Volatility timing : how best to forecast portfolio exposures

This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

EGFR expression as a predictor of survival for first-line chemotherapy plus cetuximab in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer : analysis of data from the phase 3 FLEX study

Background: Findings from the phase 3 First-Line ErbituX in lung cancer (FLEX) study showed that the addition of cetuximab to first-line chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival compared with chemotherapy alone (hazard ratio [HR] 0·871, 95% CI 0·762-0·996; p=0·044) in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). To define patients benefiting most from cetuximab, we studied the association of tumour EGFR expression level with clinical outcome in FLEX study patients. Methods: We used prospectively collected tumour EGFR expression data to generate an immunohistochemistry score for FLEX study patients on a continuous scale of 0-300. We used response data to select an outcome-based discriminatory threshold immunohistochemistry score for EGFR expression of 200. Treatment outcome was analysed in patients with low (immunohistochemistry score <200) and high (≥200) tumour EGFR expression. The primary endpoint in the FLEX study was overall survival. We analysed patients from the FLEX intention-to-treat (ITT) population. The FLEX study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. Findings: Tumour EGFR immunohistochemistry data were available for 1121 of 1125 (99·6%) patients from the FLEX study ITT population. High EGFR expression was scored for 345 (31%) evaluable patients and low for 776 (69%) patients. For patients in the high EGFR expression group, overall survival was longer in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group than in the chemotherapy alone group (median 12·0 months [95% CI 10·2-15·2] vs 9·6 months [7·6-10·6]; HR 0·73, 0·58-0·93; p=0·011), with no meaningful increase in side-effects. We recorded no corresponding survival benefit for patients in the low EGFR expression group (median 9·8 months [8·9-12·2] vs 10·3 months [9·2-11·5]; HR 0·99, 0·84-1·16; p=0·88). A treatment interaction test assessing the difference in the HRs for overall survival between the EGFR expression groups suggested a predictive value for EGFR expression (p=0·044). Interpretation: High EGFR expression is a tumour biomarker that can predict survival benefit from the addition of cetuximab to first-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC. Assessment of EGFR expression could offer a personalised treatment approach in this setting. Funding: Merck KGaA. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions in improving psychological outcomes for heart transplant recipients : a systematic review

Background Post-heart transplant psychological distress may both directly hinder physiological health as well as indirectly impact on clinical outcomes by increasing unhealthy behaviours, such as immunosuppression non-adherence. Reducing psychological distress for heart transplant recipients is therefore vitally important, in order to improve patients’ overall health and well-being but also clinical outcomes, such as morbidity and mortality. Evidence from other populations suggests that non-pharmacological interventions may be an effective strategy. Aim To appraise the efficacy of non-pharmacological interventions on psychological outcomes after heart transplant. Method A systematic review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology. Experimental and quasi-experimental studies that involved any non-pharmacological intervention for heart transplant recipients were included, provided that data on psychological outcomes were reported. Multiple electronic databases were searched for published and unpublished studies and reference lists of retrieved studies were scrutinized for further primary research. Data were extracted using a standardised data extraction tool. Included studies were assessed by two independent reviewers using standardised critical appraisal instruments. Results Three studies fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria, which involved only 125 heart transplant recipients. Two studies reported on exercise programs. One study reported a web-based psychosocial intervention. While psychological outcomes significantly improved from baseline to follow-up for the recipients who received the interventions, between-group comparisons were not reported. The methodological quality of the studies was judged to be poor. Conclusions Further research is required, as we found there is insufficient evidence available to draw conclusions for or against the use of non-pharmacological interventions after heart transplant.

Identifying belief targets to increase bone marrow registry participation among students who have never donated blood

New members on bone marrow registries worldwide are needed to allow sufficient diversity in the donor pool to meet patient needs. We used the theory of planned behaviour belief-basis and surveyed students who had not donated blood previously (i.e. non-donors) (N = 150) about the behavioural, normative, and control beliefs informing their intentions to join the Australian Bone Marrow Donor Registry. Key beliefs predicting non-donors’ intentions included: viewing bone marrow donation as an invasion of the body (β = −.35), normative support from parents (β = .40), anticipating pain/side effects from giving blood (β = −.27), and lack of knowledge about how to register (β  = −.30). Few non-donors endorsed these beliefs, suggesting they are ideal targets for change in strategies encouraging bone marrow donor registration.

The Yd2 resistance to barley yellow dwarf virus is effective in barley plants but not in their leaf protoplasts

The Yd2 gene for “resistance” to barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) has been widely used in barley (Hordeum vulgare). We have tested Australian isolates of BYDV of varying severity against barley genotypes with and without the Yd2 gene and report here a positive relationship between symptoms and virus levels determined by ELISA. Cultivar Shannon is the result of backcrossing the resistant line CI 3208 to cultivar Proctor, a susceptible line. It appears to be intermediate in reaction to BYDV between Proctor and CI 3208, although it carries the major gene, Yd2. Unlike the whole plant studies, no significant differences were observed with regard to the ability of protoplasts derived from these various genotypes to support BYDV replication. It is therefore demonstrated for the first time that the Yd2 gene is not among the small number of resistance genes which are effective against virus replication in isolated protoplasts.

Friendships in the early years

Having a best friend or close friend is closely connected to children’s health and well being in the early years. Having friends safeguards children from social isolation and is associated with academic attainment and social success. In early childhood, children often make friends through play or other shared activities. This chapter investigates friendships and children’s well being in the early years of schooling. Drawing on direct accounts and representations from interviews with young children about friendships, the chapter outlines characteristics of friendship and strategies children use to make friends and manage disputes as they negotiate roles in play and shared spaces. Three key dimensions of friendship are evident in the children’s accounts: friendship is enduring, friendship is mutual and friendship involves an emotional investment. This chapter provides educators with an understanding of the important role that friendships have for happiness and wellbeing in the early years.

A parcel-scale assessment tool to measure sustainability through urban ecosystem components : the MUSIX model

In recent years a number of urban sustainability assessment frameworks are developed to better inform policy formulation and decision-making processes. This paper introduces one of these attempts in developing a comprehensive assessment tool—i.e., Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX). Being an indicator-based indexing model, MUSIX investigates the environmental impacts of land-uses on urban sustainability by measuring urban ecosystem components in local scale. The paper presents the methodology of MUSIX and demonstrates the performance of the model in a pilot test-bed—i.e., in Gold Coast, Australia. The model provides useful insights on the sustainability performance of the test-bed area. The parcel-scale findings of the indicators are used to identify local problems considering six main issues of urban development—i.e., hydrology; ecology; pollution; location; design, and; efficiency. The composite index score is used to propose betterment strategies to guide the development of local area plans in conjunction with the City's Planning Scheme. In overall, this study has shown that parcel-scale environmental data provides an overview of the local sustainability in urban areas as in the example of Gold Coast, which can also be used for setting environmental policy, objectives and targets.

A Review On The Production Of Levulinic Acid And Furanics From Sugars

Sugarcane products represent an abundant and relatively low cost carbon resource that can be utilised to produce chemical intermediates such as levulinic acid and furanics. These chemicals can be easily upgraded to commodity and specialty chemicals and biofuels by high yielding and well established technologies. However, there are challenges and technical hurdles that need to be overcome before these chemical intermediates can be cost-effectively produced in commercial quantities. The paper reviews production of levulinic acid and furanics from sugars by homogeneous mineral acid catalysts, and reports on preliminary studies on the production of these compounds with environmentally friendly biodegradable sulfonic acids. The yields (>50% of theoretical) of levulinic acid, formic acid and furfural obtained with these organic acids are comparable to that of sulphuric acid currently used for their production.

Toxic state–corporate crimes, Neo-liberalism and green criminology : the hazards and legacies of the oil, chemical and mineral industries

This paper uses examples from the history and practices of multi-national and large companies in the oil, chemical and asbestos industries to examine their legal and illegal despoiling and destruction of the environment and impact on human and non-human life. The discussion draws on the literature on green criminology and state-corporate crime and considers measures and arrangements that might mitigate or prevent such damaging acts. This paper is part of ongoing work on green criminology and crimes of the economy. It places these actions and crimes in the context of a global neo-liberal economic system and considers and critiques the distorting impact of the GDP model of ‘economic health’ and its consequences for the environment.

Engraftment outcomes after HPC co-culture with mesenchymal stromal cells and osteoblasts

Haematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplantation is an established cell-based therapy for a number of haematological diseases. To enhance this therapy, there is considerable interest in expanding HSCs in artificial niches prior to transplantation. This study compared murine HSC expansion supported through co-culture on monolayers of either undifferentiated mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) or osteoblasts. Sorted Lineage− Sca-1+ c-kit+ (LSK) haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HPC) demonstrated proliferative capacity on both stromal monolayers with the greatest expansion of LSK shown in cultures supported by osteoblast monolayers. After transplantation, both types of bulk-expanded cultures were capable of engrafting and repopulating lethally irradiated primary and secondary murine recipients. LSKs co-cultured on MSCs showed comparable, but not superior, reconstitution ability to that of freshly isolated LSKs. Surprisingly, however, osteoblast co-cultured LSKs showed significantly poorer haematopoietic reconstitution compared to LSKs co-cultured on MSCs, likely due to a delay in short-term reconstitution. We demonstrated that stromal monolayers can be used to maintain, but not expand, functional HSCs without a need for additional haematopoietic growth factors. We also demonstrated that despite apparently superior in vitro performance, co-injection of bulk cultures of osteoblasts and LSKs in vivo was detrimental to recipient survival and should be avoided in translation to clinical practice.

Simulations of the spontaneous emission of a quantum dot near a gap plasmon waveguide

In this paper we modeled a quantum dot at near proximity to a gap plasmon waveguide to study the quantum dot-plasmon interactions. Assuming that the waveguide is single mode, this paper is concerned about the dependence of spontaneous emission rate of the quantum dot on waveguide dimensions such as width and height. We compare coupling efficiency of a gap waveguide with symmetric configuration and asymmetric configuration illustrating that symmetric waveguide has a better coupling efficiency to the quantum dot. We also demonstrate that optimally placed quantum dot near a symmetric waveguide with 50 nm x 50 nm cross section can capture 80% of the spontaneous emission into a guided plasmon mode.

Should I stay or should I go? The challenges and opportunities of moving between university systems

The scientific job market has evolved to a truly globalized market. This is epitomized not only by the English language being the de facto scientific language but also by the increasing share of native language journals that are being offered in multiple languages or have or will fully converted to English (such as, for example, the BISE journal in 2015). Similarly, a plethora of exchange programs exists that allow students and academic staff to visit other institutions and exchange knowledge, ideas, and learning opportunities. While student migration across scientific institutions is an established phenomenon (Gribble, 2008) with ample structures, policies, and schemes such as ERASMUS1 in place, academic staff migration between countries is still a challenge, even if exchange programs exist (Enders, 1998). One reason may be that different career paths, varying teaching loads and different evaluation schemes for what constitutes scientific excellence are notable. This also influences the decision of where to start and continue an academic career. While the university systems themselves have been examined previously (Galliers and Whitley, 2007; Lyytinen et al., 2007) and while there is knowledge about career requirements in different university systems (Dennis et al., 2006; Dean et al., 2011; Loos et al., 2013; Recker, 2013), we still do not know much about individual and contextual decisions of academics that either consider or execute a migration between university systems.

A preliminary study into the environmental and economic consequences of a sugar factory depithing operation

Bagasse stockpile operations have the potential to lead to adverse environmental and social impacts. Dust releases can cause occupational health and safety concerns for factory workers and dust emissions impact on the surrounding community. Preliminary modelling showed that bagasse depithing would likely reduce the environmental risks, particularly dust emissions, associated with large-scale bagasse stockpiling operations. Dust emission properties were measured and used for dispersion modelling with favourable outcomes. Modelling showed a 70% reduction in peak ground level concentrations of PM10 dust (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) from operations on depithed bagasse stockpiles compared to similar operations on stockpiles of whole bagasse. However, the costs of a depithing operation at a sugar factory were estimated to be approximately $2.1 million in capital expenditure to process 100 000 t/y of bagasse and operating costs were 200 000 p.a. The total capital cost for a 10 000 t/y operation was approximately $1.6 million. The cost of depithing based on a discounted cash flow analysis was $5.50 per tonne of bagasse for the 100 000 t/y scenario. This may make depithing prohibitively expensive in many situations if installed exclusively as a dust control measure.