal doses. Both peptides show a latency of action of about 12-18 h. In the presence of either IGF or insulin, neuronal as well as glial enzymes are increased, suggesting that neuronal and glial precursor cell division is influenced. IGF I and IGF II interact with a specific binding site for which insulin competes very weakly; however IGF I and IGF II bind with relatively high affinity to the insulin specific binding site. The present results support the hypothesis that both insulin and IGF stimulate mitotic activity by interacting with specific somatomedin receptors and suggest a physiological role of IGF in the developing brain.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Estudo do Ruído Sísmico no Arquipélago de Cabo Verde

Traditionally the study of Earth's internal structure has been based on analysis of seismic waves recorded during the occurrence of earthquakes. Recently, some researchers have shown to be possible to use ambient seismic noise (generally generated by ocean storms) to obtain dispersion curves with satisfactory results. Moreover, the use of ambient seismic noise measurement has advantages because they are independent of the earthquake-station geometry. This study aims to determine the dispersion curves of Rayleigh waves from the analysis of ambient seismic noise records, obtained in Cape Verde archipelago, whose origin and structure has attracted interest from several researchers. Analyzing the data collected between November 2007 and September 2008, Green's functions were determined. The analysis of these functions allowed to construct energy diagrams and to measure dispersion curves of group velocities between pairs of stations.

Predição da hidroquímica da água (qualidade de água) usando sondagens electromagnéticas transientes (TEM)

This work aims the applicability of the Transient electromagnetic method at an arid and semiarid environmental condition in the Santiago Island – Cape Verde. Some seashore areas of this island show an increasing salt contamination of the groundwater. The main objective of present work is to relate this water-quality condition with parameters taken from the transient sounding’s data. In this context, transient soundings have been acquired from 2005 through 2009, at several chosen valleys near the sea, in a mean rate of one field campaign each year. The first phase of this work was the understanding of the geophysical method details, problems and applicability, as the chosen and acquired equipment was the first one to be permanently available to the Portuguese geosciences community. This first phase was also accomplished with field tests. Interpretation of the transient sounding’s data curves were done by application of 1-D inversion methods already developed and published, as also with quasi 2-D and quasi 3-D inversion algorithms, where applicability was feasible. This was the second phase. The 2-D and 3-D approximation results are satisfactory and promising; although a higher spatial sounding’s density should certainly allow for better results. At phase three, these results have been compared against the available lithologic, hydrologic and hydrochemical data, in the context of Santiago’s island settings. The analyses of these merged data showed that two distinct origins for the observed inland groundwater salinity are possible; seashore shallow mixing with contemporary seawater and mixing with a deep and older salty layer from up flow groundwater. Relations between the electric resistivity and the salt water content distribution were found for the surveyed areas. To this environment condition, the electromagnetic transient method proved to be a reliable and powerful technique. The groundwater quality can be accessed beyond the few available watershed points, which have an uneven distribution.

Label-free cytotoxicity screening assay by digital holographic microscopy

Abstract We introduce a label-free technology based on digital holographic microscopy (DHM) with applicability for screening by imaging, and we demonstrate its capability for cytotoxicity assessment using mammalian living cells. For this first high content screening compatible application, we automatized a digital holographic microscope for image acquisition of cells using commercially available 96-well plates. Data generated through both label-free DHM imaging and fluorescence-based methods were in good agreement for cell viability identification and a Z'-factor close to 0.9 was determined, validating the robustness of DHM assay for phenotypic screening. Further, an excellent correlation was obtained between experimental cytotoxicity dose-response curves and known IC values for different toxic compounds. For comparable results, DHM has the major advantages of being label free and close to an order of magnitude faster than automated standard fluorescence microscopy.

Fermat's treatise on quadrature: A new reading

The Treatise on Quadrature of Fermat (c. 1659), besides containing the first known proof of the computation of the area under a higher parabola, R x+m/n dx, or under a higher hyperbola, R x-m/n dx with the appropriate limits of integration in each case , has a second part which was not understood by Fermat s contemporaries. This second part of the Treatise is obscure and difficult to read and even the great Huygens described it as'published with many mistakes and it is so obscure (with proofs redolent of error) that I have been unable to make any sense of it'. Far from the confusion that Huygens attributes to it, in this paper we try to prove that Fermat, in writing the Treatise, had a very clear goal in mind and he managed to attain it by means of a simple and original method. Fermat reduced the quadrature of a great number of algebraic curves to the quadrature of known curves: the higher parabolas and hyperbolas of the first part of the paper. Others, he reduced to the quadrature of the circle. We shall see how the clever use of two procedures, quite novel at the time: the change of variables and a particular case of the formulaof integration by parts, provide Fermat with the necessary tools to square very easily curves as well-known as the folium of Descartes, the cissoid of Diocles or the witch of Agnesi.

Evolutionary rates of Jurassic ammonites in relation to sea-level fluctuations

An analysis is presented of the diversity and faunal turnover of Jurassic ammonites related to transgressive /regressive events. The data set contained 400 genera and 1548 species belonging to 67 ammonite zones covering the entire Jurassic System. These data were used in the construction of faunal turnover curves and ammonite diversities, that correlate with sea-level fluctuation curves. Twenty-four events of ammonite faunal turnover are analyzed throughout the Jurassic. The most important took place at the Sinemurian-Carixian boundary, latest Carixian-Middle Domerian, Domerian-Toarcian boundary, latest Middle Toarcian-Late Toarcian, Toarcian-Aalenian boundary, latest Aalenian-earliest Bajocian, latest Early Bajocian-earliest Late Bojocian, Early Bathonian-Middle Bathonian boundary, latest Middle Bathonian-earliest Late Bathonian, latest Bathonian-Early Callovian, earliest Early Oxfordian-Middle Oxfordian, earliest Late Oxfordian-latest Oxfordian, latest Early Kimmeridgian, Late Kimmeridgian, middle Early Tithonian and Early Tithonian-Late Tithonian boundary. More than 75 percent of these turnovers correlate with regressive-transgressive cycles in the Exxon, and /or Hallam's sea-level curves. Inmost cases the extinction events coincide with regressive intervals, whereas origination and radiation events are related to transgressive cycles. The turnovers frequently coincide with major or minor discontinuities in the Subbetic basin (Betic Cordillera).

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

Automated quantitative pupillometry for the prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Sedation and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) delay neurological responses and might reduce the accuracy of clinical examination to predict outcome after cardiac arrest (CA). We examined the accuracy of quantitative pupillary light reactivity (PLR), using an automated infrared pupillometry, to predict outcome of post-CA coma in comparison to standard PLR, EEG, and somato-sensory evoked potentials (SSEP). METHODS: We prospectively studied over a 1-year period (June 2012-June 2013) 50 consecutive comatose CA patients treated with TH (33 °C, 24 h). Quantitative PLR (expressed as the % of pupillary response to a calibrated light stimulus) and standard PLR were measured at day 1 (TH and sedation; on average 16 h after CA) and day 2 (normothermia, off sedation: on average 46 h after CA). Neurological outcome was assessed at 90 days with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), dichotomized as good (CPC 1-2) versus poor (CPC 3-5). Predictive performance was analyzed using area under the ROC curves (AUC). RESULTS: Patients with good outcome [n = 23 (46 %)] had higher quantitative PLR than those with poor outcome [n = 27; 16 (range 9-23) vs. 10 (1-30) % at day 1, and 20 (13-39) vs. 11 (1-55) % at day 2, both p < 0.001]. Best cut-off for outcome prediction of quantitative PLR was <13 %. The AUC to predict poor outcome was higher for quantitative than for standard PLR at both time points (day 1, 0.79 vs. 0.56, p = 0.005; day 2, 0.81 vs. 0.64, p = 0.006). Prognostic accuracy of quantitative PLR was comparable to that of EEG and SSEP (0.81 vs. 0.80 and 0.73, respectively, both p > 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative PLR is more accurate than standard PLR in predicting outcome of post-anoxic coma, irrespective of temperature and sedation, and has comparable prognostic accuracy than EEG and SSEP.

Longevity and fecundity of Dichroplus maculipennis (Orthoptera, Acrididae) at non-outbreaking and outbreaking situations

Dichroplus maculipennis is one of the most characteristic and damaging grasshopper species of Argentina, mainly in areas of the Pampas and Patagonia regions. We estimated and compared the longevity and fecundity of adult female D. maculipennis under controlled conditions (30ºC, 14L:10D, 40% RH) from individuals collected as last instar nymphs (VI) in the field and with a known recent history of low and high density conditions. Densities of D. maculipennis at the collecting sites were 0.95 individuals per m² in 2006 and 46 ind/m² in 2009, representing non-outbreaking and outbreaking situations, respectively. Adult female longevity in 2006 (67.96 ± 3.2 days) was significantly higher (p < 0.05) than in 2009 (37.44 ± 1.98 days). The number of egg-pods per female was 3.32 ± 0.44 for 2006 and 1.62 ± 0.26 for 2009. The average fecundity in 2006 (89.29 ± 11.9 eggs/female) was significantly greater (p < 0.05) than that in 2009 (36.27 ± 5.82 eggs/female). While it was observed that the oviposition rate was higher in 2006, this difference was not significant (p > 0.05). The fecundity curves showed that the highest values were at weeks 11 and 13 for the 2006 females, and at week 6 for those of 2009. Since the daily oviposition rate at low and high densities was not significantly different, the diminished fecundity rate at high density is attributable to their reduced longevity.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.