Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

Instability Analysis of Incompressible Open Cavity Flows

El problema del flujo sobre una cavidad abierta ha sido estudiado en profundidad en la literatura, tanto por el interés académico del problema como por sus aplicaciones prácticas en gran variedad de problemas ingenieriles, como puede ser el alojamiento del tren de aterrizaje de aeronaves, o el depósito de agua de aviones contraincendios. Desde hace muchos a˜nos se estudian los distintos tipos de inestabilidades asociadas a este problema: los modos bidimensionales en la capa de cortadura, y los modos tridimensionales en el torbellino de recirculación principal dentro de la cavidad. En esta tesis se presenta un estudio paramétrico completo del límite incompresible del problema, empleando la herramienta de estabilidad lineal conocida como BiGlobal. Esta aproximación permite contemplar la estabilidad global del flujo, y obtener tanto la forma como las características de los modos propios del problema físico, sean estables o inestables. El estudio realizado permite caracterizar con gran detalle todos los modos relevantes, así como la envolvente de estabilidad en el espacio paramétrico del problema incompresible (Mach nulo, variación de Reynolds, espesor de capa límite incidente, relación altura/profundidad de la cavidad, y longitud característica de la perturbación en la dirección transversal). A la luz de los resultados obtenidos se proponen una serie de relaciones entre los parámetros y características de los modos principales, como por ejemplo entre el Reynolds crítico de un modo, y la longitud característica del mismo. Los resultados numéricos se contrastan con una campaña experimental, siendo la principal conclusión de dicha comparación que los modos lineales están presentes en el flujo real saturado, pero que existen diferencias notables en frecuencia entre las predicciones teóricas y los experimentos. Para intentar determinar la naturaleza de dichas diferencias se realiza una simulación numérica directa tridimensional, y se utiliza un algoritmo de DMD (descomposición dinámica de modos) para describir el proceso de saturación. ABSTRACT The problem of the flow over an open cavity has been studied in depth in the literature, both for being an interesting academical problem and due to the multitude of industrial applications, like the landing gear of aircraft, or the water deposit of firefighter airplanes. The different types of instabilities appearing in this flow studied in the literature are two: the two-dimensional shear layer modes, and the three-dimensional modes that appear in the main recirculating vortex inside the cavity. In this thesis a parametric study in the incompressible limit of the problem is presented, using the linear stability analysis known as BiGlobal. This approximation allows to obtain the global stability behaviour of the flow, and to capture both the morphological features and the characteristics of the eigenmodes of the physical problem, whether they are stable or unstable. The study presented here characterizes with great detail all the relevant eigenmodes, as well as the hypersurface of instability on the parameter space of the incompressible problem (Mach equal to zero, and variation of the Reynolds number, the incoming boundary layer thickness, the length to depth aspect ratio of the cavity and the spanwise length of the perturbation). The results allow to construct parametric relations between the characteristics of the leading eigenmodes and the parameters of the problem, like for example the one existing between the critical Reynolds number and its characteristic length. The numerical results presented here are compared with those of an experimental campaign, with the main conclusion of said comparison being that the linear eigenmode are present in the real saturated flow, albeit with some significant differences in the frequencies of the experiments and those predicted by the theory. To try to determine the nature of those differences a three-dimensional direct numerical simulation, analyzed with Dynamic Mode Decomposition algorithm, was used to describe the process of saturation.

Stability analysis of dam failures. Application to aurul tailing pond in Baia Mare (Romania)

La gestión de estériles de una explotación minera es un punto clave en el desarrollo económico de una actividad extractiva, y en especial, del entorno natural y social en el que se emplaza dicho proyecto. La minería de metales preciosos lleva asociada la construcción de balsas de residuos muy peligrosos, fruto de su proceso extractivo, como por ejemplo la cianuración en el caso del oro. Para un correcto funcionamiento de dichos emplazamientos es necesario escoger correctamente el método constructivo a partir de estudios de reconocimiento previos, como estudios de estabilidad geotécnica, contexto geológico de la zona, sismicidad, hidrología, etc. Así mismo, han de llevarse a cabo unas exhaustivas medidas de control y vigilancia para asegurar las condiciones de seguridad exigidas. La ruptura de la balsa de decantación de Aurul S.A. en Baia Mare (Rumania) el 30 de Enero del año 2000 ha sido escogido como caso de estudio de estabilidad de diques. ABSTRACT Tailing's management of a mining exploitation is a key point in the economical development of the extractive activity and, especially, of the natural and social environment of the site. Precious metals mining has high hazardous embankment construction associated, product of its extractive process, i.e. gold cyanidation. A correct operation of those sites makes necessary to choose a suitable construction method, based on previous studies as geotechnical stability studies, geological context of the area, seismicity, hydrology, etc. At the same time, exhaustive control and monitoring must be carried out in order to assure the required safety conditions. Aurul's decantation pond failure in Baia Mare (Romania), on 30th January 2000, has been chosen as a stability analysis case-study.

An Analysis Of The Recommended Knowledge For The Software Project Management Discipline

According to the PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge), project management is “the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet the project requirements” [1]. Project Management has proven to be one of the most important disciplines at the moment of determining the success of any project [2][3][4]. Given that many of the activities covered by this discipline can be said that are “horizontal” for any kind of domain, the importance of acknowledge the concepts and practices becomes even more obvious. The specific case of the projects that fall in the domain of Software Engineering are not the exception about the great influence of Project Management for their success. The critical role that this discipline plays in the industry has come to numbers. A report by McKinsey & Co [4] shows that the establishment of programs for the teaching of critical skills of project management can improve the performance of the project in time and costs. As an example of the above, the reports exposes: “One defense organization used these programs to train several waves of project managers and leaders who together administered a portfolio of more than 1,000 capital projects ranging in Project management size from $100,000 to $500 million. Managers who successfully completed the training were able to cut costs on most projects by between 20 and 35 percent. Over time, the organization expects savings of about 15 percent of its entire baseline spending”. In a white paper by the PMI (Project Management Institute) about the value of project management [5], it is stated that: “Leading organizations across sectors and geographic borders have been steadily embracing project management as a way to control spending and improve project results”. According to the research made by the PMI for the paper, after the economical crisis “Executives discovered that adhering to project management methods and strategies reduced risks, cut costs and improved success rates—all vital to surviving the economic crisis”. In every elite company, a proper execution of the project management discipline has become a must. Several members of the software industry have putted effort into achieving ways of assuring high quality results from projects; many standards, best practices, methodologies and other resources have been produced by experts from different fields of expertise. In the industry and the academic community, there is a continuous research on how to teach better software engineering together with project management [4][6]. For the general practices of Project Management the PMI produced a guide of the required knowledge that any project manager should have in their toolbox to lead any kind of project, this guide is called the PMBOK. On the side of best practices 10 and required knowledge for the Software Engineering discipline, the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) developed the SWEBOK (Software Engineering Body of Knowledge) in collaboration with software industry experts and academic researchers, introducing into the guide many of the needed knowledge for a 5-year expertise software engineer [7]. The SWEBOK also covers management from the perspective of a software project. This thesis is developed to provide guidance to practitioners and members of the academic community about project management applied to software engineering. The way used in this thesis to get useful information for practitioners is to take an industry-approved guide for software engineering professionals such as the SWEBOK, and compare the content to what is found in the PMBOK. After comparing the contents of the SWEBOK and the PMBOK, what is found missing in the SWEBOK is used to give recommendations on how to enrich project management skills for a software engineering professional. Recommendations for members of the academic community on the other hand, are given taking into account the GSwE2009 (Graduated Software Engineering 2009) standard [8]. GSwE2009 is often used as a main reference for software engineering master programs [9]. The standard is mostly based on the content of the SWEBOK, plus some contents that are considered to reinforce the education of software engineering. Given the similarities between the SWEBOK and the GSwE2009, the results of comparing SWEBOK and PMBOK are also considered valid to enrich what the GSwE2009 proposes. So in the end the recommendations for practitioners end up being also useful for the academic community and their strategies to teach project management in the context of software engineering.

Analysis of the static and dynamic behaviour of hydraulic fills

En la actualidad existe un gran conocimiento en la caracterización de rellenos hidráulicos, tanto en su caracterización estática, como dinámica. Sin embargo, son escasos en la literatura estudios más generales y globales de estos materiales, muy relacionados con sus usos y principales problemáticas en obras portuarias y mineras. Los procedimientos semi‐empíricos para la evaluación del efecto silo en las celdas de cajones portuarios, así como para el potencial de licuefacción de estos suelos durantes cargas instantáneas y terremotos, se basan en estudios donde la influencia de los parámetros que los rigen no se conocen en gran medida, dando lugar a resultados con considerable dispersión. Este es el caso, por ejemplo, de los daños notificados por el grupo de investigación del Puerto de Barcelona, la rotura de los cajones portuarios en el Puerto de Barcelona en 2007. Por estos motivos y otros, se ha decidido desarrollar un análisis para la evaluación de estos problemas mediante la propuesta de una metodología teórico‐numérica y empírica. El enfoque teórico‐numérico desarrollado en el presente estudio se centra en la determinación del marco teórico y las herramientas numéricas capaces de solventar los retos que presentan estos problemas. La complejidad del problema procede de varios aspectos fundamentales: el comportamiento no lineal de los suelos poco confinados o flojos en procesos de consolidación por preso propio; su alto potencial de licuefacción; la caracterización hidromecánica de los contactos entre estructuras y suelo (camino preferencial para el flujo de agua y consolidación lateral); el punto de partida de los problemas con un estado de tensiones efectivas prácticamente nulo. En cuanto al enfoque experimental, se ha propuesto una metodología de laboratorio muy sencilla para la caracterización hidromecánica del suelo y las interfaces, sin la necesidad de usar complejos aparatos de laboratorio o procedimientos excesivamente complicados. Este trabajo incluye por tanto un breve repaso a los aspectos relacionados con la ejecución de los rellenos hidráulicos, sus usos principales y los fenómenos relacionados, con el fin de establecer un punto de partida para el presente estudio. Este repaso abarca desde la evolución de las ecuaciones de consolidación tradicionales (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English & Hussey, 1967) y las metodologías de cálculo (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) hasta las contribuciones en relación al efecto silo (Ranssen, 1985) (Ravenet, 1977) y sobre el fenómeno de la licuefacción (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). Con motivo de este estudio se ha desarrollado exclusivamente un código basado en el método de los elementos finitos (MEF) empleando el programa MATLAB. Para ello, se ha esablecido un marco teórico (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz & Shiomi, 1984) (Segura & Caron, 2004) y numérico (Zienkiewicz & Taylor, 1989) (Huerta & Rodríguez, 1992) (Segura & Carol, 2008) para resolver problemas de consolidación multidimensional con condiciones de contorno friccionales, y los correspondientes modelos constitutivos (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fiu & Liu, 2011). Asimismo, se ha desarrollado una metodología experimental a través de una serie de ensayos de laboratorio para la calibración de los modelos constitutivos y de la caracterización de parámetros índice y de flujo (Castro, 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies, 2006). Para ello se han empleado arenas de Hostun como material (relleno hidráulico) de referencia. Como principal aportación se incluyen una serie de nuevos ensayos de corte directo para la caracterización hidromecánica de la interfaz suelo – estructura de hormigón, para diferentes tipos de encofrados y rugosidades. Finalmente, se han diseñado una serie de algoritmos específicos para la resolución del set de ecuaciones diferenciales de gobierno que definen este problema. Estos algoritmos son de gran importancia en este problema para tratar el procesamiento transitorio de la consolidación de los rellenos hidráulicos, y de otros efectos relacionados con su implementación en celdas de cajones, como el efecto silo y la licuefacciones autoinducida. Para ello, se ha establecido un modelo 2D axisimétrico, con formulación acoplada u‐p para elementos continuos y elementos interfaz (de espesor cero), que tratan de simular las condiciones de estos rellenos hidráulicos cuando se colocan en las celdas portuarias. Este caso de estudio hace referencia clara a materiales granulares en estado inicial muy suelto y con escasas tensiones efectivas, es decir, con prácticamente todas las sobrepresiones ocasionadas por el proceso de autoconsolidación (por peso propio). Por todo ello se requiere de algoritmos numéricos específicos, así como de modelos constitutivos particulares, para los elementos del continuo y para los elementos interfaz. En el caso de la simulación de diferentes procedimientos de puesta en obra de los rellenos se ha requerido la modificacion de los algoritmos empleados para poder así representar numéricamente la puesta en obra de estos materiales, además de poder realizar una comparativa de los resultados para los distintos procedimientos. La constante actualización de los parámetros del suelo, hace también de este algoritmo una potente herramienta que permite establecer un interesante juego de perfiles de variables, tales como la densidad, el índice de huecos, la fracción de sólidos, el exceso de presiones, y tensiones y deformaciones. En definitiva, el modelo otorga un mejor entendimiento del efecto silo, término comúnmente usado para definir el fenómeno transitorio del gradiente de presiones laterales en las estructuras de contención en forma de silo. Finalmente se incluyen una serie de comparativas entre los resultados del modelo y de diferentes estudios de la literatura técnica, tanto para el fenómeno de las consolidaciones por preso propio (Fredlund, Donaldson & Gitirana, 2009) como para el estudio del efecto silo (Puertos del Estado, 2006, EuroCódigo (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009), etc.). Para concluir, se propone el diseño de un prototipo de columna de decantación con paredes friccionales, como principal propuesta de futura línea de investigación. Wide research is nowadays available on the characterization of hydraulic fills in terms of either static or dynamic behavior. However, reported comprehensive analyses of these soils when meant for port or mining works are scarce. Moreover, the semi‐empirical procedures for assessing the silo effect on cells in floating caissons, and the liquefaction potential of these soils during sudden loads or earthquakes are based on studies where the underlying influence parameters are not well known, yielding results with significant scatter. This is the case, for instance, of hazards reported by the Barcelona Liquefaction working group, with the failure of harbor walls in 2007. By virtue of this, a complex approach has been undertaken to evaluate the problem by a proposal of numerical and laboratory methodology. Within a theoretical and numerical scope, the study is focused on the numerical tools capable to face the different challenges of this problem. The complexity is manifold; the highly non‐linear behavior of consolidating soft soils; their potentially liquefactable nature, the significance of the hydromechanics of the soil‐structure contact, the discontinuities as preferential paths for water flow, setting “negligible” effective stresses as initial conditions. Within an experimental scope, a straightforward laboratory methodology is introduced for the hydromechanical characterization of the soil and the interface without the need of complex laboratory devices or cumbersome procedures. Therefore, this study includes a brief overview of the hydraulic filling execution, main uses (land reclamation, filled cells, tailing dams, etc.) and the underlying phenomena (self‐weight consolidation, silo effect, liquefaction, etc.). It comprises from the evolution of the traditional consolidation equations (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English, & Hussey, 1967) and solving methodologies (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) to the contributions in terms of silo effect (Ranssen, 1895) (Ravenet, 1977) and liquefaction phenomena (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). The novelty of the study lies on the development of a Finite Element Method (FEM) code, exclusively formulated for this problem. Subsequently, a theoretical (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz and Shiomi, 1984) (Segura and Carol, 2004) and numerical approach (Zienkiewicz and Taylor, 1989) (Huerta, A. & Rodriguez, A., 1992) (Segura, J.M. & Carol, I., 2008) is introduced for multidimensional consolidation problems with frictional contacts and the corresponding constitutive models (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fu & Liu, 2011). An experimental methodology is presented for the laboratory test and material characterization (Castro 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies 2006) using Hostun sands as reference hydraulic fill. A series of singular interaction shear tests for the interface calibration is included. Finally, a specific model algorithm for the solution of the set of differential equations governing the problem is presented. The process of consolidation and settlements involves a comprehensive simulation of the transient process of decantation and the build‐up of the silo effect in cells and certain phenomena related to self‐compaction and liquefaction. For this, an implementation of a 2D axi‐syimmetric coupled model with continuum and interface elements, aimed at simulating conditions and self‐weight consolidation of hydraulic fills once placed into floating caisson cells or close to retaining structures. This basically concerns a loose granular soil with a negligible initial effective stress level at the onset of the process. The implementation requires a specific numerical algorithm as well as specific constitutive models for both the continuum and the interface elements. The simulation of implementation procedures for the fills has required the modification of the algorithm so that a numerical representation of these procedures is carried out. A comparison of the results for the different procedures is interesting for the global analysis. Furthermore, the continuous updating of the model provides an insightful logging of variable profiles such as density, void ratio and solid fraction profiles, total and excess pore pressure, stresses and strains. This will lead to a better understanding of complex phenomena such as the transient gradient in lateral pressures due to silo effect in saturated soils. Interesting model and literature comparisons for the self‐weight consolidation (Fredlund, Donaldson, & Gitirana, 2009) and the silo effect results (Puertos del Estado (2006), EuroCode (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009)). This study closes with the design of a decantation column prototype with frictional walls as the main future line of research.

A nonlinear analysis of laying a floating pipeline on the seabed

In this article, a model for the determination of displacements, strains, and stresses of a submarine pipeline during its construction is presented. Typically, polyethylene outfall pipelines are the ones treated by this model. The process is carried out from an initial floating situation to the final laying position on the seabed. The following control variables are considered in the laying process: the axial load in the pipe, the flooded inner length, and the distance of the control barge from the coast. External loads such as self-weight, dead loads, and forces due to currents and small waves are also taken into account.This paper describes both the conceptual framework for the proposed model and its practical application in a real engineering situation. The authors also consider how the model might be used as a tool to study how sensitive the behavior of the pipeline is to small changes in the values of the control variables. A detailed description of the actions is considered, especially the ones related to the marine environment such as buoyancy, current, and sea waves. The structural behavior of the pipeline is simulated in the framework of a geometrically nonlinear dynamic analysis. The pipeline is assumed to be a two-dimensional Navier_Bernoulli beam. In the nonlinear analysis an updated Lagrangian formulation is used, and special care is taken regarding the numerical aspects of sea bed contact, follower forces due to external water pressures, and dynamic actions. The paper concludes by describing the implementation of the proposed techniques, using the ANSYS computer program with a number of subroutines developed by the authors. This implementation permits simulation of the two-dimensional structural pipe behavior of the whole construction process. A sensitivity analysis of the bending moments, axial forces, and stresses for different values of the control variables is carried out. Using the techniques described, the engineer may optimize the construction steps in the pipe laying process

One-dimensional linear analysis of the liquid injection or removal in a liquid bridge

The filling-withdrawal process of a long liquid bridge is analyzed using a one-dimensional linearized model for the dynamics of the liquid column. To carry out this study, a well-known standard operational method (Laplace transform) has been used, and time variation of both liquid velocity field and interface shape are obtained.

Code assessment and modelling for Design Basis Accident analysis of the European Sodium Fast Reactor design. Part II: Optimised core and representative transients analysis

The new reactor concepts proposed in the Generation IV International Forum require the development and validation of computational tools able to assess their safety performance. In the first part of this paper the models of the ESFR design developed by several organisations in the framework of the CP-ESFR project were presented and their reliability validated via a benchmarking exercise. This second part of the paper includes the application of those tools for the analysis of design basis accident (DBC) scenarios of the reference design. Further, this paper also introduces the main features of the core optimisation process carried out within the project with the objective to enhance the core safety performance through the reduction of the positive coolant density reactivity effect. The influence of this optimised core design on the reactor safety performance during the previously analysed transients is also discussed. The conclusion provides an overview of the work performed by the partners involved in the project towards the development and enhancement of computational tools specifically tailored to the evaluation of the safety performance of the Generation IV innovative nuclear reactor designs.

Modal analysis of buildings : quantification of uncertainties and model updating

Una estructura vibra con la suma de sus infinitos modos de vibración, definidos por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, formas modales y coeficientes de amortiguamiento). Estos parámetros se pueden identificar a través del Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). Así, un equipo de investigación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ha identificado las propiedades modales de un edificio de hormigón armado en Madrid con el método Identificación de los sub-espacios estocásticos (SSI). Para completar el estudio dinámico de este edificio, se ha desarrollado un modelo de elementos finitos (FE) de este edificio de 19 plantas. Este modelo se ha calibrado a partir de su comportamiento dinámico obtenido experimentalmente a través del OMA. Los objetivos de esta tesis son; (i) identificar la estructura con varios métodos de SSI y el uso de diferentes ventanas de tiempo de tal manera que se cuantifican incertidumbres de los parámetros modales debidos al proceso de estimación, (ii) desarrollar FEM de este edificio y calibrar este modelo a partir de su comportamiento dinámico, y (iii) valorar la bondad del modelo. Los parámetros modales utilizados en esta calibración han sido; espesor de las losas, densidades de los materiales, módulos de elasticidad, dimensiones de las columnas y las condiciones de contorno de la cimentación. Se ha visto que el modelo actualizado representa el comportamiento dinámico de la estructura con una buena precisión. Por lo tanto, este modelo puede utilizarse dentro de un sistema de monitorización estructural (SHM) y para la detección de daños. En el futuro, podrá estudiar la influencia de los agentes medioambientales, tales como la temperatura o el viento, en los parámetros modales. A structure vibrates according to the sum of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). These parameters can be identified through Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). Thus, a research team of the Technical University of Madrid has identified the modal properties of a reinforced-concrete-frame building in Madrid using the Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) method and a time domain technique for the OMA. To complete the dynamic study of this building, a finite element model (FE) of this 19-floor building has been developed throughout this thesis. This model has been updated from its dynamic behavior identified by the OMA. The objectives of this thesis are to; (i) identify the structure with several SSI methods and using different time blocks in such a way that uncertainties due to the modal parameter estimation are quantified, (ii) develop a FEM of this building and tune this model from its dynamic behavior, and (iii) Assess the quality of the model, the modal parameters used in this updating process have been; thickness of slabs, material densities, modulus of elasticity, column dimensions and foundation boundary conditions. It has been shown that the final updated model represents the structure with a very good accuracy. Thus, this model might be used within a structural health monitoring framework (SHM). The study of the influence of changing environmental factors (such as temperature or wind) on the model parameters might be considered as a future work.

Analysis of the problems associated with dynamic interaction between train, track and structure at transition zones

El gran desarrollo experimentado por la alta velocidad en los principales países de la Unión Europea, en los últimos 30 años, hace que este campo haya sido y aún sea uno de los principales referentes en lo que a investigación se refiere. Por otra parte, la aparición del concepto super − alta velocidad hace que la investigación en el campo de la ingeniería ferroviaria siga adquiriendo importancia en los principales centros de investigación de los países en los que se desea implantar este modo de transporte, o en los que habiendo sido ya implantado, se pretenda mejorar. Las premisas de eficacia, eficiencia, seguridad y confort, que este medio de transporte tiene como razón de ser pueden verse comprometidas por diversos factores. Las zonas de transición, definidas en la ingeniería ferroviaria como aquellas secciones en las que se produce un cambio en las condiciones de soporte de la vía, pueden afectar al normal comportamiento para el que fue diseñada la infraestructura, comprometiendo seriamente los estándares de eficiencia en el tiempo de viaje, confort de los pasajeros y aumentando considerablemente los costes de mantenimiento de la vía, si no se toman las medidas oportunas. En esta tesis se realiza un estudio detallado de la zonas de transición, concretamente de aquellas en las que existe una cambio en la rigidez vertical de la vía debido a la presencia de un marco hidráulico. Para realizar dicho estudio se lleva a cabo un análisis numérico de interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura, con un modelo bidimensional de elemento finitos, calibrado experimentalmente, en estado de tensión plana. En este análisis se tiene en cuenta el efecto de las irregularidades de la vía y el comportamiento mecánico de la interfaz suelo-estructura, con el objetivo de reproducir de la forma más real posible el efecto de interacción entre el vehículo, la vía y la estructura. Otros efectos como la influencia de la velocidad del tren y los asientos diferenciales, debidos a deformaciones por consolidación de los terraplenes a ambos lados el marco hidráulico, son también analizados en este trabajo. En esta tesis, los cálculos de interacción se han llevado a cabo en dos fases diferentes. En la primera, se ha considerado una interacción sencilla debida al paso de un bogie de un tren Eurostar. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase se han denominado cálculos a corto plazo. En la segunda, se ha realizado un análisis considerando múltiples pasos de bogie del tren Eurostar, conformando un análisis de degradación en el que se tiene en cuenta, en cada ciclo, la deformación de la capa de balasto. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase, son denominados en el texto como cálculos a largo plazo. Los resultados analizados muestran que la utilización de los denominados elementos de contacto es fundamental cuando se desea estudiar la influencia de asientos diferenciales, especialmente en transiciones terraplén-estructura en las que la cuña de cimentación no llega hasta la base de cimentación de la estructura. Por otra parte, tener en cuenta los asientos del terraplén, es sumamente importante, cuando se desea realizar un análisis de degradación de la vía ya que su influencia en la interacción entre el vehículo y la vía es muy elevada, especialmente para valores altos de velocidad del tren. En cuanto a la influencia de las irregularidades de la vía, en los cálculos efectuados, se revela que su importancia es muy notable, siendo su influencia muy destacada cuanto mayor sea la velocidad del tren. En este punto cabe destacar la diferencia de resultados derivada de la consideración de perfiles de irregularidades de distinta naturaleza. Los resultados provenientes de considerar perfiles artificiales son en general muy elevados, siendo estos más apropiados para realizar estudios de otra índole, como por ejemplo de seguridad al descarrilamiento. Los resultados provenientes de perfiles reales, dados por diferentes Administradores ferroviarios, presentan resultados menos elevados y más propios del problema analizar. Su influencia en la interacción dinámica entre el vehículo y la vía es muy importante, especialmente para velocidades elevadas del tren. Además el fenómeno de degradación conocido como danza de traviesas, asociado a zonas de transición, es muy susceptible a la consideración de irregularidades de la vía, tal y como se desprende de los cálculos efectuados a largo plazo. The major development experienced by high speed in the main countries of the European Union, in the last 30 years, makes railway research one of the main references in the research field. It should also be mentioned that the emergence of the concept superhigh − speed makes research in the field of Railway Engineering continues to gain importance in major research centers in the countries in which this mode of transportation is already implemented or planned to be implemented. The characteristics that this transport has as rationale such as: effectiveness, efficiency, safety and comfort, may be compromised by several factors. The transition zones are defined in railway engineering as a region in which there is an abrupt change of track stiffness. This stiffness variation can affect the normal behavior for which the infrastructure has been designed, seriously compromising efficiency standards in the travel time, passenger comfort and significantly increasing the costs of track maintenance, if appropriate measures are not taken. In this thesis a detailed study of the transition zones has been performed, particularly of those in which there is a change in vertical stiffness of the track due to the presence of a reinforced concrete culvert. To perform such a study a numerical interaction analysis between the vehicle, the track and the structure has been developed. With this purpose a two-dimensional finite element model, experimentally calibrated, in a state of plane stress, has been used. The implemented numerical models have considered the effects of track irregularities and mechanical behavior of soil-structure interface, with the objective of reproducing as accurately as possible the dynamic interaction between the vehicle the track and the structure. Other effects such as the influence of train speed and differential settlement, due to secondary consolidation of the embankments on both sides of culvert, have also been analyzed. In this work, the interaction analysis has been carried out in two different phases. In the first part a simple interaction due to the passage of a bogie of a Eurostar train has been considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named short-term analysis. In the second part, a multi-load assessment considering an Eurostar train bogie moving along the transition zone, has been performed. The objective here is to simulate a degradation process in which vertical deformation of the ballast layer was considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named long-term analysis. The analyzed results show that the use of so-called contact elements is essential when one wants to analyze the influence of differential settlements, especially in embankment-structure transitions in which the wedge-shaped backfill does not reach the foundation base of the structure. Moreover, considering embankment settlement is extremely important when it is desired to perform an analysis of track degradation. In these cases the influence on the interaction behaviour between the vehicle and the track is very high, especially for higher values of speed train. Regarding the influence of the track irregularities, this study has proven that the track’s dynamic response is heavily influenced by the irregularity profile and that this influence is more important for higher train velocities. It should also be noted that the difference in results derived from consideration of irregularities profiles of different nature. The results coming from artificial profiles are generally very high, these might be more appropriate in order to study other effects, such as derailment safety. Results from real profiles, given by the monitoring works of different rail Managers, are softer and they fit better to the context of this thesis. The influence of irregularity profiles on the dynamic interaction between the train and the track is very important, especially for high-speeds of the train. Furthermore, the degradation phenomenon known as hanging sleepers, associated with transition zones, is very susceptible to the consideration of track irregularities, as it can be concluded from the long-term analysis.

Deposition reactors for solar grade silicon: a comparative thermal analysis of a Siemens reactor and a fluidized bed reactor

Polysilicon production costs contribute approximately to 25-33% of the overall cost of the solar panels and a similar fraction of the total energy invested in their fabrication. Understanding the energy losses and the behaviour of process temperature is an essential requirement as one moves forward to design and build large scale polysilicon manufacturing plants. In this paper we present thermal models for two processes for poly production, viz., the Siemens process using trichlorosilane (TCS) as precursor and the fluid bed process using silane (monosilane, MS).We validate the models with some experimental measurements on prototype laboratory reactors relating the temperature profiles to product quality. A model sensitivity analysis is also performed, and the efects of some key parameters such as reactor wall emissivity, gas distributor temperature, etc., on temperature distribution and product quality are examined. The information presented in this paper is useful for further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of both deposition technologies, and will help in optimal temperature profiling of these systems aiming at lowering production costs without compromising the solar cell quality.

A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Methods for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics from fluorescence microscopy images

La embriogénesis es el proceso mediante el cual una célula se convierte en un ser un vivo. A lo largo de diferentes etapas de desarrollo, la población de células va proliferando a la vez que el embrión va tomando forma y se configura. Esto es posible gracias a la acción de varios procesos genéticos, bioquímicos y mecánicos que interaccionan y se regulan entre ellos formando un sistema complejo que se organiza a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Este proceso ocurre de manera robusta y reproducible, pero también con cierta variabilidad que permite la diversidad de individuos de una misma especie. La aparición de la microscopía de fluorescencia, posible gracias a proteínas fluorescentes que pueden ser adheridas a las cadenas de expresión de las células, y los avances en la física óptica de los microscopios han permitido observar este proceso de embriogénesis in-vivo y generar secuencias de imágenes tridimensionales de alta resolución espacio-temporal. Estas imágenes permiten el estudio de los procesos de desarrollo embrionario con técnicas de análisis de imagen y de datos, reconstruyendo dichos procesos para crear la representación de un embrión digital. Una de las más actuales problemáticas en este campo es entender los procesos mecánicos, de manera aislada y en interacción con otros factores como la expresión genética, para que el embrión se desarrolle. Debido a la complejidad de estos procesos, estos problemas se afrontan mediante diferentes técnicas y escalas específicas donde, a través de experimentos, pueden hacerse y confrontarse hipótesis, obteniendo conclusiones sobre el funcionamiento de los mecanismos estudiados. Esta tesis doctoral se ha enfocado sobre esta problemática intentando mejorar las metodologías del estado del arte y con un objetivo específico: estudiar patrones de deformación que emergen del movimiento organizado de las células durante diferentes estados del desarrollo del embrión, de manera global o en tejidos concretos. Estudios se han centrado en la mecánica en relación con procesos de señalización o interacciones a nivel celular o de tejido. En este trabajo, se propone un esquema para generalizar el estudio del movimiento y las interacciones mecánicas que se desprenden del mismo a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Esto permitiría no sólo estudios locales, si no estudios sistemáticos de las escalas de interacción mecánica dentro de un embrión. Por tanto, el esquema propuesto obvia las causas de generación de movimiento (fuerzas) y se centra en la cuantificación de la cinemática (deformación y esfuerzos) a partir de imágenes de forma no invasiva. Hoy en día las dificultades experimentales y metodológicas y la complejidad de los sistemas biológicos impiden una descripción mecánica completa de manera sistemática. Sin embargo, patrones de deformación muestran el resultado de diferentes factores mecánicos en interacción con otros elementos dando lugar a una organización mecánica, necesaria para el desarrollo, que puede ser cuantificado a partir de la metodología propuesta en esta tesis. La metodología asume un medio continuo descrito de forma Lagrangiana (en función de las trayectorias de puntos materiales que se mueven en el sistema en lugar de puntos espaciales) de la dinámica del movimiento, estimado a partir de las imágenes mediante métodos de seguimiento de células o de técnicas de registro de imagen. Gracias a este esquema es posible describir la deformación instantánea y acumulada respecto a un estado inicial para cualquier dominio del embrión. La aplicación de esta metodología a imágenes 3D + t del pez zebra sirvió para desvelar estructuras mecánicas que tienden a estabilizarse a lo largo del tiempo en dicho embrión, y que se organizan a una escala semejante al del mapa de diferenciación celular y con indicios de correlación con patrones de expresión genética. También se aplicó la metodología al estudio del tejido amnioserosa de la Drosophila (mosca de la fruta) durante el cierre dorsal, obteniendo indicios de un acoplamiento entre escalas subcelulares, celulares y supracelulares, que genera patrones complejos en respuesta a la fuerza generada por los esqueletos de acto-myosina. En definitiva, esta tesis doctoral propone una estrategia novedosa de análisis de la dinámica celular multi-escala que permite cuantificar patrones de manera inmediata y que además ofrece una representación que reconstruye la evolución de los procesos como los ven las células, en lugar de como son observados desde el microscopio. Esta metodología por tanto permite nuevas formas de análisis y comparación de embriones y tejidos durante la embriogénesis a partir de imágenes in-vivo. ABSTRACT The embryogenesis is the process from which a single cell turns into a living organism. Through several stages of development, the cell population proliferates at the same time the embryo shapes and the organs develop gaining their functionality. This is possible through genetic, biochemical and mechanical factors that are involved in a complex interaction of processes organized in different levels and in different spatio-temporal scales. The embryogenesis, through this complexity, develops in a robust and reproducible way, but allowing variability that makes possible the diversity of living specimens. The advances in physics of microscopes and the appearance of fluorescent proteins that can be attached to expression chains, reporting about structural and functional elements of the cell, have enabled for the in-vivo observation of embryogenesis. The imaging process results in sequences of high spatio-temporal resolution 3D+time data of the embryogenesis as a digital representation of the embryos that can be further analyzed, provided new image processing and data analysis techniques are developed. One of the most relevant and challenging lines of research in the field is the quantification of the mechanical factors and processes involved in the shaping process of the embryo and their interactions with other embryogenesis factors such as genetics. Due to the complexity of the processes, studies have focused on specific problems and scales controlled in the experiments, posing and testing hypothesis to gain new biological insight. However, methodologies are often difficult to be exported to study other biological phenomena or specimens. This PhD Thesis is framed within this paradigm of research and tries to propose a systematic methodology to quantify the emergent deformation patterns from the motion estimated in in-vivo images of embryogenesis. Thanks to this strategy it would be possible to quantify not only local mechanisms, but to discover and characterize the scales of mechanical organization within the embryo. The framework focuses on the quantification of the motion kinematics (deformation and strains), neglecting the causes of the motion (forces), from images in a non-invasive way. Experimental and methodological challenges hamper the quantification of exerted forces and the mechanical properties of tissues. However, a descriptive framework of deformation patterns provides valuable insight about the organization and scales of the mechanical interactions, along the embryo development. Such a characterization would help to improve mechanical models and progressively understand the complexity of embryogenesis. This framework relies on a Lagrangian representation of the cell dynamics system based on the trajectories of points moving along the deformation. This approach of analysis enables the reconstruction of the mechanical patterning as experienced by the cells and tissues. Thus, we can build temporal profiles of deformation along stages of development, comprising both the instantaneous events and the cumulative deformation history. The application of this framework to 3D + time data of zebrafish embryogenesis allowed us to discover mechanical profiles that stabilized through time forming structures that organize in a scale comparable to the map of cell differentiation (fate map), and also suggesting correlation with genetic patterns. The framework was also applied to the analysis of the amnioserosa tissue in the drosophila’s dorsal closure, revealing that the oscillatory contraction triggered by the acto-myosin network organized complexly coupling different scales: local force generation foci, cellular morphology control mechanisms and tissue geometrical constraints. In summary, this PhD Thesis proposes a theoretical framework for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics that enables to quantify automatically mechanical patterns and also offers a new representation of the embryo dynamics as experienced by cells instead of how the microscope captures instantaneously the processes. Therefore, this framework enables for new strategies of quantitative analysis and comparison between embryos and tissues during embryogenesis from in-vivo images.

An analysis of installation of submarine pipelines

There are different methods of construction of outfall pipelines, all of them have to solve the problem of placing a tube over a known location in sea bed. This process has sometimes to be done in difficult conditions as waves, current or depths greater than 30 metres, where a diver cannot go safely beyond. Also the placement of the pipeline must be carried out without any damage to the tube, therefore a close control of the deflections and stresses in the structure must be performed. The importance of this control should be not diminished because a damage during the construction would imply a very difficult and expensive repair, that should be avoided with a proper design of the construction process. This paper is focused in the analysis of the tube during its placement according to a very well known construction method consisting in placing the tube from a boat, where all the connections between consecutive tube segments are performed, and also the whole process is controlled. This method is used for outfall as well as offshore pipelines, and it will be described in Section 2

Analysis of air flow past and through the 2415-3S airfoil for an unmanned aerial vehicle with internal propulsion system

This paper deals with the prediction of velocity fields on the 2415-3S airfoil which will be used for an unmanned aerial vehicle with internal propulsion system and in this way analyze the air flow through an internal duct of the airfoil using computational fluid dynamics. The main objective is to evaluate the effect of the internal air flow past the airfoil and how this affects the aerodynamic performance by means of lift and drag forces. For this purpose, three different designs of the internal duct were studied; starting from the base 2415-3S airfoil developed in previous investigation, basing on the hypothesis of decreasing the flow separation produced when the propulsive airflow merges the external flow, and in this way obtaining the best configuration. For that purpose, an exhaustive study of the mesh sensitivity was performed. It was used a non-structured mesh since the computational domain is three-dimensional and complex. The selected mesh contains approximately 12.5 million elements. Both the computational domain and the numerical solution were made with commercial CAD and CFD software, respectively. Air, incompressible and steady was analyzed. The boundary conditions are in concordance with experimental setup in the AF 6109 wind tunnel. The k-e model is utilized to describe the turbulent flow process as followed in references. Results allowed obtaining velocity contours as well as lift and drag coefficients and also the location of separation and reattachment regions in some cases for zero degrees of angle of attack on the internal and external surfaces of the airfoil. Finally, the selection of the configuration with the best aerodynamic performance was made, selecting the option without curved baffles.