Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Symptoms of heat illness in surface mine workers

Objective: To assess the symptoms of heat illness experienced by surface mine workers. Methods: Ninety-one surface mine workers across three mine sites in northern Australia completed a heat stress questionnaire evaluating their symptoms for heat illness. A cohort of 56 underground mine workers also participated for comparative purposes. Participants were allocated into asymptomatic, minor or moderate heat illness categories depending on the number of symptoms they reported. Participants also reported the frequency of symptom experience, as well as their hydration status (average urine colour). Results: Heat illness symptoms were experienced by 87 and 79 % of surface and underground mine workers, respectively (p = 0.189), with 81–82 % of the symptoms reported being experienced by miners on more than one occasion. The majority (56 %) of surface workers were classified as experiencing minor heat illness symptoms, with a further 31 % classed as moderate; 13 % were asymptomatic. A similar distribution of heat illness classification was observed among underground miners (p = 0.420). Only 29 % of surface miners were considered well hydrated, with 61 % minimally dehydrated and 10 % significantly dehydrated, proportions that were similar among underground miners (p = 0.186). Heat illness category was significantly related to hydration status (p = 0.039) among surface mine workers, but only a trend was observed when data from surface and underground miners was pooled (p = 0.073). Compared to asymptomatic surface mine workers, the relative risk of experiencing minor and moderate symptoms of heat illness was 1.5 and 1.6, respectively, when minimally dehydrated. Conclusions: These findings show that surface mine workers routinely experience symptoms of heat illness and highlight that control measures are required to prevent symptoms progressing to medical cases of heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

Project 27 : insights into a production-centred study on art direction and love

This paper offers insight into the development of a PhD in advertising art direction. For over half a century art directors within the advertising industry have been adapting to the changes occurring in media, culture and the corporate sector, toward enhancing professional performance and competitiveness. These professionals seldom offer explicit justification about the role images play in effective communication. It is uncertain how this situation affects advertising performance, because advertising has, nevertheless, evolved in parallel to this as an industry able to fabricate new opportunities for itself. However, uncertainties in the formalization of art direction knowledge restrict the possibilities of knowledge transfer in higher education. The theoretical knowledge supporting advertising art direction has been adapted spontaneously from disciplines that rarely focus on specific aspects related to the production of advertising content, like, for example: marketing communication, design, visual communication, or visual art. Meanwhile, in scholarly research, vast empirical knowledge has been generated about advertising images, but often with limited insight into production expertise. Because art direction is understood as an industry practice and not as an academic discipline, an art direction perspective in scholarly contributions is rare. Scholarly research that is relevant to art direction seldom offers viewpoints to help understand how it is that research outputs may specifically contribute to art direction practices. There is a need to formally understanding the knowledge underlying art direction and using it to explore models for visual analysis and knowledge transfer in higher education. This paper provides insight into the development of a thesis that explored this need. The PhD thesis to which this paper refers is Strategic Aesthetics in Advertising Campaigns: Implications for Art Direction Education.

Do people gamble with their lives : The relationship between risky driving behaviour and other risky behaviours

General risky behaviour is explored for correlation with risky driving behaviour in light of two theories, self-control and cross-situational consistency. Identification of general risky behaviours associated with risky driving behaviour, and the theory that best predicts the behaviours, will enable better targeting of intervention and education strategies to reduce driving related fatalities and injuries. A correlational study using participants (N=152) drawn from first year university undergraduates and the public surveyed their lifestyle and behaviours. Relationships were found between risky driving behaviours and other risky behaviours such as alcohol consumption, cannabis use and performing unlawful activities. No significant differences were found between genders, with the exception that males were more likely to believe that they were at risk of injury from their employment, χ2 (1, N = 152) = 4.49, p = .03, were more likely to have performed an unlawful offence, χ2 (1, N = 152) = 11.77, p = .001 and were more likely to drink drive, t (55.41) = -3.87, p < .001, mean difference = -0.63, CI 95% (-0.9, -0.37). People engaged in risky driving behaviours were more likely to engage in other risky behaviours. The theories that were explored were unable to accurately predict an association between general risky behaviour and driving without a license or when disqualified. Cross-situational consistency explained 20% (R2adj = .16) of the variance in which people engaged in risky driving with low self-control theory explaining an additional 0.3% variance (R2change = .003), F (8,143) = 6.92, p < .001. Driving while under the influence of alcohol could be predicted by risky behaviours in lifestyle, health, smoking, cannabis use and alcohol consumption, F (8,143) = 6.92, p < .001. The addition of self-control was not significant.

Quality of life detriments through self-reported swelling associated with gynaecological cancer

Background and aims: Lower-limb lymphoedema is a serious and feared sequela after treatment for gynaecological cancer. Given the limited prospective data on incidence of and risk factors for lymphoedema after treatment for gynaecological cancer we initiated a prospective cohort study in 2008. Methods: Data were available for 353 women with malignant disease. Participants were assessed before treatment and at regular intervals after treatment for two years. Follow-up visits were grouped into time-periods of six weeks to six months (time 1), nine months to 15 months (time 2), and 18 months to 24 months (time 3). Preliminary data analyses were undertaken up to time 2 using generalised estimating equations to model the repeated measures data of Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G) quality of life (QoL) scores and self-reported swelling at each follow-up period (best-fitting covariance structure). Results: Depending on the time-period, between 30% and 40% of patients self-reported swelling of the lower limb. The QoL of those with self-reported swelling was lower at all time-periods compared with those who did not have swelling. Mean (95% CI) FACT-G scores at time 0, 1 and 2 were 80.7 (78.2, 83.2), 83.0 (81.0, 85.0) and 86.3 (84.2, 88.4), respectively for those with swelling and 85.0 (83.0, 86.9), 86.0 (84.1, 88.0) and 88.9 (87.0, 90.7), respectively for those without swelling. Conclusions: Lower-limb swelling adversely influences QoL and change in QoL over time in patients with gynaecological cancer.

Travel writing

This chapter introduces techniques that are used in travel writing to create a strong sense of place and a meaningful, engaging narrative of a journey. It raises and defines terms of modern rhetoric to show that a distinctive and enduring feature of travel writing lies in the ways it mixes modes of writing. Towards the end, the chapter offers ways of effectively unifying elements of travel writing.

The children and sunscreen study : a crossover trial investigating children's sunscreen application thickness and the influence of age and dispenser type.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the thickness at which primary schoolchildren apply sunscreen on school day mornings and to compare it with the thickness (2.00 mg/cm(2)) at which sunscreen is tested during product development, as well as to investigate how application thickness was influenced by age of the child (school grades 1-7) and by dispenser type (500-mL pump, 125-mL squeeze bottle, or 50-mL roll-on). DESIGN: A crossover quasiexperimental study design comparing 3 sunscreen dispenser types. SETTING: Children aged 5 to 12 years from public primary schools (grades 1-7) in Queensland, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Children (n=87) and their parents randomly recruited from the enrollment lists of 7 primary schools. Each child provided up to 3 observations (n=258). INTERVENTION: Children applied sunscreen during 3 consecutive school weeks (Monday through Friday) for the first application of the day using a different dispenser each week. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Thickness of sunscreen application (in milligrams per square centimeter). The dispensers were weighed before and after use to calculate the weight of sunscreen applied. This was divided by the coverage area of application (in square centimeters), which was calculated by multiplying the children's body surface area by the percentage of the body covered with sunscreen. RESULTS: Children applied their sunscreen at a median thickness of 0.48 mg/cm(2). Children applied significantly more sunscreen when using the pump (0.75 mg/cm(2)) and the squeeze bottle (0.57 mg/cm(2)) compared with the roll-on (0.22 mg/cm(2)) (P<.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of age, primary schoolchildren apply sunscreen at substantially less than 1.00 mg/cm(2), similar to what has been observed among adults. Some sunscreen dispensers seem to facilitate thicker application than others.

Quality of work life among primary health care nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia : a crosssectional study

Background: Quality of work life (QWL) is defined as the extent to which employee is satisfied with personal and working needs through participating in the workplace while achieving the organisation’s goals. QWL has been found to influence the commitment and productivity of employees in healthcare organisations, as well as in other industries. However, reliable information on the QWL of PHC nurses is limited. The purpose of this study was to assess the QWL among PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A descriptive research design, namely, a cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of quality of nursing work life (QNWL) and demographic questions. A convenience sample was recruited from 143 PHC centres in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The Jazan region is located in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. A response rate of 91% (N = 532/585) was achieved (effective RR = 87%, n = 508). Data analysis consisted of descriptive statistics, t-test and one way-analysis of variance. Total scores and sub-scores for QWL Items and item summary statistics were computed and reported, using SPSS version 17 for Windows. Results: Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life. The major influencing factors were unsuitable working hours/shifts, lack of facilities for nurses, inability to balance work with family needs, inadequacy of family-leave time, poor staffing, management and supervision practices, lack of professional development opportunities, and inappropriate working environment in terms of the level of security, patient care supplies and equipment, and recreation facilities (Break-area). Other essential factors include the community’s view of nursing and inadequate salary. More positively, the majority of nurses were satisfied with their co-workers, satisfied to be nurses and had a sense of belonging in their workplaces. Significant differences were found according to gender, age, marital status, dependent children, dependent adults, nationality, ethnicity, nursing tenure, organisational tenure, positional tenure, and payment per month. No significant differences were found according to education level and location of PHC. Conclusions: These findings can be used by PHC managers and policy makers for developing and appropriately implementing successful plans to improve the QWL. This will help to enhance the home and work environments, improve individual and organisation performance and increase nurses’ commitment.

The relationship between quality of work life and turnover intention of primary health care nurses in Saudi Arabia

Background Quality of work life (QWL) has been found to influence the commitment of health professionals including nurses. However, reliable information on the QWL and turnover intention of primary health care (PHC) nurses is limited. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between QWL and turnover intention of PHC nurses in Saudi Arabia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of Quality of Nursing Work life (QNWL), the Anticipated Turnover Scale and demographic data questions. A total of 508 PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia completed the questionnaire (RR = 87%). Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, General Linear Model (GLM) univariate analysis, standard multiple regression (SMR), and hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) were applied for analysis using SPSS v17 for Windows. Results Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life, with almost 40% indicating a turnover intention from their current PHC centres. Turnover intention was significantly related to QWL. Using SMR, 26% of the variance in turnover intention was explained by the QWL, p < 0.001, with R² = .263. Further analysis using HMR found that the total variance explained by the model as a whole (demographics and QWL) was 32.1%, p < 0.001. QWL explained an additional 19% of the variance in turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables. Conclusions Creating and maintaining a healthy work life for PHC nurses is very important to improve their work satisfaction, reduce turnover, enhance productivity and improve nursing care outcomes.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Evidence of ancient papillomavirus recombination

An open question amongst papillomavirus taxonomists is whether recombination has featured in the evolutionary history of these viruses. Since the onset of the global AIDS epidemic, the question is somewhat less academic, because immune-compromised human immunodeficiency virus patients are often co-infected with extraordinarily diverse mixtures of human papillomavirus (HPV) types. It is expected that these conditions may facilitate the emergence of HPV recombinants, some of which might have novel pathogenic properties. Here, a range of rigorous analyses is applied to full-genome sequences of papillomaviruses to provide convincing statistical and phylogenetic evidence that evolutionarily relevant papillomavirus recombination can occur. © 2006 SGM.

Evaluation of implementation of a healthy food and drink supply strategy throughout the whole school environment in Queensland state schools, Australia

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This paper reports on the evaluation of the Smart Choices healthy food and drink supply strategy for Queensland schools (Smart Choices) implementation across the whole school environment in state government primary and secondary schools in Queensland, Australia. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Three concurrent surveys using different methods for each group of stakeholders that targeted all 1275 school Principals, all 1258 Parent and Citizens’ Associations (P&Cs) and a random sample of 526 tuckshop convenors throughout Queensland. Nine hundred and seventy-three Principals, 598 P&Cs and 513 tuckshop convenors participated with response rates of 78%, 48% and 98%, respectively. RESULTS: Nearly all Principals (97%), P&Cs (99%) and tuckshop convenors (97%) reported that their school tuckshop had implemented Smart Choices. The majority of Principals and P&Cs reported implementation, respectively, in: school breakfast programs (98 and 92%); vending machine stock (94 and 83%); vending machine advertising (85 and 84%); school events (87 and 88%); school sporting events (81 and 80%); sponsorship and advertising (93 and 84%); fundraising events (80 and 84%); and sporting clubs (73 and 75%). Implementation in curriculum activities, classroom rewards and class parties was reported, respectively, by 97%, 86% and 75% of Principals. Respondents also reported very high levels of understanding of Smart Choices and engagement of the school community. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrated that food supply interventions to promote nutrition across all domains of the school environment can be implemented successfully.

NOS1AP is associated with increased severity of PTSD and depression in untreated combat veterans

Background Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive disorder are over represented in combat veterans. Veterans with both disorders have an increased risk of suicide. The nitric oxide synthase 1 adaptor protein (NOS1AP) gene, which modulates stress-evoked N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) activity, was investigated in combat veterans. Methods A comprehensive genetic analysis of NOS1AP and its association with PTSD was investigated in Vietnam combat veterans with PTSD (n=121) and a group of healthy control individuals (n=237). PTSD patients were assessed for symptom severity and level of depression using the Mississippi Scale for Combat-Related PTSD and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI). Results The G allele of NOS1AP SNP rs386231 was significantly associated with PTSD (p = 0.002). Analysis of variance revealed significant differences in BDI-II and Mississippi scores between genotypes for rs386231 with the GG genotype associated with increased severity of depression (p = 0.002 F = 6.839) and higher Mississippi Scale for Combat-Related PTSD scores (p = 0.033). Haplotype analysis revealed that the C/G haplotype (rs451275/rs386231) was significantly associated with PTSD (p = 0.001). Limitations The sample sizes in our study were not sufficient to detect SNP associations with very small effects. In addition the study was limited by its cross sectional design. Conclusions This is the first study reporting that a variant of the NOS1AP gene is associated with PTSD. Our data also suggest that a genetic variant in NOS1AP may increase the susceptibility to severe depression in patients with PTSD and increased risk for suicide.

Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.