Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.

Cryptococcosis in Atlántico, Colombia: an approximation of the prevalence of this mycosis and the distribution of the etiological agent in the environment

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Cryptococcosis is an invasive disease acquired by inhalation of infectious propagules from the environment. Currently, compulsory notification of the spread of this disease is not required in Colombia. However, reporting of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases to the National Surveillance System has suggested that there is a growing population at risk of contracting cryptococcosis. Few studies have described the occurrence of cryptococcosis in Colombia. Therefore, in this study, we examined the pathology of this disease in Atlántico, Colombia and determined the distributions of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in the environment.METHODS:Clinical samples/isolates were gathered from cases of cryptococcosis previously diagnosed at health institutions in Atlántico, and surveys were completed by clinicians. The environmental study considered 32 sampling points and three tree species, i.e., Quickstick ( Gliricidia sepium ), Almond ( Terminalia catappa ), and Pink trumpet ( Tabebuia rosea ). Environmental and clinical samples/isolates were analyzed for phenotypic and genotypic confirmation.RESULTS:From 1997-2014, 41 cases of cryptococcosis were reported. The mean patient age was 40.5 years (range: 18-63 years); 76% were men, and 78% were HIV positive. Isolation was possible in 38 cases ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI in 37 cases and C. gattii , molecular type VGI in one case). In 2012-2014, 2,068 environmental samples were analyzed with a positivity of 0.4% ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI) in Almond and Pink trumpet trees.CONCLUSIONS:Cryptococcus neoformans , molecular type VNI had a higher prevalence than C. gattii and was associated with human exposure and the pathogenesis of cryptococcosis in this geographical region.

Effectiveness of silver nitrate compared to talc slurry as pleural sclerosing agent in rabbits. Influence of concomitant intrapleural lidocaine

The ideal agent for producing pleurodesis has not been identified. Talc, the most commonly used, poses several problems. Another possibility is silver nitrate, which was widely used in the past. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of the intrapleural instillation of lidocaine in producing a pleurodesis with silver nitrate, to define the effect of lidocaine in the maturation of the collagen fibers, and to confirm that the pleurodesis after silver nitrate is stronger than after talc. METHODS: We studied three groups of 8 rabbits. Two groups received 0.5% silver nitrate; in one we had previously injected 0.5 ml of 2% lidocaine. The third group received 400 mg/kg talc (2 ml). The animals were sacrificed 28 days after the injection, and the pleural spaces were assessed grossly for evidence of pleurodesis and microscopically for evidence of inflammation and fibrosis. The total amount of pleural collagen and the distribution of thick and thin collagen fibers were quantified. Collagen was identified using picrosirius red stain. RESULTS: In the two groups that received silver nitrate (without lidocaine: 3.5 + 03 and with lidocaine: 3.2 + 0.3), the macroscopic pleurodesis (scale 0 -- 4) was significantly (p = 0.001) better than that resulting from talc (1.6 + 0.2). The mean degree of pleural fibrosis induced by silver nitrate (3.5 + 0.2) was significantly (p = 0.004) higher than that induced by talc (1.9 + 0.1). The previous instillation of lidocaine resulted in a tendency for decreased amounts of fibrosis (3.1 + 0.4). The mean amount (10³mm²) of pleural collagen was significantly (p = 0.009) greater in the rabbits that received silver nitrate (116.9 + 22.7) than in those that received talc (10.7 + 3.4). The injection of lidocaine slightly reduced the collagen (80.1 + 30.3). The distribution of collagen fibers did not differ among the groups. CONCLUSION: This rabbit model clearly confirms that intrapleural silver nitrate is more effective than talc for producing pleurodesis. The previous intrapleural instillation of lidocaine results in a decreasing trend in the amount of collagen, but does not change the effectiveness of the pleural fusion or modify the process of collagen maturation.

Proposal of a methodology for the design of the installation of turrets on aircrafts – the approach on the aerodynamic influences

The present work has its origin on the necessity of enabling a design certified company, or DOA (Design Organization Approval), to perform a modification; this modification is the installation of EO/IR (Electro-optical infrared) sensors on aircrafts. The subject of interest in this dissertation lies on the aerodynamic impact of the modification on the aircraft. The primary purpose of the present thesis is the creation of a methodology that regards the design stage of the modification. This methodology serves as guidance to the DOA design team that is assigned to the design of the modification. The methodology includes a recommendation to the certification of the modification; it contains a method intended to decide the location of the installation of the sensors on the aircraft; it also comprises of a design structure specifically adapted to the modification in study. Regarding the aerodynamic impact, it is studied the aerodynamic analysis’ tools, which allows one to relate the different stages of design to the most suited tools to each stage. A case study is performed with the purpose of not only validating the methodology which was created but also to giving a first approach to the preliminary design of the modification. As example, there are used the Lockheed Martin C-130 aircraft and the FLIR Star Safire III sensor.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

Machine diagnosis based on artificial immune systems

Nowadays, many of the manufactory and industrial system has a diagnosis system on top of it, responsible for ensuring the lifetime of the system itself. It achieves this by performing both diagnosis and error recovery procedures in real production time, on each of the individual parts of the system. There are many paradigms currently being used for diagnosis. However, they still fail to answer all the requirements imposed by the enterprises making it necessary for a different approach to take place. This happens mostly on the error recovery paradigms since the great diversity that is nowadays present in the industrial environment makes it highly unlikely for every single error to be fixed under a real time, no production stop, perspective. This work proposes a still relatively unknown paradigm to manufactory. The Artificial Immune Systems (AIS), which relies on bio-inspired algorithms, comes as a valid alternative to the ones currently being used. The proposed work is a multi-agent architecture that establishes the Artificial Immune Systems, based on bio-inspired algorithms. The main goal of this architecture is to solve for a resolution to the error currently detected by the system. The proposed architecture was tested using two different simulation environment, each meant to prove different points of views, using different tests. These tests will determine if, as the research suggests, this paradigm is a promising alternative for the industrial environment. It will also define what should be done to improve the current architecture and if it should be applied in a decentralised system.

A systematic methodology to analyse the performance and design configurations of business interoperability in cooperative industrial networks

This thesis proposes a methodology for modelling business interoperability in a context of cooperative industrial networks. The purpose is to develop a methodology that enables the design of cooperative industrial network platforms that are able to deliver business interoperability and the analysis of its impact on the performance of these platforms. To achieve the proposed objective, two modelling tools have been employed: the Axiomatic Design Theory for the design of interoperable platforms; and Agent-Based Simulation for the analysis of the impact of business interoperability. The sequence of the application of the two modelling tools depends on the scenario under analysis, i.e. whether the cooperative industrial network platform exists or not. If the cooperative industrial network platform does not exist, the methodology suggests first the application of the Axiomatic Design Theory to design different configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms, and then the use of Agent-Based Simulation to analyse or predict the business interoperability and operational performance of the designed configurations. Otherwise, one should start by analysing the performance of the existing platform and based on the achieved results, decide whether it is necessary to redesign it or not. If the redesign is needed, simulation is once again used to predict the performance of the redesigned platform. To explain how those two modelling tools can be applied in practice, a theoretical modelling framework, a theoretical Axiomatic Design model and a theoretical Agent-Based Simulation model are proposed. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and/or to validate the proposed theoretical models, a case study regarding a Portuguese Reverse Logistics cooperative network (Valorpneu network) and a case study regarding a Portuguese construction project (Dam Baixo Sabor network) are presented. The findings of the application of the proposed methodology to these two case studies suggest that indeed the Axiomatic Design Theory can effectively contribute in the design of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and that Agent-Based Simulation provides an effective set of tools for analysing the impact of business interoperability on the performance of those platforms. However, these conclusions cannot be generalised as only two case studies have been carried out. In terms of relevance to theory, this is the first time that the network effect is addressed in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of networked companies and also the first time that a holistic approach is proposed to design interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms. Regarding the practical implications, the proposed methodology is intended to provide industrial managers a management tool that can guide them easily, and in practical and systematic way, in the design of configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and/or in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of their companies and the networks where their companies operate.

Real convergence in per capita output and growth in Eurozone: A time-series approach

The real convergence hypothesis has spurred a myriad of empirical tests and approaches in the economic literature. This Work Project intends to test for real output and growth convergence in all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of output and output growth gaps of 14 Eurozone countries. This paper follows a time-series approach, as it tests for the presence of unit roots and persistence changes in the above mentioned pairs of output gaps, as well as for the existence of growth convergence with autoregressive models. Overall, significantly greater evidence has been found to support growth convergence rather than output convergence in our sample.

Nutrition for the pediatric surgical patient: approach in the peri-operative period

Nutrition is essential for maintenance of physiologic homeostasis and growth. Hypermetabolic states lead to a depletion of body stores, with decreased immunocompetence and increased morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this paper is to provide an update regarding the provision of appropriate nutrition for the pediatric surgical patient, emphasizing the preoperative and postoperative periods. Modern nutritional support for the surgical patient comprises numerous stages, including assessment of nutritional status, nutritional requirements, and nutritional therapy. Nutritional assessment is performed utilizing the clinical history, clinical examination, anthropometry, and biochemical evaluation. Anthropometric parameters include body weight, height, arm and head circumference, and skinfold thickness measurements. The biochemical evaluation is conducted using determinations of plasma levels of proteins, including album, pre-albumin, transferrin, and retinol-binding protein. These parameters are subject to error and are influenced by the rapid changes in body composition in the peri-operative period. Nutritional therapy includes enteral and/or parenteral nutrition. Enteral feeding is the first choice for nutritional therapy. If enteral feeding is not indicated, parenteral nutrition must be utilized. In all cases, an individualized, adequate diet (enteral formula or parenteral solution) is obligatory to decrease the occurrence of overfeeding and its undesirable consequences.

Conventional approach x laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection for rectal cancer treatment after neoadjuvant chemoradiation: results of a prospective randomized trial

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to evaluate the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection compared to conventional approach for surgical treatment of patients with distal rectal cancer presenting with incomplete response after chemoradiation. METHOD: Twenty eight patients with distal rectal adenocarcinoma were randomized to undergo surgical treatment by laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection or conventional approach and evaluated prospectively. Thirteen underwent laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection and 15 conventional approach. RESULTS: There was no significant difference (p<0,05) between the two studied groups regarding: gender, age, body mass index, patients with previous abdominal surgeries, intra and post operative complications, need for blood transfusion, hospital stay after surgery, length of resected segment and pathological staging. Mean operation time was 228 minutes for the laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection versus 284 minutes for the conventional approach (p=0.04). Mean anesthesia duration was shorter (p=0.03) for laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection when compared to conventional approach : 304 and 362 minutes, respectively. There was no need for conversion to open approach in this series. After a mean follow-up of 47.2 months and with the exclusion of two patients in the conventional abdominoperineal resection who presented with unsuspected synchronic metastasis during surgery, local recurrence was observed in two patients in the conventional group and in none in the laparoscopic group. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection is feasible, similar to conventional approach concerning surgery duration, intra operative morbidity, blood requirements and post operative morbidity. Larger number of cases and an extended follow-up are required to adequate evaluation of oncological results for patients undergoing laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection after chemoradiation for radical treatment of distal rectal cancer.

Assessment of a novel Cu (II) complex as a potential anticancer agent

Widely used in cancer treatment, chemotherapy still faces hindering challenges, ranging from severe induced toxicity to drug resistance acquisition. As means to overcome these setbacks, newly synthetized compounds have recently come into play with the basis of improved pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties. With this mind-set, this project aimed towards the antiproliferative potential characterization of a group of metallic compounds. Additionally the incorporation of the compounds within a nanoformulation and within new combination strategies with commercial chemotherapeutic drugs was also envisaged. Cell viability assays presented copper (II) compound (K4) as the most promising, presenting an IC50 of 6.10 μM and 19.09 μM for HCT116 and A549 cell line respectively. Exposure in fibroblasts revealed a 9.18 μM IC50. Hoechst staining assays further revealed the compound’s predisposition to induce chromatin condensation and nuclear fragmentation in HCT116 upon exposure to K4 which was later demonstrated by flow cytometry and annexin V-FITC/propidium iodide double staining analysis (under 50 % cell death induction). The compound further revealed the ability to interact with major macromolecules such as DNA (Kb = 2.17x105 M-1), inducing structural brakes and retardation, and further affecting cell cycle progression revealing delay in S-phase. Moreover BSA interactions were also visible however not conclusive. Proteome profiling revealed overexpression of proteins involved in metabolic activity and underexpression of proteins involved in apoptosis thus corroborating Hoechst and apoptosis flow cytometry data. K4 nanoformulation suffered from several hindrances and was ill succeeded in part due to K4’s poor solubility in aqueous buffers. Other approaches were considered in this regard. Combined chemotherapy assays revealed high cytotoxicity for afatinib and lapatinib strategies. Lapatinib and K4 proteome profiling further revealed high apoptosis rates, high metabolic activity and activation of redundant proteins as part of compensatory mechanisms.

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Biotransformation/separation routes to obtain pure enantiomers

The objective of the work presented in this thesis was the development of an innovative approach for the separation of enantiomers of secondary alcohols, combining the use of an ionic liquid (IL) - both as solvent for conducting enzymatic kinetic resolution and as acylating agent - with the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as solvent for extraction. Menthol was selected for testing this reaction/separation approach due to the increasing demand for this substance, which is widely used in the pharmaceutical, cosmetics and food industries. With a view to using an ionic ester as acylating agent, whose conversion led to the release of ethanol, and due to the need to remove this alcohol so as to drive reaction equilibrium forward, a phase equilibrium study was conducted for the ehtanol/(±)-menthol/CO2 system, at pressures between 8 and 10 MPa and temperatures between 40 and 50 oC. It was found that CO2 is more selective towards ethanol, especially at the lowest pressure and highest temperature tested, leading to separation factors in the range 1.6-7.6. The pressure-temperature-composition data obtained were correlated with the Peng-Robinson equation of state and the Mathias-Klotz-Prausnitz mixing rule. The model fit the experimental results well, with an average absolute deviation (AAD) of 3.7 %. The resolution of racemic menthol was studied using two lipases, namely lipase from Candida rugosa (CRL) and immobilized lipase B from Candida antarctica (CALB), and two ionic acylating esters. No reaction was detected in either case. (R,S)-1-phenylethanol was used next, and it was found that with CRL low, nonselective, conversion of the alcohol took place, whereas CALB led to an enantiomeric excess (ee) of the substrate of 95%, at 30% conversion. Other acylating agents were tested for the resolution of (±)-menthol, namely vinyl esters and acid anhydrides, using several lipases and varying other parameters that affect conversion and enantioselectivity, such as substrate concentration, solvent and temperature. One such acylating agent was propionic anhydride. It was thus performed a phase equilibrium study on the propionic anhydride/CO2 system, at temperatures between 35 and 50 oC. This study revealed that, at 35 oC and pressures from 7 MPa, the system is monophasic for all compositions. The enzymatic catalysis studies carried out with propionic anhydride revealed that the extent of noncatalyzed reaction was high, with a negative effect on enantioselectivity. These studies showed also that it was possible to reduce considerably the impact of the noncatalyzed reaction relative to the reaction catalyzed by CRL by lowering temperature to 4 oC. Vinyl decanoate was shown to lead to the best results at conditions amenable to a process combining the use of supercritical CO2 as agent for post-reaction separation. The use of vinyl decanoate in a number of IL solvents, namely [bmim][PF6], [bmim][BF4], [hmim][PF6], [omim][PF6], and [bmim][Tf2N], led to an enantiomeric excess of product (eep) values of over 96%, at about 50% conversion, using CRL. In n-hexane and supercritical CO2, reaction progressed more slowly.(...)