Análisis de sistemas dinámicos y complejos en la Liga Profesional de Balonmano de España = Complex and dynamical systems analysis in Spanish Professional Handball League

El propósito de esta tesis fue estudiar el rendimiento ofensivo de los equipos de balonmano de élite cuando se considera el balonmano como un sistema dinámico complejo no lineal. La perspectiva de análisis dinámica dependiente del tiempo fue adoptada para evaluar el rendimiento de los equipos durante el partido. La muestra general comprendió los 240 partidos jugados en la temporada 2011-2012 de la liga profesional masculina de balonmano de España (Liga ASOBAL). En el análisis posterior solo se consideraron los partidos ajustados (diferencia final de goles ≤ 5; n = 142). El estado del marcador, la localización del partido, el nivel de los oponentes y el periodo de juego fueron incorporados al análisis como variables situacionales. Tres estudios compusieron el núcleo de la tesis. En el primer estudio, analizamos la coordinación entre las series temporales que representan el proceso goleador a lo largo del partido de cada uno de los dos equipos que se enfrentan. Autocorrelaciones, correlaciones cruzadas, doble media móvil y transformada de Hilbert fueron usadas para el análisis. El proceso goleador de los equipos presentó una alta consistencia a lo largo de todos los partidos, así como fuertes modos de coordinación en fase en todos los contextos de juego. Las únicas diferencias se encontraron en relación al periodo de juego. La coordinación en los procesos goleadores de los equipos fue significativamente menor en el 1er y 2º periodo (0–10 min y 10–20 min), mostrando una clara coordinación creciente a medida que el partido avanzaba. Esto sugiere que son los 20 primeros minutos aquellos que rompen los partidos. En el segundo estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales (efecto inmediato, a corto y a medio plazo) de los tiempos muertos en el rendimiento goleador de los equipos. Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple fueron empleados para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron incrementos de 0.59, 1.40 y 1.85 goles para los periodos que comprenden la primera, tercera y quinta posesión de los equipos que pidieron el tiempo muerto. Inversamente, se encontraron efectos significativamente negativos para los equipos rivales, con decrementos de 0.50, 1.43 y 2.05 goles en los mismos periodos respectivamente. La influencia de las variables situacionales solo se registró en ciertos periodos de juego. Finalmente, en el tercer estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales de las exclusiones de los jugadores sobre el rendimiento goleador de los equipos, tanto para los equipos que sufren la exclusión (inferioridad numérica) como para los rivales (superioridad numérica). Se emplearon modelos de regresión lineal múltiple para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron efectos negativos significativos en el número de goles marcados por los equipos con un jugador menos, con decrementos de 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62 y 0.57 goles para los periodos que comprenden el primer, segundo, tercer, cuarto y quinto minutos previos y posteriores a la exclusión. Para los rivales, los resultados mostraron efectos positivos significativos, con incrementos de la misma magnitud en los mismos periodos. Esta tendencia no se vio afectada por el estado del marcador, localización del partido, nivel de los oponentes o periodo de juego. Los incrementos goleadores fueron menores de lo que se podría esperar de una superioridad numérica de 2 minutos. Diferentes teorías psicológicas como la paralización ante situaciones de presión donde se espera un gran rendimiento pueden ayudar a explicar este hecho. Los últimos capítulos de la tesis enumeran las conclusiones principales y presentan diferentes aplicaciones prácticas que surgen de los tres estudios. Por último, se presentan las limitaciones y futuras líneas de investigación. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the offensive performance of elite handball teams when considering handball as a complex non-linear dynamical system. The time-dependent dynamic approach was adopted to assess teams’ performance during the game. The overall sample comprised the 240 games played in the season 2011-2012 of men’s Spanish Professional Handball League (ASOBAL League). In the subsequent analyses, only close games (final goal-difference ≤ 5; n = 142) were considered. Match status, game location, quality of opposition, and game period situational variables were incorporated into the analysis. Three studies composed the core of the thesis. In the first study, we analyzed the game-scoring coordination between the time series representing the scoring processes of the two opposing teams throughout the game. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, double moving average, and Hilbert transform were used for analysis. The scoring processes of the teams presented a high consistency across all the games as well as strong in-phase modes of coordination in all the game contexts. The only differences were found when controlling for the game period. The coordination in the scoring processes of the teams was significantly lower for the 1st and 2nd period (0–10 min and 10–20 min), showing a clear increasing coordination behavior as the game progressed. This suggests that the first 20 minutes are those that break the game-scoring. In the second study, we analyzed the temporal effects (immediate effect, short-term effect, and medium-term effect) of team timeouts on teams’ scoring performance. Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed increments of 0.59, 1.40 and 1.85 goals for the periods within the first, third and fifth timeout ball possessions for the teams that requested the timeout. Conversely, significant negative effects on goals scored were found for the opponent teams, with decrements of 0.59, 1.43 and 2.04 goals for the same periods, respectively. The influence of situational variables on the scoring performance was only registered in certain game periods. Finally, in the third study, we analyzed the players’ exclusions temporal effects on teams’ scoring performance, for the teams that suffer the exclusion (numerical inferiority) and for the opponents (numerical superiority). Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed significant negative effects on the number of goals scored for the teams with one less player, with decrements of 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62, and 0.57 goals for the periods within the previous and post one, two, three, four and five minutes of play. For the opponent teams, the results showed positive effects, with increments of the same magnitude in the same game periods. This trend was not affected by match status, game location, quality of opposition, or game period. The scoring increments were smaller than might be expected from a 2-minute numerical playing superiority. Psychological theories such as choking under pressure situations where good performance is expected could contribute to explain this finding. The final chapters of the thesis enumerate the main conclusions and underline the main practical applications that arise from the three studies. Lastly, limitations and future research directions are described.

A study of data analysis techniques. Application to personal data analysis in the context of social networks

En los últimos años la sociedad está experimentando una serie de cambios. Uno de estos cambios es la datificación (“datafication” en inglés). Este término puede ser definido como la transformación sistemática de aspectos de la vida cotidiana de las personas en datos procesados por ordenadores. Cada día, a cada minuto y a cada segundo, cada vez que alguien emplea un dispositivo digital,hay datos siendo guardados en algún lugar. Se puede tratar del contenido de un correo electrónico pero también puede ser el número de pasos que esa persona ha caminado o su historial médico. El simple almacenamiento de datos no proporciona un valor añadido por si solo. Para extraer conocimiento de los datos, y por tanto darles un valor, se requiere del análisis de datos. La ciencia de los datos junto con el análisis de datos se está volviendo cada vez más popular. Hoy en día, se pueden encontrar millones de web APIs estadísticas; estas APIs ofrecen la posibilidad de analizar tendencias o sentimientos presentes en las redes sociales o en internet en general. Una de las redes sociales más populares, Twitter, es pública. Cada mensaje, o tweet, publicado puede ser visto por cualquier persona en el mundo, siempre y cuando posea una conexión a internet. Esto hace de Twitter un medio interesante a la hora de analizar hábitos sociales o perfiles de consumo. Es en este contexto en que se engloba este proyecto. Este trabajo, combinando el análisis estadístico de datos y el análisis de contenido, trata de extraer conocimiento de tweets públicos de Twitter. En particular tratará de establecer si el género es un factor influyente en las relaciones entre usuarios de Twitter. Para ello, se analizará una base de datos que contiene casi 2.000 tweets. En primer lugar se determinará el género de los usuarios mediante web APIs. En segundo lugar se empleará el contraste de hipótesis para saber si el género influye en los usuarios a la hora de relacionarse con otros usuarios. Finalmente se construirá un modelo estadístico para predecir el comportamiento de los usuarios de Twitter en relación a su género.

On the role of global flow instability analysis in closed loop flow control

Control of linear flow instabilities has been demonstrated to be an effective theoretical flow control methodology, capable of modifying transitional flow on canonical geometries such as the plane channel and the flat-plate boundary layer.

Quality and productivity analysis in a very small enterprise using TSPi

This article shows the benefits of developing a software project using TSPi in a "Very Small Enterprise" based in quality and productivity measures. An adapted process from the current process based on the TSPi was defined and the team was trained in it. The pilot project had schedule and budget constraints. The workaround began by gathering historical data from previous projects in order to get a measurement repository, and then the project metrics were collected. Finally, the process, product and quality improvements were verified

Fuel poverty analysis in three spanish autonomous regions. Some retrofitting policy considerations

A person is to be regarded as living ‘in fuel poverty’ if he is a member of a household living on a lower income in a home which cannot be kept warm at a reasonable cost. This situation is mainly triggered by three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy invoices. Some European countries have already made some advantages towards officially defining fuel poverty in their countries. Nevertheless, in Spain only some research has been done and an official definition of the term is yet to come. This research explores the relation among households’ income, energy expenditure and housing stock in three autonomous regions in Spain in order to evaluate the housing stock of the fuel poor as well as to identify those households more in need. The results of the research allow establishing energy retrofitting priorities of existing housing stock as well as identifying current retrofitting policies limitations on order to tackle fuel poverty.

Prospectives of monitoring biological activity in a red-legged partridge incubator with a carbon dioxide probe

This study focuses on the relationship between CO2 production and the ultimate hatchability of the incubation. A total amount of 43316 eggs of red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) were supervised during five actual incubations: three in 2012 and two in 2013. The CO2 concentration inside the incubator was monitored over a 20-day period, showing sigmoidal growth from ambient level (428 ppm) up to 1700 ppm in the incubation with the highest hatchability. Two sigmoid growth models (logistic and Gompertz) were used to describe the CO2 production by the eggs, with the result that the logistic model was a slightly better fit (r2=0.976 compared to r2=0.9746 for Gompertz). A coefficient of determination of 0.997 between the final CO2 estimation (ppm) using the logistic model and hatchability (%) was found.

Movement analysis in infancy may be useful for early diagnosis of autism

All of the 17 autistic children studied in the present paper showed disturbances of movement that with our methods could be detected clearly at the age of 4–6 months, and sometimes even at birth. We used the Eshkol–Wachman Movement Analysis System in combination with still-frame videodisc analysis to study videos obtained from parents of children who had been diagnosed as autistic by conventional methods, usually around 3 years old. The videos showed their behaviors when they were infants, long before they had been diagnosed as autistic. The movement disorders varied from child to child. Disturbances were revealed in the shape of the mouth and in some or all of the milestones of development, including, lying, righting, sitting, crawling, and walking. Our findings support the view that movement disturbances play an intrinsic part in the phenomenon of autism, that they are present at birth, and that they can be used to diagnose the presence of autism in the first few months of life. They indicate the need for the development of methods of therapy to be applied from the first few months of life in autism.

Human PEX19: cDNA cloning by functional complementation, mutation analysis in a patient with Zellweger syndrome, and potential role in peroxisomal membrane assembly

At least 11 complementation groups (CGs) have been identified for the peroxisome biogenesis disorders (PBDs) such as Zellweger syndrome, for which seven pathogenic genes have been elucidated. We have isolated a human PEX19 cDNA (HsPEX19) by functional complementation of peroxisome deficiency of a mutant Chinese hamster ovary cell line, ZP119, defective in import of both matrix and membrane proteins. This cDNA encodes a hydrophilic protein (Pex19p) comprising 299 amino acids, with a prenylation motif, CAAX box, at the C terminus. Farnesylated Pex19p is partly, if not all, anchored in the peroxisomal membrane, exposing its N-terminal part to the cytosol. A stable transformant of ZP119 with HsPEX19 was morphologically and biochemically restored for peroxisome biogenesis. HsPEX19 expression also restored peroxisomal protein import in fibroblasts from a patient (PBDJ-01) with Zellweger syndrome of CG-J. This patient (PBDJ-01) possessed a homozygous, inactivating mutation: a 1-base insertion, A764, in a codon for Met255, resulted in a frameshift, inducing a 24-aa sequence entirely distinct from normal Pex19p. These results demonstrate that PEX19 is the causative gene for CG-J PBD and suggest that the C-terminal part, including the CAAX homology box, is required for the biological function of Pex19p. Moreover, Pex19p is apparently involved at the initial stage in peroxisome membrane assembly, before the import of matrix protein.

Half tetrad analysis in alfalfa using multiple restriction fragment length polymorphism markers.

A maximum likelihood approach of half tetrad analysis (HTA) based on multiple restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers was developed. This procedure estimates the relative frequencies of 2n gametes produced by mechanisms genetically equivalent to first division restitution (FDR) or second division restitution and simultaneously locates the centromere within a linkage group of RFLP marker loci. The method was applied to the diploid alfalfa clone PG-F9 (2n = 2x = 16) previously selected because of its high frequency of 2n egg production. HTA was based on four RFLP loci for which PG-F9 was heterozygous with codominant alleles that were absent in the tetraploid tester. Models including three linked and one unlinked RFLP loci were developed and tested. Results of the HTA showed that PG-F9 produced 6% FDR and 94% second division restitution 2n eggs. Information from a marker locus belonging to one linkage group was used to more precisely locate the centromere on a different linkage group. HTA, together with previous cytological analysis, indicated that in PG-F9, FDR 2n eggs are likely produced by diplospory, a mechanism common among apomictic species. The occurrence of FDR 2n eggs in plant species and their importance for crop evolution and breeding is discussed together with the potential applicability of multilocus HTA in the study of reproductive mutants.

A role of Hsp60 in autoimmune diabetes: analysis in a transgenic model.

A pathogenic role for self-reactive cells against the stress protein Hsp60 has been proposed as one of the events leading to autoimmune destruction of pancreatic beta cells in the diabetes of nonobese diabetic (NOD) mice. To examine this hypothesis, we generated transgenic NOD mice carrying a murine Hsp60 transgene driven by the H-2E alpha class II promoter. This would be expected to direct expression of the transgene to antigen-presenting cells including those in the thymus and so induce immunological tolerance by deletion. Detailed analysis of Hsp60 expression revealed that the endogenous gene is itself expressed strongly in thymic medullary epithelium (and weakly in cortex) yet fails to induce tolerance. Transgenic mice with retargeted Hsp60 showed overexpression of the gene in thymic cortical epithelium and in bone marrow-derived cells. Analysis of spontaneous T-cell responses to a panel of self and heterologous Hsp60 antigens showed that tolerance to the protein had not been induced, although responses to an immunodominant 437-460 epitope implicated in disease were suppressed, probably indicating an epitope shift. This correlated with changes in disease susceptibility: insulitis in transgenic mice was substantially reduced so that pathology rarely progressed beyond periislet infiltration. This was reflected in a substantial reduction in hyperglycemia and disease. These data indicate that T cells specific for some epitopes of murine Hsp60 are likely to be involved in the islet-cell destruction that occurs in NOD mice.

Direct structure analysis in protein electron crystallography: crystallographic phases for halorhodopsin to 6-A resolution.

The crystal structure of halorhodopsin was determined in (centrosymmetric) projection to 6-A resolution by direct methods that use only the amplitudes of the electron diffraction pattern. A multisolution technique was used to generate initial 15-A-resolution basis sets, and after selection of the best phase set (by the closest match of magnitude of Eobs and magnitude of Ecalc), annealing of individual reflections was used to improve its accuracy. The Sayre equation was then used to expand the phase terms to 10 A, followed again by phase annealing. A final expansion with the Sayre equation enlarged this corrected phase set to 6 A. When the condition of density flatness was used to locate the best phase solution after each extension, a final structure could be observed that was quite similar to the one found earlier by analysis of electron micrographs.

Isolation and molecular characterization of a human T-cell lymphotropic virus type II (HTLV-II), subtype B, from a healthy Pygmy living in a remote area of Cameroon: an ancient origin for HTLV-II in Africa.

We report characterization of a human T-cell lymphotropic virus type II (HTLV-II) isolated from an interleukin 2-dependent CD8 T-cell line derived from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of a healthy, HTLV-II-seropositive female Bakola Pygmy, aged 59, living in a remote equatorial forest area in south Cameroon. This HTLLV-II isolate, designated PYGCAM-1, reacted in an indirect immunofluorescence assay with HTLV-II and HTLV-I polyclonal antibodies and with an HTLV-I/II gp46 monoclonal antibody but not with HTLV-I gag p19 or p24 monoclonal antibodies. The cell line produced HTLV-I/II p24 core antigen and retroviral particles. The entire env gene (1462 bp) and most of the long terminal repeat (715 bp) of the PYGCAM-1 provirus were amplified by the polymerase chain reaction using HTLV-II-specific primers. Comparison with the long terminal repeat and envelope sequences of prototype HTLV-II strains indicated that PYGCAM-1 belongs to the subtype B group, as it has only 0.5-2% nucleotide divergence from HTLV-II B strains. The finding of antibodies to HTLV-II in sera taken from the father of the woman in 1984 and from three unrelated members of the same population strongly suggests that PYGCAM-1 is a genuine HTLV-II that has been present in this isolated population for a long time. The low genetic divergence of this African isolate from American isolates raises questions about the genetic variability over time and the origin and dissemination of HTLV-II, hitherto considered to be predominantly a New World virus.

Application of principal component analysis in phase-shifting photoelasticity

Principal component analysis phase shifting (PCA) is a useful tool for fringe pattern demodulation in phase shifting interferometry. The PCA has no restrictions on background intensity or fringe modulation, and it is a self-calibrating phase sampling algorithm (PSA). Moreover, the technique is well suited for analyzing arbitrary sets of phase-shifted interferograms due to its low computational cost. In this work, we have adapted the standard phase shifting algorithm based on the PCA to the particular case of photoelastic fringe patterns. Compared with conventional PSAs used in photoelasticity, the PCA method does not need calibrated phase steps and, given that it can deal with an arbitrary number of images, it presents good noise rejection properties, even for complicated cases such as low order isochromatic photoelastic patterns. © 2016 Optical Society of America.