Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

Are local economic development incentives promoting job growth? An empirical case study

At a time when cities are competing with one another to attract or retain jobs within a globalizing economy, city governments are providing an array of financial incentives to stimulate job growth and retain existing jobs, particularly in high cost locations. This paper provides the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of datasets on economic development incentives in New York City over the last fifteen years. The evidence on job retention and creation is mixed. Although many companies do not meet their agreed-upon job targets in absolute terms, the evidence suggests that companies receiving subsidies outperform their respective industries in terms of employment growth, that is, the grow more, or decline less. We emphasize that this finding is difficult to interpret, since firms receiving incentives may not be representative of the industry as a whole. In other words, their above-average performance may simply reflect the fact that the Economic Development Corporation (EDC) selects economically promising companies within manufacturing (or other industries) when granting incentives. At the same time, it is also possible that receiving incentives helps these companies to become stronger.

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

The causes and effects of depreciation in office buildings: a ten year update

This paper publishes the results of the 1996 study, which repeats a cross-section analysis of around 125 City of London office buildings, and examines the longitudinal data contributed by a sample of 56 unrefurbished properties common to the 1986 and 1996 City of London datasets. An estimate of the average rate of rental and capital value depreciation is made; the effect of age is shown not to be straight-line; and the causes if depreciation are measured. The results are compared with the 1986 City of London findings.

International investment, ownership and risk in the City of London office market: an analysis of trends 1972-1997

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk.

The compact city and the residential developer

Although the compact city is widely promoted as a sustainable form of urban development, little attention has been paid to the feasilibity of its implementation in practice. This paper addresses this isse by presenting the findings of a questionnaire study into the viability of the compact city from the perspective of the volume housebuilder. The study shows that, although well aware of the inherent problems witht the compact city, most were generally positive about the need to redirect more development back into urban areas. In addition, they suggested a large number of strategies for change, including i) a role for public sector agencies in overcoming the condstraints on urban sites; ii) the need for an upward reveision of acceptable densities in local plans and design guides; and iii) the creation of a separate, or revised, Use Class Order to enable mixed use development to compete on a level playing field. It is concluded that the residential developer could be engaged in the process of urban containment provided proposals for implementing the compact city of devised. The need for continuing research to test the actual effects of specific schemes is emphasised.

Lichens used as monitors of atmospheric pollution around Agadir (Southwestern Morocco) - a case study predating lead-free gasoline

More than 30 epiphytic lichens, collected in Agadir (Morroco) and along a 150-km transect from the Atlantic Ocean eastward, were analyzed for their metal content and lead isotopic composition. This dataset was used to evaluate atmospheric metal contamination and the impact of the city on the surrounding area. The concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn (average ± 1 SD) were 20.9 ± 15.2 μg g−1, 13.8 ± 9.0 μg g−1, and 56.6 ± 26.6 μg g−1, respectively, with the highest values observed in lichens collected within the urban area. The 206Pb/207Pb and 208Pb/207Pb ratios in the lichens varied from 1.146 to 1.186 and from 2.423 to 2.460, respectively. Alkyllead-gasoline sold in Morocco by the major petrol companies gave isotopic ratios of 206Pb/207Pb = 1.076–1.081 and 208Pb/207Pb = 2.348–2.360. These new, homogeneous values for gasoline-derived lead improve and update the scarce isotopic database of potential lead sources in Morocco, and may be of great value to future environmental surveys on the presence of lead in natural reservoirs, where it persists over time (e.g., soils and sediments). The interest of normalizing metal concentrations in lichens to concentrations of a lithogenic element is demonstrated by the consistency of the results thus obtained with lead isotopic ratios. Leaded gasoline contributed less than 50% of the total amount of lead accumulated in lichens, even in areas subject to high vehicular traffic. This strongly suggests that the recent banishment of leaded gasoline in Morocco will not trigger a drastic improvement in air quality, at least in Agadir.

Effects of urban ventilation patterns on the carbon monoxide concentration in a high-rise mega city

Carbon monoxide (CO) concentration data from 1999–2006, monitored at 5 different pollution stations in a high-rise mega city (Hong Kong), were collected and investigated. The spatio-temporal characteristics of urban CO concentration profiles were obtained. A new approach was put forward to examine the relationship between urban CO concentration and different wind flow patterns. Rather than relying on the meteorological data from a single weather station, usually adopted in previous studies, four weather stations on the boundary of Hong Kong territory were used in the present study so as to identify 16 different wind flow patterns, among which a typical urban heat island circulation (UHIC) can be distinguished. Higher concentrations were observed to be associated with the flow pattern of an inflow from Lau Fau Shan (LFS) station which is located in the northwest of Hong Kong. This suggests that the ability of dilution for north-to-west wind is relatively weak due to the pollutants carried from outside Hong Kong. The effectiveness of wind speed on the alleviation of urban concentration is dependent on the initial concentration of the approaching wind. The increase of wind speed of north-to-west wind from 0 m/s to 6 m/s has little effect on the reduction of urban CO concentration, especially on the non-roadside stations. By contrast, for the southerly marine wind, pollution concentration decreases sharply with an increase in the wind speed. It was also found that urban heat island circulation (UHIC) is conducive of the accumulation of pollutants, especially at night. There exists a positive correlation between CO concentration and UHI intensity. This correlation is much stronger at night compared to during the day. Keywords: urban pollution monitoring, urban ventilation pattern, urban heat island circulation, mega city

Passive urban ventilation by combined buoyancy-driven slope flow and wall flow: Parametric CFD studies on idealized city models

This paper reports the results of a parametric CFD study on idealized city models to investigate the potential of slope flow in ventilating a city located in a mountainous region when the background synoptic wind is absent. Examples of such a city include Tokyo in Japan, Los Angeles and Phoenix in the US, and Hong Kong. Two types of buoyancy-driven flow are considered, i.e., slope flow from the mountain slope (katabatic wind at night and anabatic wind in the daytime), and wall flow due to heated/cooled urban surfaces. The combined buoyancy-driven flow system can serve the purpose of dispersing the accumulated urban air pollutants when the background wind is weak or absent. The microscopic picture of ventilation performance within the urban structures was evaluated in terms of air change rate (ACH) and age of air. The simulation results reveal that the slope flow plays an important role in ventilating the urban area, especially in calm conditions. Katabatic flow at night is conducive to mitigating the nocturnal urban heat island. In the present parametric study, the mountain slope angle and mountain height are assumed to be constant, and the changing variables are heating/cooling intensity and building height. For a typical mountain of 500 m inclined at an angle of 20° to the horizontal level, the interactive structure is very much dependent on the ratio of heating/cooling intensity as well as building height. When the building is lower than 60 m, the slope wind dominates. When the building is as high as 100 m, the contribution from the urban wall flow cannot be ignored. It is found that katabatic wind can be very beneficial to the thermal environment as well as air quality at the pedestrian level. The air change rate for the pedestrian volume can be as high as 300 ACH.

Intake fraction of nonreactive motor vehicle exhaust in HongKong

The intake fraction (iF) of nonreactive constituents of exhaust from mobile vehicles in the urban area of HongKong is investigated using available monitoring data for carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of opportunity. Correcting for regional transport of carbon monoxide into HongKong, the annual-average iF for nonreactive motor vehicle emissions within the city is estimated to be around 270 per million. This estimated iF is much higher than values previously reported for vehicle emissions in US urban areas, Helsinki and Beijing, and somewhat lower than those reported for a densely populated street canyon in downtown Manhattan, New York City, or for emissions into indoor environments. The reported differences in intakefractions in various cities mainly result from the differences in local population densities. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the influence of upwind transport of pollutants when using ambient data to estimate iF for an urban area. For vehicleexhaust in HongKong, it is found that the in/near vehicle microenvironment contributes similarly to the indoor home environment when accounting for the overall iF for children and adults. Keywords Intakefraction; Vehicle emission; Regional pollutant transport; Carbon monoxide; Exposure

Trends in office rents in the City of London: 1867-1959

This paper details the construction and analysis of a dataset of office lettings, which is used to produce a rent index for the City of London spanning the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It advances prior research through application of a modern version of the repeat measures technique and in coverage of years where office rents have not been previously measured. Results show that there has been no real growth in rents over the period as a whole. However, there have been distinct phases of rental growth and decline that correspond with the wider economic fortunes of the City.

CO intake fraction and city ventilation rate in Hong Kong

Given the background of serious urban pollution in Hong Kong, the intake fraction (iF) of carbon monoxide due to mobile vehicles in urban area of Hong Kong is investigated and estimated to be 600 per million, much higher than those in US urban areas, Helsinki and even Beijing, indicating the high exposure level to urban pollutants in Hong Kong. The dependence of iF to the metrological factors is also discussed. Easterly and northerly winds contribute most to the total iF value. A new method of predicting ventilation rate for a city based on iF concept is proposed. City ventilation rates for different cities are calculated and compared. It is found that Hong Kong has to face the fact that it has the lowest ventilation rate and ACH.

Effect of mountain breeze in ventilating the city under calm and neutral atmospheric environment: Interaction of airflow structures and ventilation efficiency

Many modern cities locate in the mountainous areas, like Hong Kong, Phoenix City and Los Angles. It is confirmed in the literature that the mountain wind system developed by differential heating or cooling can be very beneficial in ventilating the city nearby and alleviating the UHI effect. However, the direct interaction of mountain wind with the natural-convection circulation due to heated urban surfaces has not been studied, to our best knowledge. This kind of unique interaction of two kinds of airflow structures under calm and neutral atmospheric environment is investigated in this paper by CFD approach. A physical model comprising a simple mountain and three long building blocks (forming two street canyons) is firstly developed. Different airflow structures are identified within the conditions of different mountain-building height ratios (R=Hm/Hb) by varying building height but fixing mountain height. It is found that the higher ventilation rate in the street canyons is expected in the cases of smaller mountain-building ratios, indicating the stronger natural convection due to increasing heated building surfaces. However, there is the highest air change rate (ACH) in the lowest-building-height case and most of the air is advective into the street canyon through the top open area, highlighting the important role played by the mountain wind. In terms of the ventilation efficiency, it is shown that the smallest R case enjoys the best air change efficiency followed by the highest R case, while the worst ventilative street canyons occur at the middle R case. In the end, a gap across the streets is introduced in the modeling. The existence of the gap can greatly channel the mountain wind and distribute the air into streets nearby. Thus the ACH can be doubled and air quality can be significantly improved.